Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Detecting migrants in populations of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 from potato in North Carolina using multilocus genotype probabilities

The relative contribution of migration of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) on infested potato seed tubers originating from production areas in Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin (source population) to the genetic diversity and structure of populations of R. solani AG-3 in North Carolina (NC) soil (recipient population) was examined. The frequency of alleles detected by multilocus polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms, heterozygosity at individual loci, and gametic phase disequilibrium between all pairs of loci were determined for subpopulations of R. solani AG-3 from eight sources of potato seed tubers and from five soils in NC. Analysis of molecular variation revealed little variation between seed source and NC recipient soil populations or between subpopulations within each region. Analysis of population data with a Bayesian-based statistical method previously developed for detecting migration in human populations suggested that six multilocus genotypes from the NC soil population had a statistically significant probability of being migrants from the northern source population. The one-way (unidirectional) migration of genotypes of R. solani AG-3 into NC on infested potato seed tubers from Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin provides a plausible explanation for the lack of genetic subdivision (differentiation) between populations of the pathogen in NC soils or between the northern source and the NC recipient soil populations.

Secretion of middle ear in infants - Occurrence, recurrence and related factors

Objective: The present study aimed at evaluating the occurrence and recurrence of middle ear effusion and possible associated factors in the first two years of life of 190 newborns and infants, participants in the interdisciplinary prevention, detection, and intervention program at the Clínica de Educação para Saúde of Universidade do Sagrado Coração, Methods: Newborns and infants were monthly submitted to anamneses, otoscopy, behavioral hearing assessment using sound instruments and pure tones (pediatric audiometry) and tympanometry. Results: The results revealed that 68.4% of infants presented one or more episodes of middle ear effusion during their two first years, with more recurrence among males. Peak occurrence was between four and 12 months of age and, the earlier the first episode, the higher the probability of recurrence. Greatest incidence was during May and August. It was found that, of the variables investigated, the period of exclusive breastfeeding actuated as a protector factor. With respect of risk factors, it was observed that passive smoking, gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory allergy were related with the recurrences of effusion. Conclusion: Findings revealed the importance of periodic auditory follow-up for infants during their first two years of life, considered to be the critical period of auditory system maturation, during which sensory deprivation can be responsible for damage to the development of speech, language and other auditory abilities. Copyright © 2005 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.

Puncture wounds by driftwood catfish during bucket baths: Local habits of riverside people and fish natural history in the Amazon

Objective. - To assess the prevalence of stings by small spiny driftwood catfish (carataí) of the genus Centromochlus (Auchenipteridae) accidentally caught in buckets during bucket bathing by riverside people along the Brazilian Amazon and to determine the probability of catching specimens of these fish during random throws of a bucket into the river. Methods. - We interviewed 27 adult residents living at the confluence of the Negro and Solimões rivers in Brazil regarding whether or not they had ever been stung by driftwood catfish while bucket bathing. To assess the likelihood of catching catfish in bathing buckets, we randomly threw a typical plastic bucket used for bathing in 4 series of 10 throws into the river at dusk or night around a floating house. Results. - Seventeen of the 27 subjects (63%) reported being injured by driftwood catfish during bucket bathing. Three individuals (17.6%) had been injured 2 to 3 times, totaling 23 puncture accidents. All stings occurred at dusk or early night. In the 4 series of 10 bucket throws, we caught 3 driftwood catfish (in 1 series we did not catch any fish). Thus, the chance of catching a driftwood catfish in a single bucket throw at dusk was slightly less than 10%. Conclusions. - The prevalence of stings by driftwood catfish to people bucket bathing in this section of the Brazilian Amazon is high, partly because of the relatively high chances of catching these small catfish during random throws of a bathing bucket into the river.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder: Influence of age at onset on comorbidity patterns

Purpose: This study investigates the influence of age at onset of OCS on psychiatric comorbidities, and tries to establish a cut-off point for age at onset. Methods: Three hundred and thirty OCD patients were consecutively recruited and interviewed using the following structured interviews: Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale; Yale Global Tic Severity Scale and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Data were analyzed with regression and cluster analysis. Results: Lower age at onset was associated with a higher probability of having comorbidity with tic, anxiety, somatoform, eating and impulse-control disorders. Longer illness duration was associated with lower chance of having tics. Female gender was associated with anxiety, eating and impulse-control disorders. Tic disorders were associated with anxiety disorders and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. No cut-off age at onset was found to clearly divide the sample in homogeneous subgroups. However, cluster analyses revealed that differences started to emerge at the age of 10 and were more pronounced at the age of 17, suggesting that these were the best cut-off points on this sample. Conclusions: Age at onset is associated with specific comorbidity patterns in OCD patients. More prominent differences are obtained when analyzing age at onset as an absolute value. © 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Specialist tool for monitoring the measurement degradation process of induction active energy meters

This paper presents a methodology and a specialist tool for failure probability analysis of induction type watt-hour meters, considering the main variables related to their measurement degradation processes. The database of the metering park of a distribution company, named Elektro Electricity and Services Co., was used for determining the most relevant variables and to feed the data in the software. The modeling developed to calculate the watt-hour meters probability of failure was implemented in a tool through a user friendly platform, written in Delphi language. Among the main features of this tool are: analysis of probability of failure by risk range; geographical localization of the meters in the metering park, and automatic sampling of induction type watt-hour meters, based on a risk classification expert system, in order to obtain information to aid the management of these meters. The main goals of the specialist tool are following and managing the measurement degradation, maintenance and replacement processes for induction watt-hour meters. © 2011 IEEE.

Wireless mesh networks planning based on parameters of quality of service

The use of QoS parameters to evaluate the quality of service in a mesh network is essential mainly when providing multimedia services. This paper proposes an algorithm for planning wireless mesh networks in order to satisfy some QoS parameters, given a set of test points (TPs) and potential access points (APs). Examples of QoS parameters include: probability of packet loss and mean delay in responding to a request. The proposed algorithm uses a Mathematical Programming model to determine an adequate topology for the network and Monte Carlo simulation to verify whether the QoS parameters are being satisfied. The results obtained show that the proposed algorithm is able to find satisfactory solutions.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Long-term outcome of patients followed by nephrologists after an acute tubular necrosis episode

Aims of our study were to describe the long-term survival in patients surviving an acute tubular necrosis (ATN) episode and determine factors associated with late mortality. We performed a prospective cohort study that evaluated the long-term outcome of 212 patients surviving an ATN episode. Mortality at the end of followup was 24.5%, and the probability of these patients being alive 5 years after discharge was 55%. During the followup, 4.7% of patients needed chronic dialysis. Univariate analysis showed that previous CKD (P = 0.0079), cardiovascular disease (P = 0.019), age greater than 60 years (P < 0.0001), and higher SCr baseline (P = 0.001), after 12 months (P = 0.0015) and 36 months (P = 0.004), were predictors of long-term mortality. In multivariate analysis, older age (HR = 6.4, CI 95% = 1.2-34.5, P = 0.02) and higher SCr after 12 months (HR = 2.1, 95% CI 95% = 1.14-4.1, P = 0.017) were identified as risk factors associated with late mortality. In conclusion, 55% of patients surviving an ATN episode were still alive, and less than 5% required chronic dialysis 60 months later; older age and increased Scr after 12 months were identified as risk factors associated with late death. © 2012 G. A. Brito et al.

Impacts of enemy-mediated effects and the additivity of interactions in an insect trophic system

In this study, we used data from both experiments and mathematical simulations to analyze the consequences of the interacting effects of intraguild predation (IGP), cannibalism and parasitism occurring in isolation and simultaneously in trophic interactions involving two blowfly species under shared parasitism. We conducted experiments to determine the short-term response of two blowfly species to these interactions with respect to their persistence. A mathematical model was employed to extend the results obtained from these experiments to the long-term consequences of these interactions for the persistence of the blowfly species. Our experimental results revealed that IGP attenuated the strength of the effects of cannibalism and parasitism between blowfly host species, increasing the probability of persistence of both populations. The simulations obtained from the mathematical model indicated that IGP is a key interaction for the long-term dynamics of this system. The presence of different species interacting in a tri-trophic system relaxed the severity of the effects of a particular interaction between two species, changing species abundances and promoting persistence through time. This pattern was related to indirect interactions with a third species, the parasitoid species included in this study. © 2012 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan.

The financial protection impact of the public health system and private insurance in Brazil

Includes bibliography

Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Dendrobranchiata, Penaeidae) in south-eastern Brazil

The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic matter content and sediment grain size were measured at each site. Specimens were quantified and sexed, their carapace length measured and their gonads were classified according to the stage of maturation. A von Bertalanffy model was used to estimate the individual growth, and longevity was calculated using its inverted formula. In total, 6 470 individuals were examined and the number of males and females differed significantly in favour of females. During some periods, the segregation could be related to the reproductive period. Reproductive females were captured throughout the sampled period, and there were biannual peaks that were followed by peaks of juveniles. Carapace growth was less for males than for females, which is likely related to oocyte production and the higher fecundity of the females. The higher probability of female capture can be related to their longer foraging to sustain the enhanced food requirement during the ovarian maturation period. © 2013 Copyright NISC (Pty) Ltd.

Demographic bottlenecks in tropical plant regeneration: A comparative analysis of causal influences

Mortality factors that act sequentially through the demographic transitions from seed to sapling may have critical effects on recruitment success. Understanding how habitat heterogeneity influences the causal factors that limit propagule establishment in natural populations is central to assess these demographic bottlenecks and their consequences. Bamboos often influence forest structure and dynamics and are a major factor in generating landscape complexity and habitat heterogeneity in tropical forests. To understand how patch heterogeneity influences plant recruitment we studied critical establishment stages during early recruitment of Euterpe edulis, Sloanea guianensis and Virola bicuhyba in bamboo and non-bamboo stands in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We combined observational studies of seed rain and seedling emergence with seed addition experiments to evaluate the transition probabilities among regeneration stages within bamboo and non-bamboo stands. The relative importance of each mortality factor was evaluated by determining how the loss of propagules affected stage-specific recruitment success. Our results revealed that the seed addition treatment significantly increased seedling survivorship for all three species. E. edulis seedling survival probability increased in the addition treatment in the two stand types. However, for S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba this effect depended strongly on artificially protecting the seeds, as both species experienced increased seed and seedling losses due to post-dispersal seed predators and herbivores. Propagules of all three species had a greater probability of reaching subsequent recruitment stages when protected. The recruitment of large-seeded V. bicuhyba and E. edulis appears to be much more limited by post-dispersal factors than by dispersal limitation, whereas the small-seeded S. guianensis showed an even stronger effect of post-dispersal factors causing recruitment collapse in some situations. We demonstrated that E. edulis, S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba are especially susceptible to predation during early compared with later establishment stages and this early stage mortality can be more crucial than stand differences as determinants of successful regeneration. Among-species differences in the relative importance of dispersal vs. establishment limitation are mediated by variability in species responses to patch heterogeneity. Thus, bamboo effects on the early recruitment of non-bamboo species are patchy and species-specific, with successional bamboo patches exerting a far-reaching influence on the heterogeneity of plant species composition and abundance. © 2012 Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.

Frequency of estrus in santa inês, texel and ile de france ewes in the northwest of Paraná state, Brazil

The incidence of estrus in nulliparous Santa Inês (n = 16), Texel (n = 16) and Ile de France (n = 15) ewes fed two levels of crude protein (CP, 12 or 16%) was monitored from July 2005 to December 2006, and seasonality in the Santa Inês breed in the south of Brazil was characterized. The solar radiation data were recorded daily, and samples of blood were collected biweekly for determination of the plasma concentration of progesterone in Santa Inês lambs at, on average, 11±1 months of age. The female Santa Inês lambs, in the experimental period, stayed among teaser rams with a powdered-dye-ink mixture placed on their chest to mark the females that accepted to be mounted. Santa Inês ewes did not manifest estrus in the firstfortnightofNovemberandinDecember2005,norinthelastfortnightofDecember2006.Estrusactivitywasnotobservedon any of the three breeds in October 2006. Breeds differed at the level of 12% CP. Santa Inês and Ile de France females did not differ as for the probability estrus manifestation and both presented higher probabilities then Texel. When the effect of 12 or 16% CP on each breed was evaluated separately, it was verifiedthatlevelsof12or16%ofcrudeproteindidnotchangethe probability of estrus manifestation in any of the studied breeds. The concentration of plasma progesterone inSanta Inês ewes during the spring of 2005 and 2006 indicated that there is difference between 12% CP (0.68±1.32 ng/mL) and 16% CP (1.28±1.99 ng/mL) and between the years 2005 (0.39±0.78 ng/mL) and 2006 (1.47±2.08 ng/mL), demonstrating the anestrous seasonality of Santa Inês in South Brazil. © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Zootecnia.