Demand and supply: price elasticities and corporate performance in the UK

This paper investigates the relationship between consumer demand and corporate performance in several consumer industries in the UK, using two independent datasets. It uses data on consumer expenditures and the retail price index to estimate Almost Ideal Demand Systems on micro-data and compute timevarying price elasticities of demand for disaggregated commodity groups. Then, it matches the product definitions to the Standard Industry Classification and uses the estimated elasticities to investigate the impact of consumer behaviour on firm-level profitability equations. The time-varying household characteristics are ideal instruments for the demand effects in the firms' supply equation. The paper concludes that demand elasticities have a significant and tangible impact on the profitability of UK firms and that this impact can shed some light on the relationship between market structure and economic performance.

Macroeconomic announcements, price discovery, and order flow efects in the stock market: evidence from incomplete data and multiple financial markets

This paper investigates heterogeneity in the market assessment of public macro- economic announcements by exploring (jointly) two main mechanisms through which macroeconomic news might enter stock prices: instantaneous fundamental news im- pacts consistent with the asset pricing view of symmetric information, and permanent order ow e¤ects consistent with a microstructure view of asymmetric information related to heterogeneous interpretation of public news. Theoretical motivation and empirical evidence for the operation of both mechanisms are presented. Signi cant in- stantaneous news impacts are detected for news related to real activity (including em- ployment), investment, in ation, and monetary policy; however, signi cant order ow e¤ects are also observed on employment announcement days. A multi-market analysis suggests that these asymmetric information e¤ects come from uncertainty about long term interest rates due to heterogeneous assessments of future Fed responses to em- ployment shocks.

Bias and size effects of price-comparison search engines : theory and experimental evidence

We analyze the impact on consumer prices of the size and bias of price comparison search engines. In the context of a model related to Burdett and Judd (1983) and Varian (1980), we develop and test experimentally several theoretical predictions. The experimental results confirm the model’s predictions regarding the impact of the number of firms, and the type of bias of the search engine, but reject the model’s predictions regarding changes in the size of the index. The explanatory power of an econometric model for the price distributions is significantly improved when variables accounting for risk attitudes are introduced.

Discrimination in the workforce: how it impacts a business

Discrimination, in its best form, is a hard concept to fathom as an employee or ordinary citizen. In the workplace, there are times when discrimination is necessary due to extenuating circumstances that revolve around the form or act of discrimination. It could be conveyed to save a life or avoid future conflict. However, it must be clearly stated as a written law that the act is lawful. When unlawful discrimination occurs, it stages an entirely different tone, as it is mainly conducted out of malice, hatred, greed, control, or ignorance. Over the last few decades, discrimination has existed in the workplace, although Federal laws mandate that it does not occur. It does not exist in just one geographical area or is country specific, but covers a wide spectrum, linking countries together from their points of view to creating rifts amongst those who are affected and those who are not, not only from a business perspective, but social humanistic relationships as well. This thesis will use quantitative and qualitative data to support discrimination of sexual harassment, race or color, and gender issues, as well as personal experiences, and how it has and will continue to impact businesses if the acts do not cease, permanently. Leadership, from the Presidents and Heads of Countries, Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), managers, lowest-ranking supervisor, and employees should make it their personal goal to ensure these issues do not continue or arise in their perspective areas of responsibilities. When employees understand that they are valued, will be taken seriously when reporting acts of discrimination, and that some form of action will be taken, performance and productivity will escalate, and morale will increase in the workplace, resulting in higher productivity and subsequently higher profit margins for the company.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Price discovery using a regime-sensitive cointegration approach

This work proposes a method to examine variations in the cointegration relation between preferred and common stocks in the Brazilian stock market via Markovian regime switches. It aims on contributing for future works in "pairs trading" and, more specifically, to price discovery, given that, conditional on the state, the system is assumed stationary. This implies there exists a (conditional) moving average representation from which measures of "information share" (IS) could be extracted. For identification purposes, the Markov error correction model is estimated within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Inference and capability of detecting regime changes are shown using a Montecarlo experiment. I also highlight the necessity of modeling financial effects of high frequency data for reliable inference.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Asymetric price adjustment and loss aversion

Ajuste assimétrico de preço é observado em diversos mercados, notavelmente varejo de gasolina: um aumento de custo é passado para os consumidores mais rápido do que uma redução. Eu desenvolvo um modelo de busca dos consumidores que gera essa predição sob aversão à perda. Uma fração dos consumidores ignora os preços no mercado e pode adquirir informação a um custo, o que permite que as firmas tenham lucro com dispersão de preços. Ajuste assimétrico de preço emerge se os consumidores são aversos a perdas em relação a um preço de referência. Custos mais altos tornam os consumidores mais dispostos a procurar, mas também diminui as chances de encontrar preços baixos, gerando uma relação custo-preço convexa.

The price of threat: the role of identity-safe marketplaces in predicting intergroup price sensitivity

In field experiments with subjects living either inside or outside Brazilian slums (n=955), we show that consumers living in slums are less price sensitive, in opposition with recent price sensitivity research. Comparing slum and non-slum dwellers, we found that negatively stereotyped consumers (e.g. slum dwellers) were more likely to pay higher amounts for friendlier customer service when facing social identity threats (SITs) in marketplaces such as banks. The mechanism which makes them less price sensitive is related to the perception of how other people evaluate their social groups, and we argue that they pay more because they are seeking identity-safe commercial relationships. This work, besides extending the literature in SITs, presents a perspective for the exchange between economics and psychology on price sensitivity, showing that consumers living in slums are willing to pay more to avoid possibly social identity threating experiences.

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

Discrimination of geomorphic surfaces with multivariate analysis of soil attributes in sandstone - basalt lithosequence

O conceito de superfície geomórfica permite uma interligação entre os diferentes ramos da ciência do solo, tais como geologia, geomorfologia e pedologia. Esta associação favorece a compreensão da distribuição espacial dos solos na paisagem, e torna possível compreender o comportamento dos atributos do solo, que estão principalmente relacionadas com a estratigrafia e formas do relevo. Assim, este estudo visa à aplicação da estatística multivariada para categorizar superfícies geomórficas em uma litossequência arenito-basalto, de modo a fornecer uma base para a avaliação do solo em áreas afins. A área de estudo está localizada no município de Pereira Barreto, São Paulo, Brasil. A área escolhida possui 530 hectares, onde foram localizadas e mapeadas três superfícies geomórficas (I, II e III). Na área, 134 amostras foram coletadas nas profundidades de 0,0-0,2 m e 0,8-1,0 m, foram determinados os conteúdos de areia, silte e argila, pH em CaCl2, conteúdo de MO, P, Ca, Mg, K, Al e H+Al. Com base nos resultados, foram realizadas a análise univariada e multivariada de variância, clusters e principal componente, a fim de comparar as três superfícies geomórficas. A análise estatística univariada dos atributos do solo não foi eficiente na identificação das três superfícies geomórficas. Utilizando-se os atributos físicos e químicos do solo, as técnicas estatísticas multivariada permitiram à separação dos três grupos de corpos naturais do solo que foram equivalentes as três superfícies geomórficas mapeadas. Estes resultados são interessantes, pois demonstram a viabilidade da utilização de classificação numérica das superfícies geomórficas para ajudar no mapeamento de solo.