973 resultados para Prediction theory


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The phenomenon which dialogism addresses is human interaction. It enables us to conceptualise human interaction as intersubjective, symbolic, cultural, transformative and conflictual, in short, as complex. The complexity of human interaction is evident in all domains of human life, for example, in therapy, education, health intervention, communication, and coordination at all levels. A dialogical approach starts by acknowledging that the social world is perspectival, that people and groups inhabit different social realities. This book stands apart from the proliferation of recent books on dialogism, because rather than applying dialogism to this or that domain, the present volume focuses on dialogicality itself to interrogate the concepts and methods which are taken for granted in the burgeoning literature.

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Introduction: Ten years after the publication of Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory, there is now substantial research into its key predictions. The distinction between intrusive thoughts, which are driven by automatic processes, and their elaboration, involving controlled processing, is well established. Desires for both addictive substances and other desired targets are typically marked by imagery, especially when they are intense. Attention training strategies such as body scanning reduce intrusive thoughts, while concurrent tasks that introduce competing sensory information interfere with elaboration, especially if they compete for the same limited-capacity working memory resources. Conclusion: EI Theory has spawned new assessment instruments that are performing strongly and offer the ability to more clearly delineate craving from correlated processes. It has also inspired new approaches to treatment. In particular, training people to use vivid sensory imagery for functional goals holds promise as an intervention for substance misuse, since it is likely to both sustain motivation and moderate craving.

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Background and Aims Research into craving is hampered by lack of theoretical specification and a plethora of substance-specific measures. This study aimed to develop a generic measure of craving based on elaborated intrusion (EI) theory. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) examined whether a generic measure replicated the three-factor structure of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) scale over different consummatory targets and time-frames. Design Twelve studies were pooled for CFA. Targets included alcohol, cigarettes, chocolate and food. Focal periods varied from the present moment to the previous week. Separate analyses were conducted for strength and frequency forms. Setting Nine studies included university students, with single studies drawn from an internet survey, a community sample of smokers and alcohol-dependent out-patients. Participants A heterogeneous sample of 1230 participants. Measurements Adaptations of the ACE questionnaire. Findings Both craving strength [comparative fit indices (CFI = 0.974; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.039, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.035–0.044] and frequency (CFI = 0.971, RMSEA = 0.049, 95% CI = 0.044–0.055) gave an acceptable three-factor solution across desired targets that mapped onto the structure of the original ACE (intensity, imagery, intrusiveness), after removing an item, re-allocating another and taking intercorrelated error terms into account. Similar structures were obtained across time-frames and targets. Preliminary validity data on the resulting 10-item Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) for cigarettes and alcohol were strong. Conclusions The Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) is a brief, conceptually grounded and psychometrically sound measure of desires. It demonstrates a consistent factor structure across a range of consummatory targets in both laboratory and clinical contexts.

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We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

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We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.

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We propose and mathematically examine a theory of calcium profile formation in unwounded mammalian epidermis based on: changes in keratinocyte proliferation, fluid and calcium exchange with the extracellular fluid during these cells' passage through the epidermal sublayers, and the barrier functions of both the stratum corneum and tight junctions localised in the stratum granulosum. Using this theory, we develop a mathematical model that predicts epidermal sublayer transit times, partitioning of the epidermal calcium gradient between intracellular and extracellular domains, and the permeability of the tight junction barrier to calcium ions. Comparison of our model's predictions of epidermal transit times with experimental data indicates that keratinocytes lose at least 87% of their volume during their disintegration to become corneocytes. Intracellular calcium is suggested as the main contributor to the epidermal calcium gradient, with its distribution actively regulated by a phenotypic switch in calcium exchange between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid present at the boundary between the stratum spinosum and the stratum granulosum. Formation of the extracellular calcium distribution, which rises in concentration through the stratum granulosum towards the skin surface, is attributed to a tight junction barrier in this sublayer possessing permeability to calcium ions that is less than 15 nm/s in human epidermis and less than 37 nm/s in murine epidermis. Future experimental work may refine the presented theory and reduce the mathematical uncertainty present in the model predictions.

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This study investigates the effects of trait anxiety on self-reported driving behaviours through its negative impacts on Central Executive functions. Following a self-report study that found trait anxiety to be significantly related to driving behaviours, the present study extended the predictions of Eysenck and Calvo’s Attentional Control Theory, proposing that anxiety affects driving behaviours, in particular driving lapses, through its impact across the Central Executive. Seventy-five Australian drivers participated in the study, completing the Parametric Go/No-Go and n-back tasks, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire. While both trait anxiety and processing efficiency of the Central Executive was found to significantly predict driving lapses, trait anxiety remained a strong predictor of driving lapses after processing efficiency was controlled for. It is concluded that while processing efficiency of the central Executive is a key determinant of driving lapses, another Central Executive function that is closer to the driving lapses in the trait anxiety – driving lapses relationship may be needed. Suggestions regarding how to improve future trait anxiety – driving behaviours research are discussed.

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Process modeling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organization’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about the operations of businesses. Still, despite current interest in process modeling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modeling in organizational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modeling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that a technical object offers to a user. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. The purpose of my research is to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from information objects, such as process models used by analysts for information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence, perception and actualization of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances emerge between an individual and an object, how affordances are perceived, and how they are actualized by the individual. The proposed model also explains the role of available information for the individual, and the influence of perceived actualization effort. I operationalize and test this research model empirically, using a full-cycle, mixed methods study consisting of case study and experiment.

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Purpose Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) framework, this study explored whether the standard TPB constructs explained variance in Gen Y individuals’ intentions to join their ideal organisation. Design/methodology/approach A mixed methods approach was used featuring qualitative and quantitative methods. Findings The overall TPB model accounted for a significant 51.6% of the variance in intention to join one’s ideal organisation in the next six months with the significant predictors in the model being subjective norm and perceived behaviour control but not attitude. Research limitations/implications Using graduating students from a single Australian university sample may mean that the current findings may not extend to all Gen Y individuals. The current study has demonstrated the explanatory utility of the TPB in relation to graduate Gen Y’s intention to join their ideal organisation, providing further evidence of the robustness of the TPB framework in an organisational setting. Practical implications These findings have implications for enhancing understanding of the most effective recruitment processes for Gen Y students entering the workforce. The findings could inform recruitment policies and strategies to attract Gen Y applicants. Originality/value To our knowledge this study is the first application of the TPB to this topic. The current research extends the recruitment literature with a theoretically-based investigation. Identification of factors which inform organisational recruitment strategies, allow organisations to stand out from their competitors and potentially achieve a larger application pool from which to select the best human capital and sustain competitive advantage.

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Protein adsorption at solid-liquid interfaces is critical to many applications, including biomaterials, protein microarrays and lab-on-a-chip devices. Despite this general interest, and a large amount of research in the last half a century, protein adsorption cannot be predicted with an engineering level, design-orientated accuracy. Here we describe a Biomolecular Adsorption Database (BAD), freely available online, which archives the published protein adsorption data. Piecewise linear regression with breakpoint applied to the data in the BAD suggests that the input variables to protein adsorption, i.e., protein concentration in solution; protein descriptors derived from primary structure (number of residues, global protein hydrophobicity and range of amino acid hydrophobicity, isoelectric point); surface descriptors (contact angle); and fluid environment descriptors (pH, ionic strength), correlate well with the output variable-the protein concentration on the surface. Furthermore, neural network analysis revealed that the size of the BAD makes it sufficiently representative, with a neural network-based predictive error of 5% or less. Interestingly, a consistently better fit is obtained if the BAD is divided in two separate sub-sets representing protein adsorption on hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces, respectively. Based on these findings, selected entries from the BAD have been used to construct neural network-based estimation routines, which predict the amount of adsorbed protein, the thickness of the adsorbed layer and the surface tension of the protein-covered surface. While the BAD is of general interest, the prediction of the thickness and the surface tension of the protein-covered layers are of particular relevance to the design of microfluidics devices.

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The synthesis, electronic absorption and 1H NMR spectra of a suite of novel porphyrinoids derived from meso-bromoporphyrins by palladium-catalysed aminations using ethyl and tert-butylcarbazates are reported. Instead of the expected carbazate-substituted porphyrins, a facile oxidative dearomatisation of the porphyrin ring occurs in high yield, especially for the nickel(II) complexes, resulting in high yields of 5,15-diiminoporphodimethenes (DIPDs). The analogous zinc(II) and free base DIPDs were also characterised, the former by X-ray crystallography. The oxidation and reduction reactions of DIPDs and their precursor carbazate porphyrins were studied. Density Functional Theory (DFT) was used to calculate the optimised geometries and frontier molecular orbitals of DIPD Ni8c and bis(azocarboxylate) 19c, and Time Dependent DFT calculations allowed the prediction of electronic absorption spectra, whose characteristics corresponded well with those of the observed solution spectra. In the latter case, the calculated low-energy absorptions were unlike those of a typical porphyrin, due to the near-degeneracy of the highest filled frontier orbitals, and the wide energy separation between the unfilled orbitals. This feature was present in the observed spectrum.