SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

A new wavelet-based adaptive method for solving population balance equations

A new wavelet-based adaptive framework for solving population balance equations (PBEs) is proposed in this work. The technique is general, powerful and efficient without the need for prior assumptions about the characteristics of the processes. Because there are steeply varying number densities across a size range, a new strategy is developed to select the optimal order of resolution and the collocation points based on an interpolating wavelet transform (IWT). The proposed technique has been tested for size-independent agglomeration, agglomeration with a linear summation kernel and agglomeration with a nonlinear kernel. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions (PSDs) are in excellent agreement. Further work on the solution of the general population balance equations with nucleation, growth and agglomeration and the solution of steady-state population balance equations will be presented in this framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Action of auxin inhibitors on growth and grain yield of soybean

Soybean genotypes grown in sub-tropical climate may exhibit lodging. The plant lodging is influenced by soil type and fertility level, sowing date, latitude and altitude of the location, plant population and conditions of crop development. Plant regulators and herbicides are able to avoid or reduce plant lodging. This study aimed to verify the effects of the growth regulators TIBA and daminozide on vegetative growth and yield of soybean cultivar CD 214 RR. The experiment was carried out at a field in randomized block design with four replications in a factorial scheme. The A factor was represented by the combination of regulators TIBA and daminozide and its concentrations, and the Factor B was seven times of evaluation of injury and plant height or eight times of evaluation of lodging. In the range of doses used, the application of daminozide resulted in greater injury to soybean plants than TIBA. The smaller plant height was achieved by the application of 6 g ha-1 of TIBA and 1200 g ha-¹ of daminozide. Treatments with daminozide (100 g ha-¹) and TIBA (10 g ha-1) stood out due to the reduced lodging of soybean plants. Grain weight increased linearly when the levels of TIBA increased. There was a negative correlation between lodging and grain yield and a positive correlation between plant height and lodging. There was also a negative correlation between injury caused by the application of plant regulators and lodging.

Dynamical behaviour on the parameter space: new populational growth models proportional to beta densities

We present new populational growth models, generalized logistic models which are proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where p > 1, with Malthusian parameter r. The complex dynamical behaviour of these models is investigated in the parameter space (r, p), in terms of topological entropy, using explicit methods, when the Malthusian parameter r increases. This parameter space is split into different regions, according to the chaotic behaviour of the models.

Dynamical analysis in growth models: Blumberg’s equation

We present a new dynamical approach to the Blumberg's equation, a family of unimodal maps. These maps are proportional to Beta(p, q) probability densities functions. Using the symmetry of the Beta(p, q) distribution and symbolic dynamics techniques, a new concept of mirror symmetry is defined for this family of maps. The kneading theory is used to analyze the effect of such symmetry in the presented models. The main result proves that two mirror symmetric unimodal maps have the same topological entropy. Different population dynamics regimes are identified, when the intrinsic growth rate is modified: extinctions, stabilities, bifurcations, chaos and Allee effect. To illustrate our results, we present a numerical analysis, where are demonstrated: monotonicity of the topological entropy with the variation of the intrinsic growth rate, existence of isentropic sets in the parameters space and mirror symmetry.

The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants

In this paper, the determinants of growth of aggregate health expenditures are investigated. The study departs from previous literature in that it looks at differences across countries in growth (and not levels) of health care expenditures. Estimation is made for 24 OECD countries. Health system characteristics usually believed to influence health expenditures growth, like population ageing, the type of health system (public reimbursement, public contract or integrate) and existence of gatekeepers, are found to be non-significant. Nevertheless, there is evidence that health expenditures experienced a clear slower growth in the last decade. The explanation for this slowdown could not be found in the proposed model and should stimulate further research.

From weak Allee effect to no Allee effect in Richards’ growth models

Population dynamics have been attracting interest since many years. Among the considered models, the Richards’ equations remain one of the most popular to describe biological growth processes. On the other hand, Allee effect is currently a major focus of ecological research, which occurs when positive density dependence dominates at low densities. In this chapter, we propose the dynamical study of classes of functions based on Richards’ models describing the existence or not of Allee effect. We investigate bifurcation structures in generalized Richards’ functions and we look for the conditions in the (β, r) parameter plane for the existence of a weak Allee effect region. We show that the existence of this region is related with the existence of a dovetail structure. When the Allee limit varies, the weak Allee effect region disappears when the dovetail structure also disappears. Consequently, we deduce the transition from the weak Allee effect to no Allee effect to this family of functions. To support our analysis, we present fold and flip bifurcation curves and numerical simulations of several bifurcation diagrams.

Explosion birth and extinction: Double big bang bifurcations and Allee effect in Tsoularis-Wallace's growth models

This work concerns dynamics and bifurcations properties of a new class of continuous-defined one-dimensional maps: Tsoularis-Wallace's functions. This family of functions naturally incorporates a major focus of ecological research: the Allee effect. We provide a necessary condition for the occurrence of this phenomenon of extinction. To establish this result we introduce the notions of Allee's functions, Allee's effect region and Allee's bifurcation curve. Another central point of our investigation is the study of bifurcation structures for this class of functions, in a three-dimensional parameter space. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, Tsoularis-Wallace's functions have particular bifurcation structures: the big bang and the double big bang bifurcations of the so-called "box-within-a-box" type. The double big bang bifurcations are related to the existence of flip codimension-2 points. Moreover, it is verified that these bifurcation cascades converge to different big bang bifurcation curves, where for the corresponding parameter values are associated distinct kinds of boxes. This work contributes to clarify the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and understand their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

Primary Antiphospholipid Syndrome: Pregnancy Outcome in a Portuguese Population

Introduction:Women with antiphospholipid syndrome(APS) may suffer from recurrent miscarriage, fetal death, fetal growth restriction (FGR), pre-eclampsia, placental abruption, premature delivery and thrombosis. Treatment with aspirin and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) combined with close maternal-fetal surveillance can change these outcomes. Objective: To assess maternal and perinatal outcome in a cohort of Portuguese women with primary APS. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 51 women with primary APS followed in our institution (January 1994 to December 2007). Forty one(80.4%) had past pregnancy morbidity and 35.3%(n=18) suffered previous thrombotic events. In their past they had a total of 116 pregnancies of which only 13.79 % resulted in live births. Forty four patients had positive anticardiolipin antibodies and 33 lupus anticoagulant. All women received treatment with low dose aspirin and LMWH. Results: There were a total of 67 gestations (66 single and one multiple). The live birth rate was 85.1%(57/67) with 10 pregnancy failures: seven in the first and second trimesters, one late fetal death and two medical terminations of pregnancy (one APS related). Mean (± SD) birth weight was 2837 ± 812 g and mean gestational age 37 ± 3.3 weeks. There were nine cases of FGR and 13 hypertensive complications(4 HELLP syndromes). 54.4% of the patients delivered by caesarean section. Conclusions: In our cohort, early treatment with aspirin and LMWH combined with close maternal-fetal surveillance was associated with a very high chance of a live newborn.

PRETERM BIRTH AND FETAL GROWTH RESTRICTION IN HIV-INFECTED BRAZILIAN PREGNANT WOMEN

Introduction: Maternal HIV infection and related co-morbidities may have two outstanding consequences to fetal health: mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and adverse perinatal outcomes. After Brazilian success in reducing MTCT, the attention must now be diverted to the potentially increased risk for preterm birth (PTB) and intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR). Objective: To determine the prevalence of PTB and IUGR in low income, antiretroviral users, publicly assisted, HIV-infected women and to verify its relation to the HIV infection stage. Patients and Methods: Out of 250 deliveries from HIV-infected mothers that delivered at a tertiary public university hospital in the city of Vitória, state of Espírito Santo, Southeastern Brazil, from November 2001 to May 2012, 74 single pregnancies were selected for study, with ultrasound validated gestational age (GA) and data on birth dimensions: fetal weight (FW), birth length (BL), head and abdominal circumferences (HC, AC). The data were extracted from clinical and pathological records, and the outcomes summarized as proportions of preterm birth (PTB, < 37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW, < 2500g) and small (SGA), adequate (AGA) and large (LGA) for GA, defined as having a value below, between or beyond the ±1.28 z/GA score, the usual clinical cut-off to demarcate the 10th and 90th percentiles. Results: PTB was observed in 17.5%, LBW in 20.2% and SGA FW, BL, HC and AC in 16.2%, 19.1%, 13.8%, and 17.4% respectively. The proportions in HIV-only and AIDS cases were: PTB: 5.9 versus 27.5%, LBW: 14.7% versus 25.0%, SGA BW: 17.6% versus 15.0%, BL: 6.0% versus 30.0%, HC: 9.0% versus 17.9%, and AC: 13.3% versus 21.2%; only SGA BL attained a significant difference. Out of 15 cases of LBW, eight (53.3%) were preterm only, four (26.7%) were SGA only, and three (20.0%) were both PTB and SGA cases. A concomitant presence of, at least, two SGA dimensions in the same fetus was frequent. Conclusions: The proportions of preterm birth and low birth weight were higher than the local and Brazilian prevalence and a trend was observed for higher proportions of SGA fetal dimensions than the expected population distribution in this small casuistry of newborn from the HIV-infected, low income, antiretroviral users, and publicly assisted pregnant women. A trend for higher prevalence of PTB, LBW and SGA fetal dimensions was also observed in infants born to mothers with AIDS compared to HIV-infected mothers without AIDS.

Population and railways in Portugal, 1801-1930

Portuguese historiography has mostly adopted a pessimistic view regarding the contribution of the railways to the development of country. Yet, railway access helped to increase population concentration and economic development, favoring migration into towns, the growth of pre-existing urban centers, and the emergence of new centers. But railways tended to be more beneficial to regions that were already prosperous and to aggravate the conditions unfavorable to development in areas with greater structural weaknesses.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Fine time scaling of purifying selection on human nonsynonymous mtDNA mutations based on the worldwide population tree and mother-child pairs

A high-resolution mtDNA phylogenetic tree allowed us to look backward in time to investigate purifying selection. Purifying selection was very strong in the last 2,500 years, continuously eliminating pathogenic mutations back until the end of the Younger Dryas (∼11,000 years ago), when a large population expansion likely relaxed selection pressure. This was preceded by a phase of stable selection until another relaxation occurred in the out-of-Africa migration. Demography and selection are closely related: expansions led to relaxation of selection and higher pathogenicity mutations significantly decreased the growth of descendants. The only detectible positive selection was the recurrence of highly pathogenic nonsynonymous mutations (m.3394T>C-m.3397A>G-m.3398T>C) at interior branches of the tree, preventing the formation of a dinucleotide STR (TATATA) in the MT-ND1 gene. At the most recent time scale in 124 mother-children transmissions, purifying selection was detectable through the loss of mtDNA variants with high predicted pathogenicity. A few haplogroup-defining sites were also heteroplasmic, agreeing with a significant propensity in 349 positions in the phylogenetic tree to revert back to the ancestral variant. This nonrandom mutation property explains the observation of heteroplasmic mutations at some haplogroup-defining sites in sequencing datasets, which may not indicate poor quality as has been claimed.

Defining habitat characteristics influencing the distribution, density and growth of Plaice (Pleuronectes Platessa) and Dab (Limanda Limanda) on west of Ireland nursery grounds

Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, L.) and dab (Limanda limanda, L.) are among the most abundant flatfishes in the north-eastern Atlantic region and the dominant species in shallow coastal nursery grounds. With increasing pressures on commercial flatfish stocks in combination with changing coastal environments, better knowledge of population dynamics during all life stages is needed to evaluate variability in year-class strength and recruitment to the fishery. The aim of this research was to investigate the complex interplay of biotic and abiotic habitat components influencing the distribution, density and growth of plaice and dab during the vulnerable juvenile life stage and to gain insight in spatial and temporal differences in nursery habitat quality along the west coast of Ireland. Intraspecific variability in plaice diet was observed at different spatial scales and showed a link with condition, recent growth and morphology. This highlights the effect of food availability on habitat quality and the need to consider small scale variation when attempting to link habitat quality to feeding, growth and condition of juvenile flatfish. There was evidence of trophic, spatial and temporal resource partitioning between juvenile plaice and dab allowing the co-existence of morphologically similar species in nursery grounds. In the limited survey years there was no evidence that the carrying capacity of the studied nursery grounds was reached but spatial and interannual variations in fish growth indicated fluctuating environments in terms of food availability, predator densities, sediment features and physico-chemical conditions. Predation was the most important factor affecting habitat quality for juvenile plaice and dab with crab densities negatively correlated to fish condition whereas shrimp densities were negatively associated with densities of small-sized juveniles in spring. A comparison of proxies for fish growth showed the advantage of Fulton’s K for routine use whereas RNA:DNA ratios proved less powerful when short-term environmental fluctuations are lacking. This study illustrated how distinct sets of habitat features can drive spatial variation in density and condition of juvenile flatfish highlighting the value of studying both variables when modeling habitat requirements. The habitat models generated in this study also provide a powerful tool to predict potential climate and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution and condition of juveniles in flatfish nurseries. The need for effective coastal zone management was emphasized to ensure a sustainable use of coastal resources and successful flatfish recruitment to the fishery.

Population dynamics of O-group plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L., on sandy beach nursery grounds in Galway Bay, the West Coast of Ireland, 2002 to 2006.

The recruitment of 0-group plaice to sandy beach nursery grounds in Galway Bay was examined, using a Riley push-net, from February to June in 2005 and 2006. Sampling was carried out every two weeks on spring tides. Three beaches were sampled, Ballyloughan, Silverstrand and Glann na Ri. Archived 0-group plaice, for Ballyloughan and Silverstrand, from 2004, were processed. Results were compared to findings from a previous study carried out in 2002 and 2003 (Allen 2004). Otolith microstructure analysis was used to determine hatching dates, larval duration, settlement dates, post-larval age and daily growth rates of 0-group plaice in April and May 2005. Results were compared to a previous study (Allen 2004). Hatching dates in Galway Bay ranged from late January to early April in 2005. No significant difference in hatching dates was observed between years or between beaches sampled. Larval duration of 0-group plaice in Galway Bay ranged from 21 to 45 days for fish sampled in April and May 2005. No significant difference was observed in larval age between beaches sampled in Galway Bay or between years in April 2003 and 2005. A significant difference was observed between larval age and years in May 2003 and 2005, however no significant difference was observed between beaches. Settlement timing was calculated using push-net data and otolith microstructure analysis. Settlement of 0-group plaice in Galway Bay generally started in early March and finished in May. Settlement patterns, calculated using otolith microstructure analysis, in 2003 and 2005, were not significantly different to one another. There was also no difference in settlement patterns between the beaches sampled. Results from the present study showed no spatial difference in the pelagic life cycle stages of fish caught in April and May 2003 and 2005.