Essays on the Empirical Analysis of Economic and Political Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

Soziale Rebellion oder kriminelles Banditentum? : eine Analyse der kolumbianischen Guerillaorganisation FARC-EP

Unter Präsident Álvaro Uribe Vélez und dem Einfluss neuer Strömungen innerhalb der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung änderte sich nach Abbruch der Friedensgespräche zwischen kolumbianischer Regierung und linksgerichteter Guerillaorganisation FARC-EP im Jahr 2002 zunehmend die Perzeption des seit Jahrzehnten andauernden internen Konflikts. Dieser Wandel zeichnete sich vor allem durch eine Klassifizierung der noch aktiven Guerillaorganisationen als vorrangig kriminelle Akteure aus. Doch inwieweit wird diese neue Sicht der Dinge der kolumbianischen Realität gerecht?rnrnIm Zentrum dieser Arbeit steht der Versuch die illegale kolumbianische Guerillaorganisation FARC-EP für den Zeitraum zwischen 2002 und 2009 zu klassifizieren. Als empirische Grundlage der Analyse dienen dabei heterogene Dokumente der FARC-EP sowie Interviews mit Kommandanten und ehemaligen Mitliedern der Organisation.rn

Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey

Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is highly agrarian, with about 50% of family income deriving from agriculture (see Figure 4.1; also LSMS 2007 – own calculations). Tajikistan’s agriculture basically consists of two groups of producers: small household plots – the successors of Soviet “private agriculture” – and dehkan (or “peasant”) farms – new family farming structures that began to be created under relevant legislation passed after 1992 (Lerman and Sedik, 2008). The household plots manage 20% of arable land and produce 65% of gross agricultural output (GAO). Dehkan farms manage 65% of arable land and produce close to 30% of GAO. The remaining 15% of arable land is held in agricultural enterprises – the rapidly shrinking sector of corporate farms that succeeded the Soviet kolkhozes and sovkhozes and today produces less than 10% of GAO (TajStat 2011) The survey conducted in May 2011 focused on dehkan farms, as budgetary constraints precluded the inclusion of household plots. A total of 142 dehkan farms were surveyed in face-to-face interviews. They were sampled from 17 districts across all four regions – Sughd, Khatlon, RRP, and GBAO. The districts were selected so as to represent different agro-climatic zones, different vulnerability zones (based on the World Bank (2011) vulnerability assessment), and different food-insecurity zones (based on WFP/IPC assessments). Within each district, 3-4 jamoats were chosen at random and 2-3 farms were selected in each jamoat from lists provided by jamoat administration so as to maximize the variability by farm characteristics. The sample design by region/district is presented in Table A, which also shows the agro-climatic zone and the food security phase for each district. The sample districts are superimposed on a map of food security phases based on IPC April 2011.

Theories of Militancy in Practice: Explanations of Muslim Terrorism in India

This article analyzes the interaction between theories of radicalization and state responses to militancy in India. Focusing on the interpretation of the increased frequency of terrorist attacks in Indian metropolises in the last decade, the article examines the narratives surrounding those classified as terrorists in the context of rising Muslim militancy in the country. Different state agencies operate with different theories about the links between processes of radicalization and terrorist violence. The scenarios of radicalization underlying legislative efforts to prevent terrorism, the construction of motives by the police, and the interpretation of violence by the judiciary all rely on assumptions about radicalization and violence. Such narratives are used to explain terrorism both to security agencies and to the public; they inform the categories and scenarios of prevention. Prevention relies on detection of future deeds, planning, intentions, and even potential intentions. "Detection" of potential intentions relies on assumptions about specific dispositions. Identification of such dispositions in turn relies on the context-specific theories of the causes of militancy. These determine what "characteristics" of individuals or groups indicate potential threats and form the basis for their categorization as "potentially dangerous." The article explores the cultural contexts of theories of radicalization, focusing on how they are framed by societal understandings of the causes of deviance and the relation between the individual and society emerging in contemporary India. It examines the shift in the perception of threat and the categories of "dangerous others" from a focus on role to a focus on ascriptive identity.

A Global Trend towards Democratic Convergence? A Lijphartian Analysis of Advanced Democracies.

The article offers a systematic analysis of the comparative trajectory of international democratic change. In particular, it focuses on the resulting convergence or divergence of political systems, borrowing from the literatures on institutional change and policy convergence. To this end, political-institutional data in line with Arend Lijphart’s (1999, 2012) empirical theory of democracy for 24 developed democracies between 1945 and 2010 are analyzed. Heteroscedastic multilevel models allow for directly modeling the development of the variance of types of democracy over time, revealing information about convergence, and adding substantial explanations. The findings indicate that there has been a trend away from extreme types of democracy in single cases, but no unconditional trend of convergence can be observed. However, there are conditional processes of convergence. In particular, economic globalization and the domestic veto structure interactively influence democratic convergence.

The Social Life of Anti-Terrorism Laws. The War on Terror and the Classifications of the "Dangerous Other"

This book addresses two developments in the conceptualisation of citizenship that arise from the 'war on terror', namely the re-culturalisation of membership in a polity and the re-moralisationof access to rights. Taking an anthropological perspective, it traces the ways in which the trans-nationalisation of the 'war on terror' has affected notions of 'the dangerous other' in different political and social contexts, asking what changes in the ideas of the state and of the nation have been promoted by the emerging culture of security, and how these changes affect practices of citizenship and societal group relations.

Direct democracy and political trust: Enhancing trust, initiating distrust–or both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens’ perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public’s interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub-national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.

About DNA databasing and investigative genetic analysis of externally visible characteristics: A public survey.

During the last decade, DNA profiling and the use of DNA databases have become two of the most employed instruments of police investigations. This very rapid establishment of forensic genetics is yet far from being complete. In the last few years novel types of analyses have been presented to describe phenotypically a possible perpetrator. We conducted the present study among German speaking Swiss residents for two main reasons: firstly, we aimed at getting an impression of the public awareness and acceptance of the Swiss DNA database and the perception of a hypothetical DNA database containing all Swiss residents. Secondly, we wanted to get a broader picture of how people that are not working in the field of forensic genetics think about legal permission to establish phenotypic descriptions of alleged criminals by genetic means. Even though a significant number of study participants did not even know about the existence of the Swiss DNA database, its acceptance appears to be very high. Generally our results suggest that the current forensic use of DNA profiling is considered highly trustworthy. However, the acceptance of a hypothetical universal database would be only as low as about 30% among the 284 respondents to our study, mostly because people are concerned about the security of their genetic data, their privacy or a possible risk of abuse of such a database. Concerning the genetic analysis of externally visible characteristics and biogeographical ancestry, we discover a high degree of acceptance. The acceptance decreases slightly when precise characteristics are presented to the participants in detail. About half of the respondents would be in favor of the moderate use of physical traits analyses only for serious crimes threatening life, health or sexual integrity. The possible risk of discrimination and reinforcement of racism, as discussed by scholars from anthropology, bioethics, law, philosophy and sociology, is mentioned less frequently by the study participants than we would have expected. A national DNA database and the widespread use of DNA analyses for police and justice have an impact on the entire society. Therefore the concerns of lay persons from the respective population should be heard and considered. The aims of this study were to draw a broader picture of the public opinion on DNA databasing and to contribute to the debate about the possible future use of genetics to reveal phenotypic characteristics. Our data might provide an additional perspective for experts involved in regulatory or legislative processes.

The Role of Corruption in Explaining the Electoral Success of New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This paper examines corruption as potential determinant of their electoral success. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: On the onehand, the historically-grown corruption level reduces the electoral success of new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase of the perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral success of new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2011 confirms these two counteracting effects.

Perceptions of critical situations involving football fans: the dynamics of conflict escalation or de-escalation

Fan violence in the context of football matches has drawn the attention of stakeholders and the media. This phenomenon has also attracted the scientific community’s attention, where research mostly focused on reasons for violence escalation. The Elaborated Social Identity Model (ESIM; Drury & Reicher, 2000) for example focuses on group-interactions and social identities, while the Aggravation Mitigation Model (AM model; Hylander & Guvå, 2010) concentrates on factors contributing to an escalation or a non-escalation of group-violence. However individual perceptions of the different persons involved in potential conflicts have not been sufficiently examined. Beside of that research in domestic football or involving ultrafans is scarce. Especially in Switzerland, there is a lack of research concerning the dynamics of the development or non-development of fan violence. This exploratory study included eight critical situations from the season 2012/2013 of the Swiss premier league to gather data about the perceptions of various persons involved (fans, police officers or security) and the dynamics contributing towards escalation or de-escalation. Fifty-nine narrative interviews were conducted and analysed with interpretative phenomenological analysis (Smith, Flowers, & Larkin, 2009). The individuals involved (fans, police and security personnel) showed groupspecific perceptions and a tendency to stereotype the opponent group. Provocative symbols (balaclavas or riot-gear uniforms) were important for the interpretation of the situation. No escalation occurred when successful communication and sufficient distance between the groups was established. Knowledge about the local fan culture is important, because it influences the perception of legitimacy on the side of the fans. This study improves the understanding of fan violence and is congruent with the ESIM and the AM model. It is suggested to deploy police dialogue teams without riot gear. Their task is to establish direct communication with the fans to facilitate a peaceful ending of a critical situation.

Corruption and the Electoral Support of New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This article examines corruption as a potential determinant of their electoral support. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: on the one hand, the historically derived corruption level reduces the electoral support for new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase in perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral support for new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2013 confirms these two counteracting effects.

Representing Afghanistan: The United States and Democracy's Imposition

There is an ongoing mission in Afghanistan; a mission driven by external political forces. At its core this mission hopes to establish peace, to protect the populace, and to install democracy. Each of these goals has remained just that, a goal, for the past eight years as the American and international mission in Afghanistan has enjoyed varied levels of commitment. Currently, the stagnant progress in Afghanistan has led the international community to become increasingly concerned about the viability of a future Afghan state. Most of these questions take root in the question over whether or not an Afghan state can function without the auspices of international terrorism. Inevitably, the normative question of what exactly that government should be arises from this base concern. In formulating a response to this question, the consensus of western society has been to install representative democracy. This answer has been a recurring theme in the post Cold War era as states such as Bosnia and Somalia bear witness to the ill effects of external democratic imposition. I hypothesize that the current mold of externally driven state-building is unlikely to result in what western actors seek it to establish: representative democracy. By primarily examining the current situation in Afghanistan, I claim that external installation of representative democracy is modally flawed in that its process mandates choice. Representative democracy by definition constitutes a government reflective of its people, or electorate. Thus, freedom of choice is necessary for a functional representative democracy. From this, one can deduce that because an essential function of democracy is choice, its implementation lies with the presence of choice. State-building is an imposition that eliminates that necessary ingredient. The two stand as polar opposites that cannot effectively collaborate. Security, governing capacity, and development have all been targeted as measurements of success in Afghanistan. The three factors are generally seen as mutually constitutive; so improved security is seen as improving governing capacity. Thus, the recent resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and a deteriorating security environment moving forward has demonstrated the inability of the Afghan government to govern. The primary reason for the Afghan government’s deficiencies is its lack of legitimacy among its constituency. Even the use of the term ‘constituency’ must be qualified because the Afghan government has often oscillated between serving the people within its territorial borders and the international community. The existence of the Afghan state is so dependent on foreign aid and intervention that it has lost policy-making and enforcing power. This is evident by the inability of Afghanistan to engage in basic sovereign state activities as maintaining a national budget, conducting elections, providing for its own national security, and deterring criminality. The Afghan state is nothing more than a shell of a government, and indicative of the failings that external state-building has with establishing democracy.

Security devices based on liquid crystals doped with a colour dye

Liquid crystal properties make them useful for the development of security devices in applications of authentication and detection of fakes. Induced orientation of liquid crystal molecules and birefringence are the two main properties used in security devices. Employing liquid crystal and dichroic colorants, we have developed devices that show, with the aid of a polarizer, multiple images on each side of the device. Rubbed polyimide is used as alignment layer on each substrate of the LC cell. By rubbing the polyimide in different directions in each substrate it is possible to create any kind of symbols, drawings or motifs with a greyscale; the more complex the created device is, the more difficult is to fake it. To identify the motifs it is necessary to use polarized light. Depending on whether the polarizer is located in front of the LC cell or behind it, different motifs from one or the other substrate are shown. The effect arises from the dopant colour dye added to the liquid crystal, the induced orientation and the twist structure. In practice, a grazing reflection on a dielectric surface is polarized enough to see the effect. Any LC flat panel display can obviously be used as backlight as well.

Cognitive strategies for security in wireless sensor networks

Las redes de sensores inalámbricas son uno de los sectores con más crecimiento dentro de las redes inalámbricas. La rápida adopción de estas redes como solución para muchas nuevas aplicaciones ha llevado a un creciente tráfico en el espectro radioeléctrico. Debido a que las redes inalámbricas de sensores operan en las bandas libres Industrial, Scientific and Medical (ISM) se ha producido una saturación del espectro que en pocos años no permitirá un buen funcionamiento. Con el objetivo de solucionar este tipo de problemas ha aparecido el paradigma de Radio Cognitiva (CR). La introducción de las capacidades cognitivas en las redes inalámbricas de sensores permite utilizar estas redes para aplicaciones con unos requisitos más estrictos respecto a fiabilidad, cobertura o calidad de servicio. Estas redes que aúnan todas estas características son llamadas redes de sensores inalámbricas cognitivas (CWSNs). La mejora en prestaciones de las CWSNs permite su utilización en aplicaciones críticas donde antes no podían ser utilizadas como monitorización de estructuras, de servicios médicos, en entornos militares o de vigilancia. Sin embargo, estas aplicaciones también requieren de otras características que la radio cognitiva no nos ofrece directamente como, por ejemplo, la seguridad. La seguridad en CWSNs es un aspecto poco desarrollado al ser una característica no esencial para su funcionamiento, como pueden serlo el sensado del espectro o la colaboración. Sin embargo, su estudio y mejora es esencial de cara al crecimiento de las CWSNs. Por tanto, esta tesis tiene como objetivo implementar contramedidas usando las nuevas capacidades cognitivas, especialmente en la capa física, teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones con las que cuentan las WSNs. En el ciclo de trabajo de esta tesis se han desarrollado dos estrategias de seguridad contra ataques de especial importancia en redes cognitivas: el ataque de simulación de usuario primario (PUE) y el ataque contra la privacidad eavesdropping. Para mitigar el ataque PUE se ha desarrollado una contramedida basada en la detección de anomalías. Se han implementado dos algoritmos diferentes para detectar este ataque: el algoritmo de Cumulative Sum y el algoritmo de Data Clustering. Una vez comprobado su validez se han comparado entre sí y se han investigado los efectos que pueden afectar al funcionamiento de los mismos. Para combatir el ataque de eavesdropping se ha desarrollado una contramedida basada en la inyección de ruido artificial de manera que el atacante no distinga las señales con información del ruido sin verse afectada la comunicación que nos interesa. También se ha estudiado el impacto que tiene esta contramedida en los recursos de la red. Como resultado paralelo se ha desarrollado un marco de pruebas para CWSNs que consta de un simulador y de una red de nodos cognitivos reales. Estas herramientas han sido esenciales para la implementación y extracción de resultados de la tesis. ABSTRACT Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are one of the fastest growing sectors in wireless networks. The fast introduction of these networks as a solution in many new applications has increased the traffic in the radio spectrum. Due to the operation of WSNs in the free industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands, saturation has ocurred in these frequencies that will make the same operation methods impossible in the future. Cognitive radio (CR) has appeared as a solution for this problem. The networks that join all the mentioned features together are called cognitive wireless sensor networks (CWSNs). The adoption of cognitive features in WSNs allows the use of these networks in applications with higher reliability, coverage, or quality of service requirements. The improvement of the performance of CWSNs allows their use in critical applications where they could not be used before such as structural monitoring, medical care, military scenarios, or security monitoring systems. Nevertheless, these applications also need other features that cognitive radio does not add directly, such as security. The security in CWSNs has not yet been explored fully because it is not necessary field for the main performance of these networks. Instead, other fields like spectrum sensing or collaboration have been explored deeply. However, the study of security in CWSNs is essential for their growth. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to study the impact of some cognitive radio attacks in CWSNs and to implement countermeasures using new cognitive capabilities, especially in the physical layer and considering the limitations of WSNs. Inside the work cycle of this thesis, security strategies against two important kinds of attacks in cognitive networks have been developed. These attacks are the primary user emulator (PUE) attack and the eavesdropping attack. A countermeasure against the PUE attack based on anomaly detection has been developed. Two different algorithms have been implemented: the cumulative sum algorithm and the data clustering algorithm. After the verification of these solutions, they have been compared and the side effects that can disturb their performance have been analyzed. The developed approach against the eavesdropping attack is based on the generation of artificial noise to conceal information messages. The impact of this countermeasure on network resources has also been studied. As a parallel result, a new framework for CWSNs has been developed. This includes a simulator and a real network with cognitive nodes. This framework has been crucial for the implementation and extraction of the results presented in this thesis.