Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):field study handbook

This handbook describes the peer review methodology that was applied at the GODIAC project fi eld studies1. The peer review evaluation method as initiated by Otto Adang in the Netherlands and further developed in a European football context (Adang & Brown, 2008) involves experienced police offi cers cooperating with researchers to perform observational fi eld studies to identify good practices and learning points for public order management. The handbook builds on the GODIAC seminars and workshops, for the fi eld study members, which took place in September 2010, January 2012 and January 2013. The handbook has been discussed in the project group and in the steering committee. It is primarily written for the GODIAC fi eld study members as background material for understanding the fi eld study process and for clarifying the different responsibilities that enable active participation in the fi eld study. The handbook has been developed during the project period and incorporates learning points and developments of the peer review method. The handbook aims at promoting the use of fi eld studies for evaluation of policing major events.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):the anthology

The volume is divided into two parts; the fi rst deals with issues related to the police, and the second addresses issues related to demonstrators and protesters. We hope that this volume will provide further insight into issues associated with policing at major events and shed light on the complexity of the organisations, motives, and strategies in play whenever protester groups are involved.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):recommendations for policing political manifestations in Europe

This report summarises the fi eld study results of the project ’Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principles for policing political manifestations in Europe’ (GODIAC).1 The overall idea was to integrate operative police work, research and training within the fi eld and to build international and institutional networks, ensuring and recognising the responsibilities of the organisers. The purpose of the GODIAC project was to contribute to the development of a European approach to policing political manifestations.

Bayesian-MCMC inversion of time-lapse geophysical data to characterize vadose zone hydraulic behaviour

Geophysical methods have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, time-lapse geophysical data, when coupled with a hydrological model and inverted stochastically, may allow for the effective estimation of subsurface hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. In this study, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to investigate how much information regarding vadose zone hydraulic properties can be retrieved from time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected at the Arrenaes field site in Denmark during a forced infiltration experiment.

Kinship, ritual kinship and political milieus in an alpine Valley in 19th century

In my paper I will present some results about ritual kinship and political mobilization of popular groups in an alpine Valley: the Val de Bagnes, in the Swiss canton of Valais. There are two major reasons to choose the Val de Bagnes for our inquiry about social networks: the existence of sharp political and social conflicts during the 18th and the 19th century and the availability of almost systematic genealogical data between 1700 and 1900. The starting point of my research focuses on this question: what role did kinship and ritual kinship play in the political mobilization of popular groups and in the organization of competing factions? This question allows us to shed light on some other uses and meanings of ritual kinship in the local society. Was ritual kinship a significant instrument for economic cooperation? Or was it a channel for patronage or for privileged social contacts? The analysis highlights the importance of kinship and godparentage for the building of homogeneous social and political networks. If we consider transactions between individuals, the analysis of 19th century Val de Bagnes gives the impression of quite open networks. Men and women tried to diversify their relations in order to avoid strong dependency from powerful patrons. Nevertheless, when we consider the family networks, we can notice that most relations took place in a structured social space or a specific "milieu", were intense contacts enhanced trust, although political allegiances and social choices were not fully predictable on the basis of such preferential patterns. In a politically conflictual society, like 19th century Bagnes, ritual kinship interacted with kinship solidarities and ideological factors shaping dense social networks mostly based on a common political orientation. Such milieus sustained the building of political factions, which show surprising stability over time. In this sense, milieus are important factors to understand political and religious polarization in 19th century Switzerland.

Social structure emerges via the interaction between local ecology and individual behaviour.

1. The formation of groups is a fundamental aspect of social organization, but there are still many questions regarding how social structure emerges from individuals making non-random associations. 2. Although food distribution and individual phenotypic traits are known to separately influence social organization, this is the first study, to our knowledge, experimentally linking them to demonstrate the importance of their interaction in the emergence of social structure. 3. Using an experimental design in which food distribution was either clumped or dispersed, in combination with individuals that varied in exploratory behaviour, our results show that social structure can be induced in the otherwise non-social European shore crab (Carcinus maenas). 4. Regardless of food distribution, individuals with relatively high exploratory behaviour played an important role in connecting otherwise poorly connected individuals. In comparison, low exploratory individuals aggregated into cohesive, stable subgroups (moving together even when not foraging), but only in tanks where resources were clumped. No such non-foraging subgroups formed in environments where food was evenly dispersed. 5. Body size did not accurately explain an individual's role within the network for either type of food distribution. 6. Because of their synchronized movements and potential to gain social information, groups of low exploratory crabs were more effective than singletons at finding food. 7. Because social structure affects selection, and social structure is shown to be sensitive to the interaction between ecological and behavioural differences among individuals, local selective pressures are likely to reflect this interaction.

Genome-wide analysis of Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 behaviour during inoculation and growth in contaminated sand.

The efficacy of inoculation of single pure bacterial cultures into complex microbiomes, for example, in order to achieve increased pollutant degradation rates in contaminated material (that is, bioaugmentation), has been frustrated by insufficient knowledge on the behaviour of the inoculated bacteria under the specific abiotic and biotic boundary conditions. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of genome-wide gene expression of the bacterium Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 in contaminated non-sterile sand, compared with regular suspended batch growth in liquid culture. RW1 is a well-known bacterium capable of mineralizing dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans. We tested the reactions of the cells both during the immediate transition phase from liquid culture to sand with or without dibenzofuran, as well as during growth and stationary phase in sand. Cells during transition show stationary phase characteristics, evidence for stress and for nutrient scavenging, and adjust their primary metabolism if they were not precultured on the same contaminant as found in the soil. Cells growing and surviving in sand degrade dibenzofuran but display a very different transcriptome signature as in liquid or in liquid culture exposed to chemicals inducing drought stress, and we obtain evidence for numerous 'soil-specific' expressed genes. Studies focusing on inoculation efficacy should test behaviour under conditions as closely as possible mimicking the intended microbiome conditions.

Behaviour of pre-parturient sows housed in intensive outdoor or indoor systems

This work compared the behaviour of pre-parturient sows housed in intensive confined and outdoor systems, during the morning and afternoon prior to delivery. Eight sows were kept individually in farrowing crates or in paddocks with access to fresh pasture from 8 to 10 days before expected parturition. All outdoor sows built a nest within 24 hours before farrowing. On the morning and afternoon before farrowing they spent 6.5% of the time collecting grass and 7.5% of the time organizing the nest. Outdoor sows were observed more often than confined sows rooting (4.60% vs. 0.25%), feeding (10.2% vs. 3.0%), standing (51% vs. 13%) and walking (8% vs. 0%). Indoor sows redirected the nesting behaviour to other behaviours like attempts to dig the ground, nosing, biting and rooting parts of the crate, feeder or drinker, during 4.7% of the time. They also spent more time than outdoor sows inactive (85% vs. 60%), lying (72% vs. 41%), drinking (2.1% vs. 0.5%) and vacuum chewing (3.7% vs. 0.1%). The pre-parturient behaviour of sows was considerably affected by the husbandry system. The outdoor system appears to be more appropriate for the sows' welfare than the conventional confinement.