How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Redox index of soil carbon stability

As an alternative to the relatively complex and expensive spectroscopic methods, the redox properties of humic acids, determined by potentiometric titrations, have been used to evaluate the stability of soil organic C. The objective of the present study was to establish a Redox Index of C Stability (RICS) and to correlate it with some properties of the humic acids extracted from different modal soils in Brazil (distinct weathering stages or management) to facilitate system comparison. The RICS was efficient for soil comparison and variations were comparable to those of the chemical and spectroscopic methods used for humic acid characterization. The values of soil pH, point of zero salt effect, sum of bases, exchangeable Ca content, weathering index, as well as the humic acid O/C ratio, quinone and semiquinone free radical contents, aromatic C and fluorescence intensity were closely related with the RICS. The RICS was higher in less weathered soils, with more active clays and higher fertility. The RICS values of soils under long-term sugarcane management were ranked in decreasing order: unburned, burned with vinasse, burned without vinasse.

Validation of rotational thromboelastometry during cardiopulmonary bypass: A prospective, observational in-vivo study.

BACKGROUND: Rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) is a whole blood point-of-test used to assess the patient's coagulation status. Three of the available ROTEM tests are EXTEM, INTEM and HEPTEM. In the latter, heparinase added to the INTEM reagent inactivates heparin to reveal residual heparin effect. Performing ROTEM analysis during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) might allow the anaesthesiologist to anticipate the need for blood products. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to validate ROTEM analysis in the presence of very high heparin concentrations during CPB. DESIGN: Prospective, observational trial. SETTING: Single University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: ROTEM analysis was performed before heparin administration (T0), 10 min after heparin (T1), at the end of CPB (T2) and 10 min after protamine (T3). The following tests were performed: EXTEM, INTEM, and HEPTEM. Heparin concentrations were measured at T1 and at the end of bypass (T2). RESULTS: At T1, EXTEM differed from baseline for coagulation time: +26.7 s (18.4 to 34.9, P < 0.0001), α: -3° (1.0 to 5.4, P = 0.006) and A10: -4.4 mm (2.3 to 6.5, P = 0.0004). INTEM at T0 was different from HEPTEM at T1 for coagulation time: + 47 s (34.3 to 59.6, P >0.0001), A10: -2.3 mm (0.5 to 4.0, P = 0.01) and α -2° (1.0 to 3.0; P = 0.0007). At T2, all parameters in EXTEM and HEPTEM related to fibrin-platelet interaction deteriorated significantly compared to T1. At T3, EXTEM and INTEM were comparable to EXTEM and HEPTEM at T2. CONCLUSION: HEPTEM and EXTEM measurements are valid in the presence of very high heparin concentrations and can be performed before protamine administration in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01455454.

Statistics of transverse mode turn-on dynamics in VCSEL's

The turn-on process of a multimode VCSEL is investigated from a statistical point of view. Special attention is paid to quantities such as time jitter and bit error rate. The single-mode performance of VCSEL¿s during current modulation is compared to that of edge-emitting lasers.

Temporary Traffic Control and Enforcement of Traffic Laws in Closed Road Sections, June 2007

Public travel by motor vehicles is often necessary in road and street sections that have been officially closed for construction, repair, and/or other reasons. This authorization is permitted in order to provide access to homes and businesses located beyond the point of closure. The MUTCD does address appropriate use of specific regulatory signs at the entrance to closed sections; however, direct guidance for temporary traffic control measures within these areas is not included but may be needed. Interpretation and enforcement of common practices may vary among transportation agencies. For example, some law enforcement officers in Iowa have indicated a concern regarding enforcement and jurisdiction of traffic laws in these areas because the Code of Iowa only appears to address violations on roadways open to “public travel.” Enforcement of traffic laws in closed road sections is desirable to maintain safety for workers and for specifically authorized road users. In addition, occasional unauthorized entry by motor vehicles is experienced in closed road areas causing property damage. Citations beyond simple trespass may be advisable to provide better security for construction sites, reduce economic losses from damage to completed work, and create safer work zones.

A Picture of Performance Goals in the Social Plenum: The Interpersonal Antecedents and Consequences of Performance Goals

Bien que les activités où la compétence est un enjeu (p. ex. : problème académique) prennent souvent place dans des contextes interpersonnels (p. ex. : classe), hiérarchiques (p. ex. : enseignant-e/élèves), et spécifiques en termes de normes et de valeurs (p. ex. : culture), l'étude des buts de performance-le désir de se montrer compétent-e relativement à autrui-a le plus souvent été conduite au seul niveau intrapersonnel. S'appuyant sur le modèle transactionnel du stress et du coping, le modèle circumplexe des comportements interpersonnels, ainsi que sur la théorie de l'élaboration du conflit, la première partie de cette thèse révèle les conséquences interpersonnelles des buts de performance sur la régulation d'un comportement spécifique, à savoir le conflit sociocognitif (c.-à-d., une situation de confrontation avec un intéractant en désaccord) : les buts de performance-approche-le désir d'être meilleur-e qu'autrui-prédisent une régulation du conflit fortement agentique (dominante), soit la validation de son point de vue au détriment de celui de l'intéractant (que nous désignons régulation compétitive) ; alors que les buts de performance-évitement-le désir de ne pas être moins bon-ne qu'autrui-prédisent une régulation du conflit faiblement agentique (soumise), soit l'invalidation de son point de vue au bénéfice de celui de l'intéractant (que nous désignons régulation protective). De plus, les effets susmentionnés augmentent à mesure que l'intéractant est présenté comme supérieurement (vs. similairement) compétent. S'appuyant sur la littérature sur les structures de buts de groupe, et celle sur la socialisation des valeurs, la seconde partie de cette thèse révèle les antécédents interpersonnels des buts de performance, et plus spécifiquement le rôle du superviseur dans la socialisation des buts de performance : les buts de performance-approche d'un superviseur sont positivement associés avec l'émergence au cours du temps des buts de performance-approche de ses subordonnés (particulièrement lorsqu'ils se perçoivent comme compétents) et celle de leurs buts de performance-évitement (particulièrement lorsqu'ils se perçoivent comme incompétents). En outre, ce phénomène consistant en un processus de socialisation, les effets susmentionnés augmentent lorsque l'identification à l'endogroupe des subordonnées augmente, et lorsque l'adhésion aux valeurs culturelles occidentales dominantes (c.-à-d., rehaussement de soi) du superviseur augmente. Dans leur ensemble, ces résultats soulignent la nécessité d'étudier les buts dans leur plenum social, autrement dit, en adoptant une perspective interpersonnelle (c.-à-d., étudier les effets des buts entre les individus), positionnelle (c.-à-d., entre des individus de différentes positions sociales), et idéologique (c.- à-d., entre des individus se conformant à des normes spécifiques et adhérant à des valeurs spécifiques). -- Although competence-relevant activities (e.g., solving an academic problem) are often embedded in interpersonal (e.g., classroom), hierarchical (e.g., teacher/pupils), and norm-/value-specific (e.g., culture) settings, the study of performance goals-the desire to demonstrate competence relative to others-has mostly been conducted at the intrapersonal level alone. Drawing on the transactional model of stress and coping, the circumplex model of interpersonal behaviors, as well as on the conflict elaboration theory, the first part of this thesis reveals the interpersonal consequences of performance goals on the regulation of a specific behavior, namely socio-cognitive conflict (i.e., a situation of confrontation with a disagreeing interactant): Performance-approach goals-the desire to outperform others- predicted a highly agentic (dominant) conflict regulation, that is, the validation of one's point of view at the expense of that of the interactant (which we labeled competitive regulation); whereas performance-avoidance goals-the desire not to be outperformed by others- predicted a poorly agentic (submissive) conflict regulation, that is, the invalidation of one's point of view to the benefit of that of the interactant (which we labeled protective regulation). Furthermore, both the aforementioned effects were found to increase when the interactant was presented as being superiorly (vs. equally) in competence. Drawing on the literature on group goal structure, as well as on research on socialization of supervisors-based values, the second part of this thesis reveals the interpersonal antecedents of performance-based goals endorsement, focusing-more specifically-on the role of group-supervisors in performance goals socialization: Supervisor's performance-approach goals were positively associated with the emergence over time of subordinates' performance-approach (especially when perceiving themselves as competent) and -avoidance goals (especially when perceiving themselves as incompetent). Furthermore, providing evidence that this phenomenon essentially reflects a socialization process, both the aforementioned effects were found to increase as subordinates' in-group identification increased, and as supervisors' adherence to dominant Western values (i.e., self-enhancement values) increased. Taken together, these results advocate the need to study performance goals in their social plenum, that is, adopting an interpersonal (i.e., studying the effects of goals between individuals), positional (i.e., between individuals from different social positions), and ideological (i.e., between individuals following specific norms and endorsing specific values) perspective.

Philo of Alexandria's De opificio mundi (LIII-LXI): discovering the essential features of Greek and Western Misogyny in a Platonising Jewish Text

The aim of this article is to show the Western centuries-old misogynist tradition from its origins in Greece by analysing a text by the allegorical interpreter of the Bible Philo of Alexandria, his De opifico mundi, which on many occasions is read by him from a Platonic point of view. The accurate analysis of the chapters devoted to the creation of the woman by God proves to what extent it is not possible to understand this text if one does not take into account a Greek philosophical tradition which was already centuries-old.

Anti-Hellenism and Anti-Classicism in Oscar Wilde's Works. The Second Pole of a Paradoxical Mind.

Thanks to a powerful intellectual weapon, paradox, Oscar Wilde also discovers the dark side of both Classicism and Hellenism. An accurate analysis of his works from the point of view of the Classical Tradition shows an Oscar Wilde who is quite different from the usual Philhellenic one and, above all, from the Platonic one. The aim of this article is to approach a theme which has been hardly studied by classical philologists, that is, anti-classicism and anti-hellenism as an intellectual urge.

In vivo evaluation of the anti-tumoral effect of sunitinib eluting beads in the rabbit VX2 tumor model

Purpose: To study the anti-tumoral effect of sunitinib eluting beads in the rabbit VX2 tumor modelMaterials: VX2 tumor were implanted in the left liver lobe of New-Zealand white rabbits. Seven animals received 0.2ml of DC Beads loaded with 6mg of sunitinb (group 1), 6 animals received 0.2ml of DC Beads (group 2) and 6 animals received NaCl 0.9% intra arterially in the left hepatic artery. One animal in each group was sacrificed at 24 hours and the others were left to survive. Liver enzyme were measured daily. In group 1 plasmatic sunitinib concentration were measured daily by LC MS/MS tandem mass spectroscopy. At day 15 all living animals were sacrficed. After sacrifice, or premature euthanasia the livers were harvested for determination of the VEGF receptor tyrosine kinase activity by western blot and histopathological examination.Results: In group 1, no animal died during follow-up. In group 2 and 3, respectively 2 and 3 animals died during follow-up. In group 1 plasmatic sunitinib level remained under therapeutic concentration during the whole experiment. There was an evident lack of phosphorylation of the RTK In group 1 and there was an augmentation of the RTK phosphorylation in group 2 at 24 hours. No difference in RTK activity was noticable at 15 days. From the histopathological point of view it was unpossible to differentiate treatment induced from spontaneous necrosis of tumors.Conclusions: Administration of sunitinib eluting Beads in VX2 carrying rabbits inhibits the activation of RTK's triggered by ischemia. It also seems to prolong survival of the treated animals.

Was the Classical Tradition Betrayed by J. Ivory's adaptation of E. M. Forster's "Maurice"?

According to Literature and Film studies and from the point of view of the influence of Classical Tradition on Western Culture -Classical Greek Tradition, in this case-, this article is an accurate analysis of the inevitable -to a certain degree- screenwriters betrayals regarding the literary texts that they adapt. However, in spite of being practically inevitable, Dr. Pau Gilabert Barberà indicates which are in his opinion the limits beyond which Ivory/Hesketh-Harvey should have not gone in order not to dilute the Hellenic temper of E. M. Forster's Maurice.

Leaving the cave in search of life (A Platonic reading of R. Sirera's La caverna (The Cave)

The aim of this article is to show how a contemporary playwright thinks once more of the Platonic image of the cave in order to reflect on the necessary existential journey of men and women as in the case of a Bildungsroman. Sooner or later men and women must abandon the protection that any sort of cavern such as home, the family garden or family itself can offer. In spite of writing from a by no means idealistic or metaphysical point of view, thanks to R. Sirera and to the very applicability of Platonic images, Plato becomes once again a classical reference which is both useful and even unavoidable if one bears in mind the Platonic origin of all the literary caverns.

Sugarcane trash management assessed by the interaction of yield with soil properties

Currently, sugarcane plays an important global role, particularly with a view to alternative energy sources. Thus, in a sugarcane field of the mill Vale do Paraná S/A Álcool e Açúcar, Rubineia, São Paulo State, managed under two green cane harvest systems (cane trash left on and cane trash removed from the soil), Pearson and spatial correlations between the sugarcane yield (variety RB855035 in the third cut) and soil physical and chemical properties were studied to identify the property best correlated with stalk yield and the best harvest method. For this purpose, two geostatistical grids (121 sampling points on 1.30 ha) were installed on a eutrophic Red Argisol (homogeneous slope of 0.065 m m-1), in 2011, to determine the properties: stalk yield and sugarcane plant population, and soil resistance to penetration, gravimetric moisture, bulk density, and carbon stock, in the layers 0-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m. The data were analyzed by descriptive, linear correlation and geostatistical analysis. In both treatments, the property stand density was best correlated with sugarcane yield (r = 0.725 in the trash mulching treatment - TM and r = 0.769 in the trash removal treatment - TR). However, in relation to the soil properties, bulk density (0-0.20 m) was best correlated (r = 0.305 in TM, r = 0.211 in TR). Similarly, from the spatial point of view, stand density was the property that best explained the sugarcane yield. However, in the TM treatment the density (0.20-0.40 m) was the only soil property spatially correlated with stalk yield. The carbon stock in the soil of the TM was 11.5 % higher than in the TR treatment. Results of the TM treatment were best, also with regard to soil management and conservation.

Invariant decomposition of the retarded electromagnetic field.

The integral representation of the electromagnetic two-form, defined on Minkowski space-time, is studied from a new point of view. The aim of the paper is to obtain an invariant criteria in order to define the radiative field. This criteria generalizes the well-known structureless charge case. We begin with the curvature two-form, because its field equations incorporate the motion of the sources. The gauge theory methods (connection one-forms) are not suited because their field equations do not incorporate the motion of the sources. We obtain an integral solution of the Maxwell equations in the case of a flow of charges in irrotational motion. This solution induces us to propose a new method of solving the problem of the nature of the retarded radiative field. This method is based on a projection tensor operator which, being local, is suited to being implemented on general relativity. We propose the field equations for the pair {electromagnetic field, projection tensor J. These field equations are an algebraic differential first-order system of oneforms, which verifies automatically the integrability conditions.