Améliorations et optimisation globale de la méthode des analogues pour la prévision statistique des précipitations. Développement d'un outil de prévision et application opérationnelle au bassin du Rhône à l'amont du Léman.

Le bassin du Rhône à l'amont du Léman peut être sujet à de fortes précipitations en mesure de provoquer des crues significatives. L'objectif du projet MINERVE dans lequel s'inscrit le présent travail consiste à fournir des outils pour la prévision et la gestion des crues par des actions préventives sur les aménagements hydroélectriques à accumulation. Pour satisfaire ce dernier, il est nécessaire de prévoir au mieux les cumuls de précipitations pour les jours suivants. Ceci est actuellement effectué par le modèle numérique de prévision de MétéoSuisse ; mais, en raison des grandes incertitudes liées à la quantification des événements extrêmes, il a été décidé qu'une approche parallèle de nature statistique pourrait compléter l'information disponible. Ainsi, nous avons adapté la méthode des analogues, qui est une technique de prévision statistique des précipitations, au contexte alpin du bassin d'étude. Pour ce faire, plusieurs paramétrisations de la méthode ont été documentées et calibrées. Afin de prendre en main la méthode, nous avons effectué de multiples analyses paramétriques sur les variables synoptiques, mais également sur la constitution de groupements pluviométriques. Une partie conséquente de cette étude a été consacrée à la programmation d'un logiciel de prévision automatique par la méthode des analogues, ainsi qu'à un outil de visualisation des résultats sous forme de cartes et graphiques. Ce logiciel, nommé Atmoswing, permet d'implémenter un grand nombre de méthodes différentes de prévision par analogie. L'outil est opérationnel depuis mi-2011 et nous a permis de confirmer l'intérêt de la prévision par analogie. La méthode étant ici appliquée à un nouveau contexte, un grand nombre de variables synoptiques ont été évaluées. Nous avons alors confirmé l'intérêt des deux niveaux d'analogie sur la circulation atmosphérique et sur le flux d'humidité, tout en apportant des améliorations à celles-ci. Il en résulte des paramétrisations présentant des scores de performance supérieurs aux méthodes de référence considérées. Nous avons également évalué d'autres améliorations, comme l'introduction d'une fenêtre temporelle glissante afin de rechercher de meilleures analogies synoptiques à d'autres heures de la journée, ce qui s'est avéré intéressant, tout comme une prévision infrajournalière à pas de temps de 6 h. Finalement, nous avons introduit une technique d'optimisation globale, les algorithmes génétiques, capable de calibrer la méthode des analogues en considérant tous les paramètres des différents niveaux d'analogie de manière conjointe. Avec cette technique, nous pouvons nous approcher objectivement d'une paramétrisation optimale. Le choix des niveaux atmosphériques et des fenêtres temporelles et spatiales étant automatisé, cette technique peut engendrer un gain de temps, même si elle est relativement exigeante en calculs. Nous avons ainsi pu améliorer la méthode des analogues, et y ajouter de nouveaux degrés de liberté, notamment des fenêtres spatiales et des pondérations différenciées selon les niveaux atmosphériques retenus.

Application by Waterford Institute of Technology for Designation as a University (Port Report)

This report provides our advice to the Minister for Education and Science on the application for designation as a university made by Waterford Institute of Technology (WIT). WIT submitted an application for designation in February 2006. There is a statutory procedure for the creation of a new university under Section 9 of the Universities Act 1997. We were asked to advise the Minister on the merits of the submission in order for her to provide guidance to Government on whether such a formal statutory review should be initiated. It is not a straightforward task to advise on this case for several reasons. These include the facts that: the regulatory environment for Institutes of Technology has changed significantly since WIT made their application; and the designation of any IoT would potentially challenge the government’s current higher education policy. So our report has to range more widely than the merits of the WIT application, taken at face value.

Cochrane Short Courses Training Application Form 2011

Application Form for Training Courses on Conducting Systematic Reviews, 2011.

Application of biochemical and polymerase chain reaction assays for identification of Campylobacter isolates from non-human primates

A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was performed on 167 thermophilic campylobacters isolated from non-human primates. Samples were first identified by phenotypic methods resulting in 64 Campylobacter jejuni and 103 C. coli strains. Four strains identified biochemically as C. coli, were then determined to be C. jejuni by PCR. Comparison of methodologies showed that the main discrepancies were attributed to the hippurate hydrolysis test and sensitivity to cephalothin and nalidixic acid. Analysis of data showed that the application of phenotypic methods should be supplemented by a molecular method to offer a more reliable Campylobacter identification.

Production, characterization, and application of antibodies against heat-labile type-I toxin for detection of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli

Strains of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are responsible for significant rates of morbidity and mortality among children, particularly in developing countries. The majority of clinical and public health laboratories are capable of isolating and identifying Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, and Escherichia coli O157:H7 from stool samples, but ETEC cannot be identified by routine methods. The method most often used to identify ETEC is polymerase chain reaction for heat-stable and heat-labile enterotoxin genes, and subsequent serotyping, but most clinical and public health laboratories do not have the capacity or resources to perform these tests. In this study, polyclonal rabbit and monoclonal mouse IgG2b antibodies against ETEC heat-labile toxin-I (LT) were characterized and the potential applicability of a capture assay was analyzed. IgG-enriched fractions from rabbit polyclonal and the IgG2b monoclonal antibodies recognized LT in a conformational shape and they were excellent tools for detection of LT-producing strains. These findings indicate that the capture immunoassay could be used as a diagnostic assay of ETEC LT-producing strains in routine diagnosis and in epidemiological studies of diarrhea in developing countries as enzyme linked immunosorbent assay techniques remain as effective and economical choice for the detection of specific pathogen antigens in cultures.

Application of synthetic peptides in development of a serologic method for laboratory diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni

The immunoreactivity of seven peptides synthesized from Schistosoma mansoni proteins, was evaluated by dot-blot and ELISA assays using two different sensitization methodologies. The best results were obtained on wells of the Costar 3590 microplates coated with peptides P1, P2, P3, P6, and P7 using conventional methodology. The signals increased considerably (p < 0.0003) on wells sensitized with P1 to P6 using alternative methodology. In contrast, the well coated with peptide P7 presented lower signal when compared with conventional methodology (p = 0.0019). These results, establish the basis for the application of synthetic peptides for laboratory diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni.

Application of PCR ribotyping and tDNA-PCR for Klebsiella pneumoniae identification

PCR analysis of 16S-23S internal transcribed spacer (PCR ribotyping) and tRNA intergenic spacer (tDNA-PCR) were evaluated for their effectiveness in identification of clinical strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae and differentiation with related species. For this purpose both methods were applied to forty-three clinical isolates biochemically identified as K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae isolated from patients clinical specimens attended at five hospitals in three Brazilian cities. References strains of K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae, K. pneumoniae subsp. ozaenae, K. oxytoca, K. planticola and Enterobacter aerogenes were also analyzed. Both PCR methods showed specific patterns for each species. A conserved PCR ribotype pattern was observed for all clinical K. pneumoniae isolates, while differing from other related analyzed species. tDNA-PCR revealed five distinct patterns among the K. pneumoniae clinical isolates studied, demonstrating a predominant group with 90,6% of isolates presenting the same pattern of K. pneumoniae type strain. Both PCR-based methods were not able to differentiate K. pneumoniae subspecies. On the basis of the results obtained, both methods were efficient to differentiate the Klebsiella species analyzed, as well as E. aerogenes. Meanwhile tDNA-PCR revealed different tRNA arrangements in K. pneumoniae, suggesting intra-species heterogeneity of their genome organization, the polymorphism of the intergenic spacers between 16S and 23S rRNA genes appears to be highly conserved whithin K. pneumoniae clinical isolates, showing that PCR ribotyping can be an useful tool for identification of K. pneumoniae isolates.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Identifying pesticide use patterns among flower growers to assess occupational exposure to mixtures

Objectives Exposure assessment to a single pesticide does not capture the complexity of the occupational exposure. Recently, pesticide use patterns analysis has emerged as an alternative to study these exposures. The aim of this study is to identify the pesticide use pattern among flower growers in Mexico participating in the study on the endocrine and reproductive effects associated with pesticide exposure. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out to gather retrospective information on pesticide use applying a questionnaire to the person in charge of the participating flower growing farms. Information about seasonal frequency of pesticide use (rainy and dry) for the years 2004 and 2005 was obtained. Principal components analysis was performed. Results Complete information was obtained for 88 farms and 23 pesticides were included in the analysis. Six principal components were selected, which explained more than 70% of the data variability. The identified pesticide use patterns during both years were: 1. fungicides benomyl, carbendazim, thiophanate and metalaxyl (both seasons), including triadimephon during the rainy season, chlorotalonyl and insecticide permethrin during the dry season; 2. insecticides oxamyl, biphenthrin and fungicide iprodione (both seasons), including insecticide methomyl during the dry season; 3. fungicide mancozeb and herbicide glyphosate (only during the rainy season); 4. insecticides metamidophos and parathion (both seasons); 5. insecticides omethoate and methomyl (only rainy season); and 6. insecticides abamectin and carbofuran (only dry season). Some pesticides do not show a clear pattern of seasonal use during the studied years. Conclusions The principal component analysis is useful to summarise a large set of exposure variables into smaller groups of exposure patterns, identifying the mixtures of pesticides in the occupational environment that may have an interactive effect on a particular health effect.