On the use of principal components in contemporany population genetics: a case study

In human Population Genetics, routine applications of principal component techniques are oftenrequired. Population biologists make widespread use of certain discrete classifications of humansamples into haplotypes, the monophyletic units of phylogenetic trees constructed from severalsingle nucleotide bimorphisms hierarchically ordered. Compositional frequencies of the haplotypesare recorded within the different samples. Principal component techniques are then required as adimension-reducing strategy to bring the dimension of the problem to a manageable level, say two,to allow for graphical analysis.Population biologists at large are not aware of the special features of compositional data and normally make use of the crude covariance of compositional relative frequencies to construct principalcomponents. In this short note we present our experience with using traditional linear principalcomponents or compositional principal components based on logratios, with reference to a specificdataset

Tests for sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited genetic markers.

Understanding why dispersal is sex-biased in many taxa is still a major concern in evolutionary ecology. Dispersal tends to be male-biased in mammals and female-biased in birds, but counter-examples exist and little is known about sex bias in other taxa. Obtaining accurate measures of dispersal in the field remains a problem. Here we describe and compare several methods for detecting sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited, codominant genetic markers. If gene flow is restricted among populations, then the genotype of an individual tells something about its origin. Provided that dispersal occurs at the juvenile stage and that sampling is carried out on adults, genotypes sampled from the dispersing sex should on average be less likely (compared to genotypes from the philopatric sex) in the population in which they were sampled. The dispersing sex should be less genetically structured and should present a larger heterozygote deficit. In this study we use computer simulations and a permutation test on four statistics to investigate the conditions under which sex-biased dispersal can be detected. Two tests emerge as fairly powerful. We present results concerning the optimal sampling strategy (varying number of samples, individuals, loci per individual and level of polymorphism) under different amounts of dispersal for each sex. These tests for biases in dispersal are also appropriate for any attribute (e.g. size, colour, status) suspected to influence the probability of dispersal. A windows program carrying out these tests can be freely downloaded from http://www.unil.ch/izea/softwares/fstat.html

News from compositions, the R package

The R-package “compositions”is a tool for advanced compositional analysis. Its basicfunctionality has seen some conceptual improvement, containing now some facilitiesto work with and represent ilr bases built from balances, and an elaborated subsys-tem for dealing with several kinds of irregular data: (rounded or structural) zeroes,incomplete observations and outliers. The general approach to these irregularities isbased on subcompositions: for an irregular datum, one can distinguish a “regular” sub-composition (where all parts are actually observed and the datum behaves typically)and a “problematic” subcomposition (with those unobserved, zero or rounded parts, orelse where the datum shows an erratic or atypical behaviour). Systematic classificationschemes are proposed for both outliers and missing values (including zeros) focusing onthe nature of irregularities in the datum subcomposition(s).To compute statistics with values missing at random and structural zeros, a projectionapproach is implemented: a given datum contributes to the estimation of the desiredparameters only on the subcompositon where it was observed. For data sets withvalues below the detection limit, two different approaches are provided: the well-knownimputation technique, and also the projection approach.To compute statistics in the presence of outliers, robust statistics are adapted to thecharacteristics of compositional data, based on the minimum covariance determinantapproach. The outlier classification is based on four different models of outlier occur-rence and Monte-Carlo-based tests for their characterization. Furthermore the packageprovides special plots helping to understand the nature of outliers in the dataset.Keywords: coda-dendrogram, lost values, MAR, missing data, MCD estimator,robustness, rounded zeros

Total hemoglobin mass--a new parameter to detect blood doping?

PURPOSE: All kinds of blood manipulations aim to increase the total hemoglobin mass (tHb-mass). To establish tHb-mass as an effective screening parameter for detecting blood doping, the knowledge of its normal variation over time is necessary. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to determine the intraindividual variance of tHb-mass in elite athletes during a training year emphasizing off, training, and race seasons at sea level. METHODS: tHb-mass and hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) were determined in 24 endurance athletes five times during a year and were compared with a control group (n = 6). An analysis of covariance was used to test the effects of training phases, age, gender, competition level, body mass, and training volume. Three error models, based on 1) a total percentage error of measurement, 2) the combination of a typical percentage error (TE) of analytical origin with an absolute SD of biological origin, and 3) between-subject and within-subject variance components as obtained by an analysis of variance, were tested. RESULTS: In addition to the expected influence of performance status, the main results were that the effects of training volume (P = 0.20) and training phases (P = 0.81) on tHb-mass were not significant. We found that within-subject variations mainly have an analytical origin (TE approximately 1.4%) and a very small SD (7.5 g) of biological origin. CONCLUSION: tHb-mass shows very low individual oscillations during a training year (<6%), and these oscillations are below the expected changes in tHb-mass due to Herythropoetin (EPO) application or blood infusion (approximately 10%). The high stability of tHb-mass over a period of 1 year suggests that it should be included in an athlete's biological passport and analyzed by recently developed probabilistic inference techniques that define subject-based reference ranges.

Parvovirus B19 antibodies and correlates of infection in pregnant women attending an antenatal clinic in central Nigeria

Human parvovirus B19 infection is associated with spontaneous abortion, hydrops foetalis, intrauterine foetal death, erythema infectiosum (5th disease), aplastic crisis and acute symmetric polyarthropathy. However, data concerning Nigerian patients with B19 infection have not been published yet. The purpose of this study was to establish the prevalence of B19 IgG and IgM antibodies, including correlates of infection, among pregnant women attending an antenatal clinic in Nigeria. Subsequent to clearance from an ethical committee, blood samples were collected between August-November 2008 from 273 pregnant women between the ages of 15-40 years who have given their informed consent and completed self-administered questionnaires. Recombinant IgG and IgM enzyme linked immunosorbent assay kits (Demeditec Diagnostics, Germany) were used for the assays. Out of the 273 participants, 111 (40.7%) had either IgG or IgM antibodies. Out of these, 75 (27.5%) had IgG antibodies whereas 36 (13.2%) had IgM antibodies, and those aged 36-40 years had the highest prevalence of IgG antibodies. Significant determinants of infection (p < 0.05) included the receipt of a blood transfusion, occupation and the presence of a large number of children in the household. Our findings have important implications for transfusion and foeto-maternal health policy in Nigeria. Routine screening for B19 IgM antibodies and accompanying clinical management of positive cases should be made mandatory for all Nigerian blood donors and women of childbearing age.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Recherche translationnelle: de l'animal modèle de schizophrénie à la forme humaine de difficulté cognitive. Evaluation des performances de navigation spatiale et des stratégies utilisées

Un protocole de tests sur labyrinthe radial permettant d'évaluer la navigation spatial chez l'homme a été réalisé. Ces tests sur labyrinthe radial sont basés sur le protocole utilisé sur l'animal modèle de schizophrénie dans le CNP (Centre de neuroscience psychiatrique) de Lausanne. Les recherches actuelles du CNP ont montré un déficit dans les capacités d'orientation spatiale de ces animaux [13]. Ainsi notre méthodologie consistera à tester des sujets humains dans des tâches de labyrinthe afin d'étudier de la manière la plus équivalente les différents déficits observés dans la pathologie humaine et dans le rat modèle. Cette démarche est à la base d'une approche translationnelle qui combine recherches cliniques et expérimentales. Le travail expérimental a été mené sur deux dispositifs analogues. a) «radial au doigt», ensemble de petits canaux qui peuvent être explorés par le doigt, yeux ouverts ou fermés et dans lesquels des textures différentes tapissent chaque bras. b) «radial sur écran tactile», deux labyrinthes qui comparent deux types d'indice locale, couleurs différentes ou patrons noir-blanc. Dans les deux dispositifs a été prévu une série de tests permettant d'évaluer la mémorisation des indices utilisés en les supprimant temporairement où en les mettant en contradiction. La première perturbation a pour but de tester l'importance du référentiel locale par une rotation de 90° du labyrinthe. La permutation des bras lors d'un dernier essai permet d'induire une situation ou les informations ont été soit correctes spatialement mais incorrectes localement (texture) soit inversement. Ces perturbations des informations sensorielles qui sont fournies au sujet, permettent d'observer les systèmes de repérage et leur poids relatif dans la construction d'un système de référence durant la navigation spatiale. Les résultats du labyrinthe radial au doigt montrent que dans les conditions utilisant les informations visuelles les participants sont sensiblement plus performants. Il est apparu que les informations visuelles prédominent sur les informations proprioceptives et tactiles. Ainsi dans la condition intégrant informations visuospatiales, proprioceptives et tactiles, les sujets basent plus fortement leur navigation spatiale sur les indices visuelles soit locale soit spatiale. Dans cette condition une différence significative de stratégie entre hommes et femmes est apparue. Les hommes se basent majoritairement sur des indices spatiaux tandis que les femmes préfèrent les indices locaux. En présence d'informations tactiles et proprioceptives mais en absence de la vision, les participants utilisent les références spatiale et locale complémentairement sans avoir un système prédominant. Alors que si uniquement les informations proprioceptives sont présentes, les sujets utilisent un système de référence spatiale (globale). Le labyrinthe radial sur écran tactile indique une différence de système de référence selon l'indice local employé. Les couleurs, étant des forts indices locaux, vont favoriser un système de référence local. Au contraire les patrons noirs-blancs sont des indices visiblement très complexes et difficiles à mémoriser qui vont pousser les sujets à utiliser une stratégie de référence spatiale.

Fine mapping and functional analysis of the multiple sclerosis risk gene CD6.

CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2(nd) SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (P max(T) permutation = 1×10(-4)). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. - CD4(+) naïve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8(+) naïve cells, P<0.0001; CD4(+) and CD8(+) central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells.

Leontief versus Ghosh: two faces of the same coin

In this paper we explore the sectoral and aggregate implications of some endogeneization rules (i.e. on value-added and final demand) which have been common in the Leontief model and have been recently proposed in the Ghosh model. We detect that these rules may give rise in both models to some allegedly pathological behavior in the sense that sectoral or aggregate output, very often, may not follow the logical and economically expected direct relationship with some underlying endogenous variables—namely, output and value-added in the Ghosh model and output and consumption in the Leontief model. Because of the common mathematical structure, whatever is or seems to be pathological in the Ghosh model also has a symmetric counterpart in the Leontief model. These would not be good news for the inner consistency of these linear models. To avoid such possible inconsistencies, we propose new and simple endogeneization rules that have a sound economic interpretation.

Schwarz methods for a preconditioned WOPSIP method for elliptic problems

We construct and analyze non-overlapping Schwarz methods for a preconditioned weakly over-penalized symmetric interior penalty (WOPSIP) method for elliptic problems.

Consumption of vegetables, fruit and other plant foods in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts from 10 European countries.

OBJECTIVE To describe and compare the consumption of the main groups and sub-groups of vegetables and fruits (V&F) in men and women from the centres participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis. Dietary intake was assessed by means of a 24-hour dietary recall using computerised interview software and standardised procedures. Crude and adjusted means were computed for the main groups and sub-groups of V&F by centre, separately for men and women. Adjusted means by season, day of the week and age were estimated using weights and covariance analysis. SETTING Twenty-seven centres in 10 European countries participating in the EPIC project. SUBJECTS In total, 35 955 subjects (13 031 men and 22 924 women), aged 35-74 years, randomly selected from each EPIC cohort. RESULTS The centres from southern countries had the highest consumption of V&F, while the lowest intake was seen in The Netherlands and Scandinavia for both genders. These differences were more evident for fruits, particularly citrus. However, slightly different patterns arose for some sub-groups of vegetables, such as root vegetables and cabbage. Adjustment for body mass index, physical activity, smoking habits and education did not substantially modify the mean intakes of vegetables and fruits. CONCLUSIONS Total vegetable and fruit intake follows a south-north gradient in both genders, whereas for several sub-groups of vegetables a different geographic distribution exists. Differences in mean intake of V&F by centre were not explained by lifestyle factors associated with V&F intake.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Functional MRI Mapping of the Human Auditory Cortex

Mapping the human auditory cortex with standard functional imaging techniques is difficult because of its small size and angular position along the Sylvian fissure. As a result, the exact number and location of auditory cortex areas in the human remains unknown. In a first experiment, we measured the two largest tonotopic areas of primary auditory cortex (PAC, Al and R) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 Tesla relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG). The data reveals a clear anatomical- functional relationship that indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplication and complete duplication). Human PAC tonotopic areas are oriented along an oblique posterior-to-anterior axis with mirror-symmetric frequency gradients perpendicular to HG, as in the macaque. In a second experiment, we tested whether these primary frequency-tuned units were modulated by selective attention to preferred vs. non-preferred sound frequencies in the dynamic manner needed to account for human listening abilities in noisy environments, such as cocktail parties or busy streets. We used a dual-stream selective attention experiment where subjects attended to one of two competing tonal streams presented simultaneously to different ears. Attention to low-frequency tones (250 Hz) enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high (4000 Hz), and vice versa when at-tention switched from high to low. Human PAC is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch frequencies on demand, like a radio. In a third experiment, we investigated repetition suppression effects to environmental sounds within primary and non-primary early-stage auditory areas, identified with the tonotopic mapping design. Repeated presentations of sounds from the same sources, as compared to different sources, gave repetition suppression effects within posterior and medial non-primary areas of the right hemisphere, reflecting their potential involvement in semantic representations. These three studies were conducted at 7 Tesla with high-resolution imaging. However, 7 Tesla scanners are, for the moment, not yet used for clinical diagnosis and mostly reside in institutions external to hospitals. Thus, hospital-based clinical functional and structural studies are mainly performed using lower field systems (1.5 or 3 Tesla). In a fourth experiment, we acquired tonotopic maps at 3 and 7 Tesla and evaluated the consistency of a tonotopic mapping paradigm between scanners. Mirror-symmetric gradients within PAC were highly similar at 7 and 3 Tesla across renderings at different spatial resolutions. We concluded that the tonotopic mapping paradigm is robust and suitable for definition of primary tonotopic areas, also at 3 Tesla. Finally, in a fifth study, we considered whether focal brain lesions alter tonotopic representations in the intact ipsi- and contralesional primary auditory cortex in three patients with hemispheric or cerebellar lesions, without and with auditory complaints. We found evidence for tonotopic reorganisation at the level of the primary auditory cortex in cases of brain lesions independently of auditory complaints. Overall, these results reflect a certain degree of plasticity within primary auditory cortex in different populations of subjects, assessed at different field strengths. - La cartographie du cortex auditif chez l'humain est difficile à réaliser avec des techniques d'imagerie fonctionnelle standard, étant donné sa petite taille et position angulaire le long de la fissure sylvienne. En conséquence, le nombre et l'emplacement exacts des différentes aires du cortex auditif restent inconnus chez l'homme. Lors d'une première expérience, nous avons mesuré, avec de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique à haute intensité (IRMf à 7 Tesla) chez des sujets humains sains, deux larges aires au sein du cortex auditif primaire (PAC; Al et R) avec une représentation spécifique des fréquences pures préférées - ou tonotopie. Nos résultats ont démontré une relation anatomico- fonctionnelle qui définit clairement la position du PAC à travers toutes les variantes du gyrus d'Heschl's (HG). Les aires tonotopiques du PAC humain sont orientées le long d'un axe postéro-antérieur oblique avec des gradients de fréquences spécifiques perpendiculaires à HG, d'une manière similaire à celles mesurées chez le singe. Dans une deuxième expérience, nous avons testé si ces aires primaires pouvaient être modulées, de façon dynamique, par une attention sélective pour des fréquences préférées par rapport à celles non-préférées. Cette modulation est primordiale lors d'interactions sociales chez l'humain en présence de bruits distracteurs tels que d'autres discussions ou un environnement sonore nuisible (comme par exemple, dans la circulation routière). Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé une expérience d'attention sélective où le sujet devait être attentif à une des deux voies sonores présentées simultanément à chaque oreille. Lorsque le sujet portait était attentif aux sons de basses fréquences (250 Hz), la réponse neuronale relative à ces fréquences augmentait par rapport à celle des hautes fréquences (4000 Hz), et vice versa lorsque l'attention passait des hautes aux basses fréquences. De ce fait, nous pouvons dire que PAC est capable de focaliser sur la fréquence attendue et de changer de canal selon la demande, comme une radio. Lors d'une troisième expérience, nous avons étudié les effets de suppression due à la répétition de sons environnementaux dans les aires auditives primaires et non-primaires, d'abord identifiées via le protocole de la première étude. La présentation répétée de sons provenant de la même source sonore, par rapport à de sons de différentes sources sonores, a induit un effet de suppression dans les aires postérieures et médiales auditives non-primaires de l'hémisphère droite, reflétant une implication de ces aires dans la représentation de la catégorie sémantique. Ces trois études ont été réalisées avec de l'imagerie à haute résolution à 7 Tesla. Cependant, les scanners 7 Tesla ne sont pour le moment utilisés que pour de la recherche fondamentale, principalement dans des institutions externes, parfois proches du patient mais pas directement à son chevet. L'imagerie fonctionnelle et structurelle clinique se fait actuellement principalement avec des infrastructures cliniques à 1.5 ou 3 Tesla. Dans le cadre dune quatrième expérience, nous avons avons évalués la cohérence du paradigme de cartographie tonotopique à travers différents scanners (3 et 7 Tesla) chez les mêmes sujets. Nos résultats démontrent des gradients de fréquences définissant PAC très similaires à 3 et 7 Tesla. De ce fait, notre paradigme de définition des aires primaires auditives est robuste et applicable cliniquement. Finalement, nous avons évalués l'impact de lésions focales sur les représentations tonotopiques des aires auditives primaires des hémisphères intactes contralésionales et ipsilésionales chez trois patients avec des lésions hémisphériques ou cérébélleuses avec ou sans plaintes auditives. Nous avons trouvé l'évidence d'une certaine réorganisation des représentations topographiques au niveau de PAC dans le cas de lésions cérébrales indépendamment des plaintes auditives. En conclusion, nos résultats démontrent une certaine plasticité du cortex auditif primaire avec différentes populations de sujets et différents champs magnétiques.

Inferring ultraviolet anatomical exposure patterns while distinguishing the relative contribution of radiation components

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors, but individual exposure data remain scarce. While ground UV irradiance is monitored via different techniques, it is difficult to translate such observations into human UV exposure or dose because of confounding factors. A multi-disciplinary collaboration developed a model predicting the dose and distribution of UV exposure on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a simulation tool that estimates solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by various body locations is computed for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation separately. Dosimetric measurements obtained in field conditions were used to assess the model performance. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately with a symmetric mean absolute percentage error of 13% and half of the predictions within 17% range of the measurements. Using this tool, solar UV exposure patterns were investigated with respect to the relative contribution of the direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. Exposure doses for various body parts and exposure scenarios of a standing individual were assessed using erythemally-weighted UV ground irradiance data measured in 2009 at Payerne, Switzerland as input. For most anatomical sites, mean daily doses were high (typically 6.2-14.6 Standard Erythemal Dose, SED) and exceeded recommended exposure values. Direct exposure was important during specific periods (e. g. midday during summer), but contributed moderately to the annual dose, ranging from 15 to 24% for vertical and horizontal body parts, respectively. Diffuse irradiation explained about 80% of the cumulative annual exposure dose.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified