Tests for Comparing Mark-Specific Hazards and Cumulative Incidence Functions

It is of interest in some applications to determine whether there is a relationship between a hazard rate function (or a cumulative incidence function) and a mark variable which is only observed at uncensored failure times. We develop nonparametric tests for this problem when the mark variable is continuous. Tests are developed for the null hypothesis that the mark-specific hazard rate is independent of the mark versus ordered and two-sided alternatives expressed in terms of mark-specific hazard functions and mark-specific cumulative incidence functions. The test statistics are based on functionals of a bivariate test process equal to a weighted average of differences between a Nelson--Aalen-type estimator of the mark-specific cumulative hazard function and a nonparametric estimator of this function under the null hypothesis. The weight function in the test process can be chosen so that the test statistics are asymptotically distribution-free.Asymptotically correct critical values are obtained through a simple simulation procedure. The testing procedures are shown to perform well in numerical studies, and are illustrated with an AIDS clinical trial example. Specifically, the tests are used to assess if the instantaneous or absolute risk of treatment failure depends on the amount of accumulation of drug resistance mutations in a subject's HIV virus. This assessment helps guide development of anti-HIV therapies that surmount the problem of drug resistance.

The incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura-hemolytic uremic syndrome: all patients, idiopathic patients, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency

Summary. Background: Accurate estimates of the incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) are important to assess the resources required for current treatments as well as to anticipate the need to develop new treatments. Previous estimates have been indirect and have not reported data on patients with ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Objective: To determine the incidence of patients with TTP-hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) in three categories: all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Methods: Incidence rates were estimated from the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry, analyzing all 206 consecutive patients from January 1, 1996 to June 30, 2004 who were treated with plasma exchange for their initial episode of clinically suspected TTP-HUS. ADAMTS-13 activity was measured in 186 (90%) of the 206 patients. Results: The age–sex–race standardized annual incidence rates were 11.29 × 106 (95% CI: 9.70–12.88) for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS; 4.46 × 106 (95% CI: 3.43–5.50) for patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS; and 1.74 × 106 (95% CI: 1.06–2.41) for patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency (<5% activity). In all three categories, the incidence rates were greater for women and for blacks. For patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency, the age–sex standardized incidence rate ratio of blacks to non-blacks was 9.29 (95% CI: 4.33–19.93). Conclusions: Accurate incidence rate estimates for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, idiopathic TTP-HUS, and TTP associated with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency have been determined. The greater incidence among women and blacks is comparable with their increased risk for other autoimmune disorders.

[The incidence of Dicrocoelium dendriticum in Emmental]

A cross-sectional field study on the prevalence of Dicrocoelium dendriticum was performed in the Emmental. The study included 211 bovines, 170 equines, 20 ovines, 46 caprines and 23 rabbits (from 119 farms). In addition, laboratory routine diagnostic data obtained from 2.840 animals--all originating from the same area of investigation--were assessed in the same way. The infection extent concerning the different animal species were the following: bovines 46%, equines 12%, ovines 30%, caprines 48% and rabbits 9%. Univariate analyses of baseline epidemiological data identified no significant risk factors, with the exception of the type of stable used. Bovines kept in a modern free ranging stable had a significantly lower chance of infection with D. dendriticum than cattle in conventional tie stalls. The epidemiological data characterizing the area of investigation suggest the following procedure to reduce the problem of dicrocoeliosis: Pasturing animals of all ages should be regularly dewormed (e.g. every six week during pasture) using a compound effective against D. dendriticum. A treatment is especially indicated at the time after pasture in autumn or before housing the animals in winter. In spring, only animals having pastured the year before need to be treated prior to pasture in the new year. However, it is recommended to perform an economic analysis comparing costs of treatment versus putative costs of damage prior to the initiation of a strategic campaign: animal welfare aspects have to be considered. The laboratory routine diagnostic data showed infection extent similar to those of the cross-sectional study: bovines 60%, equines 24%, ovines 26%, caprines 31%, rabbits 32%. Atypical hosts such as dogs and cats exhibited low infection extent (3% and 1%, respectively), rather reflecting a gastro-intestinal passage of parasite eggs ingested by consumption of infected livers or by coprophagy of ruminant faeces.

Prospectively assessed incidence, severity, and determinants of respiratory symptoms in the first year of life

Respiratory symptoms are common in infancy. Nevertheless, few prospective birth cohort studies have studied the epidemiology of respiratory symptoms in normal infants. The aim of this study was to prospectively obtain reliable data on incidence, severity, and determinants of common respiratory symptoms (including cough and wheeze) in normal infants and to determine factors associated with these symptoms. In a prospective population-based birth cohort, we assessed respiratory symptoms during the first year of life by weekly phone calls to the mothers. Poisson regression was used to examine the association between symptoms and various risk factors. In the first year of life, respiratory symptoms occurred in 181/195 infants (93%), more severe symptoms in 89 (46%). The average infant had respiratory symptoms for 4 weeks and 90% had symptoms for less than 12 weeks (range 0 to 23). Male sex, higher birth weight, maternal asthma, having older siblings and nursery care were associated with more, maternal hay fever with fewer respiratory symptoms. The association with prenatal maternal smoking decreased with time since birth. This study provides reliable data on the frequency of cough and wheeze during the first year of life in healthy infants; this may help in the interpretation of published hospital and community-based studies. The apparently reduced risk in children of mothers with hayfever but no asthma, and the decreasing effect of prenatal smoke exposure over time illustrate the complexity of respiratory pathology in the first year of life.

Cost effectiveness of home based population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in the UK: economic evaluation of chlamydia screening studies (ClaSS) project

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost effectiveness of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis compared with a policy of no organised screening in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Economic evaluation using a transmission dynamic mathematical model. SETTING: Central and southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical population of 50,000 men and women, in which all those aged 16-24 years were invited to be screened each year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost effectiveness based on major outcomes averted, defined as pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, or neonatal complications. RESULTS: The incremental cost per major outcome averted for a programme of screening women only (assuming eight years of screening) was 22,300 pounds (33,000 euros; $45,000) compared with no organised screening. For a programme screening both men and women, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio was approximately 28,900 pounds. Pelvic inflammatory disease leading to hospital admission was the most frequently averted major outcome. The model was highly sensitive to the incidence of major outcomes and to uptake of screening. When both were increased the cost effectiveness ratio fell to 6200 pound per major outcome averted for screening women only. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive register based screening for chlamydia is not cost effective if the uptake of screening and incidence of complications are based on contemporary empirical studies, which show lower rates than commonly assumed. These data are relevant to discussions about the cost effectiveness of the opportunistic model of chlamydia screening being introduced in England.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Factors associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in HIV-infected participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons may be at increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus because of viral coinfection and adverse effects of treatment. METHODS: We studied associations of new-onset diabetes mellitus with hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus coinfections and antiretroviral therapy in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, using Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 123 of 6513 persons experienced diabetes mellitus during 27,798 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), resulting in an incidence of 4.4 cases per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7-5.3 cases per 1000 PYFU). An increased incidence rate ratio (IRR) was found for male subjects (IRR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.2), older age (IRR for subjects >60 years old, 4.3; 95% CI, 2.3-8.2), black (IRR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1-4.0) and Asian (IRR, 4.9; 95% CI, 2.2-10.9) ethnicity, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disease stage C (IRR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.04-2.4), and obesity (IRR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1-7.0), but results for hepatitis C virus infection or active hepatitis B virus infection were inconclusive. Strong associations were found for current treatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (IRR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.11-4.45), nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus protease inhibitors (IRR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.42-4.31), and nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus protease inhibitors and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (IRR, 3.25; 95% CI, 1.59-6.67) but were not found for treatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (IRR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.77-2.82). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to traditional risk factors, current treatment with protease inhibitor- and nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-containing regimens was associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our study did not find a significant association between viral hepatitis infection and risk of incident diabetes.

Modulation of allergy incidence in icelandic horses is associated with a change in IL-4-producing T cells

BACKGROUND: Equine insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an immediate-type hypersensitivity reaction provoked by insect-derived allergens. Icelandic horses living in Iceland do not have IBH due to absence of relevant insects, but acquire it at high frequency after being imported to mainland Europe. In contrast, their offspring born in mainland Europe has reduced IBH incidence. T helper 1 (Th1) and Th2 cells and cytokines were determined in Icelandic horses born in Iceland and on the continent and which either have IBH or are healthy. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from these horses were stimulated for 18 h during summer and winter with polyclonal T cell stimuli, IBH allergen(s) or irrelevant allergen(s). Cells were analysed by flow cytometry for interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) and interleukin-4 (IL-4); RNA was analysed for IFN-gamma, IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13 mRNA. RESULTS: During summer, but not during winter, IBH PBMC stimulated polyclonally showed reduced IFN-gamma mRNA and IFN-gamma-producing cells when compared with those of healthy horses, regardless of origin. PBMC stimulated polyclonally or with IBH allergen showed increased IL-4 mRNA levels and higher numbers of IL-4-producing cells when born in Iceland or showing IBH symptoms. IL-5 and IL-13 mRNA were modulated neither by disease nor by origin. Abrogation of IL-4 production in healthy horses born in mainland Europe may be due, at least in part, to IL-10. There was an increased level of IL-10 in supernatants from PBMC of healthy horses born in mainland Europe and stimulated polyclonally or with IBH allergen. CONCLUSIONS: Modulation of IBH incidence is governed by altered Th1/Th2 ratio, which might be influenced by IL-10.

Reduced incidence of insect-bite hypersensitivity in Icelandic horses is associated with a down-regulation of interleukin-4 by interleukin-10 and transforming growth factor-beta1

Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an allergic dermatitis of horses caused by IgE-mediated reactions to bites of insects of the genus Culicoides. IBH does not occur in Iceland due to the absence of Culicoides. However, Icelandic horses exported to mainland Europe as adults (1st generation) have a >/=50% incidence of developing IBH. In contrast, their progeny (2nd generation) has a <10% incidence of IBH. Here we show that peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from Icelandic horses born in mainland Europe and belonging either to the IBH or healthy subgroup produce less interleukin (IL)-4 after polyclonal or allergen-specific stimulation when compared with counterparts from horses born in Iceland. We examined a role of IL-10 and transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta1 in down-regulation of IL-4 in healthy 2nd generation Icelandic horses. Supernatants of PBMC from 2nd generation healthy horses down-regulated the proportion of IL-4-producing cells and IL-4 production in stimulated cultures of PBMC from 1st generation IBH. This inhibition was mimicked by a combination of IL-10 and TGF-beta1 but not by the single cytokines. Cultures of stimulated PBMC of healthy 2nd generation horses produced a low level of IL-4, but IL-4 production was increased by anti-equine IL-10 and anti-human TGF-beta1. This shows for the first time that in horses, IL-10 and TGF-beta1 combined regulate IL-4 production in vitro. It is suggested that in this naturally occurring IgE-mediated allergy, IL-10 and TGF-beta1 have a role in the down-regulation of IL-4-induced allergen-specific Th2 cells, thereby reducing the incidence of IBH.

Comparison of analgesic efficacy of preoperative or postoperative carprofen with or without preincisional mepivacaine epidural anesthesia in canine pelvic or femoral fracture repair

OBJECTIVE: To compare analgesic efficacy of preoperative versus postoperative administration of carprofen and to determine, if preincisional mepivacaine epidural anesthesia improves postoperative analgesia in dogs treated with carprofen. STUDY DESIGN: Blind, randomized clinical study. ANIMALS: Dogs with femoral (n=18) or pelvic (27) fractures. METHODS: Dogs were grouped by restricted randomization into 4 groups: group 1 = carprofen (4 mg/kg subcutaneously) immediately before induction of anesthesia, no epidural anesthesia; group 2 = carprofen immediately after extubation, no epidural anesthesia; group 3 = carprofen immediately before induction, mepivacaine epidural block 15 minutes before surgical incision; and group 4 = mepivacaine epidural block 15 minutes before surgical incision, carprofen after extubation. All dogs were administered carprofen (4 mg/kg, subcutaneously, once daily) for 4 days after surgery. Physiologic variables, nociceptive threshold, lameness score, pain, and sedation (numerical rating scale [NRS], visual analog scale [VAS]), plasma glucose and cortisol concentration, renal function, and hemostatic variables were measured preoperatively and at various times after surgery. Dogs with VAS pain scores >30 were administered rescue analgesia. RESULTS: Group 3 and 4 dogs had significantly lower pain scores and amount of rescue analgesia compared with groups 1 and 2. VAS and NRS pain scores were not significantly different among groups 1 and 2 or among groups 3 and 4. There was no treatment effect on renal function and hemostatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative carprofen combined with mepivacaine epidural anesthesia had superior postoperative analgesia compared with preoperative carprofen alone. When preoperative epidural anesthesia was performed, preoperative administration of carprofen did not improve postoperative analgesia compared with postoperative administration of carprofen. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Preoperative administration of systemic opioid agonists in combination with regional anesthesia and postoperative administration of carprofen provides safe and effective pain relieve in canine fracture repair.

Incidence of low central venous oxygen saturation during unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: It has been shown that early central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2)-guided optimization of hemodynamics can improve outcome in septic patients. The early ScvO2 profile of other patient groups is unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU) with respect to ScvO2 and outcome. METHODS: Ninety-eight consecutive unplanned admissions to a multidisciplinary ICU (median age 63 [range 19 to 83] years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS II] 43 [range 11 to 92]) with a clinical indication for a central venous catheter were included in the study. ScvO2 was assessed at ICU arrival and six hours later but was not used to guide treatment. Length of stay in ICU (LOSICU) and in hospital (LOShospital) and 28-day mortality were recorded. RESULTS: ScvO2 was 70% +/- 12% (mean +/- standard deviation) at admission and 71% +/- 10% six hours later (p = 0.484). Overall 28-day mortality was 18%, LOSICU was 3 (1 to 28) days, and LOShospital was 19 (1 to 28) days. Patients with an ScvO2 of less than 60% at admission had higher mortality than patients with an ScvO2 of more than 60% (29% versus 17%, p < 0.05). Changes in ScvO2 during the first six hours were not predictive of LOSICU, LOShospital, or mortality. CONCLUSION: Low ScvO2 in unplanned admissions and high SAPS II are associated with increased mortality. Standard ICU treatment increased ScvO2 in patients with a low admission ScvO2, but the increase was not associated with LOSICU or LOShospital.

The influence of measles vaccination on the incidence of otosclerosis in Germany

The pathologic process of otosclerosis is characterized by an inflammatory lytic phase followed by an abnormal bone remodeling at very specific sites of predilection. There is a clear genetic predisposition with about half of all cases occurring in families with more than one affected member. Females are affected more frequently than males with an approximate 2:1 ratio. N, H, and F measles proteins as well as measles virus RNA have been demonstrated in osteoblasts, chondroblasts, and macrophages of the inflammatory phase of the disease. These observations merely show an association between measles viruses and otosclerosis. In the present study, we tried to prove that there is a causal relationship: voluntary measles vaccination has been available in Germany since 1974. In the absence of official data, we reconstructed the rate of vaccination coverage between 1974 and 2004 using information from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI, Berlin) and from the literature. From the German Federal Office of Statistics, we received the data of 64,112 patients who had been hospitalized between 1993 and 2004 and in whom otosclerosis (ICD-9: 387; ICD-10: H80) had been confirmed. We calculated the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the period from 1993 to 2004 in Germany. For this purpose, we divided the female and male otosclerosis patients treated as inpatients each year in the observation period into two age groups: those up to 25 years, who had in most cases been vaccinated (designated below as "vaccinated patients") and those over 25 years who mostly could not have been vaccinated (designated below as "unvaccinated patients"). We calculated the incidence of otosclerosis requiring inpatient treatment for the two age groups in each year in the period of observation. For external validation of the study results, the same analysis was carried out in all patients who received inpatient treatment for otitis media in the same period. Between 1993 and 2004 the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis decreased to a significantly greater extent in the vaccinated patients than in the unvaccinated patients. The decline is much greater in men than in women. A comparable effect cannot be demonstrated in patients with otitis media. The results indicate that measles vaccination in Germany has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the vaccinated age groups. We conclude that there is a causal relationship between measles viruses and the development of otosclerosis.