Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

Solució mental i solució motriu en la iniciació als esports col·lectius en l'Educació Primària

The adjustment of the teaching learning contents in Physical Education, requires of a rigorous analysis that permits to adjust them to the maximum with the educational needs of the student body. It has been approached an investigation study in the one which have intervened pupils, boys and girls, of two different populations, Girona and Madrid in order to prove and analyse the motor and mental components of the student body in the real situation of the game. The hypothesis that we have treated are:if it exists differences between the boys and girls of the educational levels studied in the motor and mental solution in the sports initiation, additionally, the differences that they can exist between the courses and what distance is verified between the study ages to approach a physical activity that implies an initial step to the hour of teaching the collective sports in the classes of Physical education. They have been employed three measure instruments: the first permits to analyse the mental solution without need of practice employing situation photographs of the real game with those which the pupils must choose to who to happen; the second is a pass test that permits to prove the technical dominance to use in a collective sport and the third is a real game situation that permits to put in manifesto the relationship between the mental behaviour and the motor of the pupil. This real game situation is ‘the game of ten pass’ (Blázquez,1986; Torres,1993). The results demonstrate that it do not exist differences between the two sexes in the study ages. In the case of the technical execution level, there is a considerable increase with the age and it is slightly greater in the kids that in the girls. In the case of the real game, we find ourselves with a great variability in the results and we cannot conclude that there are relative differences to the sex in none of the three courses. Respect at participation level during the game is confirmed that the pupils that more participate are not the pupils than more balls lose, what permits to guarantee the idea of the fact that it is convenient to use the real game practice as direct learning element. Finally, there is no a high correlation between the execution level measured in the test of technical execution and the decision execution during the game

Perspectives for Forensic Intelligence in anti-doping: thinking outside the box

Today's approach to anti-doping is mostly centered on the judicial process, despite pursuing a further goal in the detection, reduction, solving and/or prevention of doping. Similarly to decision-making in the area of law enforcement feeding on Forensic Intelligence, anti-doping might significantly benefit from a more extensive gathering of knowledge. Forensic Intelligence might bring a broader logical dimension to the interpretation of data on doping activities for a more future-oriented and comprehensive approach instead of the traditional case-based and reactive process. Information coming from a variety of sources related to doping, whether directly or potentially, would feed an organized memory to provide real time intelligence on the size, seriousness and evolution of the phenomenon. Due to the complexity of doping, integrating analytical chemical results and longitudinal monitoring of biomarkers with physiological, epidemiological, sociological or circumstantial information might provide a logical framework enabling fit for purpose decision-making. Therefore, Anti-Doping Intelligence might prove efficient at providing a more proactive response to any potential or emerging doping phenomenon or to address existing problems with innovative actions or/and policies. This approach might prove useful to detect, neutralize, disrupt and/or prevent organized doping or the trafficking of doping agents, as well as helping to refine the targeting of athletes or teams. In addition, such an intelligence-led methodology would serve to address doping offenses in the absence of adverse analytical chemical evidence.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades &-1 to &9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition.The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø &8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar).To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend.Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

High mobility group box 1 protein (HMGB-1): a pathogenic role in preeclampsia?

We evaluated whether preeclampsia is associated with elevated circulating levels of High mobility group box 1 protein (HMGB-1), a nuclear protein with proinflammatory effects when released extracellularly. We enrolled 48 women, 32 in third trimester pregnancy (16 with, 16 without preeclampsia), and 16 healthy non pregnant. In the peripheral blood of pregnant women, HMGB-1 concentration was assessed serially, before and after delivery. With or without preeclampsia, third trimester pregnancy was associated with elevated levels of HMGB-1. This elevation is exaggerated in preeclampsia. The source of HMGB-1 observed in these conditions is likely to involve tissues other than the placenta itself.