Discrepancies between office and ambulatory blood pressure: clinical implications.

BACKGROUND: Recent trials have documented no benefit from small reductions in blood pressure measured in the clinical office. However, ambulatory blood pressure is a better predictor of cardiovascular events than office-based blood pressure. We assessed control of ambulatory blood pressure in treated hypertensive patients at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: We selected 4729 patients from the Spanish Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Registry. Patients were aged >/=55 years and presented with at least one of the following co-morbidities: coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes with end-organ damage. An average of 2 measures of blood pressure in the office was used for analyses. Also, 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure was recorded at 20-minute intervals with a SpaceLabs 90207 device. RESULTS: Patients had a mean age of 69.6 (+/-8.2) years, and 60.8% of them were male. Average time from the diagnosis of hypertension to recruitment into the Registry was 10.9 (+/-8.4) years. Mean blood pressure in the office was 152.3/82.3 mm Hg, and mean 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure was 133.3/72.4 mm Hg. About 60% of patients with an office-pressure of 130-139/85-89 mm Hg, 42.4% with office-pressure of 140-159/90-99 mm Hg, and 23.3% with office-pressure > or =160/100 mm Hg were actually normotensive, according to 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure criteria (<130/80 mm Hg). CONCLUSION: We suggest that the lack of benefit of antihypertensive therapy in some trials may partly be due to some patients having normal pressure at trial baseline. Ambulatory monitoring of blood pressure may allow for a better assessment of trial eligibility.

ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

A Genetic Validation Study Reveals a Role of Vitamin D Metabolism in the Response to Interferon-Alfa-Based Therapy of Chronic Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: To perform a comprehensive study on the relationship between vitamin D metabolism and the response to interferon-α-based therapy of chronic hepatitis C. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Associations between a functionally relevant polymorphism in the gene encoding the vitamin D 1α-hydroxylase (CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012) and the response to treatment with pegylated interferon-α (PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin were determined in 701 patients with chronic hepatitis C. In addition, associations between serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D(3) (25[OH]D(3)) and treatment outcome were analysed. CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 was found to be an independent predictor of sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with poor-response IL28B genotypes (15% difference in SVR for rs10877012 genotype AA vs. CC, p = 0.02, OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.061-2.188), but not in patients with favourable IL28B genotype. Patients with chronic hepatitis C showed a high prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (25[OH]D(3)<20 ng/mL) during all seasons, but 25(OH)D(3) serum levels were not associated with treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study suggests a role of bioactive vitamin D (1,25[OH](2)D(3), calcitriol) in the response to treatment of chronic hepatitis C. However, serum concentration of the calcitriol precursor 25(OH)D(3) is not a suitable predictor of treatment outcome.

IL28B expression depends on a novel TT/-G polymorphism which improves HCV clearance prediction.

Approximately 3% of the world population is chronically infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), with potential development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Despite the availability of new antiviral agents, treatment remains suboptimal. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified rs12979860, a polymorphism nearby IL28B, as an important predictor of HCV clearance. We report the identification of a novel TT/-G polymorphism in the CpG region upstream of IL28B, which is a better predictor of HCV clearance than rs12979860. By using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from individuals carrying different allelic combinations of the TT/-G and rs12979860 polymorphisms, we show that induction of IL28B and IFN-γ-inducible protein 10 (IP-10) mRNA relies on TT/-G, but not rs12979860, making TT/-G the only functional variant identified so far. This novel step in understanding the genetic regulation of IL28B may have important implications for clinical practice, as the use of TT/G genotyping instead of rs12979860 would improve patient management.

Relatedness influences signal reliability in evolving robots.

Communication is an indispensable component of animal societies, yet many open questions remain regarding the factors affecting the evolution and reliability of signalling systems. A potentially important factor is the level of genetic relatedness between signallers and receivers. To quantitatively explore the role of relatedness in the evolution of reliable signals, we conducted artificial evolution over 500 generations in a system of foraging robots that can emit and perceive light signals. By devising a quantitative measure of signal reliability, and comparing independently evolving populations differing in within-group relatedness, we show a strong positive correlation between relatedness and reliability. Unrelated robots produced unreliable signals, whereas highly related robots produced signals that reliably indicated the location of the food source and thereby increased performance. Comparisons across populations also revealed that the frequency for signal production-which is often used as a proxy of signal reliability in empirical studies on animal communication-is a poor predictor of signal reliability and, accordingly, is not consistently correlated with group performance. This has important implications for our understanding of signal evolution and the empirical tools that are used to investigate communication.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Oxygen uptake kinetics and middle distance swimming performance.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether V˙O(2) kinetics and specifically, the time constant of transitions from rest to heavy (τ(p)H) and severe (τ(p)S) exercise intensities, are related to middle distance swimming performance. DESIGN: Fourteen highly trained male swimmers (mean ± SD: 20.5 ± 3.0 yr; 75.4 ± 12.4 kg; 1.80 ± 0.07 m) performed an discontinuous incremental test, as well as square wave transitions for heavy and severe swimming intensities, to determine V˙O(2) kinetics parameters using two exponential functions. METHODS: All the tests involved front-crawl swimming with breath-by-breath analysis using the Aquatrainer swimming snorkel. Endurance performance was recorded as the time taken to complete a 400 m freestyle swim within an official competition (T400), one month from the date of the other tests. RESULTS: T400 (Mean ± SD) (251.4 ± 12.4 s) was significantly correlated with τ(p)H (15.8 ± 4.8s; r=0.62; p=0.02) and τ(p)S (15.8 ± 4.7s; r=0.61; p=0.02). The best single predictor of 400 m freestyle time, out of the variables that were assessed, was the velocity at V˙O(2max)vV˙O(2max), which accounted for 80% of the variation in performance between swimmers. However, τ(p)H and V˙O(2max) were also found to influence the prediction of T400 when they were included in a regression model that involved respiratory parameters only. CONCLUSIONS: Faster kinetics during the primary phase of the V˙O(2) response is associated with better performance during middle-distance swimming. However, vV˙O(2max) appears to be a better predictor of T400.

The value of serum procalcitonin level for differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of postoperative orthopaedic infections is important in order to rapidly initiate adequate antimicrobial therapy. There are currently no reliable diagnostic markers to differentiate infectious from noninfectious causes of postoperative fever. We investigated the value of the serum procalcitonin level in febrile patients after orthopaedic surgery. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 103 consecutive patients with new onset of fever within ten days after orthopaedic surgery. Fever episodes were classified by two independent investigators who were blinded to procalcitonin results as infectious or noninfectious origin. White blood-cell count, C-reactive protein level, and procalcitonin level were assessed on days 0, 1, and 3 of the postoperative fever. RESULTS: Infection was diagnosed in forty-five (44%) of 103 patients and involved the respiratory tract (eighteen patients), urinary tract (eighteen), joints (four), surgical site (two), bloodstream (two), and soft tissues (one). Unlike C-reactive protein levels and white blood-cell counts, procalcitonin values were significantly higher in patients with infection compared with patients without infection on the day of fever onset (p = 0.04), day 1 (p = 0.07), and day 3 (p = 0.003). Receiver-operating characteristics demonstrated that procalcitonin had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with a value of 0.62, 0.62, and 0.71 on days 0, 1, and 3, respectively. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, procalcitonin was a significant predictor for postoperative infection on days 0, 1, and 3 of fever with an odds ratio of 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 4.4), 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.2), and 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 9.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum procalcitonin is a helpful diagnostic marker supporting clinical and microbiological findings for more reliable differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large-scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (similar to 9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (similar to 20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo-climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.

Rehabilitation outcomes for orthopaedic trauma individuals as measured by the INTERMED.

PURPOSE: Bio-psychosocial characteristics of patients after orthopaedic traumas may be a strong predictor of poor outcome. The objective of this prospective study was to assess whether the INTERMED, a measure of bio-psychosocial complexity, identifies complex inpatients during rehabilitation including vocational aspects with a poor outcome 1 year after discharge. METHOD: At entry, the INTERMED scores of 118 inpatients were used to assign patients to the high or low complexity group. A questionnaire evaluated 1 year after discharge whether patients: (1) returned to work, (2) still have therapies, (3) take psychoactive drugs, (4) take medication against pain and (5) were satisfied with vocational therapy. Univariate logistic regressions identified which variables predict INTERMED case complexity during hospitalisation as well as predictors (i.e. INTERMED case complexity, French as preferred language, duration of the disability, accident at work, work qualification, severity of the injury, psychiatric co-morbidities, pain) of the five measured outcomes 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: During hospitalisation, the high complexity group was associated with a high prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidities, a higher level of pain and a weaker perception of treatment effects. One year after discharge, the INTERMED was the sole variable to predict all outcomes. CONCLUSION: The INTERMED identifies complex patients during vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma and is a good predictor of poor outcome 1 year after discharge.

Urinary incontinence in the prediction of falls in hospitalized elderly

Objective Analyzing the effect of urinary incontinence as a predictor of the incidence of falls among hospitalized elderly. Method Concurrent cohort study where 221 elderly inpatients were followed from the date of admission until discharge, death or fall. The Kaplan-Meier methods, the incidence density and the Cox regression model were used for the survival analysis and the assessment of the association between the exposure variable and the other variables. Results Urinary incontinence was a strong predictor of falls in the surveyed elderly, and was associated with shorter time until the occurrence of event. Urinary incontinence, concomitant with gait and balance dysfunction and use of antipsychotics was associated with falls. Conclusion Measures to prevent the risk of falls specific to hospitalized elderly patients who have urinary incontinence are necessary.



Myocardial flow reserve by Rb-82 cardiac PET improves the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography

Aim: We asked whether myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by Rb-82 cardiac PET improve the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Material and Methods: We enrolled 26 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who performed dynamic Rb-82 PET/CT and (ICA) within 60 days; 4 patients who underwent revascularization or had any cardiovascular events between PET and ICA were excluded. Myocardial blood flow at rest (rMBF), at stress with adenosine (sMBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR=sMBF/rMBF) were estimated using the 1-compartment Lortie model (FlowQuant) for each coronary arteries territories. Stenosis severity was assessed using computer-based automated edge detection (QCA). MFR was divided in 3 groups: G1:MFR<1.5, G2:1.5≤MFR<2 and G3:2≤MFR. Stenosis severity was graded as non-significant (<50% or FFR ≥0.8), intermediate (50%≤stenosis<70%) and severe (≥70%). Correlation between MFR and percentage of stenosis were assessed using a non-parametric Spearman test. Results: In G1 (44 vessels), 17 vessels (39%) had a severe stenosis, 11 (25%) an intermediate one, and 16 (36%) no significant stenosis. In G2 (13 vessels), 2 (15%) vessels presented a severe stenosis, 7 (54%) an intermediate one, and 4 (31%) no significant stenosis. In G3 (9 vessels), 0 vessel presented a severe stenosis, 1 (11%) an intermediate one, and 8 (89%) no significant stenosis. Of note, among 11 patients with 3-vessel low MFR<1.5 (G1), 9/11 (82%) had at least one severe stenosis and 2/11 (18%) had at least one intermediate stenosis. There was a significant inverse correlation between stenosis severity and MFR among all 66 territories analyzed (rho= -0.38, p=0.002). Conclusion: Patients with MFR>2 could avoid ICA. Low MFR (G1, G2) on a vessel-based analysis seems to be a poor predictor of severe stenosis severity. Patients with 3-vessel low MFR would benefit from ICA as they are likely to present a significant stenosis in at least one vessel.

How Much Chemotherapy Are Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Receiving at the End of Life?

Background: Advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (APC) is a chemoresistant cancer with poor prognosis. We evaluated the use of chemotherapy in the last months of life.Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients with APC treated from 1993 to 2010 at the Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland. Clinical and laboratory parameters starting from 28 days prior to the last administration of chemotherapy were recorded, including ECOG performance status, presence of ascites, haemoglobin (Hb), white blood cell (WBC) count, platelets, total bilirubin, albumin, LDH, C-reactive protein (C-rp) and Ca 19.9.Results: The characteristics of the 231 patients were: males/females 53%/47%; metastatic/locally advanced disease 80%/20%; median age 66 years (range 32−85). Median overall survival calculated from diagnosis was 6.1 months (95% CI: 5.1−7.2); death was due to disease progression in all cases. At last chemotherapy administration, ECOG performance status was 0−1 in 38% and 2−3 in 62%. Fifty-nine percent of pts received first-line chemotherapy only (gemcitabine in 70%; gemcitabine-based doublets or 5FU in 30%), whilst 32%, 8% and 1% had second- (5FU 37%; oxaliplatinbased doublets 57%; phase I trial 6%), third- and fourth-line therapy (single agent or phase I trial), respectively. The interval between last chemotherapy administration and death was <4 weeks in 24%, _4−12 weeks in 47% and >12 weeks in 29%. Table 1 summarizes the proportion of patients treated according to the interval between last chemotherapy and death refered to chemotherapy line. Median survival from last chemotherapy delivery to death was 7.5 weeks (95% CI 6.7−8.4). In univariate analysis, presence of ascites, elevated WBC, total bilirubin, LDH, C-rp and Ca 19.9, and reduced albumin were found to predict shorter survival (p < 0.05 for each). However, none of them was an independent predictor in the multivariate analysis.Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients with APC received chemotherapy in the last months of life. In our study, none of the clinical and laboratory parameters recorded 28 days priorto the last chemotherapy delivery were found to predict survival.

Scientific Literature on the Reliability and Validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) Protocol: A Integrative Literature Review

OBJECTIVE To analyze the scientific production about the validity and reliability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) protocol. METHOD A descriptive study of an integrative literature review. Articles on the validity and reliability of the MTS developed with children and adults published between 1999 and 2013 were included. RESULTS 14 articles were selected from a total of 8438, nine of validity and five of reliability. The reliability of the MTS ranged from moderate to almost perfect, with higher intra-evaluation. Regarding validity, the results seem to point to equivalent and satisfactory sensibility and specificity levels of the MTS. The instrument proved to be a good predictor of the need for hospitalization and of hospital mortality. CONCLUSION The reliability and validity of the MTS obtained in the studies is varied. It is recommended that new studies indicate necessary modifications to the MTS so that it is more safely used by nurses.

Clinical treatment adherence of health care workers and students exposed to potentially infectious biological material

OBJECTIVE To assess adherence to clinical appointments by health care workers (HCW) and students who suffered accidents with potentially infectious biological material. METHOD A retrospective cross-sectional study that assessed clinical records of accidents involving biological material between 2005 and 2010 in a specialized unit. RESULTS A total of 461 individuals exposed to biological material were treated, of which 389 (84.4%) were HCWs and 72 (15.6%) students. Of the 461 exposed individuals, 307 (66.6%) attended a follow-up appointment. Individuals who had suffered an accident with a known source patient were 29 times more likely to show up to their scheduled follow-up appointments (OR: 29.98; CI95%: 16.09-55.83). CONCLUSION The predictor in both univariate and multivariate analyses for adherence to clinical follow-up appointment was having a known source patient with nonreactive serology for the human immunodeficiency virus and/or hepatitis B and C.