La paletina: un pinzell pla i prim

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’origen de l’autora és la Sénia, un poble d'uns 6000 habitants de la província de Tarragona, on, tot i el predomini actual de la fabricació de mobles, les primeres mostres d'industrialització foren el paper i els pinzells. L’arrelament de la indústria pinzellera de la seva família, ha estat el motiu que l’ha portat a desenvolupar aquest treball sobre la paletina, un tipus de pinzell. L'objectiu del treball ha estat dissenyar un model de paletina, a partir de proves pràctiques i d'estudis estadístics sobre quins són els components més adients. En primer lloc, es fa una descripció detallada dels components de la paletina. A continuació, s’estudia el seu procés de fabricació, primer des del punt de vista manual i després d'acord amb els procediments moderns. Finalment, a partir d'un experiment i amb el corresponent estudi estadístic, s’arriba a una nova proposta de paletina amb unes condicions òptimes de qualitat i rendiment. A més també es descriu el procés de fabricació de la paletina que es duia a terme uns cinquanta anys enrere i es pot valorar, així, tant el mèrit del procés en aquella època com també l'evolució tecnològica que s'ha dut a terme fins al moment.

Una casa, una història: patrimoni arquitectònic i humà d'una casa de la Selva del Camp

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. El treball té com a objecte de recerca un habitatge del municipi de la Selva del Camp. Aquest, es centra tant en els aspectes artístics i decoratius, com en l’anàlisi de l’evolució patrimonial i l’ús social de l’edifici entre els segles XVIII-XX. En la recerca s’ha analitzat, per una banda, el procés de transformació de l’edifici des de l’any 1749 i els elements artístics que encara s’hi conserven com pintures neoclàssiques, treballs de ferro forjat, etc., els quals fan que sigui una de les cases més emblemàtiques del Carrer Major de la Selva. D’altra banda, s’ha indagat en les diferents generacions que, des de mitjan segle XVIII, n’han tingut la propietat i el paper que aquestes famílies han jugat dins la societat selvatana. La casa, en aquests anys, ha pertanyut a dues famílies i al Sindicat Agrícola. La primera, els Fortuny, terratinents i amb càrrecs al govern municipal; l'altra, els Carnicer, comerciants d'avellanes dels quals jo en sóc descendent. De 1910 a 1920 la casa fou al seu del Sindicat Agrícola i a partir de textos de Puig i Ferreter s’ha pogut descriure l’ambient que s'hi vivia i les activitats que s’hi duien a terme. Alhora, el fet d’analitzar les diferents funcions que l’edifici ha tingut al llarg d’aquests anys (residència familiar, corredoria de comerç, premsa d’oli, seu del Centre Republicà o del Sindicat Agrícola) ha permès explicar la història de la vila de la Selva a partir de la d’aquest edifici.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Harmonization of research and control in schistosomiasis

I have been employed by several different organizations during over 30 years working on schistosomiasis, the majority spent in endemic areas of Caribean, South America, Africa and the Western Pacific. Much of the work is best classified as applied research but sometimes it strayed to the extremes of either public health control programmes or pure research. Over this period, there have been several significant research developments that have altered our whole approach to control. Ideally, research and control should complement each other but, in reality, they sometimes have conflicting objectives. Public health workers understandably wish to provide immediate, shot-term protection to the communities in their care, but research workers may, within ethical limits, reasonably want to observe untreated communities for extended periods in order to understand the underluing process of transmission, disease pathogenesis and immunity to help develop more effective control measures. An example of this situation has occured recently in Senegal where water development projects seem to have favoured the introduction and spreed of Schistosoma mansoni in the Senegal River Basin. I have been asked to be the scientific consultant to the newly formed ESPOIR programme, linking European research organizations and the Senegal Ministry of Health, to reconcile the conflictiong aims of public health workers, wishing to use whatever funds can be obtained for an immediate chemotherapy to try to eliminate the focus, at present confined to the vicinity of a relatively small, commercially run sugar irrigation scheme; and research workers who see a rare chance to study the development of immune mechanisms in a adults in a community not previously exposed to the infection. This information could prove invaluable in understanding the development of immunity and the pathogenesis of disease, leading eventually to the development of vaccines to revolutionise the future approach to schistosomiasis...

Frequency of platelet type versus type 2B von Willebrand disease. An international registry-based study.

Less than 50 patients are reported with platelet type von Willebrand disease (PT-VWD) worldwide. Several reports have discussed the diagnostic challenge of this disease versus the closely similar disorder type 2B VWD. However, no systematic study has evaluated this dilemma globally. Over three years, a total of 110 samples/data from eight countries were analysed. A molecular approach was utilised, analysing exon 28 of the von Willebrand factor (VWF) gene, and in mutation negative cases the platelet GP1BA gene. Our results show that 48 cases initially diagnosed as putative type 2B/PT-VWD carried exon 28 mutations consistent with type 2B VWD, 17 carried GP1BA mutations consistent with a PT-VWD diagnosis, three had other VWD types (2A and 2M) and five expressed three non-previously published exon 28 mutations. Excluding 10 unaffected family members and one acquired VWD, 26 cases did not have mutations in either genes. Based on our study, the percentage of type 2B VWD diagnosis is 44% while the percentage of misdiagnosis of PT-VWD is 15%. This is the first large international study to investigate the occurrence of PT-VWD and type 2B VWD worldwide and to evaluate DNA analysis as a diagnostic tool for a large cohort of patients. The study highlights the diagnostic limitations due to unavailability/poor application of RIPA and related tests in some centres and proposes genetic analysis as a suitable tool for the discrimination of the two disorders worldwide. Cases that are negative for both VWF and GP1BA gene mutations require further evaluation for alternative diagnoses.

Les symbioses agro-industrielles en Afrique de l'Ouest : évaluation du potentiel d'une nouvelle stratégie pour un développement durable

RésuméCette thèse traite de l'utilisation des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement et étudie le potentiel de cette stratégie pour stimuler un développement régional durable dans les zones rurales d'Afrique de l'Ouest. En particulier, lorsqu'une Symbiose Industrielle est instaurée entre une usine et sa population alentour, des outils d'évaluation sont nécessaires pour garantir que le projet permette d'atteindre un réel développement durable. Les outils existants, développés dans les pays industrialisés, ne sont cependant pas complètement adaptés pour l'évaluation de projets dans les pays en développement. En effet, les outils sont porteurs d'hypothèses implicites propres au contexte socio-économique dans lequel ils ont été conçus.L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour l'évaluation de la durabilité de projets de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement.Pour ce faire, je m'appuie sur une étude de cas de la mise en place d'une Symbiose Industrielle au nord du Nigéria, à laquelle j'ai participé en tant qu'observatrice dès 2007. AshakaCem, une usine productrice de ciment du groupe Lafarge, doit faire face à de nombreuses tensions avec la population rurale alentour. L'entreprise a donc décidé d'adopter une nouvelle méthode inspirée des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle. Le projet consiste à remplacer jusqu'à 10% du carburant fossile utilisé pour la cuisson de la matière crue (calcaire et additifs) par de la biomasse produite par les paysans locaux. Pour ne pas compromettre la fragile sécurité alimentaire régionale, des techniques de lutte contre l'érosion et de fertilisation naturelle des sols sont enseignées aux paysans, qui peuvent ainsi utiliser la culture de biomasse pour améliorer leurs cultures vivrières. A travers cette Symbiose Industrielle, l'entreprise poursuit des objectifs sociaux (poser les bases nécessaires à un développement régional), mais également environnementaux (réduire ses émissions de CO2 globales) et économiques (réduire ses coûts énergétiques). Elle s'ancre ainsi dans une perspective de développement durable qui est conditionnelle à la réalisation du projet.A travers l'observation de cette Symbiose et par la connaissance des outils existants je constate qu'une évaluation de la durabilité de projets dans les pays en développement nécessite l'utilisation de critères d'évaluation propres à chaque projet. En effet, dans ce contexte, l'emploi de critères génériques apporte une évaluation trop éloignée des besoins et de la réalité locale. C'est pourquoi, en m'inspirant des outils internationalement reconnus comme l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie ou la Global Reporting Initiative, je définis dans cette thèse un cadre méthodologique qui peut, lui, être identique pour tous les projets. Cette stratégie suit six étapes, qui se réalisent de manière itérative pour permettre une auto¬amélioration de la méthodologie d'évaluation et du projet lui-même. Au cours de ces étapes, les besoins et objectifs en termes sociaux, économiques et environnementaux des différents acteurs sont déterminés, puis regroupés, hiérarchisés et formulés sous forme de critères à évaluer. Des indicateurs quantitatifs ou qualitatifs sont ensuite définis pour chacun de ces critères. Une des spécificités de cette stratégie est de définir une échelle d'évaluation en cinq graduations, identique pour chaque indicateur, témoignant d'un objectif totalement atteint (++) ou pas du tout atteint (--).L'application de ce cadre méthodologique à la Symbiose nigériane a permis de déterminer quatre critères économiques, quatre critères socio-économiques et six critères environnementaux à évaluer. Pour les caractériser, 22 indicateurs ont été définis. L'évaluation de ces indicateurs a permis de montrer que le projet élaboré atteint les objectifs de durabilité fixés pour la majorité des critères. Quatre indicateurs ont un résultat neutre (0), et un cinquième montre qu'un critère n'est pas atteint (--). Ces résultats s'expliquent par le fait que le projet n'en est encore qu'à sa phase pilote et n'a donc pas encore atteint la taille et la diffusion optimales. Un suivi sur plusieurs années permettra de garantir que ces manques seront comblés.Le cadre méthodologique que j'ai développé dans cette thèse est un outil d'évaluation participatif qui pourra être utilisé dans un contexte plus large que celui des pays en développement. Son caractère générique en fait un très bon outil pour la définition de critères et indicateurs de suivi de projet en terme de développement durable.SummaryThis thesis examines the use of industrial symbiosis in developing countries and studies its potential to stimulate sustainable regional development in rural areas across Western Africa. In particular, when industrial symbiosis is instituted between a factory and the surrounding population, evaluation tools are required to ensure the project achieves truly sustainable development. Existing tools developed in industrialized countries are not entirely suited to assessing projects in developing countries. Indeed, the implicit hypotheses behind such tools reflect the socioeconomic context in which they were designed. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for evaluating the sustainability of industrial symbiosis projects in developing countries.To accomplish this, I followed a case study about the implementation of industrial symbiosis in northern Nigeria by participating as an observer since 2007. AshakaCem, a cement works of Lafarge group, must confront many issues associated with violence committed by the local rural population. Thus, the company decided to adopt a new approach inspired by the concepts of industrial symbiosis.The project involves replacing up to 10% of the fossil fuel used to heat limestone with biomass produced by local farmers. To avoid jeopardizing the fragile security of regional food supplies, farmers are taught ways to combat erosion and naturally fertilize the soil. They can then use biomass cultivation to improve their subsistence crops. Through this industrial symbiosis, AshakaCem follows social objectives (to lay the necessary foundations for regional development), but also environmental ones (to reduce its overall CO2 emissions) and economical ones (to reduce its energy costs). The company is firmly rooted in a view of sustainable development that is conditional upon the project's execution.By observing this symbiosis and by being familiar with existing tools, I note that assessing the sustainability of projects in developing countries requires using evaluation criteria that are specific to each project. Indeed, using generic criteria results in an assessment that is too far removed from what is needed and from the local reality. Thus, by drawing inspiration from such internationally known tools as Life Cycle Analysis and the Global Reporting Initiative, I define a generic methodological framework for the participative establishment of an evaluation methodology specific to each project.The strategy follows six phases that are fulfilled iteratively so as to improve the evaluation methodology and the project itself as it moves forward. During these phases, the social, economic, and environmental needs and objectives of the stakeholders are identified, grouped, ranked, and expressed as criteria for evaluation. Quantitative or qualitative indicators are then defined for each of these criteria. One of the characteristics of this strategy is to define a five-point evaluation scale, the same for each indicator, to reflect a goal that was completely reached (++) or not reached at all (--).Applying the methodological framework to the Nigerian symbiosis yielded four economic criteria, four socioeconomic criteria, and six environmental criteria to assess. A total of 22 indicators were defined to characterize the criteria. Evaluating these indicators made it possible to show that the project meets the sustainability goals set for the majority of criteria. Four indicators had a neutral result (0); a fifth showed that one criterion had not been met (--). These results can be explained by the fact that the project is still only in its pilot phase and, therefore, still has not reached its optimum size and scope. Following up over several years will make it possible to ensure these gaps will be filled.The methodological framework presented in this thesis is a highly effective tool that can be used in a broader context than developing countries. Its generic nature makes it a very good tool for defining criteria and follow-up indicators for sustainable development.

Gambling among youths in Switzerland and its association with other addictive behaviours: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of problem gambling in a population of youths in Switzerland and to determine its association with other potentially addictive behaviours. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey including 1,102 participants in the first and second year of post-compulsory education, reporting gambling, socio-demographics, internet use and substance use. For three categories of gambling (nongambler; nonproblem gambler and at-risk/problem gambler). socio-demographic and addiction data were compared using a bivariate analysis. All significant variables were included in a multinominal logistic regression using nongamblers as the reference category. RESULTS: The prevalence of gamblers was 37.48% (n = 413), with nonproblem gamblers being 31.94% (n = 352) and at-risk/problem gamblers 5.54% (n = 61). At the bivariate level, severity of gambling increased among adults (over 18 years) and among males, vocational students, participants not living with both parents and youths having a low socio-economic status. Gambling was also associated to the four addictive behaviours studied. At the multivariate level, risk of nonproblem gambling was increased in males, older youths, vocational students, participants of Swiss origin and alcohol misusers. Risk of at-risk/problem gambling was higher for males, older youths, alcohol misusers, participants not living with both parents and problem internet users. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of youths in our sample had gambled in the previous year and gambling is associated with other addictive behaviours. Clinicians should screen their adolescent patients for gambling habits, especially if other addictive behaviours are present. Additionally, gambling should be included in prevention campaigns together with other addictive behaviours.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Nouveautés en médecine ambutatoire: dépistage, traitement et iatrogénicité [Innovations in ambulatory care: screening, treatment and iatrogenicity]

Cette année, six études utiles pour la pratique ont été retenues. L'indication à la mammographie entre 40 et 49 ans devrait être évaluée individuellement et en tenant compte des risques/bénéfices de cet examen. Au-delà de 65 ans, un dépistage systématique de la fibrillation auriculaire avec prise de pouls puis ECG (si pouls irrégulier) pourrait être réalisé de manière systématique. Les risques de complications postcolonoscopie existent, particulièrement suite à des biopsies/polypectomies, et ce risque devrait être discuté. Les inhibiteurs de la pompe à protons au long court sont un facteur de risque de fracture de hanche. S'il est important de prendre en charge des pressions artérielles élevées au-delà de 80 ans, il faut être prudent (orthostatisme). Une corticothérapie précoce suite à une paralysie faciale périphérique est efficace. This year we have selected six studies useful for the day to day practice. A mammography in women 40 to 49 years of age should be evaluated taking into account the patient's profile and the possible risks and benefits of this exam. In patients over 65 years of age, a systematic atrial fibrillation screening, with pulse rate measuring then ECG (if irregular beat) should be realised on a regular basis. The risks for complications following colonoscopies do exist, especially after biopsies/polypectomies and this risk should be discussed. Long term proton pump inhibitor treatment is a risk factor for hip fracture. It is important to treat high blood pressure problems in the elderly, but the orthostatic risks should be adressed. A corticoid treatment started quickly for Bell's palsy is efficient

FOXC2 controls formation and maturation of lymphatic collecting vessels through cooperation with NFATc1.

The mechanisms of blood vessel maturation into distinct parts of the blood vasculature such as arteries, veins, and capillaries have been the subject of intense investigation over recent years. In contrast, our knowledge of lymphatic vessel maturation is still fragmentary. In this study, we provide a molecular and morphological characterization of the major steps in the maturation of the primary lymphatic capillary plexus into collecting lymphatic vessels during development and show that forkhead transcription factor Foxc2 controls this process. We further identify transcription factor NFATc1 as a novel regulator of lymphatic development and describe a previously unsuspected link between NFATc1 and Foxc2 in the regulation of lymphatic maturation. We also provide a genome-wide map of FOXC2-binding sites in lymphatic endothelial cells, identify a novel consensus FOXC2 sequence, and show that NFATc1 physically interacts with FOXC2-binding enhancers. As damage to collecting vessels is a major cause of lymphatic dysfunction in humans, our results suggest that FOXC2 and NFATc1 are potential targets for therapeutic intervention.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

The Maggia cross-fold: An enigmatic structure of the lower Penninic nappes of the Lepontine Alps

The geometry and kinematics of the map scale Maggia cross-fold structure has been studied by several generations of geologists over seventy years and different models have been proposed for its formation. New observations indicate that the Maggia structure is a SW-verging cross-fold created after earlier NW-directed overthrusting of the Maggia nappe onto the deeper Simano and Antigorio recumbent fold nappes. The nappe emplacement and later cross-folding occurred under amphibolite facies conditions by detachment of the upper European crust during its SE-directed underthrusting below the Adriatic plate.

Eligibility for statin therapy in primary prevention: discrepancies using different guidelines in a population-based study in Switzerland

Introduction: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Switzerland. Methods: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10-year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD >20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD >= 5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. Results: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC (Figure). Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24'310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). Conclusion: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Switzerland.

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Rural and Urban Endemic Areas of Minas Gerais, Brazil

To compare the epidemiological profile and socioeconomic factors associated to the infection by Schistosoma mansoni in a rural and an urban endemic area a cross-sectional study was performed in Água Branca de Minas (rural area) and Bela Fama (urban area), both situated in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two hundred and eighty eight individuals were surveyed in the rural area and 787 in the urban area. Water contact and socioeconomic questionnaires were used to identify risk factors for the infection. The prevalences of 38.8% and 9.7% and the geometric mean of eggs per gram of faeces of 117.8 and 62.3 were found in the rural and urban areas, respectively. By multivariate statistical analysis age groups over nine years old and previous specific treatment were associated with the infection in rural area. In urban area age over nine years old, low quality housing, weekly fishing and swimming were associated after adjustment by logistic regression