Biochemical parameters response to weight loss in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.

Background: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic liver disease that is capable of progressing to end-stage liver disease, but generally has a benign course. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a growing public health problem with no approved therapy. NASH projected to be the leading cause of liver transplantation in the United States by 2020. Obesity, non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidaemia are the most common associations of the disease. Global prevalence of NASH is 10-24% amongst general population but increases to 25-75% in obese diabetic individuals. Objective: There is an urgent need for efficient therapeutic options as there is still no approved medication. The aim of this study was to detect changes in biochemical parameters including insulin resistance, cytokines, blood lipid profile and liver enzymes following weight loss in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Materials and methods: One hundred obese patients with NASH, their age between 35-50 years, body mass index (BMI) from 30 to 35 Kg/m2 were included in the study in two subgroups; the first group (A) received moderate aerobic exercise training in addition to diet regimen , where the second group (B) received no treatment intervention. Results: The mean values of leptin, TNF-α, IL6, IL8, Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT), Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance- index (HOMA-IR), Total Cholesterol (TC), Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-c) , Triglycerides (TG) and BMI were significantly decreased in group (A), where the mean value of Adiponectin and High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-c) were significantly increased, while there were no significant changes in group (B). Also, there was a significant difference between both groups at the end of the study. Conclusion: Weight loss modulates insulin resistance, adiponectin, leptin, inflammatory cytokine levels and markers of hepatic function in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Estudos recentes na baía de Santos (sudeste do Brasil), localizada em um sistema estuarino altamente urbanizado, mostraram o aumento de espécies fitoplanctônicas potencialmente nocivas. Apesar da importância da previsão das florações algais nocivas, é difícil determinar a estrutura da comunidade fitoplanctônica em ambientes extremamente dinâmicos. O presente estudo analisa florações dominadas pelo microfitoplâncton e sua relação com variáveis físicas e meteorológicas, a fim de determinar padrões associados às marés e às estações do ano. Foram comparadas oito situações e obtidos cinco cenários de dominância relacionados aos ventos, marés e pluviosidade: i) Surfers, diatomáceas associadas à zona de surfe, de alta energia; ii) Sinkers, diatomáceas de tamanho grande que ocorrem nas marés de sizígia, depois de períodos de alta pluviosidade; iii) Opportunistic mixers, diatomáceas pequenas ou alongadas, formadoras de cadeia, que ocorrem durante períodos de quadratura; iv) Local mixers, diatomáceas e dinoflagelados microplanctônicos que foram abundantes em todas as 298 estações amostradas, e v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, que ocorrem após intensas descargas estuarinas. Os resultados sugerem uma alteração no padrão temporal de algumas espécies formadoras de florações, enquanto outras apresentaram abundâncias superiores aos valores seguros para a saúde publica. Esta abordagem ilustra também os possíveis impactos de variações na descarga de água doce em estuários altamente eutrofizados.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector and sea surface salinity for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the potential downstream influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts through the oceanic pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), atmospheric teleconnections between the IO and Pacific, and assimilation of IO observations. Also the impact of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indo-Pacific region is assessed to try to address known problems with operational coupled model precipitation forecasts. The ITF normally drains warm fresh water from the Pacific reducing the mixed layer depths (MLD). A shallower MLD amplifies large-scale oceanic Kelvin/Rossby waves thus giving ~10% larger response and more realistic ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability compared to observed when the ITF is open. In order to isolate the impact of the IO sector atmospheric teleconnections to ENSO, experiments are contrasted that selectively couple/decouple the interannual forcing in the IO. The interannual variability of IO SST forcing is responsible for 3 month lagged widespread downwelling in the Pacific, assisted by off-equatorial curl, leading to warmer NINO3 SST anomaly and improved ENSO validation (significant from 3-9 months). Isolating the impact of observations in the IO sector using regional assimilation identifies large-scale warming in the IO that acts to intensify the easterlies of the Walker circulation and increases pervasive upwelling across the Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific, and improving ENSO validation (r ~ 0.05, RMS~0.08C). Lastly, the positive impact of more accurate fresh water forcing is demonstrated to address inadequate precipitation forecasts in operational coupled models. Aquarius SSS assimilation improves the mixed layer density and enhances mixing, setting off upwelling that eventually cools the eastern Pacific after 6 months, counteracting the pervasive warming of most coupled models and significantly improving ENSO validation from 5-11 months. In summary, the ITF oceanic pathway, the atmospheric teleconnection, the impact of observations in the IO, and improved Indo-Pacific SSS are all responsible for ENSO forecast improvements, and so each aspect of this study contributes to a better overall understanding of ENSO. Therefore, the upstream influence of the IO should be thought of as integral to the functioning of ENSO phenomenon.

Procalcitonin Biomarker Kinetics to Predict Multiorgan Dysfunction Syndrome in Children With Sepsis and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome

Background: Procalcitonin (PCT) kinetics is a good prognosis marker in infectious diseases, but few studies of children sepsis have been performed. Objectives: The aim of our study was to examine kinetics of procalcitonin, to evaluate its relationship with severity and to analyze its usefulness in the prediction of multiorgan dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Patients and Methods: Prospective observational study in an 8-bed pediatric intensive care unit of a university hospital. Sixty-two children aged 0-19 years with systemic inflammatory response syndrome or septic states. The degree of severity was evaluated according pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) score. Blood tests to determine levels of PCT were taken if the patients had the criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome or sepsis. The serum to determine levels of PCT in control group has been taken from patients undergoing elective surgery. Results: Higher values of PCT were identified in patients with PELOD score 12 and more compared to those with PELOD < 12 (P = 0.016). Similarly, higher PCT values were found in patients who developed MODS in contrast to those without MODS (P = 0.011). According to ROC analysis cut-off value of 4.05 ng/mL was found to best discriminate patients with PELOD < 12 and PELOD ≥ 12 with AUC = 0.675 (P = 0.035). Effect of procalcitonin levels on mortality was not demonstrated. Conclusions: Levels of procalcitonin from day 1 to day 5 are related to the severity and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome in children.

Growth, feed intake, survival, and histological response of white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei fed diets containing grains naturally contaminated with aflatoxin = Crecimiento, consumo de alimento, supervivencia y respuesta histológica del camarón blanco Litopenaeus vannamei alimentado con dietas de granos contaminados naturalmente con aflatoxinas

Two feeding trials were carried out to evaluate the effect of diets containing corn or peanut grains naturally contaminated with aflatoxins on the growth, feed intake, survival, and histological response of the white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei. In trial 1, four experimental diets were formulated to contain 0, 500, 1000, and 2000 g kg–1 of total aflatoxins (TA) and fed to L. vannamei juveniles for 28 days. In trial 2, six experimental diets were formulated to contain 0, 10, 20, 40, 60, and 120 g kg–1 TA and fed to L. vannamei juveniles for 64 days. Feed intake and weight gain were significantly affected by the presence of aflatoxins from naturally contaminated grains. Feed conversion rate increased significantly from a level of inclusion of 60 g kg–1. Survival was significantly reduced only for shrimp fed diets supplemented with 1000 and 2000 g kg–1 TA. Shrimp exposed to higher aflatoxin inclusion levels presented significantly lower lipid vacuole levels in R-cells (12–28%), lower B-cell activity, and lower mitotic E-cell activity. Tubular epithelial atrophy increased from the inclusion level of 20 g kg–1. Hepatopancreatocyte sloughing was significantly higher in shrimp fed diets supplemented with 1000 and 2000 g kg–1 TA. It is worth noting that shrimp fed 40 g kg–1 TA presented a high hepatopancreatocyte sloughing coefficient. Based on these results we conclude that the presence of aflatoxins, even at low levels, reduces feed intake and weight gain, and alters the cells of the hepatopancreas. RESUMEN. Se llevaron a cabo dos bioensayos para evaluar el efecto de granos de maíz y maní contaminados naturalmente con aflatoxinas sobre el crecimiento, consumo de alimento, supervivencia y daños histológicos de juveniles del camarón blanco Litopenaeus vannamei. Para el bioensayo 1, se formularon cuatro dietas con 0, 500, 1000 y 2000 g kg–1 de aflatoxinas totales (AT) y se proporcionaron a juveniles de L. vannamei durante 28 días. Para el bioensayo 2, se formularon seis dietas con 0, 10, 20, 40, 60 y 120 g kg–1 AT y se proporcionaron a juveniles de L. vannamei durante 64 días. El consumo de alimento fue significativamente afectado por la presencia de aflatoxinas. La tasa de conversión alimenticia incrementó significativamente a partir de un nivel de inclusión de 60 g kg–1. La supervivencia fue significativamente reducida solamente en los camarones que fueron alimentados con las dietas suplementadas con 1000 y 2000 g kg–1 AT. Los camarones expuestos a los niveles de inclusión altos presentaron un menor nivel de vacuolas lipídicas en las células R (12–28%), y una menor actividad de las células B y de la actividad mitótica de las células E. La atrofia de los túbulos del epitelio se incrementó a partir de un nivel de inclusión de 20 g kg–1. La descamación de las células del hepatopáncreas fue significativamente mayor en camarones alimentados con las dietas suplementadas con 1000 y 2000 g kg–1 AT, mientras que para las dosis bajas no se observaron diferencias significativas, aunque en camarones alimentados a partir de 40 g kg–1 AT se observa un coeficiente de descamación alto. Con base en los resultados, se concluye que la presencia de aflatoxinas, incluso a niveles bajos, reduce el consumo de alimento y el aumento de peso y altera las células del hepatopáncreas.

Implementation of an intelligent sensor for measurement and prediction of solar radiation and atmospheric temperature

Dissertação de mestrado, Engenharia Electrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2011

Prediction of peptide and protein propensity for amyloid formation

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Elimination of urine in response to water intake is consistent in well-hydrated individuals

A simple method has been recently proposed to assess acute hydration status in humans; however, several questions remain regarding its reliability, validity, and practicality. Objective: Establish reliability of a simple method to assess euhydration, that is, to analyze whether this method can be used as a consistent indicator of a person´s hydration status. In addition, the study sought to assess the effect exercise has on urine volume when euhydration is maintained and a standardized volume of water is ingested. Methods: Five healthy physically active men and five healthy physically active women, 22.5 ± 2.3 years of age (mean ± standard deviation) reported to the laboratory after fasting for 10 hours or more on three occasions, each one week apart. During the two identical resting euhydration conditions (EuA and EuB), participants remained seated for 45 minutes. During the exercise condition (EuExer), participants exercised intermittently in an environmental chamber (average temperature and relative humidity = 32 ± 3°C and 65 ± 7%, respectively) for a period of 45 minutes and drank water to offset loss due to sweating. The order of treatments was randomized. Upon finishing the treatment period, they ingested a volume of water equivalent to 1.43% body mass (BM) within 30 minutes. Urine was collected and measured henceforth every 30 minutes for 3 hours. Results: Urine volume eliminated during EuExer (1205 ± 399.5 ml) was not different from EuB (1072.2±413.1 ml) or EuA (1068 ± 382.87 ml) (p-value = 0.44). Both resting conditions were practically identical (p-value = 0.98) and presented a strong intraclass correlation (r = 0.849, p-value = 0.001). Conclusions: This method, besides simple, proved to be consistent in all conditions; therefore, it can be used with the certainty that measurements are valid and reliable.

A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.

Alternate furrow irrigation of four fresh-market tomato cultivars under semi-arid condition of Ethiopia – Part II: Physiological response

Understanding the variation in physiological response to deficit irrigation together with better knowledge on physiological characteristics of different genotypes that contribute to drought adaptation mechanisms would be helpful in transferring different irrigation technologies to farmers. A field experiment was carried to investigate the physiological response of four tomato cultivars (Fetan, Chali, Cochoro and ARP Tomato d2) to moderate water deficit induced by alternate furrow irrigation (AFI) and deficit irrigation (DI) under semi-arid condition of Ethiopia during 2013 and 2014. The study also aimed at identifying physiological attributes to the fruit yield of tomato under different deficit irrigation techniques. A factorial combination of irrigation treatments and cultivar were arranged in a complete randomized design with three replicates. Results showed that stomatal conductance (g_s) was significantly reduced while photosynthetic performance measured as chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv’/Fm’), relative water content (RWC) and leaf ash content remained unaffected under deficit irrigations. Significant differences among cultivars were found for water use efficiency (WUE), g_s, chlorophyll content (Chl_SPAD), normal difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf ash content and fruit growth rate. However, cultivar differences in WUE were more accounted for by the regulation of g_s, therefore, g_s could be useful for breeders for screening large numbers of genotypes with higher WUE under deficit irrigation condition. The study result also demonstrated that cultivar with traits that contribute to achieve higher yields under deficit irrigation strategies has the potential to increase WUE.

Ecological quality assessment of transitional waters based on fish assemblages in Portuguese estuaries: The Estuarine Fish Assessment Index (EFAI)

The assessment of water quality has changed markedly worldwide over the last years, especially in Europe due to the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Fish was considered a key-element in this context and several fish-based multi-metric indices have been proposed. In this study, we propose a multi-metric index, the Estuarine Fish Assessment Index (EFAI), developed for Portuguese estuaries, designed for the overall assessment of transitional waters, which could also be applied at the water body level within an estuary. The EFAI integrates seven metrics: species richness, percentage of marine migrants, number of species and abundance of estuarine resident species, number of species and abundance of piscivorous species, status of diadromous species, status of introduced species and status of disturbance sensitive species. Fish sampling surveys were conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2010, using beam trawl, in 13 estuarine systems along the Portuguese coast. Most of the metrics presented a high variability among the transitional systems surveyed. According to the EFAI values, Portuguese estuaries presented a "Good" water quality status (except the Douro in a particular year). The assessments in different years were generally concordant, with a few exceptions. The relationship between the EFAI and the Anthropogenic Pressure Index (API) was not significant, but a negative and significant correlation was registered between the EFAI and the expert judgement pressure index, at both estuary and water body level. The ordination analysis performed to evaluate similarities among North-East Atlantic Geographical Intercalibration Group (NEAGIG) fish-based indices put in evidence four main groups: the French index, since it is substantially different from all the other indices (uses only four metrics based on densities); indices from Ireland, United Kingdom and Spain (Asturias and Cantabria); the Dutch and German indices; and the indices of Belgium. Portugal and Spain (Basque country). The need for detailed studies, including comparative approaches, on several aspects of these assessment tools, especially in what regards their response to anthropogenic pressures was stressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factores asociados a respuesta de abatacept subcutaneo en artritis reumatoide

INTRODUCCION Dado que la artritis reumatoide es la artropatía inflamatoria más frecuente en el mundo, siendo altamente discapacitante y causando gran impacto de alto costo, se busca ofrecer al paciente opciones terapéuticas y calidad de vida a través del establecimiento de un tratamiento oportuno y eficaz, teniendo presentes aquellos predictores de respuesta previo a instaurar determinada terapia. Existen pocos estudios que permitan establecer aquellos factores de adecuada respuesta para inicio de terapia biológica con abatacept, por lo cual en este estudio se busca determinar cuáles son esos posibles factores. METODOLOGIA Estudio analítico de tipo corte transversal de 94 pacientes con diagnóstico de AR, evaluados para determinar las posibles variables que influyen en la respuesta a terapia biológica con abatacept. Se incluyeron 67 de los 94 pacientes al modelo de regresión logística, que son aquellos pacientes en que fue posible medir la respuesta al tratamiento (respuesta EULAR) a través de la determinación del DAS 28 y así discriminar en dos grupos de comparación (respuesta y no respuesta). DISCUSION DE RESULTADOS La presencia de alta actividad de la enfermedad al inicio de la terapia biológica, aumenta la probabilidad de respuesta al tratamiento respecto al grupo con baja/moderada actividad de la enfermedad; OR 4,19 - IC 95%(1,18 – 14.9), (p 0,027). La ausencia de erosiones óseas aumenta la probabilidad de presentar adecuada respuesta a la terapia biológica respecto aquellos con erosiones, con un OR 3,1 (1,01-9,55), (p 0,048). Niveles de VSG y presencia de manifestaciones extra-articulares son otros datos de interés encontrados en el análisis bivariado. Respecto a las variables o características como predictores de respuesta al tratamiento con abatacept, se encuentran estudios que corroboran los hallazgos de este estudio, respecto al alto puntaje del DAS 28 al inicio de la terapia (9, 12). CONCLUSIONES Existen distintas variables que determinan la respuesta a los diferentes biológicos para manejo de AR. Es imprescindible evaluar dichos factores de manera individual con el fin de lograr de manera efectiva el control de la enfermedad y así mejorar la calidad de vida del individuo (medicina personalizada). Existen variables tales como la alta actividad de la enfermedad y la ausencia de erosiones como predictores de respuesta en la terapia con abatacept.