State Legislation Monitoring Report FY2004, February 2005

The Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning issued its first state legislation monitoring report in February 2002, covering the first six months’ impact of Senate File 543 (which enacted a number of sentencing changes) on the justice system; monitoring of the correctional impact of this bill was at the request of several members of the legislature. Since then, the Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning Advisory Council has requested that CJJP monitor the correctional impact of enacted legislation of particular interest. This report covers monitoring results or future plans to monitor the following: 1. Changes in “crack” cocaine and “powder” cocaine penalties under Chapter 124.401 (effective FY2004; see p.3). 2. Commitments to prison involving manufacture, distribution, or possession of methamphetamine under Chapter 124.401 (see p.5). 3. Prosecution of offenders for child endangerment under Chapter 726.6(g) for permitting the presence of a child or minor at a location where a controlled substance manufacturing or a product possession violation occurs (see p.7). 4. Provision of an enhanced penalty for manufacturing of controlled substances under Chapter 124.401C when children are present and the offender is not charged under section 726.6(g) (see p. 7). 5. Creating a new offense when a retailer sells more than two packages of any product containing pseudoephedrine (chapter 126.23A) and providing for an enhanced penalty under Chapter 714.7C when a theft involves more than two packages of similar products (see p.8). 6. Establishment of parole eligibility at 70% of time served for persons sentenced under the “85% law” provisions of Iowa Code Section 902.12. (effective FY2005; see p. 9).

Optimal public rationing and price response

We study optimal public rationing of an indivisible good and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and costs of provisions. Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Public rationing determines the characteristics of consumers who seek supply from the private sector, where a firm sets prices based on consumers' cost information and in response to the rationing rule. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information. In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Supplying all poor consumers would leave only rich consumers in the private market, and the firm would react by setting a high price. Rationing some poor consumers is optimal, and implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold. Wealth information is not used. Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium total consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth. [Authors]

An Illustrated Guide for Monitoring and Protecting Bridge Waterways Against Scour - Project TR-515 - Final Report, March 2006

This report is a well illustrated and practical Guide intended to aid engineers and engineering technicians in monitoring, maintaining, and protecting bridge waterways so as to mitigate or prevent scour from adversely affecting the structural performance of bridge abutments, piers, and approach road embankments. Described and illustrated here are the scour processes affecting the stability of these components of bridge waterways. Also described and illustrated are methods for monitoring waterways, and the various methods for repairing scour damage and protecting bridge waterways against scour. The Guide focuses on smaller bridges, especially those in Iowa. Scour processes at small bridges are complicated by the close proximity of abutments, piers, and waterway banks, such that scour processes interact in ways difficult to predict and for which reliable design relationships do not exist. Additionally, blockage by woody debris or by ice, along with changes in approach channel alignment, can have greater effects on pier and abutment scour for smaller bridges. These considerations tend to cause greater reliance on monitoring for smaller bridges. The Guide is intended to augment and support, as a source of information, existing procedures for monitoring bridge waterways. It also may prompt some adjustments of existing forms and reports used for bridge monitoring. In accord with increasing emphasis on effective management of public facilities like bridges, the Guide ventures to include an example report format for quantitative risk assessment applied to bridge waterways. Quantitative risk assessment is useful when many bridges have to be evaluated for scour risk and damage, and priorities need to be determined for repair and protection work. Such risk assessment aids comparison of bridges at risk. It is expected that bridge inspectors will implement the Guide as a concise, handy reference available back at the office. The Guide also likely may be implemented as an educational primer for new inspectors who have yet to become acquainted with waterway scour. Additionally, the Guide may be implemented as a part of process to check whether existing bridge-inspection forms or reports adequately encompass bridge-waterway scour.

Monitoring the effects of adult psychotherapy in routine practice in Switzerland: A feasibility trial

Background: Several studies have been published on the effects of psychotherapy in routine practice. Complementing traditional views summarised as 'dose-effect models', Stiles et al. put forward data consistent with the responsive regulation model underlining the importance of the client's active participant role in defining length of treatment. One may ask what level of change reached by a patient is considered to be the 'good enough level' (GEL) and if it is related to the duration of psychotherapy. Aims: The main objective of the present feasibility trial was to monitor the patient's session-by-session evolution using a self-report questionnaire in order to define the GEL, i.e. the number of sessions necessary for the patient to reach significant change. Method: A total of N=13 patients undergoing psychotherapy in routine practice participated in the study, completing the Outcome Questionnaire - 45.2 (OQ-45), which assesses the symptom level, interpersonal relationships and social role after every psychotherapy session. The data was analysed using multi-level analyses (HLMs). Results: High feasibility of fine-grained assessment of effects of psychotherapy in routine practice in Switzerland was shown; response rates being acceptable; however, detailed analysis of the GEL was not feasible within the short study time-frame. Conclusions: Reflections on the political context of monitoring in the specific case of routine psychiatric practice in Switzerland are discussed.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Monitoring of the Launched Girder Bridge over the Iowa River on US 20, March 2004

The objective of the study presented in this report was to document the launch of the Iowa River Bridge and to monitor and evaluate the structural performance of the bridge superstructure and substructure during the launch. The Iowa Department of Transportation used an incremental launching method, which is relatively unique for steel I-girder bridges, to construct the Iowa River Bridge over an environmentally sensitive river valley in central Iowa. The bridge was designed as two separate roadways consisting of four steel plate girders each that are approximately 11 ft deep and span approximately 301 ft each over five spans. The concrete bridge deck was not placed until after both roadways had been launched. One of the most significant monitoring and evaluation observations related to the superstructure was that the bottom flange (and associated web region) was subjected to extremely large stresses during the crossing of launch rollers. Regarding the substructure performance, the column stresses did not exceed reasonable design limits during the daylong launches. The scope of the study did not allow adequate quantification of the measured applied launch forces at the piers. Future proposed esearch should provide an opportunity to address this. The overall experimental performance of the bridge during the launch was compared with the predicted design performance. In general, the substructure design, girder contact stress, and total launching force assumptions correlated well with the experimental results. The design assumptions for total axial force in crossframe members, on the other hand, differed from the experimental results by as much as 300%.

Optimal Contracts, Adverse Selection, and Social Preferences: An Experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

Optimal Design of Permit Markets with an Ex Ante Pollution Target, August 2006

In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

Is nurse-measured blood pressure a valid substitute for ambulatory blood pressure monitoring?

BACKGROUND: Because ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is not available everywhere, the objective of the study was to determine whether nurse-measured blood pressure could be an acceptable substitute to ABPM. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 2385 consecutive patients referred to our hypertension clinic for the performance of ABPM. Before ambulatory monitoring was performed, a nurse-measured BP was obtained three times using a Y-tube connecting the sphygmomanometer and the recorder. We compared the mean value of the three nurse-measured blood pressures with that of the 12h daytime ambulatory monitoring, considered as the reference. RESULTS: The difference between the nurse-measured and the ambulatory blood pressure was small but statistically significant, indicating that nurse-measured blood pressure tends to overestimate both diastolic and systolic blood pressure. The difference between the nurse blood pressure and ABPM was greater among treated hypertensive patients than untreated patients. To diagnose hypertension, defined as a blood pressure of over 140/90mmHg by ABPM, the positive predictive value of the nurse blood pressure was 0.81 and the negative predictive value 0.63. However, these predictive values could be improved with less stringent cut-off values of blood pressure. Thus, for a diastolic blood pressure above 100mmHg, the positive predictive value of nurse blood pressure was 0.55 and the negative predictive value 0.91. These figures were relatively similar for previously treated and untreated patients. CONCLUSION: Nurse blood pressure is less accurate than ABPM in diagnosing hypertension, defined as a blood pressure of over 140/90mmHg. It could, however, be an acceptable substitute, especially to exclude people who do not need to be treated, in situations where lower resources require a less rigorous definition of hypertension.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.

Iowa Adult Literacy Local Program Monitoring Guidelines Revised, July 2007

The purpose of this document is to provide guidelines for the annual monitoring and evaluation of Iowa’s adult literacy funded local programs. Section 224(b)(3) of the Adult Education and Family Literacy Act (AEFLA) states that the State Education Agency (SEA) will provide “a description of how the eligible agency [Iowa Department of Education] will evaluate annually the effectiveness of the adult education and literacy activities based on the performance measures described in section 212.” In compliance with that mandate, the following describes the Iowa Department of Education’s procedures for local adult literacy program evaluation strategies.