Empirical essays on IPOS: the Brazilian case

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the main factors that determine the first-day return and the Flipping activity in Brazilian IPOs, taking into account expected results according to national and international researches. The data base encompasses IPOs that took place between May 2004 and February 2011, summing up to 129 IPOs and approximately R$ 128 billion offering. The first-day return, which means the “money left on the table”, was on average 4.6% taking into consideration the issue price, while the Flipping activity totalized R$ 7.2 billion, meaning 5.6% of the offering. The first-day return was analyzed before and after the first trade, and evidences were found supporting (a) the exogenous determination of the issue price, (b) the opening price dependence of prospectus disclosure and of other variables, observable previously to the bookbuilding process, and (c) the cascade behavior of investors in the pricing after the first trade, particularly driven by the underwriter behavior. In regards to the Flipping, it was notorious depending on how much the IPO succeeded, being concentrated in and homogeneous along the first-day, despite the intense negotiation in the first minute. As a general contribution to literature, it was concluded that Information Asymmetry Theory arguments are not sufficient to explain the first-day Underpricing and the Flipping, being necessary arguments based on Behavioral Finance adapted to an intraday perspective.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Opening ILT blackbox: Exploring recognition-based leadership perceptions with conjoint analysis

Although research on Implicit Leadership Theories (ILT) has put great effort on determining what attributes define a leader prototype, little attention has been given to understanding the relative importance of each of these attributes in the categorization process by followers. Knowing that recognition-based leadership perceptions are the result of the match between followers’ ILTs and the perceived attributes in their actual leaders, understanding how specific prototypical leader attributes impact this impression formation process is particularly relevant. In this study, we draw upon socio-cognitive theories to explore how followers cognitively process the information about a leader’s attributes. By using Conjoint Analysis (CA), a technique that allows us to measure an individual’s trade-offs when making choices about multi-attributed options, we conducted a series of 4 studies with a total of 879 participants. Our results demonstrate that attributes’ importance for individuals’ leadership perceptions formation is rather heterogeneous, and that some attributes can enhance or spoil the importance of other prototypical attributes. Finally, by manipulating the leadership domain, we show that the weighting pattern of attributes is context dependent, as suggested by the connectionist approach to leadership categorization. Our findings also demonstrate that Conjoint Analysis can be a valuable tool for ILT research.

George Day Welsh nas relações entre a Madeira e os Estados Unidos da América (primeira metade do século XIX)

Tendo este trabalho como objecto de estudo a personalidade do cidadão americano George Day Welsh, radicado na Madeira no início do século XIX, pretende-se caracterizar, ao longo desta dissertação, os elementos fundamentais das relações entre a Ilha da Madeira e os Estados Unidos da América, aos níveis político, económico, social e cultural, e apenas no período relativo à primeira metade do século XIX. Organizado em quatro partes fundamentais (onde não se incluem nem a apresentação inicial que se segue, nem os apêndices finais de documentos e de gravuras antigas), este estudo começa por, na primeira parte, descrever as relações de Portugal com a Inglaterra e, em particular, com os Estados Unidos da América, país de origem de George Day Welsh, não deixando também de documentar a ida de marinheiros assim como a presença de madeirenses nos Estados Unidos da América. Na segunda parte, começando a traçar o percurso biográfico de George Day Welsh, descrevem-se os seus negócios e as suas acções em alguns dos concelhos da Madeira, dando igualmente uma especial atenção ao período da Guerra Civil, às relações concorrenciais entre aquele cidadão americano e John Marsh, assim como ao papel cultural de George Welsh na Madeira. As relações familiares de Welsh na Madeira são o assunto da terceira parte, onde se focam as questões relacionados com a sua chegada à Ilha, o seu casamento, a sua descendência, e a sua proximidade em relação a outros madeirenses ilustres, como é o caso do Conde de Carvalhal. Na conclusão final desta dissertação, referem-se não só as ideias principais deste percurso de investigação como algumas pistas para aperfeiçoá-lo e completá-lo.

The Predation of Artemia Nauplii by the Larvae of the Amazon River Prawn, Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller, 1862), is Affected by Prey Density, Time of Day, and Ontogenetic Development

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Evaluation of tear production with modified Schirmer tear test-1 during the neonatal period in cats

Objetivou-se avaliar a produção lacrimal, por meio do teste da lágrima de Schirmer-1 modificado (TLS-1m) em gatos neonatos. Outrossim, estabelecer in vitro a existência de correlação entre o TLS e o TLS-1m. Tiras pa-dronizadas para realização do TLS foram partidas ao meio e após a abertura das pálpebras, a produção lacrimal dos neonatos (n=15) foi aferida em ambos os olhos (TLS-1m), diariamente, até o sétimo e aos 14, 21 e 28 dias. Os animais foram pesados diariamente até os 28 dias de idade. Os resultados foram comparados estatisticamente (p<0,05). Durante os primeiros sete dias de avaliação, a média geral obtida pelo TLS-1m foi de 0,76±0,08 mm/minuto. Não se constatou diferença significativa entre os olhos direito e esquerdo, em nenhum dos períodos avaliados (p=1,00). A produção lacrimal elevou-se significativamente, do 14º até o 28º dia, comparativamente aos primeiros sete dias (p<0,05). Observou-se correlação positiva entre parâmetros de maturidade e a produção lacrimal (p<0,0001). A distância entre as linhas de cada tira foi significativa (p<0,0001). Conclui-se que a produção lacrimal no período neonatal em gatos é bem inferior aos valores de referência descritos para adultos e jovens da mesma espécie. Não é possível extrapolar valores obtidos com o TLS-1 modificado para o TLS-1 padrão.

Salmonella spp investigation in transport boxes of day-old birds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Experimental infection by Salmonella enterica subsp enterica serovar kottbus in day-old broiler chickens

The strain used in this work was a Salmonella enterica subsp enterica serovar Kottbus (6,8:e,h:1,5) isolated from imported day-old ducklings in Laboratório Nacional Agropecuário (LANAGRO/SP) of the Ministry of Agriculture of Brazil (MAPA). In view of the lack of information available about this Salmonella isolate and also because it was detected in day-old imported birds, this study was carried out to investigate the dissemination of S. Kottbus among newly hatched chicks. The birds were placed in three groups: one group of 20 birds received 0.1 mL of S. Kottbus culture containing 1.2 x 10(8) CFU/mL, the second group of 20 birds was inoculated with 1.2 x 10(5) CFU/mL and the third group of 10 birds was untreated (control group). Results were similar for both infected groups. The bacterium was recovered from cloacal swabs collected from the first day following the experimental infection until the end of the trial (42 days post-inoculation). At 15 and 42 days post-inoculation (dpi), half of the birds of each group were killed for bacteriological examination of cecal contents, liver and spleen. At 15 dpi, viable cell counts of S. Kottbus were obtained in all kinds of samples. At 42 dpi, Salmonella was present in the liver and spleen of few birds, but in large amounts in the cecal contents of almost all birds.

Seed anatomy and germination of Phoenix roebelenii O'Brien (Arecaceae)

O objetivo desse trabalho foi estudar a morfologia, anatomia e o processo germinativo de sementes de Phoenix roebelenii. Para o levantamento dos dados biométricos foram utilizadas 100 sementes de frutos recém-colhidos, deixados secar ao ar por um dia. Para a germinação, quatro repetições de 50 sementes tratadas com Vitavax-Thiran foram semeadas em bandejas de plástico, contendo Sphagnum sp. como substrato e mantidas sob condições ambientais de laboratório. Detalhes da morfologia da semente foram documentados com o uso de microscopia eletrônica de varredura e esquematizados com auxílio de câmara clara, acoplada ao estereomicroscópio. Foram confeccionadas lâminas permanentes com cortes do embrião, para o estudo de sua anatomia. As dimensões médias das sementes foram: 10,32mm comprimento, 5,21mm largura e 3,91mm espessura. O peso de 1000 sementes foi de 151,1g e 1kg continha 6600 unidades. O início da germinação variou entre 27 e 58 dias. As sementes são albuminosas, com endosperma duro e o embrião é pouco diferenciado, lateral e periférico. A germinação inicia-se pela abertura de um opérculo, através do qual é emitido o pecíolo cotiledonar com o eixo embrionário na extremidade. O pecíolo funciona, internamente, como um haustório, digerindo gradativamente o endosperma. Na sua parte posterior, desenvolve-se a plúmula, que emerge através de uma fenda. Nota-se o aparecimento de raízes secundárias na porção anterior da raiz primária.

Chemical and microbiological changes and aerobic stability of marandu grass silages after silo opening

Esta pesquisa foi realizada com os objetivos de caracterizar a microbiologia e avaliar a estabilidade aeróbia de silagens de capim-marandu contendo polpa cítrica peletizada (PCP). A forragem colhida foi submetida aos seguintes tratamentos: silagem de capim-marandu; silagem de capim-marandu + 5% PCP e silagem do capim-marandu + 10% de PCP com base na matéria natural. As alterações químicas e microbiológicas foram feitas aos 0, 2, 4 e 6 dias após a abertura dos silos (tambores de metal com 80 cm de altura e 50 cm de diâmetro). Na avaliação da estabilidade aeróbia por meio da alteração da temperatura, 3 kg de silagem foram colocados em caixas de isopor, que foram armazenadas em câmara climática. Nos dois ensaios realizados, utilizou-se delineamento inteiramente ao acaso com cinco repetições, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, de modo que os níveis de PCP na silagem corresponderam às parcelas e o tempo, às subparcelas. As silagens sem polpa apresentaram desenvolvimento de bacilos e enterobactérias e aumento do pH no decorrer do desabastecimento dos silos. A presença de leveduras foi detectada nas silagens contendo o aditivo e aumentou do primeiro ao sexto dia de aeração. A digestibilidade in vitro da matéria seca (DIVMS) reduziu com o aumento dos tempos de aeração. A temperatura nas silagens com 10% de PCP aumentou durante a aerobiose. Com a abertura dos silos, as silagens apresentaram-se instáveis, seja pelo desenvolvimento de bactérias seja pelo desenvolvimento de leveduras, o que reduziu seu valor nutritivo.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic parameters for first lactation test-day milk flow in Holstein cows

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Test-day milk yield as a selection criterion for dairy buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis Artiodactyla, Bovidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)