Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

The role of the eosinophil-selective chemokine, eotaxin, in allergic and non-allergic airways inflammation

Blood eosinophilia and tissue infiltration by eosinophils are frequently observed in allergic inflammation and parasitic infections. This selective accumulation of eosinophils suggested the existence of endogenous eosinophil-selective chemoattractants. We have recently discovered a novel eosinophil-selective chemoattractant which we called eotaxin in an animal model of allergic airways disease. Eotaxin is generated in both allergic and non-allergic bronchopulmonary inflammation. The early increase in eotaxin paralled eosinophil infiltration in the lung tissue in both models. An antibody to IL-5 suppressed lung eosinophilia, correlating with an inhibition of eosinophil release from bone marrow, without affecting eotaxin generation. This suggests that endogenous IL-5 is important for eosinophil migration but does not appear to be a stimulus for eotaxin production. Constitutive levels of eotaxin observed in guinea-pig lung may be responsible for the basal lung eosinophilia observed in this species. Allergen-induced eotaxin was present mainly in the epithelium and alveolar macrophages, as detected by immunostaining. In contrast there was no upregulation of eotaxin by the epithelial cells following the injection of Sephadex beads and the alveolar macrophage and mononuclear cells surrounding the granuloma were the predominant positive staining cells. Eotaxin and related chemokines acting through the CCR3 receptor may play a major role in eosinophil recruitment in allergic inflammation and parasitic diseases and thus offer an attractive target for therapeutic intervention.

VeriStrat(®) has a prognostic value for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line: Pooled analysis of SAKK19/05 and NTR528.

BACKGROUND: VeriStrat(®) is a serum proteomic test used to determine whether patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have already received chemotherapy are likely to have good or poor outcomes from treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib. The main objective of our retrospective study was to evaluate the role of VS as a marker of overall survival (OS) in patients treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were pooled from two phase II trials (SAKK19/05 and NTR528). For survival analyses, a log-rank test was used to determine if there was a statistically significant difference between groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of any separation was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 117 patients were analyzed. VeriStrat classified patients into two groups which had a statistically significant difference in duration of OS (p=0.0027, HR=0.480, 95% confidence interval: 0.294-0.784). CONCLUSION: VeriStrat has a prognostic role in patients with advanced, nonsquamous NSCLC treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. Further work is needed to study the predictive role of VeriStrat for erlotinib and bevacizumab in chemotherapy-untreated patients.

Identifying genetic signatures of selection in a non-model species, alpine gentian (Gentiana nivalis L.), using a landscape genetic approach

It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.

Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

NS2 protein of hepatitis C virus interacts with structural and non-structural proteins towards virus assembly.

Growing experimental evidence indicates that, in addition to the physical virion components, the non-structural proteins of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are intimately involved in orchestrating morphogenesis. Since it is dispensable for HCV RNA replication, the non-structural viral protein NS2 is suggested to play a central role in HCV particle assembly. However, despite genetic evidences, we have almost no understanding about NS2 protein-protein interactions and their role in the production of infectious particles. Here, we used co-immunoprecipitation and/or fluorescence resonance energy transfer with fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy analyses to study the interactions between NS2 and the viroporin p7 and the HCV glycoprotein E2. In addition, we used alanine scanning insertion mutagenesis as well as other mutations in the context of an infectious virus to investigate the functional role of NS2 in HCV assembly. Finally, the subcellular localization of NS2 and several mutants was analyzed by confocal microscopy. Our data demonstrate molecular interactions between NS2 and p7 and E2. Furthermore, we show that, in the context of an infectious virus, NS2 accumulates over time in endoplasmic reticulum-derived dotted structures and colocalizes with both the envelope glycoproteins and components of the replication complex in close proximity to the HCV core protein and lipid droplets, a location that has been shown to be essential for virus assembly. We show that NS2 transmembrane region is crucial for both E2 interaction and subcellular localization. Moreover, specific mutations in core, envelope proteins, p7 and NS5A reported to abolish viral assembly changed the subcellular localization of NS2 protein. Together, these observations indicate that NS2 protein attracts the envelope proteins at the assembly site and it crosstalks with non-structural proteins for virus assembly.

Opposite effect of counterions on the persistence length of nicked and non-nicked DNA.

Using cryo-electron microscopy we reconstructed the three-dimensional trajectories adopted in cryovitrified solutions by double-stranded DNA molecules in which the backbone of one strand lacked a phosphate at regular intervals of 20 nucleotides. The shape of such nicked DNA molecules was compared with that of DNA molecules with exactly the same sequence but without any single-stranded scissions. Upon changing the salt concentration we observed opposite effects of charge neutralization on nicked and non-nicked DNA. In low salt solutions (10 mM Tris-HCl, 10 mM NaCl) the applied dense nicking caused ca 3.5-fold reduction of the DNA persistence length as compared with non-nicked DNA. Upon increasing the salt concentration (to 150 mM NaCl and 10 mM MgCl2) the persistence length of non-nicked DNA appreciably decreased while that of nicked DNA molecules increased by a factor of 2.

Conserved non-genic sequences - an unexpected feature of mammalian genomes.

Mammalian genomes contain highly conserved sequences that are not functionally transcribed. These sequences are single copy and comprise approximately 1-2% of the human genome. Evolutionary analysis strongly supports their functional conservation, although their potentially diverse, functional attributes remain unknown. It is likely that genomic variation in conserved non-genic sequences is associated with phenotypic variability and human disorders. So how might their function and contribution to human disorders be examined?

Evaluation of tumor vascularisation in two rat sarcoma models for studying isolated lung perfusion : Injection route determines the origin of tumour vessels

Résumé Introduction: La perfusion isolée cytostatique du poumon est une technique attractive qui permet l'administration des doses élevées d'un agent cytostatique tout en épargnant dans la mesure du possible la circulation systémique. Cependant, la perfusion de l'artère pulmonaire risque d'épargner le territoire pulmonaire vascularisé par l'intermédiaire des artères bronchiques, ce qui pourrait diminuer l'efficacité de ce traitement au cas où la lésion ciblée est vascularisée par les artères bronchiques. Ce travail est destiné au développement d'un modèle tumoral au niveau des poumons de rongeur (rat) porteur d'un sarcome pulmonaire afin de déterminer si la voie d'injection des cellules tumorales (intraveineuse, versus intratumorale) influencera la vascularisation des tumeurs (provenant du système artères pulmonaires ou artères bronchiques). Méthod: Des tumeurs de sarcomes pulmonaires ont été générées par injection d'une suspension cellulaire de sarcome, soit par injection intraveineuse, soit directement dans le parenchyme pulmonaire par thoracotomie. Ensuite, une perfusion isolée du poumon porteur de la tumeur à l'aide de l'encre a été effectuée, soit par l'artère pulmonaire, soit par le système des artères bronchiques. La distribution de l'encre dans les vaisseaux tumoraux ainsi que dans les vaisseaux non tumoraux du poumon adjacent a été investiguée à l'aide d'une analyse histologique des poumons perfusés. Résultat: L'administration intraveineuse et intratumorale de la suspension de cellules tumorales résulte en des tumeurs similaires sur le plan histologique. Néanmoins, l'injection intra-parenchymateuse démontre des tumeurs plus homogènes et avec un développement plus prédictible, était associée à une survie plus longue qu'après injection intraveineuse. Les analyses histologiques après perfusion isolée à l'aide de l'encre démontre que les tumeurs résultant de l'injection intraveineuse ont développé une vascularisation se basant sur le système d'artères pulmonaires tandis que les tumeurs émergeant après injection intraparenchymateuse ont développé une vascularisation provenant du système des artères bronchiques. Conclusion: Ce travail démontre pour la première fois l'importance du mode de génération de tumeurs pulmonaires en ce qui concerne leur future vascularisation, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur leur traitement par perfusion isolée du poumon. Abstract Isolated cytostatic lung perfusion (ILP) is an attractive technique allowing delivery of a high-dose of cytostatic agents to the lungs while limiting systemic toxicity. In developing a rat model of ILP, we have analysed the effect of the route of tumour cell injection on the source of tumour vessels. Pulmonary sarcomas were estab¬lished by injecting a sarcoma cell suspension either by the intravenous (i.v.) route or directly into the lung paren¬chyma. Ink perfusion through either pulmonary artery (PA) or bronchial arteries (BA) was performed and the characteristics of the tumour deposits defined. i.v. and direct injection methods induced pulmonary sarcoma nodules, with similar histological features. The intraparenchymal injection of tumour cells resulted in more reli¬able and reproducible tumour growth and was associat¬ed with a longer survival of the animals. i.v. injected tumours developed a PA-derived vascular tree whereas directly injected tumours developed a BA-derived vasculature.

Experimental evidence and ecological perspectives for the adaptation of Schistosoma mansoni Sambon, 1907 (Digenea: Schistosomatidae) to a wild host, the water-rat, Nectomys squamipes Brants, 1827 (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae)

Due to the semi aquatic habits and the overlap of the geographical distribution of the water-rat, Nectomys spp., with schistosomiasis endemic areas, these wild rodents are very likely to acquire Schistosoma mansoni infection in their daily activities. The role of the water-rat in the S. mansoni cycle would be substantiated if one could prove that these rodents acquire the parasite during their own activity time, a completely independent time schedule of human activities. To pursue this goal, we performed two field experiments in the municipality of Sumidouro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a schistosomiasis endemic area where N. squamipes is found naturally infected. One experiment was devised as a series of observations of activity time of the water-rat. The other experiment was a test of the occurrence of late transmission of S. mansoni to the water-rat. The daily activity pattern showed that the water-rat is active chiefly just after sunset. At both diurnal and late exposition essays the water-rat sentinels got infected by S. mansoni. These findings clarify ecological and behavioral components necessary to the adaptation of S. mansoni to the water-rat as a non human definitive host and the existence of a transmission cycle involving this animals as a reservoir.

Water-filtered infrared-A radiation (wIRA) is not implicated in cellular degeneration of human skin

Rapport de synthèse : Introduction : le vieillissement cutané est un processus biologique complexe auquel participe une exposition excessive au rayonnement ultraviolet du soleil. En particulier, les longueurs d'onde des rayons ultraviolets A et B (UV-A et UV-B) peuvent induire une augmentation de la synthèse de protéases, comme la métalloprotéinase matricielle 1 (MMP-1), qui est impliquée dans le processus de vieillissement. La thermothérapie par infrarouges, dont les longueurs d'onde sont plus longues que celles des UV, est largement utilisée à des fins thérapeutiques ou cosmétiques. Or, il a été démontré que les infrarouges en filtration aqueuse (IRFA) pouvaient induire une augmentation de la production de MMP-1 et par conséquent être nocifs. Il serait donc intéressant d'évaluer les effets des IRFA au niveau cellulaire et moléculaire. But Expérimental : étudier les effets des lampes à infrarouges en filtration aqueuse utilisées en clinique sur des fibroblastes cutanés humains en culture, afin d'analyser l'expression du gène codant pour la protéine MMP-1. Méthode : des fibroblastes cutanés humain ont été irradiés d'une part avec approximativement 88% d'IRFA (780-1400 nm) et 12% de lumière rouge (LR, 665-780 nm) avec 380 mW/cm2 IRFA(+LR) (333 mW/cm2 IRFA) et d'autre part avec des UV-A comme contrôle. Des courbes de survie cellulaire ont été établies après une exposition allant de 15 minutes à 8 heures au IRFA(+LR) (340-10880 J/cm2 wIRA(+RL), 300-9600 J/cm2 wIRA) ou de 15 à 45 minutes aux UV-A(+BL) (25-75 J/cm2 UV-A(+BL). L'induction de l'ARNm du gène de la MMP-1 a été analysé dans les fibroblastes cutanés humain à deux températures physiologiques (30°C et 37°C) lors d'expositions uniques de 15 à 60 minutes aux IRFA(+LR) (340-1360 J/cm2 IRFA(+LR), 300-1200 J/cm2 IRFA) ou de 30 minutes aux UV-A(+BL) (50 J/cm2 UVA(+BL)). De plus, nous avons effectué des irradiations répétées, une a chaque passage cellulaire jusqu'au passage. 10 de 15 minutes d'IRFA(+LR) 340 J/cm2 IRFA(+LR), 300 J/cm2 IRFA) . Résultats : une exposition unique aux UV-A (+BL) entraîne chez des fibroblastes cutanés humains une augmentation de la mort cellulaire, ainsi qu'une forte augmentation de l'expression du gène codant pour la MMP-1. L'augmentation mise en évidence pour cet ARNm varie en fonction de la technique utilisée : elle est de 11 ± 1 fois par RT-PCR classique, de 76 ± 2 fois par RT-PCR quantitative à 30°C, et de 75 ± 1 fois par RT-PCR quantitative à 37°C. Par contre, une exposition unique ou répétée aux IRFA (+LR) n'induit aucune augmentation de la mort cellulaire, ni de l'expression de l'ARNm de la MMP-1 chez ces fibroblastes. Conclusions : les résultats de cette étude montrent que, contrairement aux rayons ultraviolets, les IRFA (+LR) ne semblent impliqués ni dans le vieillissement, ni dans la mort cellulaire, même utilisés à des doses très élevées. Ces résultats sont en accord avec certaines investigations in vivo montrant une induction de MMP-1 par des UV et non des infrarouges. Ces dernières études suggèrent d'ailleurs plutôt un rôle protecteur des IRFA (+LR).

Use of quantum dots in aqueous solution to detect blood fingermarks on non-porous surfaces.

A new and original reagent based on the use of highly fluorescent cadmium telluride (CdTe) quantum dots (QDs) in aqueous solution is proposed to detect weak fingermarks in blood on non-porous surfaces. To assess the efficiency of this approach, comparisons were performed with one of the most efficient blood reagents on non-porous surfaces, Acid Yellow 7 (AY7). To this end, four non-porous surfaces were studied, i.e. glass, transparent polypropylene, black polyethylene, and aluminium foil. To evaluate the sensitivity of both reagents, sets of depleted fingermarks were prepared, using the same finger, initially soaked with blood, which was then successively applied on the same surface without recharging it with blood or latent secretions. The successive marks were then cut in halves and the halves treated separately with each reagent. The results showed that QDs were equally efficient to AY7 on glass, polyethylene and polypropylene surfaces, and were superior to AY7 on aluminium. The use of QDs in new, sensitive and highly efficient latent and blood mark detection techniques appears highly promising. Health and safety issues related to the use of cadmium are also discussed. It is suggested that applying QDs in aqueous solution (and not as a dry dusting powder) considerably lowers the toxicity risks.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Exposure models in Switzerland: an overview of the present situation

A survey was undertaken among Swiss occupational health and safety specialists in 2004 to identify uses, difficulties, and possible developments of exposure models. Occupational hygienists (121), occupational physicians (169), and safety specialists (95) were surveyed with an in depth questionnaire. Results obtained indicate that models are not used very much in practice in Switzerland and are reserved to research groups focusing on specific topics. However, various determinants of exposure are often considered important by professionals (emission rate, work activity), and in some cases recorded and used (room parameters, operator activity). These parameters cannot be directly included in present models. Nevertheless, more than half of the occupational hygienists think that it is important to develop quantitative exposure models. Looking at research institutions, there is, however, a big interest in the use of models to solve problems which are difficult to address with direct measurements; i. e. retrospective exposure assessment for specific clinical cases and prospective evaluation for new situations or estimation of the effect of selected parameters. In a recent study about cases of acutepulmonary toxicity following water proofing spray exposure, exposure models have been used to reconstruct exposure of a group of patients. Finally, in the context of exposure prediction, it is also important to report about a measurement database existing in Switzerland since 1991. [Authors]

Field trials of low dose Bayluscide on snail hosts of schistosome and selected non-target organisms in sahelian Cameroon

More than 85% of all cases of schistosomiasis in Cameroon occur in the northern sahelian half of the country representing 20% of the population. Several workers have advocated the integrated approach to schistosomiasis control, including snail control, but the death and decay of aquatic organisms, and fish kill that often follows Bayluscide application at the dose of 1g/m³ decrease its acceptability. The present study was designed to assess the effect of lower Bayluscide doses on snail host and non-target fish, frog, the tadpole kill. Bayluscide was applied to study ponds at concentrations of 0, 0.25, 0.5, and 1 g/m³ (ppm). Pre and post application assessment of snails hosts of schistosomes, fish, frog, and tadpole kill were carried out. All 0.25, 0.5, and 1 g/m³ Bayluscide concentrations reduced snail population significantly. Bayluscide concentration of 0.50 g/m³ applied in two rounds of 0.25 g/m³ resulted in high snail mortality and low lethality to fish, frogs, and tadpoles. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of Bayluscide in the control of schistosomiasis following the simplified approach.