Reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable sector in Portugal: Assessing the degree of structural transformation in the Portuguese economy

Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector, we are able to provide a more accurate, clearer picture of the recent structural developments of the Portuguese economy.

Relatório de estágio na Caixa Geral de Depósitos

This report will describe the activities undertaken during my internship at the Personnel Department (DPE-UPE4.1) in Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), Lisbon, between September 22, 2014, and February 28, 2015. I consider that it is important to note from the outset i) that the subject of my training was suggested by my supervisor in the DPE and accepted by me; and ii) that the internship consisted essentially of carrying out research and information gathering into the different social systems that coexist within the bank and the application of each legal system in solving concrete situations of the CGD employees. The research and analysis of information was important not only for my study but for the CGD itself, as it enables the department to have such an important matter, full of specific characteristics, condensed into a single document, i.e. this report. This is a complex reality. The various welfare systems differ according to the contractual agreement linking the employee to the employer at the date when the labour contract is signed, and also the unique/singular characteristics of the CGD. In the early stage I started by trying to understand the financial institution and its organization and role and the department where I worked. So I analyzed the CGD Statutes and the legal measures that crystallized the scheme for its employees and I also researched its domestic and international operations. The first month was devoted to the research and analysis of such legislation to understand the creation of the CGD and its path to date. In the second and third months I studied the legal social systems that are applied to different groups of CGD workers. This period was quite important to identify and understand the differences between those regimes of CGD employees as well as the procedure inherent in each case. I highlighted the non-implementation of “the social protection regime of convergence” to the workers of this institution; the differences regarding the allocation of sickness subsidies paid to workers who belong to Social Security and CGA contributors, as well as the enforcement of internal rules to all the workers when a work-related accident happens.Then I focused on to assessing and examining external legislation and several internal regulations in order to obtain solutions to questions raised and situations involving by the workers, in order to understand how the DPE solves these situations. Over the last three months of internship, after this more theoretical work, I began the analysis of concrete situations involving employees carrying out their duties in Portugal and abroad. Some of these situations had been received by the department before the beginning of my internship and others over this period. When I was “working” in the DPE I analyzed “cases” that had been solved and some others without a final solution because they were still in courts. As for the last ones (new cases) I was able to follow their assessment and sometimes their outcome. Some of them became study cases for me. Over these five months of my internship, several cases were analyzed and discussed by legal experts of DPE in which I could participate. I always worked hard. I know that this action contributed to elucidate me about the treatment of the issues, and allowed me to have a direct contact with some workers and be part of a dynamic work team. For these reasons, my internship report is not merely descriptive of activities. It consists of an analysis of rules (legislation) and a regulatory framework of activities and it is also a description of several specific situations solved or in a solution process. Through this work I intend to make known the particular reality of a modern Portuguese financial institution not only because of its importance in our country but also such a large number of employees work here (in Portugal and abroad). I should add that throughout my internship I was allowed to attend conferences, within the scope of the bank in order to get a broader view of some issues related to the daily life of the DPE and the CGD. So, I participated in I Jornadas Bancárias and the Conferência Internacional do Contrato a Termo, given that the CGD is a bank and the DPE deals with legal and labour relations.

CTT, the mail going public

The main purpose of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s privatisation process, a previously Government-owned firm, which went public in 2013, under the terms of the adjustment program agreed between Portugal, the European institutions (ECB and European Commission) and the IMF. The emphasis will be placed on the IPO process, but also on the company itself (its history, current situation and prospects for its new phase, as a publicly listed company). This piece of work aims to evaluate the different alternatives for the privatisation of the company along with the respective implications, as well as the outcome of the actual decision taken by the Portuguese Government. One key aspect of the case is also to understand the importance that the privatisation of the Royal Mail, which can be seen as a peer of the Portuguese company, in the unfolding of the process and in the choice of the privatisation model. The case intends to show how the British process influenced the subsequent option of the Portuguese entities to sell CTT through an IPO, instead of a trade sale. All in all, the overall objective of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s successful sale process, which created the first Portuguese company with 100% free-float. 3 On the last days of November 2013, Steven Bernstein was staring at the window of his office overlooking downtown Manhattan, not even noticing the intense rain that was pouring down. As senior manager at ABC Fund, a pension fund responsible for managing more than 800 million dollars, his thoughts were focused on a very important decision that ABC Fund would have to make in just a matter of days. The American pension fund was considering whether or not to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering of CTT- Correios de Portugal, the Government-owned Portuguese mail company. Is this investment opportunity in accordance with the risk profile of a pension fund? Is it a wise decision to acquire shares in a Portuguese company when the country is at the centre of the European Sovereign debt crisis, going through a very demanding economic adjustment program imposed by its bail-out creditors? Would the creation of Portugal's Postal Bank make CTT a sure bet today when its price does not fully reflect the future benefits from entering financial services? Those were some of the questions that were constantly in Mr. Bernstein’s mind over the last couple of days and he was struggling to find the answers…

Improving Millennium Bank's personal finance manager

Double Degree

Enhanced resistive switching and multilevel behavior in bilayered HfAlO/HfAlOx structures for non-volatile memory applications

In this work, hafnium aluminum oxide (HfAlO) thin films were deposited by ion beam sputtering deposition technique on Si substrate. The presence of oxygen vacancies in the HfAlOx layer deposited in oxygen deficient environment is evidenced from the photoluminescence spectra. Furthermore, HfAlO(oxygen rich)/HfAlOx(oxygen poor) bilayer structures exhibit multilevel resistive switching (RS), and the switching ratio becomes more prominent with increasing the HfAlO layer thickness. The bilayer structure with HfAlO/HfAlOx thickness of 30/40 nm displays the enhanced multilevel resistive switching characteristics, where the high resistance state/ intermediate resistance state (IRS) and IRS/low resistance state resistance ratios are 102 and 5 105 , respectively. The switching mechanisms in the bilayer structures were investigated by the temperature dependence of the three resistance states. This study revealed that the multilevel RS is attributed to the coupling of ionic conduction and the metallic conduction, being the first associated to the formation and rupture of conductive filaments related to oxygen vacancies and the second with the formation of a metallic filament. Moreover, the bilayer structures exhibit good endurance and stability in time.

Factors associated with the donation and non-donation of embryos for research: a systematic review

Background: Systematic knowledge on the factors that influence the decisions of IVF users regarding embryo donation for research is a core need for patient-centred policies and ethics in clinical practice. However, no systematic review has been provided on the motivations of patients who must decide embryo disposition. This paper fills this gap, presenting a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative studies, which synthesizes the current body of knowledge on the factors and reasons associated with IVF patients’ decisions to donate or not to donate embryos for research. Methods: A systematic search of studies indexed in PubMed, ISIWoK and PsycINFO, published before November 2013, was conducted. Only empirical, peer-reviewed, full-length, original studies reporting data on factors and reasons associated with the decision concerning donation or non-donation of embryos for research were included. Eligibility and data extraction were performed by two independent researchers and disagreements were resolved by discussion or a third reviewer, if required. The main quantitative findings were extracted and synthesized and qualitative data were assessed by thematic content analysis. Results: A total of 39 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. More than half of the studies (n ¼ 21) used a quantitative methodology, and the remaining were qualitative (n ¼ 15) or mixed-methods (n ¼ 3) studies. The studies were derived mainly from European countries (n ¼ 18) and the USA(n ¼ 11). The proportion of IVF users who donated embryos for research varied from 7% in a study in France to 73% in a Swiss study. Those who donate embryos for research reported feelings of reciprocity towards science and medicine, positive views of research and high levels of trust in the medical system. They described their decision as better than the destruction of embryos and as an opportunity to help others or to improve health and IVF treatments. The perception of risks, the lack of information concerning research projects and the medical system and the conceptualization of embryos in terms of personhood were the most relevant motives for not donating embryos for research. Results relating to the influence of sociodemographic characteristics and reproductive and gynaecological history were mostly inconclusive. Conclusions: Three iterative and dynamic dimensions of the IVF patients’ decision to donate or not to donate embryos for research emerged from this review: the hierarquization of the possible options regarding embryo disposition, according to the moral, social and instrumental status attributed to embryos; patients’ understanding of expectations and risks of the research on human embryos; and patients’ experiences of information exchange and levels of trust in the medical-scientific institutions.

Financial development, labor and market regulations and growth

This paper investigates the importance that market regulation and financial imperfections have on firm growth. We analyse institutions af- fecting labor market as Employment Protection Laws (EP) and Product Market Regulation (PM). We show that together with the beneficial effects of financial development, a firm will get less financing, and thus investless, in a weak financial market (finance effect), the strictness of product and labor market regulations also affect firm growth (labor effect). In particular, we show that the stricter the rules the more detrimental the influence on growth in sectoral value added for a large number of countries. We also show that the labor effect overcomes the positive finance effect.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

Engorgement des centres d'urgences: une raison légitime de refuser l'accès aux patients non urgents [Emergency department overcrowding: a legitimate reason to refuse access to urgent care for non-urgent patients?].

Non-urgent cases represent 30-40% of all ED consults; they contribute to overcrowding of emergency departments (ED), which could be reduced if they were denied emergency care. However, no triage instrument has demonstrated a high enough degree of accuracy to safely rule out serious medical conditions: patients suffering from life-threatening emergencies have been inappropriately denied care. Insurance companies have instituted financial penalties to discourage the use of ED as a source of non-urgent care, but this practice mainly restricts access for the underprivileged. More recent data suggest that in fact most patients consult for appropriate urgent reasons, or have no alternate access to urgent care. The safe reduction of overcrowding requires a reform of the healthcare system based on patients' needs rather than access barriers.

Financial liberalisation and industrial development in Malawi

It has been suggested that financial liberalisation may be a key policy to promote industrialisation as it removes the credit access constraint on firms, especially small and medium ones. We investigate the effect of credit expansion in the wake of liberalisation on the structure of the industrial sectors in Malawi and find that, in contrast to the hypothesis above, it resulted in an increase in industrial concentration and a decrease in net firm entry, especially in sectors that are more finance dependent. The case of Malawi is interesting because financial liberalisation has been justified precisely as a means for industrial development and because the implementation of the policy has been regarded as relatively successful.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of macro-liquidity shocks on the returns of UK stock portfolios sorted on the basis of a series of micro-liquidity measures. The macro-liquidity shocks are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in futures contracts on the 3-month LIBOR during the period June 1999- December 2009. We report definitive evidence that these shocks are transmitted to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with most liquid stocks playing a very active role. Our results emphatically document that the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign during the recent financial crisis; the standard inverse relationship between interest rate surprises and portfolios’ returns before the crisis has turned into positive during the crisis. This finding confirms the inability of interest rate cuts to boost returns in the shortrun during the crisis, because these were perceived by market participants as a signal of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?

When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

Stock Market Liquidity and Macro-Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis

We develop an empirical framework that links micro-liquidity, macro-liquidity and stock prices. We provide evidence of a strong link between macro-liquidity shocks and the returns of UK stock portfolios constructed on the basis of micro-liquidity measures between 1999-2012. Specifically, macro-liquidity shocks, which are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in 3-month LIBOR futures prices, are transmitted in a differential manner to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with liquid stocks playing the most active role. We also find that there is a significant increase in shares’ trading activity and a rather small increase in their trading cost on MPC meeting days. Finally, our results emphatically document that during the recent financial crisis the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign. Interest rate cuts during the crisis were perceived by market participants as a signal of deteriorating economic prospects and reinforced “flight to safety” trading.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.