Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Estramustine and its Derivatives in Potentiating Radiotherapy of Prostate Cancer

The purpose of this study was to deepen our knowledge of the combined use of estramustine and radiotherapy in the treatment of prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is a common disease, with a high variability between subjects in its malignant potential. In many cases, the disease is an incidental finding with little or no clinical significance. In other cases, however, prostate cancer may be an aggressive malignant disease, which, if the initial treatment fails, lacks an effective cure and may lead to severe symptoms, metastasis, and death despite all treatment. In many cases, the methods of treatment available at the moment provide cure or significant regression of symptoms, but often at the cost of considerable side effects. Estramustine, a cytostatic drug used for treating advanced cancer of the prostate, has been shown to inhibit prostate cancer progression and also to increase the sensitivity of cancer cells to radiotherapy. The goals of this study were, first, to find out whether it is possible to use either estramustine or an antibody against estramustine binding protein as carrier molecules for bringing therapeutic radioisotopes into prostate cancer cells, and, secondly, to gain more understanding of the mechanisms behind the known radiosensitising effect of estramustine. Estramustine and estramustine binding protein antibody were labelled with iodine-125 to study the biodistribution of these substances in mice. In the first experiment, both of the substances accumulated in the prostate, but radioiodinated estramustine also showed affinity to the liver and the lungs. Since the radiolabelled antibody was found out to accumulate more selectively to the prostate, we studied its biodistribution in nude mice with DU-145 human prostate cancer implants. In this experiment, the prostate and the tumour accumulated more radioactivity than other organs, but we concluded that the difference in the dose of radiation compared to other organs was not sufficient for the radioiodinated antibody to be advocated as a carrier molecule for treating prostate cancer. Mice with similar DU-145 prostate cancer implants were then treated with estramustine and external beam irradiation, with and without neoadjuvant estramustine treatment. The tumours responded to the treatment as expected, showing the radiation potentiating effect of estramustine. In the third experiment, this effect was found without an increase in the amount of apoptosis in the tumour cells, despite previous suggestions to the contrary. In the fourth experiment, we gave a similar treatment to the mice with DU-145 tumours. A reduction in proliferation was found in the groups treated with radiotherapy, and an increased amount of tumour hypoxia and tumour necrosis in the group treated with both neoadjuvant estramustine and radiation. This finding is contradictory to the suggestion that the radiation sensitising effect of estramustine could be attributed to its angiogenic activity.

Which Narrative? The Case of the Narrative Subject in Fifteenth-Century Altarpieces

The development of the altarpiece towards the end of the late medieval period added a new decorous and conspicuously visual element to the church interior. The altarpiece became the prime location for iconic – i.e. non-narrative – images, but almost from the beginning narrative images were part of the altarpiece in the form of small-scale pictures placed underneath or next to an iconic image in the centre. In the fifteenth century the format of the altarpiece gradually changed, and simultaneously with the development of the unified picture field some new narrative subjects began to appear on the central panel as the main subject of the altarpiece. During the course of the fifteenth century, narrative subjects became increasingly frequent and accepted subjects for altarpieces. In this article I will focus on the problem of the narrative altarpiece, a seeming contradiction of terms. As narrative subjects were transferred from their usual location to the central field of the altarpiece, traditionally reserved for the iconic image, the narrative was included in a new context and expected to assume the function of the altarpiece. How did a narrative image function in this context, and what kind of audience did it serve? Since the questions involved in the issue are complex, I will focus on the biblical narrative of The Visitation as a case study, and use two well-known Florentine altarpieces from the fifteenth century as examples of the interpretative choices open to the viewers of these altarpieces.

The Narrative Turn in the French Novel of the 1970s

The most important French literary movement of the 1950s and 1960s, the nouveau roman, radically questioned the idea of the novel as storytelling, claiming that narratives create a false illusion of the world’s intelligibility. However, in the 1970s storytelling finds its way back into the French novel – a shift that has been characterized as the “return of the narrative”. In my article, I argue that the “narrative turn” in the French novel of the 1970s can be seen as a turn towards a fundamentally hermeneutic view of the narrative mediatedness of our relation to the world. From a hermeneutic perspective, the nouveaux romanciers – insofar as they reject the narrative in order to disclose the discontinuous, fragmentary and chaotic nature of reality – hang onto the positivistic idea that “real” is only that which is independent of human meaning-giving processes. By contrast, the hermeneutists, such as Paul Ricoeur, consider also the human experience of the world to be real, and largely narrative in form. This view is shared by the principal novelists associated with the narrative turn, such as Michel Tournier to whom man is a “mythological animal”. However, after the nouveau roman , narratives have lost their innocence: they no longer appear as “natural” but are conscious of their own narrativity, historicity, and the way they represent only one possible – inevitably ethically and politically charged – perspective into reality. By making storytelling thematic and by telling “counter-stories” that question prevailing models of sense-making, Tournier and other “new storytellers” strive to promote critical reflection on the stories on the basis of which we orient to the world and narrate our lives – both as individuals and as communities.

Invariant-preserving Petri net reduction and conditions for invariant-existence

The use of invariants is an important tool for analysis of distributed and concurrent systems modeled by Petri nets. For a large practical system, the computation of desired invariants by the existing techniques is a time-consuming task. This paper proposes a theoretical foundation for simplified computation of desired invariants. We provide invariant-preserving Petri net reduction rules followed by the conditions for the existence of invariants in various well-structured nets. If an invariant exists, it can be found directly from the net structure using the formulas derived, or by applying the existing techniques on the reduced net.

Marketing and the Logic of Service: Value Facilitation, Value Creation and Co-creation, and Their Marketing Implications

The discussion of a service-dominant logic has made the findings of decades of service marketing research a topic of interest for marketing at large. Some fundamental aspects of the logic such as value creation and its marketing implications are more complex than they have been treated as so far and need to be further developed to serve marketing theory and practice well. Following the analysis in the present article it is argued that although customers are co-producers in service processes, according to the value-in-use notion adopted in the contemporary marketing and management literature they are fundamentally the creators of value for themselves. Furthermore, it is concluded that although by providing goods and services as input resources into customers’ consumption and value-generating processes firms are fundamentally value facilitators, interactions with customers that exist or can be created enable firms to engage themselves with their customers’ processes and thereby they become co-creators of value with their customers. As marketing implications it is observed that 1) the goal of marketing is to support customers’ value creation, 2) following a service logic and due to the existence of interactions where the firm’s and the customer’s processes merge into an integrated joint value creation process, the firm is not restricted to making value propositions only, but can directly and actively influence the customer’s value fulfilment as well and extend its marketing process to include activities during customer-firm interactions, and 3) although all goods and services are consumed as service, customers’ purchasing decisions can be expected to be dependant of whether they have the skills and interest to use a resource, such as a good, as service or want to buy extended market offerings including process-related elements. Finally, the analysis concludes with five service logic theses.

Creep Behaviour of AE42 Magnesium Alloy and Its Composites Using Impression Creep Technique

The creep behaviour of a creep-resistant AE42 magnesium alloy has been examined in the temperature range of 150 to 240 degrees C at the stress levels ranging from 40 to 120 MPa using impression creep technique. A normal creep behaviour, i.e., strain rate decreasing with strain and then reaching a steady state, is observed at all the temperatures and stresses employed The stress exponent varies from 5.1 to 5.7 and the apparent activation energy varies from 130 to 140 kJ/mol, which suggests the high temperature climb of dislocation controlled by lattice self-diffusion being the dominant creep mechanism in the stress and temperature range employed The creep behaviour of the AE42 alloy has also been compared with its composites reinforced with Saffil short fibres and SiC particles in four combinations. All the composites exhibited a lower creep rate than the monolithic AE42 alloy tested at the same temperature and stress levels and the decrease in creep rate was greater in the longitudinal direction than in the transverse direction, as expected. All the hybrid composites, i.e., the composites reinforced with a combination of Saffil short fibres and SiC particles, exhibited creep rates comparable to the composite reinforced with 20% Saffil short fibres alone at all the temperature and stress levels employed, which is beneficial from the commercial point of view.

What Determines Stock Option Contract Design?

This paper analyzes factors driving the design of stock option plans for Finnish firms. We examine determinants of the scope of plans, exercise price, target group, and dividend protection. The scope is found to be negatively related to Tobin’s Q and positively related to proxies for monitoring costs. The scope is also greater in broad-based plans, and in plans with dividend protection. Prior stock return is found to be negatively related to the size of the premium (out-of-the-moneyness), whereas dividend protection increases the premium. The results also suggest that investment intensity, cash flow, and monitoring costs are associated with the likelihood of granting premium (out-of-the-money) stock options. Furthermore, the likelihood of granting broad-based plans is increasing in institutional ownership and cash flow constraints, and decreasing in firm size. Broad-based plans are also more likely among firms in growth industries. We find support that the likelihood of dividend protection is decreasing in foreign ownership. In addition, firms paying zero-dividends are less likely to include dividend protection, whereas higher unsystematic risk is associated with a greater likelihood of including dividend protection.

Does Uncertainty Affect Investment and Labor Demand?

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.

Subject Teacher Training and Teaching in English

The purpose of this Master s thesis is on one hand to find out how CLIL (Content and Language Integrated Learning) teachers and English teachers perceive English and its use in teaching, and on the other hand, what they consider important in subject teacher education in English that is being planned and piloted in STEP Project at the University of Helsinki Department of Teacher Education. One research question is also what kind of language requirements teachers think CLIL teachers should have. The research results are viewed in light of previous research and literature on CLIL education. Six teachers participate in this study. Two of them are English teachers in the comprehensive school, two are class teachers in bilingual elementary education, and two are subject teachers in bilingual education, one of whom teaches in a lower secondary school and the other in an upper secondary school. One English teacher and one bilingual class teacher have graduated from a pilot class teacher program in English that started at the University of Helsinki in the middle of the 1990 s. The bilingual subject teachers are not trained in English but they have learned English elsewhere, which is a particular focus of interest in this study because it is expected that a great number of CLIL teachers in Finland do not have actual studies in English philology. The research method is interview and this is a qualitative case study. The interviews are recorded and transcribed for the ease of analysis. The English teachers do not always use English in their lessons and they would not feel confident in teaching another subject completely in English. All of the CLIL teachers trust their English skills in teaching, but the bilingual class teachers also use Finnish during lessons either because some teaching material is in Finnish, or they feel that rules and instructions are understood better in mother tongue or students English skills are not strong enough. One of the bilingual subject teachers is the only one who consciously uses only English in teaching and in discussions with students. Although teachers good English skills are generally considered important, only the teachers who have graduated from the class teacher education in English consider it important that CLIL teachers would have studies in English philology. Regarding the subject teacher education program in English, the respondents hope that its teachers will have strong enough English skills and that it will deliver what it promises. Having student teachers of different subjects studying together is considered beneficial. The results of the study show that acquiring teaching material in English continues to be the teachers own responsibility and a huge burden for the teachers, and there has, in fact, not been much progress in the matter since the beginning of CLIL education. The bilingual subject teachers think, however, that using one s own material can give new inspiration to teaching and enable the use of various pedagogical methods. Although it is questionable if the language competence requirements set for CLIL teachers by the Finnish Ministry of Education are not adhered to, it becomes apparent in the study that studies in English philology do not necessarily guarantee strong enough language skills for CLIL teaching, but teachers own personality and self-confidence have significance. Keywords: CLIL, bilingual education, English, subject teacher training, subject teacher education in English, STEP

Köyhyyden perintö : Tutkimus kulttuurisen tiedon sisällöistä ja jatkuvuuksista suomalaisissa elämäkerta- ja sananlaskuaineistoissa

The Legacy of Poverty. A Study of the substance and continuity of cultural knowledge in Finnish biographical and proverbial texts The study focuses on the idea of the cultural knowledge and shared understanding that ordinary people, folk , have of the concepts and ideas about rural based poverty in Finland. Throughout 19th century and well into 20th century, the majority of the population remained agrarian and poor. By the 1950s, most people still lived in rural areas and a majority of them earned their living primarily from agriculture and forestry. Urbanization proceeded rapidly from the 1960s onwards. Even though the Nordic welfare state was firmly established in Finland by the 1970s, old forms of agrarian poverty still remained in the culture. The source material for the study consists of 99 biographies and 502 proverbs. Biographical texts include written autobiographies and interviewed biographies. A primary analyzing concept is called a poverty speech. The poverty speech has been analyzed by providing answers to the following three questions: What connotations do people attach to poverty when they speak about it? What sort of social relations arise when people speak about poverty? How is the past experience of poverty constructed in the present and in the welfare state context? Cultural knowledge is a theoretical and analytical tool that enables people to categorize information. The three questions stated above are crucial in revealing the schematic structure that people use to communicate about agrarian poverty. Categories are analyzed and processed in terms of cultural themes that contain the ideals and stereotypes of spoken motif and sub-themes. The application of theoretical and analytical premises to the poverty speech has shown that there are four cultural themes. The first theme is Power. The social connotations in the poverty speech are mostly in relation to the better-off people. Poverty does not exist without an awareness of welfare, i.e. the understanding of a certain standard of welfare above that of one's own. The second theme is about family ties as a resource and welfare network. In poverty speech, marriage is represented as a means to upgrade one's livelihood. Family members are described as supporting one another, but at the same time as being antagonists. The third theme, Work represents the work ethic that is being connected to the poverty. Hard working as a representation is attached to eligibility for `a good life´ that in Finland was to become an owner-occupier of a cottage or a flat. The fourth theme is Security. The resentment of unfair treatment is expressed by using moral superiority and rational explanations. The ruling classes in the agrarian society are portrayed as being evil and selfish with no social conscience because they did not provide enough assistance to those who needed it. During the period when the welfare benefit system was undeveloped, the poor expected the wealthier people to make a contribution to the distribution of material wealth. In the premises of cultural knowledge, both oral and written traditions are about human thinking: they deal with topics, ideas and evaluations that are relevant to their bearers. Many elements expressed in poverty speech, such as classifications and customs derived from the rural world, have been carried over into the next generation in newer contexts and a different cultural environment. Keywords: cultural knowledge, cognitive categorization, poverty, life stories, proverbs

Toiseustarinat : äitinä suomalaisessa yhteiskunnassa

The focus of this study is to analyse the power relations on how our society normalizes motherhood and what kind techniques of power can be found in the motherhood culture. This study is an educational family research, and the aim of this study was to analyse those power frames that try to limit mothers in their motherhoods. There were seven mother participants in this study. They wrote essays about their experiences of motherhood in the Finnish society. The method of the research was qualitative, and the data was analysed by discourse analysis. The theoretical part of the research consists of distinguish in parenthood, family policy in families with children and motherhood in the Finnish society. The methodological approach is Michel Foucault´s analytic of power relations, and in this viewpoint I try to find out the different discourses of motherhood. In this study, mothers process against those assumptions of motherhood, which limit their freedom as acting in their role as mothers. Mothers locate themselves in the position of the Other that differs from those motherhood discourses which mothers were talking about. From the point of the Others , mothers processed their own motherhood, and they feel that they were always distinguished from the motherhood which they were expected to belong. Six categories were found in the motherhood assumptions: the norm of education, the myths of motherhood, the role assumptions in the motherhood, the norm of motherhood and discourse of good parenting, and discourse of project parenting. These discourses of motherhood assumptions make limitations, classifications and difference among motherhood. These assumptions were told by people for example in maternity clinics, first and security houses, judiciary systems, nursery, or by some other people. Mothers in this study made a comparison between the motherhood assumptions and themselves. In this study, mothers also criticize the culture of motherhood in the society and feel incompatible with the norms of motherhood around them. This may also increase mothers exhaustion.

PERFECT Stroke : PERFormance, Effectiveness, and Costs of treatment episodes in Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, incurs significant costs to healthcare systems, and inflicts severe burden to the whole society. Stroke care in Finland has been described in several population-based studies between 1967 and 1998, but not since. In the PERFECT Stroke study presented here, a system for monitoring the Performance, Effectiveness, and Costs of Treatment episodes in Stroke was developed in Finland. Existing nationwide administrative registries were linked at individual patient level with personal identification numbers to depict whole episodes of care, from acute stroke, through rehabilitation, until the patients went home, were admitted to permanent institutional care, or died. For comparisons in time and between providers, patient case-mix was adjusted for. The PERFECT Stroke database includes 104 899 first-ever stroke patients over the years 1999 to 2008, of whom 79% had ischemic stroke (IS), 14% intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). A 18% decrease in the age and sex adjusted incidence of stroke was observed over the study period, 1.8% improvement annually. All-cause 1-year case-fatality rate improved from 28.6% to 24.6%, or 0.5% annually. The expected median lifetime after stroke increased by 2 years for IS patients, to 7 years and 7 months, and by 1 year for ICH patients, to 4 years 5 months. No change could be seen in median SAH patient survival, >10 years. Stroke prevalence was 82 000, 1.5% of total population of Finland, in 2008. Modern stroke center care was shown to be associated with a decrease in both death and risk of institutional care of stroke patients. Number needed to treat to prevent these poor outcomes at one year from stroke was 32 (95% confidence intervals 26 to 42). Despite improvements over the study period, more than a third of Finnish stroke patients did not have access to stroke center care. The mean first-year healthcare cost of a stroke patient was ~20 000 , and among survivors ~10 000 annually thereafter. Only part of this cost was incurred by stroke, as the same patients cost ~5000 over the year prior to stroke. Total lifetime costs after first-ever stroke were ~85 000 . A total of 1.1 Billion , 7% of all healthcare expenditure, is used in the treatment of stroke patients annually. Despite a rapidly aging population, the number of new stroke patients is decreasing, and the patients are more likely to survive. This is explained in part by stroke center care, which is effective, and should be made available for all stroke patients. It is possible, in a suitable setting with high-quality administrative registries and a common identifier, to avoid the huge workload and associated costs of setting up a conventional stroke registry, and still acquire a fairly comprehensive dataset on stroke care and outcome.

Biomassan energia-arvon nostaminen sekundäärilämmöllä kuivaamalla

Viime aikoina ilmastonmuutos, fossiilisten polttoaineiden väheneminen ja niiden hinnan nousu ovat lisänneet merkittävästi maailmanlaajuista kiinnostusta uusiutuviin energiavaroihin. Suomessa uusiutuvien energialähteiden käytössä on jo pitkään panostettu metsäteollisuuden sivutuotevirtana tuottamaan puuperäiseen biomassaan, jota metsäteollisuus käyttää energiantuotantoonsa. Metsäteollisuuden jätevesien käsittelyssä syntyy erilaisia lietteitä, jotka joko uusiokäytetään tai hävitetään polttamalla tai sijoittamalla kaatopaikalle. Erityisesti biolietteiden uusiokäyttö on hankalaa ja kaatopaikkasijoitus tulevaisuudessa mahdotonta tai ainakin kustannuksiltaan kohtuutonta. Käytännössä liete hävitetään polttamalla ja kuivaamalla siitä tulee polttoaine. Lietteiden energiakäyttö on järkevin tapa hävittää jäteliete. Lietteiden korkean vesipitoisuuden vuoksi ne tulee kuitenkin kuivata ennen polttoa. Lietteen kuivaaminen sekundäärienergiavirralla eli metsäteollisuusprosesseissa sivutuotteena muodostuvalla ns. hukkalämmöllä lisää lietteen poltosta saatavaa energiamäärää ja korvaa fossiilisten polttoaineiden käyttöä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää lietteen kuivaukseen optimaalisin kuoren ja lietteen seossuhde eri kuivausparametrejä vaihdellen. Kokeellinen työ aloitettiin rakentamalla energiatekniikan koehalliin laboratoriokokoluokan kiintopetikuivuri, jossa kuivumista tutkittiin puhaltamalla polttoainepedin läpi lämmitettyä ilmaa. Kuivattavina polttoaineina olivat kuoren ja lietteen seos tai pelkkä kuori ja liete erilaisilla massoilla ja erilaisilla prosenttisilla suhteilla ja erilaisissa lämpötiloissa. Kuivumiskäyrien määritys perustui massanmuutokseen. Koelaitteessa olivat anturit lämpötilan mittausta varten, jotta lämpötila saatiin säädettyä ja seurattua kokeen edellyttämällä tavalla. Lämpötilat ja painonmuutokset tallentuivat koetta tehdessä tietokoneelle. Kuivauskokeet osoittivat, että liete-kuori seos kuivuu hyvin kiintopedissä kun lietteen massaosuus seoksessa on korkeintaan 50 %. Lietteen massaosuuden ollessa tätä suurempi kuivaaminen ei enää ole tehokasta, mikä johtuu luultavasti ilman suuresta kanavoitumisesta kuivauspedissä. Kuorta kuivatessa lämpötilan nosto 50 °C:stä 70 °C:een oli huomattavasti tehokkaampaa kuin 70 °C:stä 90 °C:een, ajallisesti ero oli noin kaksinkertainen.