The Role of Recharge and Evapotranspiration as Hydraulic Drivers of Ion Concentrations in Shallow Groundwater on Everglades Tree Islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Improving Novice Analyst Performance in Modeling the Sequence Diagram in Systems Analysis: A Cognitive Complexity Approach

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) has quickly become the industry standard for object-oriented software development. It is being widely used in organizations and institutions around the world. However, UML is often found to be too complex for novice systems analysts. Although prior research has identified difficulties novice analysts encounter in learning UML, no viable solution has been proposed to address these difficulties. Sequence-diagram modeling, in particular, has largely been overlooked. The sequence diagram models the behavioral aspects of an object-oriented software system in terms of interactions among its building blocks, i.e. objects and classes. It is one of the most commonly-used UML diagrams in practice. However, there has been little research on sequence-diagram modeling. The current literature scarcely provides effective guidelines for developing a sequence diagram. Such guidelines will be greatly beneficial to novice analysts who, unlike experienced systems analysts, do not possess relevant prior experience to easily learn how to develop a sequence diagram. There is the need for an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novices. This dissertation reports a research study that identified novice difficulties in modeling a sequence diagram and proposed a technique called CHOP (CHunking, Ordering, Patterning), which was designed to reduce the cognitive load by addressing the cognitive complexity of sequence-diagram modeling. The CHOP technique was evaluated in a controlled experiment against a technique recommended in a well-known textbook, which was found to be representative of approaches provided in many textbooks as well as practitioner literatures. The results indicated that novice analysts were able to perform better using the CHOP technique. This outcome seems have been enabled by pattern-based heuristics provided by the technique. Meanwhile, novice analysts rated the CHOP technique more useful although not significantly easier to use than the control technique. The study established that the CHOP technique is an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novice analysts.

Environmental and biological drivers of feeding and spatial dynamics in the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis

In eastern Canada, the destruction of foundational kelp beds by dense aggregations (fronts) of the omnivorous green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, is a key determinant of the structure and dynamics of shallow reef communities. Current knowledge about factors affecting the ability of S. droebachiensis to exert top-down community control is based largely on observational studies of patterns in natural habitats, yielding fragmentary, and sometimes contradictory, results. The present research incorporated laboratory microcosm experiments and surveys of urchins in natural habitats to test the effects of abiotic (wave action, water temperature) and biotic (body size, population density) factors on: (1) individual and aggregative feeding on the winged kelp, Alaria esculenta; and (2) displacement, microhabitat use, distribution, and aggregation in food-depleted habitats. Wave action, water temperature, and body size strongly affected the ability of urchins to consume kelp: individual feeding increased with increasing body size and temperature, while aggregative feeding decreased with increasing wave action. Yet, feeding in large urchins dropped by two orders of magnitude between 12 and 18°C. Increasing wave action triggered shifts in urchin displacement, microhabitat use, distribution, and aggregation: urchins reduced displacement and abandoned flat surfaces in favour of crevices. They increasingly formed two-dimensional aggregations at densities ≥110 individuals m⁻². Collectively, results provide a foundational understanding of some of the drivers of feeding and spatial dynamics of S. droebachiensis and potential impacts on the formation of grazing fronts.

Seasonal water storage and delayed evapotranspiration across continents: patterns and drivers

Non peer reviewed

Drivers of atmospheric methane uptake by montane forest soils in the southern Peruvian Andes

Acknowledgements. This study is a product of the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group consortium (http://www.andesconservation.org/). The authors would like to acknowledge the agencies that funded this research; the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; joint grant references NE/G018278/1, NE/H006583, NE/H007849 and NE/H006753) and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad; via a sub-contract to Yit Arn Teh managed by the Amazon Conservation Association). Patrick Meir was also supported by an Australian Research Council Fellowship (FT110100457). Javier Eduardo Silva Espejo, Walter Huaraca Huasco and the ABIDA NGO provided critical fieldwork and logistical support. Angus Calder, Michael Mcgibbon, Vicky Munro and Nick Morley provided invaluable laboratory support. Thanks to Adrian Tejedor and the Amazon Conservation Association (http://www.amazonconservation.org/), who provided assistance with access and plot selection at Hacienda Villa Carmen. This publication is a contribution from the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society (http://www.sages.ac.uk). Edited by: E. Veldkamp

Harness race drivers

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Internal Capital, External Knowledge, and Random Draws: Three Drivers of Organizational Structure

This dissertation explores the complex interactions between organizational structure and the environment. In Chapter 1, I investigate the effect of financial development on the formation of European corporate groups. Since cross-country regressions are hard to interpret in a causal sense, we exploit exogenous industry measures to investigate a specific channel through which financial development may affect group affiliation: internal capital markets. Using a comprehensive firm-level dataset on European corporate groups in 15 countries, we find that countries

with less developed financial markets have a higher percentage of group affiliates in more capital intensive industries. This relationship is more pronounced for young and small firms and for affiliates of large and diversified groups. Our findings are consistent with the view that internal capital markets may, under some conditions, be more efficient than prevailing external markets, and that this may drive group affiliation even in developed economies. In Chapter 2, I bridge current streams of innovation research to explore the interplay between R&D, external knowledge, and organizational structure–three elements of a firm’s innovation strategy which we argue should logically be studied together. Using within-firm patent assignment patterns,

we develop a novel measure of structure for a large sample of American firms. We find that centralized firms invest more in research and patent more per R&D dollar than decentralized firms. Both types access technology via mergers and acquisitions, but their acquisitions differ in terms of frequency, size, and i\ntegration. Consistent with our framework, their sources of value creation differ: while centralized firms derive more value from internal R&D, decentralized firms rely more on external knowledge. We discuss how these findings should stimulate more integrative work on theories of innovation. In Chapter 3, I use novel data on 1,265 newly-public firms to show that innovative firms exposed to environments with lower M&A activity just after their initial public offering (IPO) adapt by engaging in fewer technological acquisitions and

more internal research. However, this adaptive response becomes inertial shortly after IPO and persists well into maturity. This study advances our understanding of how the environment shapes heterogeneity and capabilities through its impact on firm structure. I discuss how my results can help bridge inertial versus adaptive perspectives in the study of organizations, by

documenting an instance when the two interact.

Investigating the Intrinsic and Extrinsic Drivers of Primate Heterothermy

Seasonal heterothermy—an orchestrated set of extreme physiological responses—is directly responsible for the over-winter survival of many mammalian groups living in seasonal environments. Historically, it was thought that the use of seasonal heterothermy (i.e. daily torpor and hibernation) was restricted to cold-adapted species; it is now known that such thermoregulatory strategies are used by more species than previously appreciated, including many tropical species. The dwarf and mouse lemurs (family Cheirogaleidae) are among the few primates known to use seasonal heterothermy to avoid Madagascar’s harsh and unpredictable environments. These primates provide an ideal study system for investigating a common mechanism of mammalian seasonal heterothermy. The overarching theme of this dissertation is to understand both the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of heterothermy in three species of the family Cheirogaleidae. By using transcriptome sequencing to characterize gene expression in both captive and natural settings, we identify unique patterns of differential gene expression that are correlated with extreme changes in physiology in two species of dwarf lemurs: C. medius under captive conditions at the Duke Lemur Center and C. crossleyi studied under field conditions in Madagascar. Genes that are differentially expressed appear to be critical for maintaining the health of these animals when they undergo prolonged periods of metabolic depression concurrent with the hibernation phenotype. Further, a comparative analysis of previously studied mammalian heterotherms identifies shared genetic mechanisms underlying the hibernation phenotype across the phylogeny of mammals. Lastly, conducting a diet manipulation study with a captive colony of mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus) at the Duke Lemur Center, we investigated the degree to which dietary effects influence torpor patterns. We find that tropical primate heterotherms may be exempt from the traditional paradigms governing cold-adapted heterothermy, having evolved different dietary strategies to tolerate circadian changes in body temperature.

Drivers of Dengue Within-Host Dynamics and Virulence Evolution

Dengue is an important vector-borne virus that infects on the order of 400 million individuals per year. Infection with one of the virus's four serotypes (denoted DENV-1 to 4) may be silent, result in symptomatic dengue 'breakbone' fever, or develop into the more severe dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Extensive research has therefore focused on identifying factors that influence dengue infection outcomes. It has been well-documented through epidemiological studies that DHF is most likely to result from a secondary heterologous infection, and that individuals experiencing a DENV-2 or DENV-3 infection typically are more likely to present with more severe dengue disease than those individuals experiencing a DENV-1 or DENV-4 infection. However, a mechanistic understanding of how these risk factors affect disease outcomes, and further, how the virus's ability to evolve these mechanisms will affect disease severity patterns over time, is lacking. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I formulate mechanistic mathematical models of primary and secondary dengue infections that describe how the dengue virus interacts with the immune response and the results of this interaction on the risk of developing severe dengue disease. I show that only the innate immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a primary infection whereas the adaptive immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. I then add to these models a quantitative measure of disease severity that assumes immunopathology, and analyze the effectiveness of virological indicators of disease severity. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I then statistically fit these mathematical models to viral load data of dengue patients to understand the mechanisms that drive variation in viral load. I specifically consider the roles that immune status, clinical disease manifestation, and serotype may play in explaining viral load variation observed across the patients. With this analysis, I show that there is statistical support for the theory of antibody dependent enhancement in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections and that there is statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of DENV-2 and DENV-3 exceeding those of DENV-1. In the fourth chapter of my dissertation, I integrate these within-host models with a vector-borne epidemiological model to understand the potential for virulence evolution in dengue. Critically, I show that dengue is expected to evolve towards intermediate virulence, and that the optimal virulence of the virus depends strongly on the number of serotypes that co-circulate. Together, these dissertation chapters show that dengue viral load dynamics provide insight into the within-host mechanisms driving differences in dengue disease patterns and that these mechanisms have important implications for dengue virulence evolution.

Characterizing Genetic Drivers of Lymphoma through High-Throughput Sequencing

The advent of next-generation sequencing, now nearing a decade in age, has enabled, among other capabilities, measurement of genome-wide sequence features at unprecedented scale and resolution.

In this dissertation, I describe work to understand the genetic underpinnings of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma through exploration of the epigenetics of its cell of origin, initial characterization and interpretation of driver mutations, and finally, a larger-scale, population-level study that incorporates mutation interpretation with clinical outcome.

In the first research chapter, I describe genomic characteristics of lymphomas through the lens of their cells of origin. Just as many other cancers, such as breast cancer or lung cancer, are categorized based on their cell of origin, lymphoma subtypes can be examined through the context of their normal B Cells of origin, Naïve, Germinal Center, and post-Germinal Center. By applying integrative analysis of the epigenetics of normal B Cells of origin through chromatin-immunoprecipitation sequencing, we find that differences in normal B Cell subtypes are reflected in the mutational landscapes of the cancers that arise from them, namely Mantle Cell, Burkitt, and Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

In the next research chapter, I describe our first endeavor into understanding the genetic heterogeneity of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma, the most common form of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, which affects 100,000 patients in the world. Through whole-genome sequencing of 1 case as well as whole-exome sequencing of 94 cases, we characterize the most recurrent genetic features of DLBCL and lay the groundwork for a larger study.

In the last research chapter, I describe work to characterize and interpret the whole exomes of 1001 cases of DLBCL in the largest single-cancer study to date. This highly-powered study enabled sub-gene, gene-level, and gene-network level understanding of driver mutations within DLBCL. Moreover, matched genomic and clinical data enabled the connection of these driver mutations to clinical features such as treatment response or overall survival. As sequencing costs continue to drop, whole-exome sequencing will become a routine clinical assay, and another diagnostic dimension in addition to existing methods such as histology. However, to unlock the full utility of sequencing data, we must be able to interpret it. This study undertakes a first step in developing the understanding necessary to uncover the genomic signals of DLBCL hidden within its exomes. However, beyond the scope of this one disease, the experimental and analytical methods can be readily applied to other cancer sequencing studies.

Thus, this dissertation leverages next-generation sequencing analysis to understand the genetic underpinnings of lymphoma, both by examining its normal cells of origin as well as through a large-scale study to sensitively identify recurrently mutated genes and their relationship to clinical outcome.

Status, trends and drivers of kelp forests in Europe: an expert assessment

A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.

Status, trends and drivers of kelp forests in Europe: an expert assessment

A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.