A covariate adjustment for zero-truncated approaches to estimating the size of hidden and elusive populations

In this paper we consider the estimation of population size from onesource capture–recapture data, that is, a list in which individuals can potentially be found repeatedly and where the question is how many individuals are missed by the list. As a typical example, we provide data from a drug user study in Bangkok from 2001 where the list consists of drug users who repeatedly contact treatment institutions. Drug users with 1, 2, 3, . . . contacts occur, but drug users with zero contacts are not present, requiring the size of this group to be estimated. Statistically, these data can be considered as stemming from a zero-truncated count distribution.We revisit an estimator for the population size suggested by Zelterman that is known to be robust under potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a locally truncated Poisson likelihood which is equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This result allows the extension of the Zelterman estimator by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates. We also review an estimator proposed by Chao and explain why we are not able to obtain similar results for this estimator. The Zelterman estimator is applied in two case studies, the first a drug user study from Bangkok, the second an illegal immigrant study in the Netherlands. Our results suggest the new estimator should be used, in particular, if substantial unobserved heterogeneity is present.

Sequence analysis of the cupin gene family in Synechocystis PCC6803

The recently described cupin superfamily of proteins includes the germin and germinlike proteins, of which the cereal oxalate oxidase is the best characterized. This superfamily also includes seed storage proteins, in addition to several microbial enzymes and proteins with unknown function. All these proteins are characterized by the conservation of two central motifs, usually containing two or three histidine residues presumed to be involved with metal binding in the catalytic active site. The present study on the coding regions of Synechocystis PCC6803 identifies a previously unknown group of 12 related cupins, each containing the characteristic two-motif signature. This group comprises 11 single-domain proteins, ranging in length from 104 to 289 residues, and includes two phosphomannose isomerases and two epimerases involved in cell wall synthesis, a member of the pirin group of nuclear proteins, a possible transcriptional regulator, and a close relative-of a cytochrome c551 from Rhodococcus. Additionally, there is a duplicated, two-domain protein that has close similarity to an oxalate decarboxylase from the fungus Collybia velutipes and that is a putative progenitor of the storage proteins of land plants.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elusive relationships within order fabales: phylogenetic analyses using matK and rbcL sequence data

The order Fabales, including Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, Quillajaceae and Surianaceae, represents a novel hypothesis emerging from angiosperm molecular phylogenies. Despite good support for the order, molecular studies to date have suggested contradictory, poorly supported interfamilial relationships. Our reappraisal of relationships within Fabales addresses past taxon sampling deficiencies, and employs parsimony and Bayesian approaches using sequences from the plastid regions rbcL (166 spp.) and matK (78 spp.). Five alternative hypotheses for interfamilial relationships within Fabales were recovered. The Shimodaira-Hasegawa test found the likelihood of a resolved topology significantly higher than the one calculated for a polytomy, but did not favour any of the alternative hypotheses of relationship within Fabales. In the light of the morphological evidence available and the comparative behavior of rbcL and matK, the topology recovering Polygalaceae as sister to the rest of the order Fabales with Leguminosae more closely related to Quillajaceae + Surianaceae, is considered the most likely hypothesis of interfamilial relationships of the order. Dating of selected crown clades in the Fabales phylogeny using penalized likelihood suggests rapid radiation of the Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, and (Quillajaceae + Surianaceae) crown clades.

Extending Zelterman’s approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered data

Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Simple sequence repeats reveal uneven distribution of genetic diversity in chloroplast genomes of Brassica oleracea L. and (n=9) wild relatives

Diversity in the chloroplast genome of 171 accessions representing the Brassica 'C' (n = 9) genome, including domesticated and wild B. oleracea and nine inter-fertile related wild species, was investigated using six chloroplast SSR (microsatellite) markers. The lack of diversity detected among 105 cultivated and wild accessions of B. oleracea contrasted starkly with that found within its wild relatives. The vast majority of B. oleracea accessions shared a single haplotype, whereas as many as six haplotypes were detected in two wild species, B. villosa Biv. and B. cretica Lam.. The SSRs proved to be highly polymorphic across haplotypes, with calculated genetic diversity values (H) of 0.23-0.87. In total, 23 different haplotypes were detected in C genome species, with an additional five haplotypes detected in B. rapa L. (A genome n = 10) and another in B. nigra L. (B genome, n = 8). The low chloroplast diversity of B. oleracea is not suggestive of multiple domestication events. The predominant B. oleracea haplotype was also common in B. incana Ten. and present in low frequencies in B. villosa, B. macrocarpa Guss, B. rupestris Raf. and B. cretica. The chloroplast SSRs reveal a wealth of diversity within wild Brassica species that will facilitate further evolutionary and phylogeographic studies of this important crop genus.

Vertical distribution, size and composition of the weed seedbank under various tillage and herbicide treatments in a sequence of industrial crops

Investigations were conducted during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 growing seasons in northern Greece to evaluate effects of tillage regime (mouldboard plough, chisel plough and rotary tiller), cropping sequence (continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatment on weed seedbank dynamics. Amaranthus spp. and Portulaca oleracea were the most abundant species, ranging from 76% to 89% of total weed seeds found in 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil depths during the 3 years. With the mouldboard plough, 48% and 52% of the weed seedbank was found in the 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil horizons, while approximately 60% was concentrated in the upper 15 cm soil horizon for chisel plough and rotary tillage. Mouldboard ploughing significantly buried more Echinochloa crus-galli seeds in the 15-30 cm soil horizon compared with the other tillage regimes. Total seedbank (0-30 cm) of P. oleracea was significantly reduced in cotton-sugar beet rotation compared with cotton and tobacco monocultures, while the opposite occurred for E. crus-galli. Total seed densities of most annual broad-leaved weed species (Amaranthus spp., P. oleracea, Solanum nigrum) and E. crus-galli were lower in herbicide treated than in untreated plots. The results suggest that in light textured soils, conventional tillage with herbicide use gradually reduces seed density of small seeded weed species in the top 15 cm over several years. In contrast, crop rotation with the early established sugar beet favours spring-germinating grass weed species, but also prevents establishment of summer-germinating weed species by the early developing crop canopy.

A phylogenetic reappraisal of the Peltophorum group (Caesalpinieae: Leguminosae) based on the chloroplast trnL-F, rbcL and rps16 sequence data

The monophyly of the Peltophorum group, one of nine informal groups recognized by Polhill in the Caesalpinieae, was tested using sequence data from the trnL-F, rbcL, and rps16 regions of the chloroplast genome. Exemplars were included from all 16 genera of the Peltophorum group, and from 15 genera representing seven of the other eight informal groups in the tribe. The data were analyzed separately and in combined analyses using parsimony and Bayesian methods. The analysis method had little effect on the topology of well-supported relationships. The molecular data recovered a generally well-supported phylogeny with many intergeneric relationships resolved. Results show that the Peltophorum group as currently delimited is polyphyletic, but that eight genera plus one undescribed genus form a core Peltophorum group, which is referred to here as the Peltophorum group sensu stricto. These genera are Bussea, Conzattia, Colvillea, Delonix, Heteroflorum (inedit.), Lemuropisum, Parkinsonia, Peltophorum, and Schizolobium. The remaining eight genera of the Peltophorum group s.l. are distributed across the Caesalpinieae. Morphological support for the redelimited Peltophorum group and the other recovered clades was assessed, and no unique synapomorphy was found for the Peltophorum group s.s. A proposal for the reclassification of the Peltophorum group s.l. is presented.

A phylogenetic mixture model for detecting pattern-heterogeneity in gene sequence or character-state data

We describe a general likelihood-based 'mixture model' for inferring phylogenetic trees from gene-sequence or other character-state data. The model accommodates cases in which different sites in the alignment evolve in qualitatively distinct ways, but does not require prior knowledge of these patterns or partitioning of the data. We call this qualitative variability in the pattern of evolution across sites "pattern-heterogeneity" to distinguish it from both a homogenous process of evolution and from one characterized principally by differences in rates of evolution. We present studies to show that the model correctly retrieves the signals of pattern-heterogeneity from simulated gene-sequence data, and we apply the method to protein-coding genes and to a ribosomal 12S data set. The mixture model outperforms conventional partitioning in both these data sets. We implement the mixture model such that it can simultaneously detect rate- and pattern-heterogeneity. The model simplifies to a homogeneous model or a rate- variability model as special cases, and therefore always performs at least as well as these two approaches, and often considerably improves upon them. We make the model available within a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo framework for phylogenetic inference, as an easy-to-use computer program.

Analysis of the antigen combining site: Correlations between length and sequence composition of the hypervariable loops and the nature of the antigen

It has long been suggested that the overall shape of the antigen combining site (ACS) of antibodies is correlated with the nature of the antigen. For example, deep pockets are characteristic of antibodies that bind haptens, grooves indicate peptide binders, while antibodies that bind to proteins have relatively flat combining sites. In. 1996, MacCallum, Martin and Thornton used a fractal shape descriptor and showed a strong correlation of the shape of the binding region with the general nature of the antigen. However, the shape of the ACS is determined primarily by the lengths of the six complementarity-determining regions (CDRs). Here, we make a direct correlation between the lengths of the CDRs and the nature of the antigen. In addition, we show significant differences in the residue composition of the CDRs of antibodies that bind to different antigen classes. As well as helping us to understand the process of antigen recognition, autoimmune disease and cross-reactivity these results are of direct application in the design of antibody phage libraries and modification of affinity. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.

Inter-simple sequence repeat and aggressiveness analyses revealed high genetic diversity, recombination and long-range dispersal in Fusarium culmorum

Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) analysis and aggressiveness assays were used to investigate genetic variability within a global collection of Fusarium culmorum isolates. A set of four ISSR primers were tested, of which three primers amplified a total of 37 bands out of which 30 (81%) were polymorphic. The intraspecific diversity was high, ranging from four to 28 different ISSR genotypes for F. culmorum depending on the primer. The combined analysis of ISSR data revealed 59 different genotypes clustered into seven distinct clades amongst 75 isolates of F. culmorum examined. All the isolates were assayed to test their aggressiveness on a winter wheat cv. 'Armada'. A significant quantitative variation for aggressiveness was found among the isolates. The ISSR and aggressiveness variation existed on a macro- as well as micro-geographical scale. The data suggested a long-range dispersal of F. culmorum and indicated that this fungus may have been introduced into Canada from Europe. In addition to the high level of intraspecific diversity observed in F. culmorum, the index of multilocus association calculated using ISSR data indicated that reproduction in F. culmorum cannot be exclusively clonal and recombination is likely to occur.

Population subdivision and molecular sequence variation: Theory and analysis of Drosophila ananassae data

Population subdivision complicates analysis of molecular variation. Even if neutrality is assumed, three evolutionary forces need to be considered: migration, mutation, and drift. Simplification can be achieved by assuming that the process of migration among and drift within subpopulations is occurring fast compared to Mutation and drift in the entire population. This allows a two-step approach in the analysis: (i) analysis of population subdivision and (ii) analysis of molecular variation in the migrant pool. We model population subdivision using an infinite island model, where we allow the migration/drift parameter Theta to vary among populations. Thus, central and peripheral populations can be differentiated. For inference of Theta, we use a coalescence approach, implemented via a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration method that allows estimation of allele frequencies in the migrant pool. The second step of this approach (analysis of molecular variation in the migrant pool) uses the estimated allele frequencies in the migrant pool for the study of molecular variation. We apply this method to a Drosophila ananassae sequence data set. We find little indication of isolation by distance, but large differences in the migration parameter among populations. The population as a whole seems to be expanding. A population from Bogor (Java, Indonesia) shows the highest variation and seems closest to the species center.

Recognition of polyimide sequence information by a molecular tweezer

Specific monomer sequences in aromatic copolyimides are recognized through their -stacking and hydrogen-bonding interactions with a sterically and electronically complementary molecular tweezer. These interactions enable the tweezer molecule to read monomer sequences comprising up to 27 aromatic rings by multiple adjacent binding to neighboring sites on the polymer chain.