Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

Learning real-world stimuli in a neural network with spike-driven synaptic dynamics

We present a model of spike-driven synaptic plasticity inspired by experimental observations and motivated by the desire to build an electronic hardware device that can learn to classify complex stimuli in a semisupervised fashion. During training, patterns of activity are sequentially imposed on the input neurons, and an additional instructor signal drives the output neurons toward the desired activity. The network is made of integrate-and-fire neurons with constant leak and a floor. The synapses are bistable, and they are modified by the arrival of presynaptic spikes. The sign of the change is determined by both the depolarization and the state of a variable that integrates the postsynaptic action potentials. Following the training phase, the instructor signal is removed, and the output neurons are driven purely by the activity of the input neurons weighted by the plastic synapses. In the absence of stimulation, the synapses preserve their internal state indefinitely. Memories are also very robust to the disruptive action of spontaneous activity. A network of 2000 input neurons is shown to be able to classify correctly a large number (thousands) of highly overlapping patterns (300 classes of preprocessed Latex characters, 30 patterns per class, and a subset of the NIST characters data set) and to generalize with performances that are better than or comparable to those of artificial neural networks. Finally we show that the synaptic dynamics is compatible with many of the experimental observations on the induction of long-term modifications (spike-timing-dependent plasticity and its dependence on both the postsynaptic depolarization and the frequency of pre- and postsynaptic neurons).

Dendritic cells and macrophages form a transepithelial network against foreign particulate antigens

Fine particles (0.1-2.5 microm in diameter) may cause increased pulmonary morbidity and mortality. We demonstrate with a cell culture model of the human epithelial airway wall that dendritic cells extend processes between epithelial cells through the tight junctions to collect particles in the "luminal space" and to transport them through cytoplasmic processes between epithelial cells across the epithelium or to transmigrate through the epithelium to take up particles on the epithelial surface. Furthermore, dendritic cells interacted with particle-loaded macrophages on top of the epithelium and with other dendritic cells within or beneath the epithelium to take over particles. By comparing the cellular interplay of dendritic cells and macrophages across epithelial monolayers of different transepithelial electrical resistance, we found that more dendritic cells were involved in particle uptake in A549 cultures showing a low transepithelial electrical resistance compared with dendritic cells in16HBE14o cultures showing a high transepithelial electrical resistance 10 min (23.9% versus 9.5%) and 4 h (42.1% versus 14.6%) after particle exposition. In contrast, the macrophages in A549 co-cultures showed a significantly lower involvement in particle uptake compared with 16HBE14o co-cultures 10 min (12.8% versus 42.8%) and 4 h (57.4% versus 82.7%) after particle exposition. Hence we postulate that the epithelial integrity influences the particle uptake by dendritic cells, and that these two cell types collaborate as sentinels against foreign particulate antigen by building a transepithelial interacting cellular network.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

Computational fluids domain reduction to a simplified fluid network

The primary goal of this project is to demonstrate the practical use of data mining algorithms to cluster a solved steady-state computational fluids simulation (CFD) flow domain into a simplified lumped-parameter network. A commercial-quality code, “cfdMine” was created using a volume-weighted k-means clustering that that can accomplish the clustering of a 20 million cell CFD domain on a single CPU in several hours or less. Additionally agglomeration and k-means Mahalanobis were added as optional post-processing steps to further enhance the separation of the clusters. The resultant nodal network is considered a reduced-order model and can be solved transiently at a very minimal computational cost. The reduced order network is then instantiated in the commercial thermal solver MuSES to perform transient conjugate heat transfer using convection predicted using a lumped network (based on steady-state CFD). When inserting the lumped nodal network into a MuSES model, the potential for developing a “localized heat transfer coefficient” is shown to be an improvement over existing techniques. Also, it was found that the use of the clustering created a new flow visualization technique. Finally, fixing clusters near equipment newly demonstrates a capability to track temperatures near specific objects (such as equipment in vehicles).

IDENTIFICATION OF GENES CONTROLLING BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS THROUGH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION

The developmental processes and functions of an organism are controlled by the genes and the proteins that are derived from these genes. The identification of key genes and the reconstruction of gene networks can provide a model to help us understand the regulatory mechanisms for the initiation and progression of biological processes or functional abnormalities (e.g. diseases) in living organisms. In this dissertation, I have developed statistical methods to identify the genes and transcription factors (TFs) involved in biological processes, constructed their regulatory networks, and also evaluated some existing association methods to find robust methods for coexpression analyses. Two kinds of data sets were used for this work: genotype data and gene expression microarray data. On the basis of these data sets, this dissertation has two major parts, together forming six chapters. The first part deals with developing association methods for rare variants using genotype data (chapter 4 and 5). The second part deals with developing and/or evaluating statistical methods to identify genes and TFs involved in biological processes, and construction of their regulatory networks using gene expression data (chapter 2, 3, and 6). For the first part, I have developed two methods to find the groupwise association of rare variants with given diseases or traits. The first method is based on kernel machine learning and can be applied to both quantitative as well as qualitative traits. Simulation results showed that the proposed method has improved power over the existing weighted sum method (WS) in most settings. The second method uses multiple phenotypes to select a few top significant genes. It then finds the association of each gene with each phenotype while controlling the population stratification by adjusting the data for ancestry using principal components. This method was applied to GAW 17 data and was able to find several disease risk genes. For the second part, I have worked on three problems. First problem involved evaluation of eight gene association methods. A very comprehensive comparison of these methods with further analysis clearly demonstrates the distinct and common performance of these eight gene association methods. For the second problem, an algorithm named the bottom-up graphical Gaussian model was developed to identify the TFs that regulate pathway genes and reconstruct their hierarchical regulatory networks. This algorithm has produced very significant results and it is the first report to produce such hierarchical networks for these pathways. The third problem dealt with developing another algorithm called the top-down graphical Gaussian model that identifies the network governed by a specific TF. The network produced by the algorithm is proven to be of very high accuracy.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

A FIREWALL MODEL OF FILE SYSTEM SECURITY

File system security is fundamental to the security of UNIX and Linux systems since in these systems almost everything is in the form of a file. To protect the system files and other sensitive user files from unauthorized accesses, certain security schemes are chosen and used by different organizations in their computer systems. A file system security model provides a formal description of a protection system. Each security model is associated with specified security policies which focus on one or more of the security principles: confidentiality, integrity and availability. The security policy is not only about “who” can access an object, but also about “how” a subject can access an object. To enforce the security policies, each access request is checked against the specified policies to decide whether it is allowed or rejected. The current protection schemes in UNIX/Linux systems focus on the access control. Besides the basic access control scheme of the system itself, which includes permission bits, setuid and seteuid mechanism and the root, there are other protection models, such as Capabilities, Domain Type Enforcement (DTE) and Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), supported and used in certain organizations. These models protect the confidentiality of the data directly. The integrity of the data is protected indirectly by only allowing trusted users to operate on the objects. The access control decisions of these models depend on either the identity of the user or the attributes of the process the user can execute, and the attributes of the objects. Adoption of these sophisticated models has been slow; this is likely due to the enormous complexity of specifying controls over a large file system and the need for system administrators to learn a new paradigm for file protection. We propose a new security model: file system firewall. It is an adoption of the familiar network firewall protection model, used to control the data that flows between networked computers, toward file system protection. This model can support decisions of access control based on any system generated attributes about the access requests, e.g., time of day. The access control decisions are not on one entity, such as the account in traditional discretionary access control or the domain name in DTE. In file system firewall, the access decisions are made upon situations on multiple entities. A situation is programmable with predicates on the attributes of subject, object and the system. File system firewall specifies the appropriate actions on these situations. We implemented the prototype of file system firewall on SUSE Linux. Preliminary results of performance tests on the prototype indicate that the runtime overhead is acceptable. We compared file system firewall with TE in SELinux to show that firewall model can accommodate many other access control models. Finally, we show the ease of use of firewall model. When firewall system is restricted to specified part of the system, all the other resources are not affected. This enables a relatively smooth adoption. This fact and that it is a familiar model to system administrators will facilitate adoption and correct use. The user study we conducted on traditional UNIX access control, SELinux and file system firewall confirmed that. The beginner users found it easier to use and faster to learn then traditional UNIX access control scheme and SELinux.

Learning flexible sensori-motor mappings in a complex network

Given the complex structure of the brain, how can synaptic plasticity explain the learning and forgetting of associations when these are continuously changing? We address this question by studying different reinforcement learning rules in a multilayer network in order to reproduce monkey behavior in a visuomotor association task. Our model can only reproduce the learning performance of the monkey if the synaptic modifications depend on the pre- and postsynaptic activity, and if the intrinsic level of stochasticity is low. This favored learning rule is based on reward modulated Hebbian synaptic plasticity and shows the interesting feature that the learning performance does not substantially degrade when adding layers to the network, even for a complex problem.

An insulin infusion advisory system for type 1 diabetes patients based on non-linear model predictive control methods

In this paper, an Insulin Infusion Advisory System (IIAS) for Type 1 diabetes patients, which use insulin pumps for the Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII) is presented. The purpose of the system is to estimate the appropriate insulin infusion rates. The system is based on a Non-Linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) which uses a hybrid model. The model comprises a Compartmental Model (CM), which simulates the absorption of the glucose to the blood due to meal intakes, and a Neural Network (NN), which simulates the glucose-insulin kinetics. The NN is a Recurrent NN (RNN) trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The output of the model consists of short term glucose predictions and provides input to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. For the development and the evaluation of the IIAS, data generated from a Mathematical Model (MM) of a Type 1 diabetes patient have been used. The proposed control strategy is evaluated at multiple meal disturbances, various noise levels and additional time delays. The results indicate that the implemented IIAS is capable of handling multiple meals, which correspond to realistic meal profiles, large noise levels and time delays.

Calibrating Wireless Sensor Network Simulation Models with Real-World Experiments

This paper studies the energy-efficiency and service characteristics of a recently developed energy-efficient MAC protocol for wireless sensor networks in simulation and on a real sensor hardware testbed. This opportunity is seized to illustrate how simulation models can be verified by cross-comparing simulation results with real-world experiment results. The paper demonstrates that by careful calibration of simulation model parameters, the inevitable gap between simulation models and real-world conditions can be reduced. It concludes with guidelines for a methodology for model calibration and validation of sensor network simulation models.

XML for Model Specification in Neuroscience

One of the main roles of the Neural Open Markup Language, NeuroML, is to facilitate cooperation in building, simulating, testing and publishing models of channels, neurons and networks of neurons. MorphML, which was developed as a common format for exchange of neural morphology data, is distributed as part of NeuroML but can be used as a stand-alone application. In this collection of tutorials and workshop summary, we provide an overview of these XML schemas and provide examples of their use in down-stream applications. We also summarize plans for the further development of XML specifications for modeling channels, channel distributions, and network connectivity.

Effect of initial treatment strategy on survival of patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Several treatment strategies are available for adults with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma, but studies assessing two alternative standards of care-increased dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPPescalated), and doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD)-were not powered to test differences in overall survival. To guide treatment decisions in this population of patients, we did a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify the best initial treatment strategy. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, and conference proceedings for randomised controlled trials published between January, 1980, and June, 2013, that assessed overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma given BEACOPPbaseline, BEACOPPescalated, BEACOPP variants, ABVD, cyclophosphamide (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (C[M]OPP), hybrid or alternating chemotherapy regimens with ABVD as the backbone (eg, COPP/ABVD, MOPP/ABVD), or doxorubicin, vinblastine, mechlorethamine, vincristine, bleomycin, etoposide, and prednisone combined with radiation therapy (the Stanford V regimen). We assessed studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed their quality. We then pooled the data and used a Bayesian random-effects model to combine direct comparisons with indirect evidence. We also reconstructed individual patient survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves and did standard random-effects Poisson regression. Results are reported relative to ABVD. The primary outcome was overall survival. FINDINGS We screened 2055 records and identified 75 papers covering 14 eligible trials that assessed 11 different regimens in 9993 patients, providing 59 651 patient-years of follow-up. 1189 patients died, and the median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 4·9-6·7). Included studies were of high methodological quality, and between-trial heterogeneity was negligible (τ(2)=0·01). Overall survival was highest in patients who received six cycles of BEACOPPescalated (HR 0·38, 95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·20-0·75). Compared with a 5 year survival of 88% for ABVD, the survival benefit for six cycles of BEACOPPescalated is 7% (95% CrI 3-10)-ie, a 5 year survival of 95%. Reconstructed individual survival data showed that, at 5 years, BEACOPPescalated has a 10% (95% CI 3-15) advantage over ABVD in overall survival. INTERPRETATION Six cycles of BEACOPPescalated significantly improves overall survival compared with ABVD and other regimens, and thus we recommend this treatment strategy as standard of care for patients with access to the appropriate supportive care.

Intussusceptive angiogenesis: its role in embryonic vascular network formation

Intussusceptive angiogenesis is a novel mode of blood vessel formation and remodeling, which occurs by internal division of the preexisting capillary plexus without sprouting. In this study, the process is demonstrated in developing chicken eye vasculature and in the chorioallantoic membrane by methylmethacrylate (Mercox) casting, transmission electron microscopy, and in vivo observation. In a first step of intussusceptive angiogenesis, the capillary plexus expands by insertion of numerous transcapillary tissue pillars, ie, by intussusceptive microvascular growth. In a subsequent step, a vascular tree arises from the primitive capillary plexus as a result of intussusceptive pillar formation and pillar fusions, a process we termed "intussusceptive arborization." On the basis of the morphological observations, a 4-step model for intussusceptive arborization is proposed, as follows: phase I, numerous circular pillars are formed in rows, thus demarcating future vessels; phase II, formation of narrow tissue septa by pillar reshaping and pillar fusions; phase III, delineation, segregation, growth, and extraction of the new vascular entity by merging of septa; and phase IV, formation of new branching generations by successively repeating the process, complemented by growth and maturation of all components. In contrast to sprouting, intussusceptive angiogenesis does not require intense local endothelial cell proliferation; it is implemented primarily by rearrangement and attenuation of the endothelial cell plates. In summary, transcapillary pillar formation, ie, intussusception, is a central and probably widespread process, which plays a role not only in capillary network growth and expansion (intussusceptive microvascular growth), but also in vascular plexus remodeling and tree formation (intussusceptive arborization).

Functional regeneration of intraspinal connections in a new in vitro model

Abstract—Regeneration in the adult mammalian spinal cord is limited due to intrinsic properties of mature neurons and a hostile environment, mainly provided by central nervous system myelin and reactive astrocytes. Recent results indicate that propriospinal connections are a promising target for intervention to improve functional recovery. To study this functional regeneration in vitro we developed a model consisting of two organotypic spinal cord slices placed adjacently on multi-electrode arrays. The electrodes allow us to record the spontaneously occurring neuronal activity, which is often organized in network bursts. Within a few days in vitro (DIV), these bursts become synchronized between the two slices due to the formation of axonal connections. We cut them with a scalpel at different time points in vitro and record the neuronal activity 3 weeks later. The functional recovery ability was assessed by calculating the percentage of synchronized bursts between the two slices. We found that cultures lesioned at a young age (7–9 DIV) retained the high regeneration ability of embryonic tissue. However, cultures lesioned at older ages (>19 DIV) displayed a distinct reduction of synchronized activity. This reduction was not accompanied by an inability for axons to cross the lesion site. We show that functional regeneration in these old cultures can be improved by increasing the intracellular cAMP level with Rolipram or by placing a young slice next to an old one directly after the lesion. We conclude that co-cultures of two spinal cord slices are an appropriate model to study functional regeneration of intraspinal connections.