Contagious Illiquidity I: Contagion through Time

This paper is an investigation into the dynamics of asset markets with adverse selection a la Akerlof (1970). The particular question asked is: can market failure at some later date precipitate market failure at an earlier date? The answer is yes: there can be "contagious illiquidity" from the future back to the present. The mechanism works as follows. If the market is expected to break down in the future, then agents holding assets they know to be lemons (assets with low returns) will be forced to hold them for longer - they cannot quickly resell them. As a result, the effective difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset is greater. But it is known from the static Akerlof model that the greater the payoff differential between lemons and non-lemons, the more likely is the market to break down. Hence market failure in the future is more likely to lead to market failure today. Conversely, if the market is not anticipated to break down in the future, assets can be readily sold and hence an agent discovering that his or her asset is a lemon can quickly jettison it. In effect, there is little difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset. The logic of the static Akerlof model then runs the other way: the small payoff differential is unlikely to lead to market breakdown today. The conclusion of the paper is that the nature of today's market - liquid or illiquid - hinges critically on the nature of tomorrow's market, which in turn depends on the next day's, and so on. The tail wags the dog.

Suppliers of Priors: A Theory of Retailing Inspired by the Market for Chinese Antiquities

Adverse selection may thwart trade between an informed seller, who knows the probability p that an item of antiquity is genuine, and an uninformed buyer, who does not know p. The buyer might not be wholly uninformed, however. Suppose he can perform a simple inspection, a test of his own: the probability that an item passes the test is g if the item is genuine, but only f < g if it is fake. Given that the buyer is no expert, his test may have little power: f may be close to g. Unfortunately, without much power, the buyer's test will not resolve the difficulty of adverse selection; gains from trade may remain unexploited. But now consider a "store", where the seller groups a number of items, perhaps all with the same quality, the same probability p of being genuine. (We show that in equilibrium the seller will choose to group items in this manner.) Now the buyer can conduct his test across a large sample, perhaps all, of a group of items in the seller's store. He can thereby assess the overall quality of these items; he can invert the aggregate of his test results to uncover the underlying p; he can form a "prior". There is thus no longer asymmetric information between seller and buyer: gains from trade can be exploited. This is our theory of retailing: by grouping items together - setting up a store - a seller is able to supply buyers with priors, as well as the items themselves. We show that the weaker the power of the buyer�s test (the closer f is to g), the greater the seller�s profit. So the seller has no incentive to assist the buyer � e.g., by performing her own tests on the items, or by cleaning them to reveal more about their true age. The paper ends with an analysis of which sellers should specialise in which qualities. We show that quality will be low in busy locations and high in expensive locations.

Double adjunctions

We characterize double adjunctions in terms of presheaves and universal squares, and then apply these characterizations to free monads and Eilenberg-Moore objects in double categories. We improve upon an earlier result of Fiore-Gambino-Kock in [7] to conclude: if a double category with cofolding admits the construction of free monads in its horizontal 2-category, then it also admits the construction of free monads as a double category horizontally and vertically, and also in its vertical 2-category. We also prove that a double category admits Eilenberg-Moore objects if and only if a certain parameterized presheaf is representable. Along the way, we develop parameterized presheaves on double categories and prove a double Yoneda Lemma.

Estructura de la justificació epistèmica

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la Uniersity de Sheffield, Gran Bretanya, entre octubre del 2007 i febrer del 2008. El treball ha estat centrat en el debat entre liberals i conservadors sobre l’estructura de la justificació perceptiva. Avuí en dia hi ha molts filòsofs que retornen al dogmatisme del sentit comú proclamat per G.E. Moore i la seva Prova sobre el Món Extern: I-Hi ha alguna cosa que sembla una mà; II-Hi ha una mà; III-Hi ha un món extern. És àmpliament acceptat que aquesta prova no constitueix una resposta satisfactòria a l’escepticisme sobre el nostre dret a dir que sabem, però quan es tracta de caracteritzar per què no és satisfactòria hi ha desacord. Això ha dut a encetar el debat entre liberals i conservadors pel qu fa a l’estructura de la justificació perceptiva.

Manejo del carcinoma de páncreas avanzado con el doblete de gemcitabina y erlotinib: Experiencia del Hospital Universitario La Fe

El tratamiento del carcinoma de páncreas continúa siendo uno de los grandes retos de la Oncología Médica. Un mejor conocimiento de las vías moleculares que intervienen en su desarrollo ha contribuido al uso de nuevos agentes terapéuticos dirigidos frente a las mismas. Una de esas vías es la del EGFR. Moore et al llevaron a cabo en 2007 un ensayo fase III aleatorizado en el que compararon gemcitabina frente a gemcitabina y erlotinib (un inhibidor de EGFR) y en el que demostraron de forma estadísticamente significativa por primera vez una mejoría en supervivencia global al asociar un agente a la gemcitabina en el tratamiento del adenocarcinoma pancreático avanzado. Hemos adoptado el esquema empleado en el ensayo fase III de Moore como primera línea de tratamiento del carcinoma pancreático localmente avanzado e irresecable y metastático en nuestro centro y creo necesario analizar la toxicidad y la supervivencia observada en nuestro medio. Para ello presento los resultados de eficacia, toxicidad y supervivencia global en la serie de 55 pacientes tratados con dicho esquema entre octubre de 2007 y octubre de 2010 en nuestro centro.

A genome-wide association study of resistance to HIV infection in highly exposed uninfected individuals with hemophilia A.

Human genetic variation contributes to differences in susceptibility to HIV-1 infection. To search for novel host resistance factors, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in hemophilia patients highly exposed to potentially contaminated factor VIII infusions. Individuals with hemophilia A and a documented history of factor VIII infusions before the introduction of viral inactivation procedures (1979-1984) were recruited from 36 hemophilia treatment centers (HTCs), and their genome-wide genetic variants were compared with those from matched HIV-infected individuals. Homozygous carriers of known CCR5 resistance mutations were excluded. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and inferred copy number variants (CNVs) were tested using logistic regression. In addition, we performed a pathway enrichment analysis, a heritability analysis, and a search for epistatic interactions with CCR5 Δ32 heterozygosity. A total of 560 HIV-uninfected cases were recruited: 36 (6.4%) were homozygous for CCR5 Δ32 or m303. After quality control and SNP imputation, we tested 1 081 435 SNPs and 3686 CNVs for association with HIV-1 serostatus in 431 cases and 765 HIV-infected controls. No SNP or CNV reached genome-wide significance. The additional analyses did not reveal any strong genetic effect. Highly exposed, yet uninfected hemophiliacs form an ideal study group to investigate host resistance factors. Using a genome-wide approach, we did not detect any significant associations between SNPs and HIV-1 susceptibility, indicating that common genetic variants of major effect are unlikely to explain the observed resistance phenotype in this population.

A Review of Harm Reduction Approaches in Ireland and Evidence from the International Literature

This report examines international literature on harm reduction and also presents primary research in health services in Ireland on approaches to harm reduction. The aim of harm reduction efforts is to minimise the risks stemming from shared use of drug-use paraphernalia, such as needle exchange programmes. One of the criticisms of Irish drug services is that the restricted opening hours and limited number of exchange services may contribute to continued sharing of needles among drug users. The report points out that other non-injecting paraphernalia such as spoons are also associated with the risk of contracting diseases, yet services do not as yet focus on them. The report notes that specific risk factors that contribute to risky drug practices include youth, a shorter injecting history, confinement to prison, homelessness and being involved in a sexual relationship with another intravenous drug user. The report suggests that harm reduction practices can be introduced into a prison population without a subsequent increase in drug consumption rates. The provision of consumption rooms and the prescription of heroin are also discussed, with the report noting that legislation would have to altered to implement these new strategies.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Health Status of Gypsies and Travellers in England

Qualitative study into the effect of the attitudes, beliefs and lifestyles of Travellers and Gypsies on health inequality issues.

Genetic evidence that the higher plant Rab-D1 and Rab-D2 GTPases exhibit distinct but overlapping interactions in the early secretory pathway.

GTPases of the Rab1 subclass are essential for membrane traffic between the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and Golgi complex in animals, fungi and plants. Rab1-related proteins in higher plants are unusual because sequence comparisons divide them into two putative subclasses, Rab-D1 and Rab-D2, that are conserved in monocots and dicots. We tested the hypothesis that the Rab-D1 and Rab-D2 proteins of Arabidopsis represent functionally distinct groups. RAB-D1 and RAB-D2a each targeted fluorescent proteins to the same punctate structures associated with the Golgi stacks and trans-Golgi-network. Dominant-inhibitory N121I mutants of each protein inhibited traffic of diverse cargo proteins at the ER but they appeared to act via distinct biochemical pathways as biosynthetic traffic in cells expressing either of the N121I mutants could be restored by coexpressing the wild-type form of the same subclass but not the other subclass. The same interaction was observed in transgenic seedlings expressing RAB-D1 [N121I]. Insertional mutants confirmed that the three Arabidopsis Rab-D2 genes were extensively redundant and collectively performed an essential function that could not be provided by RAB-D1, which was non-essential. However, plants lacking RAB-D1, RAB-D2b and RAB-D2c were short and bushy with low fertility, indicating that the Rab-D1 and Rab-D2 subclasses have overlapping functions.

Cancer genes hypermethylated in human embryonic stem cells.

Developmental genes are silenced in embryonic stem cells by a bivalent histone-based chromatin mark. It has been proposed that this mark also confers a predisposition to aberrant DNA promoter hypermethylation of tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) in cancer. We report here that silencing of a significant proportion of these TSGs in human embryonic and adult stem cells is associated with promoter DNA hypermethylation. Our results indicate a role for DNA methylation in the control of gene expression in human stem cells and suggest that, for genes repressed by promoter hypermethylation in stem cells in vivo, the aberrant process in cancer could be understood as a defect in establishing an unmethylated promoter during differentiation, rather than as an anomalous process of de novo hypermethylation.

Complicated intra-abdominal infections in a worldwide context: an observational prospective study (CIAOW Study).

Despite advances in diagnosis, surgery, and antimicrobial therapy, mortality rates associated with complicated intra-abdominal infections remain exceedingly high. The World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) has designed the CIAOW study in order to describe the clinical, microbiological, and management-related profiles of both community- and healthcare-acquired complicated intra-abdominal infections in a worldwide context. The CIAOW study (Complicated Intra-Abdominal infection Observational Worldwide Study) is a multicenter observational study currently underway in 57 medical institutions worldwide. The study includes patients undergoing surgery or interventional drainage to address complicated intra-abdominal infections. This preliminary report includes all data from almost the first two months of the six-month study period. Patients who met inclusion criteria with either community-acquired or healthcare-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) were included in the study. 702 patients with a mean age of 49.2 years (range 18-98) were enrolled in the study. 272 patients (38.7%) were women and 430 (62.3%) were men. Among these patients, 615 (87.6%) were affected by community-acquired IAIs while the remaining 87 (12.4%) suffered from healthcare-associated infections. Generalized peritonitis was observed in 304 patients (43.3%), whereas localized peritonitis or abscesses was registered in 398 (57.7%) patients.The overall mortality rate was 10.1% (71/702). The final results of the CIAOW Study will be published following the conclusion of the study period in March 2013.

Additive functions in boolean models of gene regulatory network modules.

Gene-on-gene regulations are key components of every living organism. Dynamical abstract models of genetic regulatory networks help explain the genome's evolvability and robustness. These properties can be attributed to the structural topology of the graph formed by genes, as vertices, and regulatory interactions, as edges. Moreover, the actual gene interaction of each gene is believed to play a key role in the stability of the structure. With advances in biology, some effort was deployed to develop update functions in Boolean models that include recent knowledge. We combine real-life gene interaction networks with novel update functions in a Boolean model. We use two sub-networks of biological organisms, the yeast cell-cycle and the mouse embryonic stem cell, as topological support for our system. On these structures, we substitute the original random update functions by a novel threshold-based dynamic function in which the promoting and repressing effect of each interaction is considered. We use a third real-life regulatory network, along with its inferred Boolean update functions to validate the proposed update function. Results of this validation hint to increased biological plausibility of the threshold-based function. To investigate the dynamical behavior of this new model, we visualized the phase transition between order and chaos into the critical regime using Derrida plots. We complement the qualitative nature of Derrida plots with an alternative measure, the criticality distance, that also allows to discriminate between regimes in a quantitative way. Simulation on both real-life genetic regulatory networks show that there exists a set of parameters that allows the systems to operate in the critical region. This new model includes experimentally derived biological information and recent discoveries, which makes it potentially useful to guide experimental research. The update function confers additional realism to the model, while reducing the complexity and solution space, thus making it easier to investigate.

Complicated intra-abdominal infections worldwide: the definitive data of the CIAOW Study.

The CIAOW study (Complicated intra-abdominal infections worldwide observational study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 68 medical institutions worldwide during a six-month study period (October 2012-March 2013). The study included patients older than 18 years undergoing surgery or interventional drainage to address complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs). 1898 patients with a mean age of 51.6 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the study. 777 patients (41%) were women and 1,121 (59%) were men. Among these patients, 1,645 (86.7%) were affected by community-acquired IAIs while the remaining 253 (13.3%) suffered from healthcare-associated infections. Intraperitoneal specimens were collected from 1,190 (62.7%) of the enrolled patients. 827 patients (43.6%) were affected by generalized peritonitis while 1071 (56.4%) suffered from localized peritonitis or abscesses. The overall mortality rate was 10.5% (199/1898). According to stepwise multivariate analysis (PR = 0.005 and PE = 0.001), several criteria were found to be independent variables predictive of mortality, including patient age (OR = 1.1; 95%CI = 1.0-1.1; p < 0.0001), the presence of small bowel perforation (OR = 2.8; 95%CI = 1.5-5.3; p < 0.0001), a delayed initial intervention (a delay exceeding 24 hours) (OR = 1.8; 95%CI = 1.5-3.7; p < 0.0001), ICU admission (OR = 5.9; 95%CI = 3.6-9.5; p < 0.0001) and patient immunosuppression (OR = 3.8; 95%CI = 2.1-6.7; p < 0.0001).

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.