Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Integrated random processes exhibiting long tails, finite moments, and power-law spectra

A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling assumption, takes on a form that is the basis of the results derived in the rest of the paper. One of these is an expansion for the cumulants, which are all finite, subject to mild conditions on the functions defining the process. This is in contrast with the Lévy distribution¿which can be obtained from our model in certain limits¿which has no finite moments. The evaluation of the spectral density and the form of the probability density function in the tails of the distribution shows that the model exhibits a power-law spectrum and long tails in a natural way. A careful analysis of the characteristic function shows that it may be separated into a part representing a Lévy process together with another part representing the deviation of our model from the Lévy process. This

Entropy change and magnetocaloric effect in Gd5(SixGe1-x)4

Isothermal magnetization curves up to 23 T have been measured in Gd5Si1.8Ge2.2. We show that the values of the entropy change at the first-order magnetostructural transition, obtained from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and the Maxwell relation, are coincident, provided the Maxwell relation is evaluated only within the transition region and the maximum applied field is high enough to complete the transition. These values are also in agreement with the entropy change obtained from differential scanning calorimetry. We also show that a simple phenomenological model based on the temperature and field dependence of the magnetization accounts for these results.

Estimation of the correlation structure of crustal velocity heterogeneity from seismic reflection data

Numerous sources of evidence point to the fact that heterogeneity within the Earth's deep crystalline crust is complex and hence may be best described through stochastic rather than deterministic approaches. As seismic reflection imaging arguably offers the best means of sampling deep crustal rocks in situ, much interest has been expressed in using such data to characterize the stochastic nature of crustal heterogeneity. Previous work on this problem has shown that the spatial statistics of seismic reflection data are indeed related to those of the underlying heterogeneous seismic velocity distribution. As of yet, however, the nature of this relationship has remained elusive due to the fact that most of the work was either strictly empirical or based on incorrect methodological approaches. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on the assumption of weak scattering, that allows us to quantitatively link the second-order statistics of a 2-D seismic velocity distribution with those of the corresponding processed and depth-migrated seismic reflection image. We then perform a sensitivity study in order to investigate what information regarding the stochastic model parameters describing crustal velocity heterogeneity might potentially be recovered from the statistics of a seismic reflection image using this model. Finally, we present a Monte Carlo inversion strategy to estimate these parameters and we show examples of its application at two different source frequencies and using two different sets of prior information. Our results indicate that the inverse problem is inherently non-unique and that many different combinations of the vertical and lateral correlation lengths describing the velocity heterogeneity can yield seismic images with the same 2-D autocorrelation structure. The ratio of all of these possible combinations of vertical and lateral correlation lengths, however, remains roughly constant which indicates that, without additional prior information, the aspect ratio is the only parameter describing the stochastic seismic velocity structure that can be reliably recovered.

Hay competencia en el mercado europeo de transporte aéreo?: el caso español

La liberalización del transporte aéreo que se llevó a término en la Unión Europea a principios de los años noventa ha tenido efectos positivos sobre el bienestar del viajero. No obstante, existe un consenso en la literatura académica que estos efectos dependen de la existencia de una competencia efectiva en el nivel de la ruta. En este sentido, se plantea el problema que puede llegar a suponer las ventajas de escalera de las compañías dominantes en cada mercado interior. Además, se pretende capturar la diferenciación de productos como característica esencial de la industria del transporte aéreo. El análisis de estas cuestiones se realiza de la forma siguiente. En primer lugar, se hace referencia a los principales aspectos económicos que condicionan la competencia en el transporte aéreo. Y en segundo lugar, se implementa un modelo empírico basado en un sistema de tres ecuaciones, que se estima mediante la técnica de las variables instrumentales. La muestra utilizada hace referencia al año 2001 para la mayoría de las rutas del mercado interior español de vuelos regulares en dónde hay competencia. Los resultados de la estimación muestran la existencia de unas condiciones de competencia diferentes según el segmento del mercado al cual se dirigen las compañías aéreas. Efectivamente, la competencia en precios (calidad) parece ser predominante en el segmento de viajeros por motivos personales (negocios). Adicionalmente, el dominio que la compañía dominante tiene sobre la mayoría de las rutas parece descansar en las ventajas competitivas, tanto en términos de costes como en términos de demanda, que le proporciona el control de la red aeroportuaria nacional. De todo esto se puede inferir que el mantenimiento y/o aumento de los beneficios de la liberalización de los servicios de transporte aéreo exige extender la liberalización al uso del aeropuertos así como descentralizar su gestión.

Unraveling dynamics of human physical activity patterns in chronic pain conditions.

Chronic pain is a complex disabling experience that negatively affects the cognitive, affective and physical functions as well as behavior. Although the interaction between chronic pain and physical functioning is a well-accepted paradigm in clinical research, the understanding of how pain affects individuals' daily life behavior remains a challenging task. Here we develop a methodological framework allowing to objectively document disruptive pain related interferences on real-life physical activity. The results reveal that meaningful information is contained in the temporal dynamics of activity patterns and an analytical model based on the theory of bivariate point processes can be used to describe physical activity behavior. The model parameters capture the dynamic interdependence between periods and events and determine a 'signature' of activity pattern. The study is likely to contribute to the clinical understanding of complex pain/disease-related behaviors and establish a unified mathematical framework to quantify the complex dynamics of various human activities.

Fingerlike aggregates in thin-layer electrodeposition

Electrodeposition experiments conducted in a thin-layer horizontal cell containing a nonbinary aqueous electrolyte prepared with cupric sulfate and sodium sulfate gave rise to fingerlike deposits, a novel and unexpected growth mode in this context. Both the leading instability from which fingers emerge and some distinctive features of their steady evolution are interpreted in terms of a simple model based on the existing theory of fingering in fluids.

Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

The four- vs. alternative six-factor structure of the French WISC-IV: Comparison using confirmatory factor analyses

Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses reported in the French technical manual of the WISC-IV provides evidence supporting a structure with four indices: Verbal Comprehension (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning (PRI), Working Memory (WMI), and Processing Speed (PSI). Although the WISC-IV is more attuned to contemporary theory, it is still not in total accordance with the dominant theory: the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive ability. This study was designed to determine whether the French WISC-IV is better described with the four-factor solution or whether an alternative model based on the CHC theory is more appropriate. The intercorrelations matrix reported in the French technical manual was submitted to confirmatory factor analysis. A comparison of competing models suggests that a model based on the CHC theory fits the data better than the current WISC-IV structure. It appears that the French WISC-IV in fact measures six factors: crystallized intelligence (Gc), fluid intelligence (Gf), short-term memory (Gsm), processing speed (Gs), quantitative knowledge (Gq), and visual processing (Gv). We recommend that clinicians interpret the subtests of the French WISC-IV in relation to this CHC model in addition to the four indices.

Aggregation of liposomes induced by calcium: A structural and kinetic study

In this work, the calcium-induced aggregation of phosphatidylserine liposomes is probed by means of the analysis of the kinetics of such process as well as the aggregate morphology. This novel characterization of liposome aggregation involves the use of static and dynamic light-scattering techniques to obtain kinetic exponents and fractal dimensions. For salt concentrations larger than 5 mM, a diffusion-limited aggregation regime is observed and the Brownian kernel properly describes the time evolution of the diffusion coefficient. For slow kinetics, a slightly modified multiple contact kernel is required. In any case, a time evolution model based on the numerical resolution of Smoluchowski's equation is proposed in order to establish a theoretical description for the aggregating system. Such a model provides an alternative procedure to determine the dimerization constant, which might supply valuable information about interaction mechanisms between phospholipid vesicles.

Syndrome d'hyperstimulation ovarienne [The syndrome of ovarian hyperstimulation].

The ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (SHO) can be defined as an iatrogenic pathology induced by active substances administered for controlling follicular maturation and ovulation. The etiology, the physiopathology, the diagnostic and therapeutic methods available are discussed. A theoretical model, based on clinical data, allows identification of a set of criteria which should help determining prospectively the chances of development of such a pathology.

Estimation of the noisy component of anatomical backgrounds.

The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.

Dosage optimization of treatments using population pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation.

Pharmacokinetic variability in drug levels represent for some drugs a major determinant of treatment success, since sub-therapeutic concentrations might lead to toxic reactions, treatment discontinuation or inefficacy. This is true for most antiretroviral drugs, which exhibit high inter-patient variability in their pharmacokinetics that has been partially explained by some genetic and non-genetic factors. The population pharmacokinetic approach represents a very useful tool for the description of the dose-concentration relationship, the quantification of variability in the target population of patients and the identification of influencing factors. It can thus be used to make predictions and dosage adjustment optimization based on Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). This approach has been used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine (NVP) in 137 HIV-positive patients followed within the frame of a TDM program. Among tested covariates, body weight, co-administration of a cytochrome (CYP) 3A4 inducer or boosted atazanavir as well as elevated aspartate transaminases showed an effect on NVP elimination. In addition, genetic polymorphism in the CYP2B6 was associated with reduced NVP clearance. Altogether, these factors could explain 26% in NVP variability. Model-based simulations were used to compare the adequacy of different dosage regimens in relation to the therapeutic target associated with treatment efficacy. In conclusion, the population approach is very useful to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of drugs in a population of interest. The quantification and the identification of the sources of variability is a rational approach to making optimal dosage decision for certain drugs administered chronically.

Shielding requirements in helical tomotherapy.

Helical tomotherapy is a relatively new intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment for which room shielding has to be reassessed for the following reasons. The beam-on-time needed to deliver a given target dose is increased and leads to a weekly workload of typically one order of magnitude higher than that for conventional radiation therapy. The special configuration of tomotherapy units does not allow the use of standard shielding calculation methods. A conventional linear accelerator must be shielded for primary, leakage and scatter photon radiations. For tomotherapy, primary radiation is no longer the main shielding issue since a beam stop is mounted on the gantry directly opposite the source. On the other hand, due to the longer irradiation time, the accelerator head leakage becomes a major concern. An analytical model based on geometric considerations has been developed to determine leakage radiation levels throughout the room for continuous gantry rotation. Compared to leakage radiation, scatter radiation is a minor contribution. Since tomotherapy units operate at a nominal energy of 6 MV, neutron production is negligible. This work proposes a synthetic and conservative model for calculating shielding requirements for the Hi-Art II TomoTherapy unit. Finally, the required concrete shielding thickness is given for different positions of interest.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.