960 resultados para Misspecification, Sign restrictions, Shock identification, Model validation.


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Epoetin-delta (Dynepo Shire Pharmaceuticals, Basing stoke, UK) is a synthetic form of erythropoietin (EPO) whose resemblance with endogenous EPO makes it hard to identify using the classical identification criteria. Urine samples collected from six healthy volunteers treated with epoetin-delta injections and from a control population were immuno-purified and analyzed with the usual IEF method. On the basis of the EPO profiles integration, a linear multivariate model was computed for discriminant analysis. For each sample, a pattern classification algorithm returned a bands distribution and intensity score (bands intensity score) saying how representative this sample is of one of the two classes, positive or negative. Effort profiles were also integrated in the model. The method yielded a good sensitivity versus specificity relation and was used to determine the detection window of the molecule following multiple injections. The bands intensity score, which can be generalized to epoetin-alpha and epoetin-beta, is proposed as an alternative criterion and a supplementary evidence for the identification of EPO abuse.

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Dermatophytes are the main cause of superficial mycoses. These fungi have the capacity to invade keratinized tissue of humans or animals to produce infections that are generally restricted to the corneocytes of the skin, hair, and nails. Nevertheless, it is common to obtain negative results from fungal cultures of dermatological specimens where direct mycological examination showed fungal elements (30-40%). However, correct identification of the isolated dermatophytes from Tinea is important to choose the appropriate treatment. Therefore, we aim to develop a rapid polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) assay based on 28S rDNA that is able to identify dermatophytes species in positive dermatological samples. PCR-RFLP identification of dermatophytes in skin or hair allowed validation of the results obtained in culture. It was also possible to identify the infectious dermatophytes when direct hair/ skin mycological examination showed fungal elements, but negative results were obtained from fungal culture. As a conclusion, PCR methods may provide significant benefits in the rapid diagnosis of Tinea. First, there is an increase in sensitivity of dermatophytes identification when enough material is available. Secondly, identification of the infecting agent can be obtained in 24 hours with PCR-RFLP or sequencing, whereas results from fungal cultures can take 2-3 weeks.

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BACKGROUND: During hibernation the kidney is in a hypothermic condition where renal blood flow is minimal and urine production is much reduced. Periodical arousal from hibernation is associated with kidney reperfusion at increasing body temperature, and restored urine production rate. METHODS: To assess the degree of structural preservation during such extreme conditions, the kidney cortex was investigated by means of electron microscopy in the dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius during winter hibernation, arousal from hibernation and the summer active period. RESULTS: Results show that the fine structure of the kidney cortex is well preserved during hibernation. In the renal corpuscle, a sign of slight lesion was the focal presence of oedematous endothelial cells and/or podocytes. Proximal convoluted tubule cells showed fully preserved ultrastructure and polarity, and hypertrophic apical endocytic apparatus. Structural changes were associated with increased plasma electrolytes, creatinine and urea nitrogen, and proteinuria. During the process of arousal the fine structure of the kidney cortex was also well maintained. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that dormice are able to fully preserve kidney cortex structure under extreme conditions resembling e.g. severe ischaemia or hypothermic organ storage for transplantation, and reperfusion. Elucidation of the mechanisms involved in such a natural model of organ preservation could be relevant to human medicine.

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Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

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An excreted iron superoxide dismutase (FeSODe) of pI 3.6 with a molecular weight of 28-30 kDa was detected in the in vitro culture of Phytomonas isolated from Euphorbia characias (SODeCHA) and from Lycopersicon esculentum (SODeTOM), in Grace's medium without serum. These FeSODe excreted into the medium had immunogenic capacity: the positivity of the anti-SODeCHA serum persisted to a dilution of 1/30,000, and for the anti-SODeTOM to 1/10,000 by Western blot. In addition, cross reaction was detected between the anti-SODe serum of Phytomonas isolated from E. characias against SODeTOM, and the anti-SODe serum from L. esculentum with SODeCHA. This characteristic offers the possibility of its use to diagnose plant trypanosomatids. The validation of the test was confirmed by experimental inoculation of tomato fruits with Phytomonas isolated from L. esculentum. At 7, 10, 15, and 21 days post infection, it was possible to detect the presence of the parasites with the anti-SODe serum of Phytomonas isolated from L. esculentum at a dilution of 1/250. These serological results were confirmed by visualization of the parasites by optical microscopy. The data of this study confirm that the SOD is sufficient to identify a trypanosomatid isolated from plants as belonging to the genus Phytomonas.

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The increasing number of pertussis cases reported on the last twenty years and the existence of new acellular vaccines reinforce the need of research for experimental models to assure the quality of available pertussis vaccines. In this study, allotments of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines were tested through the Intranasal Challenge Model (INM) using conventional NIH mice. The results have been compared to those achieved by the "Gold standard" Intracerebral Challenge Model (ICM). In contrast to ICM, INM results did not show intralaboratorial variations. Statistical analysis by Anova and Ancova tests revealed that the INM presented reproducibility and allowed identification and separation of different products, including three-component and four-component accellular pertussis vaccines. INM revealed differences between pertussis vaccines. INM provides lower distress to the mice allowing the reduction of mice number including the possibility of using conventional mice (less expensive) under non-aseptic environment. Thus, INM may be used as an alternative method of verifying the consistence of allotment production, including acellular pertussis vaccines.

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One of the main difficulties in studying dengue virus infection in humans and in developing a vaccine is the absence of a suitable animal model which develops the full spectrum of dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome. It is our proposal to present morphological aspects of an animal model which shows many similarities with the dengue infection in humans. BALB/c mice were intraperitoneally infected with non-neuroadapted dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2). Histopathological and morphometrical analyses of liver tissue revealed focal alterations along the infection, reaching wide-ranging portal and centrolobular veins congestion and sinusoidal cell death. Additional ultrastructural observations demonstrated multifocal endothelial injury, platelet recruitment, and alterated hepatocytes. Dengue virus antigen was detected in hepatocytes and in the capillar endothelium of the central lobular vein area. Liver function tests showed high levels of aspartate transaminase and alanine transaminase enzyme activity. Lung tissue showed interstitial pneumonia and mononuclear cells, interseptal oedema, hyperplasia, and hypertrophy of the bronchiolar epithelial cells. DENV-2 led to a transient inflammatory process, but caused focal alterations of the blood-exchange barrier. Viremia was observed from 2nd to 11th day p.i. by isolation of DENV-2 in C6/36 mosquito cell line inoculated with the supernatant of macerated liver, lung, kidney, and cerebellum tissues of the infected mice.

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General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

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An important cytokine role in dengue fever pathogenesis has been described. These molecules can be associated with haemorrhagic manifestations, coagulation disorders, hypotension and shock, all symptoms implicated in vascular permeability and disease worsening conditions. Several immunological diseases have been treated by cytokine modulation and dexamethasone is utilized clinically to treat pathologies with inflammatory and autoimmune ethiologies. We established an in vitro model with human monocytes infected by dengue virus-2 for evaluating immunomodulatory and antiviral activities of potential pharmaceutical products. Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated significant dengue antigen detection in target cells two days after infection. TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha, IL-6 and IL-10 are produced by in vitro infected monocytes and are significantly detected in cell culture supernatants by multiplex microbead immunoassay. Dexamethasone action was tested for the first time for its modulation in dengue infection, presenting optimistic results in both decreasing cell infection rates and inhibiting TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha and IL-10 production. This model is proposed for novel drug trials yet to be applyed for dengue fever.

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A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

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Background: The lack of adequate instruments prevents the possibility of assessing the competence of health care staff in evidence-based decision making and further, the identification of areas for improvement with tailored strategies. The aim of this study is to report about the validation process in the Spanish context of the Evidence-Based Practice Questionnaire (EBPQ) from Upton y Upton. Methods: A multicentre, cross-sectional, descriptive psychometric validation study was carried out. For cultural adaptation, a bidirectional translation was developed, accordingly to usual standards. The measuring model from the questionnaire was undergone to contrast, reproducing the original structure by Exploratory Factorial Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factorial Analysis (CFA), including the reliability of factors. Results: Both EFA (57.545% of total variance explained) and CFA (chi2=2359,9555; gl=252; p<0.0001; RMSEA=0,1844; SRMR=0,1081), detected problems with items 7, 16, 22, 23 and 24, regarding to the original trifactorial version of EBPQ. After deleting some questions, a reduced version containing 19 items obtained an adequate factorial structure (62.29% of total variance explained), but the CFA did not fit well. Nevertheless, it was significantly better than the original version (chi2=673.1261; gl=149; p<0.0001; RMSEA=0.1196; SRMR=0.0648). Conclusions: The trifactorial model obtained good empiric evidence and could be used in our context, but the results invite to advance with further refinements into the factor “attitude”, testing it in more contexts and with more diverse professional profiles.

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We describe the relationship between lesion outcome and histopathological hallmarks in susceptible (BALB/c) and resistant (C57BL/6 and IL-4-deficient BALB/c) mouse strains over the course of a 12-week-infection with Leishmania major in the ear. The infiltration of mononuclear cells and polymorphonuclear cells occurred within 6 h and mononuclear cells predominated one week post-infection. Permissive intracellular growth of the pathogen was associated with non-healing lesions. In contrast, tissue damage and clearance of the parasite was observed in healing lesions and was associated with inducible nitric oxide synthase expression. The identification of the structural components of tissue reaction to the parasite in this study furthers our understanding of subjacent immune effector mechanisms.

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In the context of the investigation of the use of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) for the evaluation of fingerprint evidence, the current study presents investigations into the variability of scores from an AFIS system when fingermarks from a known donor are compared to fingerprints that are not from the same source. The ultimate goal is to propose a model, based on likelihood ratios, which allows the evaluation of mark-to-print comparisons. In particular, this model, through its use of AFIS technology, benefits from the possibility of using a large amount of data, as well as from an already built-in proximity measure, the AFIS score. More precisely, the numerator of the LR is obtained from scores issued from comparisons between impressions from the same source and showing the same minutia configuration. The denominator of the LR is obtained by extracting scores from comparisons of the questioned mark with a database of non-matching sources. This paper focuses solely on the assignment of the denominator of the LR. We refer to it by the generic term of between-finger variability. The issues addressed in this paper in relation to between-finger variability are the required sample size, the influence of the finger number and general pattern, as well as that of the number of minutiae included and their configuration on a given finger. Results show that reliable estimation of between-finger variability is feasible with 10,000 scores. These scores should come from the appropriate finger number/general pattern combination as defined by the mark. Furthermore, strategies of obtaining between-finger variability when these elements cannot be conclusively seen on the mark (and its position with respect to other marks for finger number) have been presented. These results immediately allow case-by-case estimation of the between-finger variability in an operational setting.

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Introduction: Ethylglucuronide (EtG) is a direct and specific metabolite of ethanol. Its determination in hair is of increasing interest for detecting and monitoring alcohol abuse. The quantification of EtG in hair requires analytical methods showing highest sensitivity and specificity. We present a fully validated method based on gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (GC-NCI-MS/MS). The method was validated using French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) guidelines which are based on the determination of the total measurement error and accuracy profiles. Methods: Washed and powdered hair is extracted in water using an ultrasonic incubation. After purification by Oasis MAX solid phase extraction, the derivatized EtG is detected and quantified by GC-NCI-MS/MS method in the selected reaction monitoring mode. The transitions m/z 347 / 163 and m/z 347 / 119 were used for the quantification and identification of EtG. Four quality controls (QC) prepared with hair samples taken post mortem from 2 subjects with a known history of alcoholism were used. A proficiency test with 7 participating laboratories was first run to validate the EtG concentration of each QC sample. Considering the results of this test, these samples were then used as internal controls for validation of the method. Results: The mean EtG concentrations measured in the 4 QC were 259.4, 130.4, 40.8, and 8.4 pg/mg hair. Method validation has shown linearity between 8.4 and 259.4 pg/mg hair (r2 > 0.999). The lower limit of quantification was set up at 8.4 pg/mg. Repeatability and intermediate precision were found less than 13.2% for all concentrations tested. Conclusion: The method proved to be suitable for routine analysis of EtG in hair. GC-NCI-MS/MS method was then successfully applied to the analysis of EtG in hair samples collected from different alcohol consumers.

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We have examined the internal validity of the French translation of the NEO PI-R personality test which measures the « big five » (Rolland, 1993). The impact of age, gender and professional categories on the NEO PI-R scales was assessed. A large sample (n=731) of subjects of different age, gender and profession and a sample of Swiss students (n=261) responding anonymously were used. Factor analyses confirmed the structure of the instrument (5 domains) and the structures of the domains in terms of facets (six facets within each domain). On the other hand, the age has a significant impact on all the domains of the NEO PI-R; the gender has an impact on the scores on N (neuroticism), O (openness) and A (agreeableness), and the profession has an impact on the domains E (extraversion), O (openness) and A (agreeableness). The scores on several facets are also affected by those three variables. Our study gives the researchers and the practitioner a reference score table according to the studied variables.