A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability

The differences on the phase and wavelength of the quasi-stationary waves over the South America generated by El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events seem to affect the daily evolution of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes (SALLJ). For the austral summer period of 1977 2004 the SALLJ episodes detected according to Bonner criterion 1 show normal to above-normal frequency in EN years, and in LN years the episodes show normal to below-normal frequency. During EN and LN years the SALLJ episodes were associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the La Plata Basin, but more intense during LN years. During EN years the increase in the SALLJ cases were associated to intensification of the Subtropical Jet (SJ) around 30 degrees S and positive Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies over the western equatorial Atlantic and tropical South America, particularly over central Brazil. This favored the intensification of the northeasterly trade winds over the northern continent and it channeled by the Andes mountain to the La Plata Basin region where negative SLP are found. The SALLJ cases identified during the LN events were weaker and less frequent when compared to those for EN years. In this case the SJ was weaker than in EN years and the negative SLP anomalies over the tropical continent contributed to the inversion of the northeasterly trade winds. Also a southerly flow anomaly was generated by the geostrophic balance due to the anomalous blocking over southeast Pacific and the intense cyclonic transient over the southern tip of South America. As result the warm tropical air brought by the SALLJ encounters the cold extratropical air from the southerly winds over the La Plata basin. This configuration can increase the conditional instability over the La Plata basin and may explain the more intense positive rainfall anomalies in SALLJ cases during LN years than in EN years.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

The role of the observed tropical convection in the generation of frost events in the southern cone of South America

Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts.

Newtonian perturbations on models with matter creation

Creation of cold dark matter (CCDM) can macroscopically be described by a negative pressure, and, therefore, the mechanism is capable to accelerate the Universe, without the need of an additional dark energy component. In this framework, we discuss the evolution of perturbations by considering a Neo-Newtonian approach where, unlike in the standard Newtonian cosmology, the fluid pressure is taken into account even in the homogeneous and isotropic background equations (Lima, Zanchin, and Brandenberger, MNRAS 291, L1, 1997). The evolution of the density contrast is calculated in the linear approximation and compared to the one predicted by the Lambda CDM model. The difference between the CCDM and Lambda CDM predictions at the perturbative level is quantified by using three different statistical methods, namely: a simple chi(2)-analysis in the relevant space parameter, a Bayesian statistical inference, and, finally, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We find that under certain circumstances, the CCDM scenario analyzed here predicts an overall dynamics (including Hubble flow and matter fluctuation field) which fully recovers that of the traditional cosmic concordance model. Our basic conclusion is that such a reduction of the dark sector provides a viable alternative description to the accelerating Lambda CDM cosmology.

Physical and dynamical characterization of (5201) Ferraz-Mello, a possible extinct Jupiter family comet

Context. The subject of asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs) has been of growing interest lately. These objects have the orbital characteristics typical of comets, but are asteroidal in appearance, i.e., show no signs of a coma at any part of their orbits. At least a fraction of these objects are thought to be comets that have either exhausted all their volatile content or developed a refractory crust that prevents sublimation. In particular, the asteroid ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello has, since its discovery, been suspected to be an extinct Jupiter family comet due to the peculiar nature of its orbit. Aims. The aim of this work is to put constraints on the possible origin of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello by means of spectroscopic characterization and a study of the dynamics of this asteroid. Methods. We used the SOAR Optical Imager (SOI) to obtain observations of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello using four SDSS filters. These observations were compared to asteroids listed in the Sloan Moving objects catalog and also to photometry of cometary nuclei, Centaurs, and TNOs. The orbital evolution of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello and of a sample of asteroids and comets that are close to that object in the a - e plane were simulated using a pure N-body code for 4 000 years forward and 4 000 years backward in time. Results. The reflectance spectrum obtained from its colors in the SDSS system is unusual, with a steep spectral gradient that is comparable to TNOs and Centaurs, but with an increase in the reflectance in the g band that is not common in those populations. A similar behavior is seen in cometary nuclei that were observed in the presence of a faint dust coma. The dynamical results confirm the very chaotic evolution found previously and its dynamical similarity to the chaotic evolution of some comets. The asteroid is situated in the very stochastic layer at the border of the 2/1 resonance, and it has a very short Lyapunov time ( 30 - 40) years. Together, the spectral characteristcs and the dynamical evolution suggest that ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello is a dormant or extinct comet.

NGC 7097: THE ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS AND ITS MIRROR, REVEALED BY PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS TOMOGRAPHY

Three-dimensional spectroscopy techniques are becoming more and more popular, producing an increasing number of large data cubes. The challenge of extracting information from these cubes requires the development of new techniques for data processing and analysis. We apply the recently developed technique of principal component analysis (PCA) tomography to a data cube from the center of the elliptical galaxy NGC 7097 and show that this technique is effective in decomposing the data into physically interpretable information. We find that the first five principal components of our data are associated with distinct physical characteristics. In particular, we detect a low-ionization nuclear-emitting region (LINER) with a weak broad component in the Balmer lines. Two images of the LINER are present in our data, one seen through a disk of gas and dust, and the other after scattering by free electrons and/or dust particles in the ionization cone. Furthermore, we extract the spectrum of the LINER, decontaminated from stellar and extended nebular emission, using only the technique of PCA tomography. We anticipate that the scattered image has polarized light due to its scattered nature.

Rotation curve bifurcations as indicators of close recent galaxy encounters

Context. Rotation curves of interacting galaxies often show that velocities are either rising or falling in the direction of the companion galaxy. Aims. We seek to reproduce and analyse these features in the rotation curves of simulated equal-mass galaxies suffering a one-to-one encounter as possible indicators of close encounters. Methods. Using simulations of major mergers in 3D, we study the time evolution of these asymmetries in a pair of galaxies during the first passage. Results. Our main results are: (a) the rotation curve asymmetries appear right at pericentre of the first passage, (b) the significant disturbed rotation velocities occur within a small time interval, of similar to 0.5 Gyr h(-1), and, therefore, the presence of bifurcation in the velocity curve could be used as an indicator of the pericentre occurrence. These results are in qualitative agreement with previous findings for minor mergers and flybys.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

Kinematics of galaxies in compact groups Studying the B-band Tully-Fischer relation

We obtained new Fabry-Perot data cubes and derived velocity fields, monochromatic, and velocity dispersion maps for 28 galaxies in the Hickson compact groups 37, 40, 47, 49, 54, 56, 68, 79, and 93. We also derived rotation curves for 9 of the studied galaxies, 6 of which are strongly asymmetric. Combining these new data with previously published 2D kinematic maps of compact group galaxies, we investigated the differences between the kinematic and morphological position angles for a sample of 46 galaxies. We find that one third of the unbarred compact group galaxies have position angle misalignments between the stellar and gaseous components. This and the asymmetric rotation curves are clear signatures of kinematic perturbations, probably because of interactions among compact group galaxies. A comparison between the B-band Tully-Fisher relation for compact group galaxies and for the GHASP field-galaxy sample shows that, despite the high fraction of compact group galaxies with asymmetric rotation curves, these lay on the TF relation defined by galaxies in less dense environments, although with more scatter. This agrees with previous results, but now confirmed for a larger sample of 41 galaxies. We confirm the tendency for compact group galaxies at the low-mass end of the Tully-Fisher relation (HCG 49b, 89d, 96c, 96d, and 100c) to have either a magnitude that is too bright for its mass (suggesting brightening by star formation) and/or a low maximum rotational velocity for its luminosity (suggesting tidal stripping). These galaxies are outside the Tully Fisher relation at the 1 sigma level, even when the minimum acceptable values of inclinations are used to compute their maximum velocities. Including such galaxies with nu < 100 km s(-1) in the determination of the zero point and slope of the compact group B-band Tully-Fisher relation would strongly change the fit, making it different from the relation for field galaxies, which has to be kept in mind when studying scaling relations of interacting galaxies, especially at high redshifts.

Insights on the Milky Way bulge formation from the correlations between kinematics and metallicity

Context. Two main scenarios for the formation of the Galactic bulge are invoked, the first one through gravitational collapse or hierarchical merging of subclumps, the second through secular evolution of the Galactic disc. Aims. We aim to constrain the formation of the Galactic bulge through studies of the correlation between kinematics and metallicities in Baade's Window (l = 1 degrees, b = -4 degrees) and two other fields along the bulge minor axis (l = 0 degrees, b = -6 degrees and b = -12 degrees). Methods. We combine the radial velocity and the [Fe/H] measurements obtained with FLAMES/GIRAFFE at the VLT with a spectral resolution of R = 20 000, plus for the Baade's Window field the OGLE-II proper motions, and compare these with published N-body simulations of the Galactic bulge. Results. We confirm the presence of two distinct populations in Baade's Window found in Hill et al. (2010, A&A, submitted): the metal-rich population presents bar-like kinematics while the metal-poor population shows kinematics corresponding to an old spheroid or a thick disc. In this context the metallicity gradient along the bulge minor axis observed by Zoccali et al. (2008, A&A, 486, 177), visible also in the kinematics, can be related to a varying mix of these two populations as one moves away from the Galactic plane, alleviating the apparent contradiction between the kinematic evidence of a bar and the existence of a metallicity gradient. Conclusions. We show evidence that the two main scenarios for the bulge formation co-exist within the Milky Way bulge.

Constraints on cold dark matter accelerating cosmologies and cluster formation

We discuss the properties of homogeneous and isotropic flat cosmologies in which the present accelerating stage is powered only by the gravitationally induced creation of cold dark matter (CCDM) particles (Omega(m) = 1). For some matter creation rates proposed in the literature, we show that the main cosmological functions such as the scale factor of the universe, the Hubble expansion rate, the growth factor, and the cluster formation rate are analytically defined. The best CCDM scenario has only one free parameter and our joint analysis involving baryonic acoustic oscillations + cosmic microwave background (CMB) + SNe Ia data yields (Omega) over tilde = 0.28 +/- 0.01 (1 sigma), where (Omega) over tilde (m) is the observed matter density parameter. In particular, this implies that the model has no dark energy but the part of the matter that is effectively clustering is in good agreement with the latest determinations from the large- scale structure. The growth of perturbation and the formation of galaxy clusters in such scenarios are also investigated. Despite the fact that both scenarios may share the same Hubble expansion, we find that matter creation cosmologies predict stronger small scale dynamics which implies a faster growth rate of perturbations with respect to the usual Lambda CDM cosmology. Such results point to the possibility of a crucial observational test confronting CCDM with Lambda CDM scenarios through a more detailed analysis involving CMB, weak lensing, as well as the large-scale structure.

PRECESSING JETS AND X-RAY BUBBLES FROM NGC 1275 (3C 84) IN THE PERSEUS GALAXY CLUSTER: A VIEW FROM THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

The Perseus galaxy cluster is known to present multiple and misaligned pairs of cavities seen in X-rays, as well as twisted kiloparsec-scale jets at radio wavelengths; both morphologies suggest that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) jet is subject to precession. In this work, we performed three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between a precessing AGN jet and the warm intracluster medium plasma, whose dynamics are coupled to a Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter gravitational potential. The AGN jet inflates cavities that become buoyantly unstable and rise up out of the cluster core. We found that under certain circumstances precession can originate multiple pairs of bubbles. For the physical conditions in the Perseus cluster, multiple pairs of bubbles are obtained for a jet precession opening angle >40 degrees acting for at least three precession periods, reproducing both radio and X-ray maps well. Based on such conditions, assuming that the Bardeen-Peterson effect is dominant, we studied the evolution of the precession opening angle of this system. We were able to constrain the ratio between the accretion disk and the black hole angular momenta as 0.7-1.4. We were also able to constrain the present precession angle to 30 degrees-40 degrees, as well as the approximate age of the inflated bubbles to 100-150 Myr.