Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

NK1 receptor stimulation causes contraction and inositol phosphate increase in medium-size human isolated bronchi

Although contraction of human isolated bronchi is mediated mainly by tachykinin NK2 receptors, NK1 receptors, via prostanoid release, contract small-size (approximately 1 mm in diameter) bronchi. Here, we have investigated the presence and biological responses of NK1 receptors in medium-size (2-5 mm in diameter) human isolated bronchi. Specific staining was seen in bronchial sections with an antibody directed against the human NK1 receptor. The selective NK1 receptor agonist, [Sar(9), Met(O2)(11)]SP, contracted about 60% of human isolated bronchial rings. This effect was reduced by two different NK1 receptor antagonists, CP-99,994 and SR 140333. Contraction induced by [Sar(9), Met(O2)(11)]SP was independent of acetylcholine and histamine release and epithelium removal, and was not affected by nitric oxide synthase and cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibition. [Sar(9), Met(O2)(11)]SP increased inositol phosphate (IP) levels, and SR 140333 blocked this increase, in segments of medium- and small-size (approximately 1 mm in diameter) human bronchi. COX inhibition blocked the IP increase induced by [Sar(9), Met(O2)(11)]SP in small-size, but not in medium-size, bronchi. NK1 receptors mediated bronchoconstriction in a large proportion of medium-size human bronchi. Unlike small-size bronchi this effect is independent of prostanoid release, and the results are suggestive of a direct activation of smooth muscle receptors and IP release.

Reliability comparison of transmit/receive diversity and error control coding in low-power medium access control protocols

Low-power medium access control (MAC) protocols used for communication of energy constraint wireless embedded devices do not cope well with situations where transmission channels are highly erroneous. Existing MAC protocols discard corrupted messages which lead to costly retransmissions. To improve transmission performance, it is possible to include an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity. It is possible to add redundant information to transmitted packets in order to recover data from corrupted packets. It is also possible to make use of transmit/receive diversity via multiple antennas to improve error resiliency of transmissions. Both schemes may be used in conjunction to further improve the performance. In this study, the authors show how an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity can be integrated in low-power MAC protocols. Furthermore, the authors investigate the achievable performance gains of both methods. This is important as both methods have associated costs (processing requirements; additional antennas and power) and for a given communication situation it must be decided which methods should be employed. The authors’ results show that, in many practical situations, error control coding outperforms transmission diversity; however, if very high reliability is required, it is useful to employ both schemes together.

Improving transmission reliability of low-power medium access control protocols using average diversity combining

Embedded computer systems equipped with wireless communication transceivers are nowadays used in a vast number of application scenarios. Energy consumption is important in many of these scenarios, as systems are battery operated and long maintenance-free operation is required. To achieve this goal, embedded systems employ low-power communication transceivers and protocols. However, currently used protocols cannot operate efficiently when communication channels are highly erroneous. In this study, we show how average diversity combining (ADC) can be used in state-of-the-art low-power communication protocols. This novel approach improves transmission reliability and in consequence energy consumption and transmission latency in the presence of erroneous channels. Using a testbed, we show that highly erroneous channels are indeed a common occurrence in situations, where low-power systems are used and we demonstrate that ADC improves low-power communication dramatically.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

Synapses in digital medium: computational investigations of neural basis of anticipation

Anticipation is an emerging concept that can provide a bridge between the deepest philosophical theories about the nature of life and cognition on one hand and the empirical biological sciences steeped in reductionist and Newtonian conception of causality. Three conceptions of anticipation have been emerging from the literature that may be operationalised in a way leading to a viable empirical programme. The discussion of the research into a novel dynamical concept of anticipating synchronisation lends credence to such a possibility and suggests further links between the three anticipation paradigms. A careful progress mindful to the deep philosophical concerns but also respecting empirical evidence will ultimately lead towards unifying theoretical and empirical biological sciences and may offer progress where reductionist science have been so far faltering.

The use and impacts of bank support on UK small and medium-sized enterprises

This article examines an under-investigated area in relationship banking, i.e. the use of bank advice and support and its impacts on the financial conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The findings indicate that the characteristics of businesses and entrepreneurs, among other factors, have determinant effects on the use of bank support by SMEs when they make financial decisions. SMEs can alleviate the severity of their financial problems significantly by using bank support more fully, through developing long-term relationships with banks as primary network partners. The article further recognises the value of advice from banks as a substitute for entrepreneurial human capital, especially when bankers use private information to determine the nature and level of financial and non-financial assistance that they are prepared to supply to their clients.

Managing the complexity of information flow for construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs) using system dynamics and collaborative technologies

With the increase in e-commerce and the digitisation of design data and information,the construction sector has become reliant upon IT infrastructure and systems. The design and production process is more complex, more interconnected, and reliant upon greater information mobility, with seamless exchange of data and information in real time. Construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs), in particular,the speciality contractors, can effectively utilise cost-effective collaboration-enabling technologies, such as cloud computing, to help in the effective transfer of information and data to improve productivity. The system dynamics (SD) approach offers a perspective and tools to enable a better understanding of the dynamics of complex systems. This research focuses upon system dynamics methodology as a modelling and analysis tool in order to understand and identify the key drivers in the absorption of cloud computing for CSMEs. The aim of this paper is to determine how the use of system dynamics (SD) can improve the management of information flow through collaborative technologies leading to improved productivity. The data supporting the use of system dynamics was obtained through a pilot study consisting of questionnaires and interviews from five CSMEs in the UK house-building sector.

Gulliver, medium, technique

In the four Parts of Gulliver’s Travels the narrator attends closely to the manual skills, crafts and techniques of the different countries visited and to the materials and instruments by which they are mediated. The patterned, motif-like presentation of these observations and their rich contextual background, historical and literary, indicate their special significance. These references to technique play an important, previously underappreciated roll in Gulliver. They form a thematic connection between its embodied, sensual, compulsive descriptions of the world and its socio-political satire, the latter focusing on technocratic, professionalized statecraft. They are crucial to the peculiar fullness with which Swift’s writing imagines different communities of practice, different ecologies of mind.

e-Leadership through strategic alignment: an empirical study of small and medium sized enterprises in the digital age

Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the European economy. A critical challenge faced by SME leaders, as a consequence of the continuing digital technology revolution, is how to optimally align business strategy with digital technology to fully leverage the potential offered by these technologies in pursuit of longevity and growth. There is a paucity of empirical research examining how e-leadership in SMEs drives successful alignment between business strategy and digital technology fostering longevity and growth. To address this gap, in this paper we develop an empirically derived e-leadership model. Initially we develop a theoretical model of e-leadership drawing on strategic alignment theory. This provides a theoretical foundation on how SMEs can harness digital technology in support of their business strategy enabling sustainable growth. An in-depth empirical study was undertaken interviewing 42 successful European SME leaders to validate, advance and substantiate our theoretically driven model. The outcome of the two stage process – inductive development of a theoretically driven e-leadership model and deductive advancement to develop a complete model through in-depth interviews with successful European SME leaders – is an e-leadership model with specific constructs fostering effective strategic alignment. The resulting diagnostic model enables SME decision makers to exercise effective e-leadership by creating productive alignment between business strategy and digital technology improving longevity and growth prospects.

Morphological differentiation between S. mutans and S. sobrinus on modified SB-20 culture medium

Due to the major role of Streptococcus mutans and Streptococcus sobrinus in the etiology of dental caries, it is important to use culture media that allow for differentiating these bacterial species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of a modified SB-20 culture medium (SB-20M) for the isolation and morphological differentiation of S. mutans and S. sobrinus, compared to biochemical identification (biotyping). Saliva samples were collected using the spatula method from 145 children, seeded on plates containing the SB-20M, in which sucrose was replaced by coarse granular cane sugar, and incubated in microaerophilia at 37 degrees C during 72 h. Identification of the microorganisms was performed under stereomicroscopy based on colony morphology of 4904 colonies. The morphological identification was examined by biochemical tests of 94 randomly selected colonies with the macroscopic characteristic of S. mutans and S. sobrinus using sugar fermentation, resistance to bacitracin and production of hydrogen peroxide. There was no statistically significant difference (p> 0.05) between morphological identification in the SB-20M medium and biochemical identification (biotyping). Biotyping confirmed that S. mutans and S. sobrinus colonies were correctly characterized in the SB-20M in 95.8% and 95.5% of the cases, respectively. Of the mutans streptococci detected in the children 98% were S. mutans and 2% S. sobrinus. The SB-20M medium is reliable for detection and direct morphological identification of S. mutans and S. sobrinus. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.