Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Errors associated with preparation of adult and paediatric parenteral nutrition in UK hospital pharmacies

Rationale: In UK hospitals, the preparation of all total parenteral nutrition (TPN) products must be made in the pharmacy as TPNs are categorised as high-risk injectables (NPSA/2007/20). The National Aseptic Error Reporting Scheme has been collecting data on pharmacy compounding errors in the UK since August 2003. This study reports on types of error associated with the preparation of TPNs, including the stage at which these were identified and potential and actual patient outcomes. Methods: Reports of compounding errors for the period 1/2004 - 3/2007 were analysed on an Excel spreadsheet. Results: Of a total of 3691 compounding error reports, 674 (18%) related to TPN products; 548 adult vs. 126 paediatric. A significantly higher proportion of adult TPNs (28% vs. 13% paediatric) were associated with labelling errors and a significantly higher proportion of paediatric TPNs (25% vs. 15% adult) were associated with incorrect transcriptions (Chi-Square Test; p<0.005). Labelling errors were identified equally by pharmacists (42%) and technicians (48%) with technicians detecting mainly at first check and pharmacists at final check. Transcription errors were identified mainly by technicians (65% vs. 27% pharmacist) at first check. Incorrect drug selection (13%) and calculation errors (9%) were associated with adult and paediatric TPN preparations in the same ratio. One paediatric TPN error detected at first check was considered potentially catastrophic; 31 (5%) errors were considered of major and 38 (6%) of moderate potential consequence. Five errors (2 moderate, 1 minor) were identified during or after administration. Conclusions: While recent UK patient safety initiatives are aimed at improving the safety of injectable medicines in clinical areas, the current study highlights safety problems that exist within pharmacy production units. This could be used in the creation of an error management tool for TPN compounding processes within hospital pharmacies.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and administration system on prescribing errors, administration errors and staff time: a before-and-after study

Objectives: To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and electronic medication administration record (EMAR) system on prescribing and administration errors, confirmation of patient identity before administration, and staff time. Design, setting and participants: Before-and-after study in a surgical ward of a teaching hospital, involving patients and staff of that ward. Intervention: Closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and EMAR system. Main outcome measures: Percentage of new medication orders with a prescribing error, percentage of doses with medication administration errors (MAEs) and percentage given without checking patient identity. Time spent prescribing and providing a ward pharmacy service. Nursing time on medication tasks. Results: Prescribing errors were identified in 3.8% of 2450 medication orders pre-intervention and 2.0% of 2353 orders afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). MAEs occurred in 7.0% of 1473 non-intravenous doses pre-intervention and 4.3% of 1139 afterwards (p = 0.005; χ2 test). Patient identity was not checked for 82.6% of 1344 doses pre-intervention and 18.9% of 1291 afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). Medical staff required 15 s to prescribe a regular inpatient drug pre-intervention and 39 s afterwards (p = 0.03; t test). Time spent providing a ward pharmacy service increased from 68 min to 98 min each weekday (p = 0.001; t test); 22% of drug charts were unavailable pre-intervention. Time per drug administration round decreased from 50 min to 40 min (p = 0.006; t test); nursing time on medication tasks outside of drug rounds increased from 21.1% to 28.7% (p = 0.006; χ2 test). Conclusions: A closed-loop electronic prescribing, dispensing and barcode patient identification system reduced prescribing errors and MAEs, and increased confirmation of patient identity before administration. Time spent on medication-related tasks increased.

Modeling distributions of immediate memory effects: No strategies needed?

Many models of immediate memory predict the presence or absence of various effects, but none have been tested to see whether they predict an appropriate distribution of effect sizes. The authors show that the feature model (J. S. Nairne, 1990) produces appropriate distributions of effect sizes for both the phonological confusion effect and the word-length effect. The model produces the appropriate number of reversals, when participants are more accurate with similar items or long items, and also correctly predicts that participants performing less well overall demonstrate smaller and less reliable phonological similarity and word-length effects and are more likely to show reversals. These patterns appear within the model without the need to assume a change in encoding or rehearsal strategy or the deployment of a different storage buffer. The implications of these results and the wider applicability of the distributionmodeling approach are discussed.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Errors in "Wavefunctions for the methane molecule"

Two errors in my paper “Wave functions for the methane molecule” [1] are corrected. They concern my f-harmonic approximation to the wave-function in the equilibrium configuration, for which the final expression for the wave function, the energy lowering, and the density function were all in error.

Plant chemistry and aphid parasitoids (Hymenoptera : Braconidae): Imprinting and memory

Emerging parasitoids of aphids encounter secondary plant chemistry from cues left by the mother parasitoid at oviposition and from the plant-feeding of the host aphid. In practice, however, it is secondary plant cheinistry oil the Surface of the aphid mummy which influences parasitoid olfactory behaviour. Offspring of Aphidius colemani reared oil Myzus persicae on artificial diet did no distinguish between the odours of bean and cabbage, but showed a clear preference for cabbage odour if sinigrin had been painted oil the back of the mummy. Similarly Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on Metopolophium dirhodum on wheat preferred the odour of wheat plants grown near tomato plants to odour of wheat alone if the wheat plants oil which they had been reared had been exposed to the volatiles of nearby tomato plants. Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on M dirhodum, and removed from the mummy before emergence, showed a preference for the odour of a different wheat cultivar if they had contacted a mummy from that cultivar, and similar results were obtained with A. colemani naturally emerged from M. persicae mummies. Aphidius colemani emerged from mummies oil one crucifer were allowed to contact in sequence (for 45 min each) mummies from two different crucifers. The mumber of attacks made in 10 min oil M. persicae was always significantly higher when aphids were feeding oil the same plant as the origin of the last MUMMY offered, or oil the second plant if aphids feeding on the third plant were not included. Chilling emerged A. colemani for 24 h at 5 degrees C appeared to erase the imprint of secondary plant chemistry, and they no longer showed host plant odour preferences in the olfactometer. When the parasitoids were chilled after three Successive mummy experiences, memory of the last experience appeared at least temporarily erased and preference was then shown for the chemistry of the second experience.

The internet, information architecture and community memory

This article reviews current technological developments, particularly Peer-to-Peer technologies and Distributed Data Systems, and their value to community memory projects, particularly those concerned with the preservation of the cultural, literary and administrative data of cultures which have suffered genocide or are at risk of genocide. It draws attention to the comparatively good representation online of genocide denial groups and changes in the technological strategies of holocaust denial and other far-right groups. It draws on the author's work in providing IT support for a UK-based Non-Governmental Organization providing support for survivors of genocide in Rwanda.

The impact of flavonoids on memory: physiological and molecular considerations

Emerging evidence suggests that a group of dietary-derived phytochemicals known as flavonoids are able to induce improvements in memory acquisition, consolidation, storage and retrieval. These low molecular weight polyphenols are widespread in the human diet, are absorbed to only a limited degree and localise in the brain at low concentration. However, they have been found to be highly effective in reversing age-related declines in memory via their ability to interact with the cellular and molecular architecture of the brain responsible for memory. These interactions include an ability to activate signalling pathways, critical in controlling synaptic plasticity, and a potential to induce vascular effects capable of causing new nerve cell growth in the hippocampus. Their ability to activate the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK1/2) and the protein kinase B (PKB/Akt) signalling pathways, leading to the activation of the cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB), a transcription factor responsible for increasing the expression of a number of neurotrophins important in de. ning memory, will be discussed. How these effects lead to improvements in memory through induction of synapse growth and connectivity, increases in dendritic spine density and the functional integration of old and new neurons will be illustrated. The overall goal of this critical review is to emphasize future areas of investigation as well as to highlight these dietary agents as promising candidates for the design of memory-enhancing drugs with relevance to normal and pathological brain ageing (161 references).