Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Magmatic–hydrothermal molybdenum isotope fractionation and its relevance to the igneous crustal signature

We analysed the Mo isotope composition of a comprehensive series of molybdenite samples from the porphyry- type Questa deposit (NM, USA), as well as one rhyolite and one granite sample, directly associated with the Mo mineralization. The δ98Mo of the molybdenites ranges between −0.48‰ and +0.40‰, with a median at −0.05‰. The median Mo isotope composition increases from early magmatic (−0.29‰) to hydrothermal (−0.05‰) breccia mineralization (median bulk breccia = −0.17‰) to late stockwork veining (+0.22‰). Moreover, variations of up to 0.34‰ are found between different molybdenite crystals within an individual hand specimen. The rhyolite sample with 0.12 μg g−1 Mo has δ98Mo = −0.57‰ and is lighter than all molybde- nites from the Questa deposit, interpreted to represent the igneous leftover after aqueous ore fluid exsolution. We recognize three Mo isotope fractionation processes that occur between about 700 and 350 °C, affecting the Mo iso- tope composition of magmatic–hydrothermal molybdenites. Δ1Mo: Minerals preferentially incorporate light Mo isotopes during progressive fractional crystallization in subvolcanic magma reservoirs, leaving behind a melt enriched in heavy Mo isotopes. Δ2Mo: Magmatic–hydrothermal fluids preferentially incorporate heavy Mo iso- topes upon fluid exsolution. Δ3Mo: Light Mo isotopes get preferentially incorporated in molybdenite during crys- tallization from an aqueous fluid, leaving behind a hydrothermal fluid that gets heavier with progressive molybdenite crystallization. The sum of all three fractionation processes produces molybdenites that record heavier δ98Mo compositions than their source magmas. This implies that the mean δ98Mo of molybdenites published so far (~0.4‰) likely represents a maximum value for the Mo isotope composition of Phanerozoic igneous upper crust.

Magma differentiation fractionates Mo isotope ratios: Evidence from the Kos Plateau Tuff (Aegean Arc)

We investigated high temperature Mo isotope fractionation in a hydrous supra-subduction volcano-plutonic system (Kos, Aegean Arc, Greece) in order to address the debate on the δ98/95Mo variability of the continental crust. In this igneous system, where differentiation is interpreted to be dominated by fractional crystallization, bulk rock data from olivine basalt to dacite show δ98/95Mo ratios increasing from +0.3 to +0.6‰ along with Mo concentrations increasing from 0.8 to 4.1 μg g−1. Data for hornblende and biotite mineral separates reveal the extraction of light Mo into crystallizing silicates, with minimum partition coefficients between hornblende- silicate melt and biotite-silicate melt of 0.6 and 0.4 δ98/95Mo, respectively. Our data document significant Mo isotope fractionation at magmatic temperatures, hence, the igneous contribution to continental runoff is variable, besides probable source-related variability. Based on these results and published data an average continental δ98/95Mo of +0.3 to +0.4‰ can be derived. This signature corresponds more closely to the average of published data of dissolved Mo loads of large rivers than previous estimates and is consistent with an upper limit of δ98/95Mo = 0.4‰ of the Earth's upper crust as derived from the analysis of molybdenites.

The Wabar impact craters, Saudi Arabia, revisited

The very young Wabar craters formed by impact of an iron meteorite and are known to the scientific community since 1933. We describe field observations made during a visit to the Wabar impact site, provide analytical data on the material collected, and combine these data with poorly known information discovered during the recovery of the largest meteorites. During our visit in March 2008, only two craters (Philby-B and 11 m) were visible; Philby-A was completely covered by sand. Mapping of the ejecta field showed that the outcrops are strongly changing over time. Combining information from different visitors with our own and satellite images, we estimate that the large seif dunes over the impact site migrate by approximately 1.0–2.0 m yr␣1 southward. Shock lithification took place even at the smallest, 11 m crater, but planar fractures (PFs) and undecorated planar deformation features (PDFs), as well as coesite and stishovite, have only been found in shock-lithified material from the two larger craters. Shock-lithified dune sand material shows perfectly preserved sedimentary structures including cross-bedding and animal burrows as well as postimpact structures such as open fractures perpendicular to the bedding, slickensides, and radiating striation resembling shatter cones. The composition of all impact melt glasses can be explained as mixtures of aeolian sand and iron meteorite. We observed a partial decoupling of Fe and Ni in the black impact glass, probably due to partitioning of Ni into unoxidized metal droplets. The absence of a Ca-enriched component demonstrates that the craters did not penetrate the bedrock below the sand sheet, which has an estimated thickness of 20–30 m.

Core formation and mantle differentiation on Mars

Geochemical investigation of Martian meteorites (SNC meteorites) yields important constraints on the chemical and geodynamical evolution of Mars. These samples may not be representative of the whole of Mars; however, they provide constraints on the early differentiation processes on Mars. The bulk composition of Martian samples implies the presence of a metallic core that formed concurrently as the planet accreted. The strong depletion of highly siderophile elements in the Martian mantle is only possible if Mars had a large scale magma ocean early in its history allowing efficient separation of a metallic melt from molten silicate. The solidification of the magma ocean created chemical heterogeneities whose ancient origin is manifested in the heterogeneous 142Nd and 182W abundances observed in different meteorite groups derived from Mars. The isotope anomalies measured in SNC meteorites imply major chemical fractionation within the Martian mantle during the life time of the short-lived isotopes 146Sm and 182Hf. The Hf-W data are consistent with very rapid accretion of Mars within a few million years or, alternatively, a more protracted accretion history involving several large impacts and incomplete metal-silicate equilibration during core formation. In contrast to Earth early-formed chemical heterogeneities are still preserved on Mars, albeit slightly modified by mixing processes. The preservation of such ancient chemical differences is only possible if Mars did not undergo efficient whole mantle convection or vigorous plate tectonic style processes after the first few tens of millions of years of its history.

Petrogenesis of rift-related tephrites, phonolites and trachytes (Central European Volcanic Province, Rhon, FRG): Constraints from Sr, Nd, Pb and O isotopes

The volcanic rocks of the Rhön area (Central European Volcanic Province, Germany) belong to a moderately alkali basaltic suite that is associated with minor tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, tephrites, phonolites and trachytes. Based on isotope sytematics (87Sr/86Sr: 0.7033–0.7042; 143Nd/144Nd: 0.51279–0.51287; 206Pb/204Pb: 19.1–19.5), the inferred parental magmas formed by variable degrees of partial melting of a common asthenospheric mantle source (EAR: European Asthenospheric Reservoir of Cebriá and Wilson, 1995). Tephrites, tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, phonolites and trachytes show depletions and enrichments in some trace elements (Sr, Ba, Nb, Zr, Y) indicating that they were generated by broadly similar differentiation processes that were dominated by fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene, amphibole, apatite and titaniferous magnetite ± plagioclase ± alkalifeldspar. The fractionated samples seem to have evolved by two distinct processes. One is characterized by pure fractional crystallization indicated by increasing Nb (and other incompatible trace element) concentrations at virtually constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280 and 87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.7035. The other process involved an assimilation–fractional crystallization (AFC) process where moderate assimilation to crystallization rates produced evolved magmas characterized by higher Nb concentrations at slightly lower 143Nd/144Nd down to 0.51275. Literature data for some of the evolved rocks show more variable 87Sr/86Sr ranging from 0.7037 to 0.7089 at constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280. These features may result from assimilation of upper crustal rocks by highly differentiated low-Sr (< 100 ppm Sr) lavas. However, based on the displacement of the differentiated rocks from this study towards lower 143Nd/144Nd ratios and modeled AFC processes in 143Nd/144Nd vs. 87Sr/86Sr and 207Pb/204Pb vs. 143Nd/144Nd space assimilation of lower crustal rocks seems more likely. The view that assimilation of lower crustal rocks played a role is confirmed by high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data that reveal higher 207Pb/204Pb ratios (15.62–15.63) in the differentiated rocks than in the primitive basanites (15.58–15.61). This is compatible with incorporation of radiogenic Pb from lower crustal xenoliths (207Pb/204Pb: 15.63–15.69) into the melt. However, 206Pb/204Pb ratios are similar for the differentiated rocks (19.13–19.35) and the primitive basanites (19.12–19.55) implying that assimilation involved an ancient crustal end member with a higher U/Pb ratio than the mantle source of the basanites. In addition, alteration-corrected δ18O values of the differentiated rocks range from c. 5 to 7‰ which is the same range as observed in the primitive alkaline rocks. This study confirms previous interpretations that highlighted the role of AFC processes in the evolution of alkaline volcanic rocks in the Rhön area of the Central European Volcanic Province.

Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

Holtite and Dumortierite from the Szklary Pegmatite, Lower Silesia, Poland

The Szklary holtite is represented by three compositional varieties: (I) Ta-bearing (up to 14.66 wt.% Ta(2)O(5)), which forms homogeneous crystals and cores within zoned crystals; (2) Ti-bearing (up to 3.82 wt.% TiO(2)), found as small domains within the core; and (3) Nb-bearing (up to 5.30 wt.% Nb(2)O(5),) forming the rims of zoned crystals. All three varieties show variable Sb+As content, reaching 19.18 wt.% Sb(2)O(3) (0.87 Sb a.p.f.u.) and 3.30 wt.% As(2)O(3) (0.22 As a.p.f.u.) in zoned Ta-bearing holtite, which constitutes the largest Sb+As content reported for the mineral. The zoning in holtite is a result of Ta-Nb fractionation in the parental pegmatite-forming melt together with contamination of the relatively thin Szklary dyke by Fe, Mg and Ti. Holtite and the As- and Sb-bearing dumortierite, which in places overgrows the youngest Nb-bearing zone, suggest the following crystallization sequence: Ta-bearing holtite -> Ti-bearing holtite -> Nb-bearing holtite -> As- and Sb-bearing, (Ta,Nb,Ti)-poor dumortierite -> As- and Sb-dominant, (Ta,Nb,Ti)-free dumortierite-like mineral (16.81 wt.% As(2)O(3) and 10.23 wt.% Sb(2)O(3)) with (As+Sb) > Si. The last phase is potentially a new mineral species, Al(6)rectangle B(Sb,As)(3)O(15). or Al(5)rectangle(2)B(Sb,As)(3)O(12)(OH)(3), belonging to the dumortierite group. The Szklary holtite shows no evidence of clustering of compositions around 'holtite I' and 'holtite II'. Instead, the substitutions of Si(4+) by Sb(3+)+As(3+) at the Si/Sb sites and of Ta(5+) by Nb(5+) or Ti(4+) at the Al(l) site suggest possible solid solutions between: (1) (Sb,As)-poor and (Sb,As)-rich holtite; (2) dumortierite and the unnamed (As+Sb)-dominant dumortierite-like mineral; and (3) Ti-bearing dumortierite and holtite, i.e. our data provide further evidence for miscibility between holtite and dumortierite, but leave open the question of defining the distinction between them. The Szklary holtite crystallized from the melt along with other primary Ta-Nb-(Ti) minerals such as columbite-(Mn), tantalite-(Mn), stibiotantalite and stibiocolumbite as the availability of Ta decreased. The origin of the parental melt can be related to anatexis in the adjacent Sowie Mountains complex, leading to widespread migmatization and metamorphic segregation in pelitic-psammitic sediments metamorphosed at similar to 390-380 Ma.

Magma Extraction from the Mantle Wedge at Convergent Margins Through Dikes: A Parametric Sensitivity Analysis

We address under what conditions a magma generated by partial melting at 100 km depth in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone can reach the crust in dikes before stalling. We also address under what conditions primitive basaltic magma (Mg # >60) can be delivered from this depth to the crust. We employ linear elastic fracture mechanics with magma solidification theory and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis. All dikes are initiated at a depth of 100 km in the thermal core of the wedge, and the Moho is fixed at 35 km depth. We consider a range of melt solidus temperatures (800-1100 degrees C), viscosities (10-100 Pa s), and densities (2400-2700 kg m(-3)). We also consider a range of host rock fracture toughness values (50-300 MPa m(1/2)) and dike lengths (2-5 km) and two thermal structures for the mantle wedge (1260 and 1400 degrees C at 100 km depth and 760 and 900 degrees C at 35 km depth). For the given parameter space, many dikes can reach the Moho in less than a few hundred hours, well within the time constraints provided by U series isotope disequilibria studies. Increasing the temperature in the mantle wedge, or increasing the dike length, allows additional dikes to propagate to the Moho. We conclude that some dikes with vertical lengths near their critical lengths and relatively high solidus temperatures will stall in the mantle before reaching the Moho, and these may be returned by corner flow to depths where they can melt under hydrous conditions. Thus, a chemical signature in arc lavas suggesting partial melting of slab basalts may be partly influenced by these recycled dikes. Alternatively, dikes with lengths well above their critical lengths can easily deliver primitive magmas to the crust, particularly if the mantle wedge is relatively hot. Dike transport remains a viable primary mechanism of magma ascent in convergent tectonic settings, but the potential for less rapid mechanisms making an important contribution increases as the mantle temperature at the Moho approaches the solidus temperature of the magma.

Recent Increase in Black Carbon Concentrations from a Mt. Everest Ice Core Spanning 1860-2000 AD

A Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD and analyzed at high resolution for black carbon (BC) using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak concentrations during the winter-spring, and low concentrations during the summer monsoon season. BC concentrations from 1975-2000 relative to 1860-1975 have increased approximately threefold, indicating that BC from anthropogenic sources is being transported to high elevation regions of the Himalaya. The timing of the increase in BC is consistent with BC emission inventory data from South Asia and the Middle East, however since 1990 the ice core BC record does not indicate continually increasing BC concentrations. The Everest BC and dust records provide information about absorbing impurities that can contribute to glacier melt by reducing the albedo of snow and ice. There is no increasing trend in dust concentrations since 1860, and estimated surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow exceeds that of dust in snow. This suggests that a reduction in BC emissions may be an effective means to reduce the effect of absorbing impurities on snow albedo and melt, which affects Himalayan glaciers and the availability of water resources in major Asian rivers. Citation: Kaspari, S. D., M. Schwikowski, M. Gysel, M. G. Flanner, S. Kang, S. Hou, and P. A. Mayewski (2011), Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046096.

Elastic Uplift in Southeast Greenland Due to Rapid Ice Mass Loss

The rapid unloading of ice from the southeastern sector of the Greenland ice sheet between 2001 and 2006 caused an elastic uplift of similar to 35 mm at a GPS site in Kulusuk. Most of the uplift results from ice dynamic-induced volume losses on two nearby outlet glaciers. Volume loss from Helheim Glacier, calculated from sequential digital elevation models, contributes about similar to 16 mm of the observed uplift, with an additional similar to 5 mm from volume loss of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The remaining uplift signal is attributed to significant melt-induced ice volume loss from the ice sheet margin along the southeast coast between 62 degrees N and 66 degrees N.

Summer Temperature Trend Over the Past Two Millennia Using Air Content in Himalayan Ice

Two Himalayan ice cores display a factor-two decreasing trend of air content over the past two millennia, in contrast to the relatively stable values in Greenland and Antarctica ice cores over the same period. Because the air content can be related with the relative frequency and intensity of melt phenomena, its variations along the Himalayan ice cores provide an indication of summer temperature trend. Our reconstruction point toward an unprecedented warming trend in the 20th century but does not depict the usual trends associated with "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP), or "Little Ice Age" (LIA).

Oxygen Isotopic and Soluble Ionic Composition of a Shallow Firn Core, Inilchek Glacier, Central Tien Shan

Oxygen isotopic and soluble ionic measurements made on snow-pit (2 in depth) and firn-core (12.4 m depth samples recovered from the accumulation zone 5100 m) of Inilchek glacier 43degrees N, 79degrees E) provide information on recent (1992-98) climatic and environmental conditions in the central Tien Shan region of central Asia. The combined 14.4 m snow-pit/firn-core profile lies within the firn zone, arid contains only one observed melt feature (10 m temperature = - 12 degreesC), Although some post-depositional attenuation of the sub-seasonal delta(18)O record is possible, annual cycles are apparent throughout the isotope profile. We therefore use the preserved delta(18)O record to establish a depth/age scale for the core. Mean delta(18)O values for the entire core and for summer periods are consistent with delta(18)O/temperature observations, and suggest the delta(18)O record provides a means to reconstruct past changes in summer surface temperature at the site. Major-ion (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), NH(4)(+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)) data from the core demonstrate the dominant influence of dust deposition on the soluble chemistry at the site, arid indicate significant interannual variability in atmospheric-dust loading during the 1900s. Anthropogenic impacts oil NH(4)(+) concentrations are observed at the site, and suggest a summer increase in atmospheric NH(4)(+) that may be related to regional agricultural (nitrogen-rich fertilizer use activities.

Evidence for a Frozen Bed, Byrd Glacier, Antarctica

Ice thickness, computed within the fjord region of Byrd Glacier on the assumptions that Byrd Glacier is in mass-balance equilibrium and that ice velocity is entirely due to basal sliding, are on average 400 m less than measured ice thicknesses along a radio-echo profile. We consider four explanations for these differences: (1) active glacier ice is separated from a zone of stagnant ice near the base of the glacier by a shear zone at depth; (2) basal melting rates are some 8 m/yr; (3) internal shear occurs with no basal sliding in much of the region above the grounding zone; or (4) internal creep and basal sliding contribute to the flow velocity in varying proportions above the grounding zone. Large gradients of surface strain rate seem to invalidate the first explanation. Computed values of basal shear stress (140 to 200 kPa) provide insufficient frictional heat to melt the ice demanded by the second explanation. Both the third and fourth explanations were examined by making simplifying assumptions that prevented a truly quantitative evaluation of their merit. Nevertheless, there is no escaping the qualitative conclusion that internal shear contributes strongly to surface velocities measured on Byrd Glacier, as is postulated in both these explanations.

On the Disintegration of Ice Shelves: The Role of Fracture

Crevasses can be ignored in studying the dynamics of most glaciers because they are only about 20 m deep, a small fraction of ice thickness. In ice shelves, however, s urface crevasses 20 m deep often reach sealevel and bottom crevasses can move upward to sea-level (Clough, 1974; Weertman, 1980). The ice shelf is fractured completely through if surface and basal crevasses meet (Barrett, 1975; Hughes, 1979). This is especially likely if surface melt water fills surface crevasses (Weertman, 1973; Pfeffer, 1982; Fastook and Schmidt, 1982). Fracture may therefore play an important role i n the disintegration of ice shelves. Two fracture criteria which can be evaluated experimentally and applied to ice shelves, are presented. Fracture is then examined for the general strain field of an ice shelf and for local strain fields caused by shear rupture alongside ice streams entering the ice shelf, fatigue rupture along ice shelf grounding lines, and buckling up-stream from ice rises. The effect of these fracture patterns on the stability of Antarctic ice shelves and the West Antarctic ice sheet is then discussed.