Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

The Employment Precariousness Scale (EPRES): psychometric properties of a new tool for epidemiological studies among waged and salaried workers

Background: Despite the fact that labour market flexibility has resulted in an expansion of precarious employment in industrialized countries, to date there is limited empirical evidence about its health consequences. The Employment Precariousness Scale (EPRES) is a newly developed, theory-based, multidimensional questionnaire specifically devised for epidemiological studies among waged and salaried workers. Objective: To assess acceptability, reliability and construct validity of EPRES in a sample of waged and salaried workers in Spain. Methods: Cross-sectional study, using a sub-sample of 6.968 temporary and permanent workers from a population-based survey carried out in 2004-2005. The survey questionnaire was interviewer administered and included the six EPRES subscales, measures of the psychosocial work environment (COPSOQ ISTAS21), and perceived general and mental health (SF-36). Results: A high response rate to all EPRES items indicated good acceptability; Cronbach’s alpha coefficients, over 0.70 for all subscales and the global score, demonstrated good internal consistency reliability; exploratory factor analysis using principal axis analysis and varimax rotation confirmed the six-subscale structure and the theoretical allocation of all items. Patterns across known groups and correlation coefficients with psychosocial work environment measures and perceived health demonstrated the expected relations, providing evidence of construct validity. Conclusions: Our results provide evidence in support of the psychometric properties of EPRES, which appears to be a promising tool for the measurement of employment precariousness in public health research.

Validation française de l'échelle d'expérience temporelle du plaisir [Validation of the Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale (TEPS) in a French-speaking environment.]

INTRODUCTION: Anhedonia is defined as a diminished capacity to experience pleasant emotion and is commonly included among the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. However, if patients report experiencing a lower level of pleasure than controls, they report experiencing as much pleasure as controls with online measurements of emotion. OBJECTIVE: The Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale (TEPS) measures pleasure experienced in the moment and in anticipation of future activities. The TEPS is an 18-item self-report measurement of anticipatory (10 items) and consummatory (eight items) pleasure. The goal of this paper is to assess the psychometric characteristics of the French translation of this scale. METHODS: A control sample was composed of 60 women and 22 men, with a mean age of 38.1 years (S.D.: 10.8). Thirty-six were without qualification and 46 with qualified professional diploma. A sample of 21 patients meeting DSM IV-TR criteria for schizophrenia was recruited among the community psychiatry service of the department of psychiatry in Lausanne. They were five women and 16 men; mean age was of 34.1 years (S.D.: 7.5). Ten obtained a professional qualification and 11 were without qualification. None worked in competitive employment. Their mean dose of chlorpromazine equivalent was 431mg (S.D.: 259). All patients were on atypical antipsychotics. The control sample fulfilled the TEPS and the Physical Anhedonia Scale (PAS). The patient sample fulfilled the TEPS and was independently rated on the Calgary Depression Scale and the Scale for Assessment of Negative Symptoms. For comparison with controls, patients were matched on age, sex and professional qualification. This required the supplementary recruitment of two control subjects. RESULTS: Results with the control sample indicate that the TEPS presents an acceptable internal validity with Crombach alphas of 0.84 for the total scale, 0.74 for the anticipatory pleasure scale and 0.79 for the consummatory pleasure scale. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the model is well adapted to our data (chi(2)/dl=1.333; df=134; p<0.0006; root mean square residual, RMSEA=0.064). External validity measured with the PAS showed R=-0.27 (p<0.05) for the consummatory scale and R=-0.26 for the total score. Comparisons between patients and matched controls indicated that patients were significantly lower than control on anticipatory pleasure (t=2.7, df(40), 2-tailed p=0.01; cohen's d=0.83) and on total score of the TEPS (t=2.8, df (40), 2-tailed p=0.01; cohen's d=0.87). The two samples did not differ on consummatory pleasure. The anticipatory pleasure factor and the total TEPS showed significant negative correlation with the SANS anhedonia, respectively R=-0.78 (p<0.01) for the anticipatory factor and R=-0.61 (p<0.01) for the total TEPS. There was also a negative correlation between the anticipatory factor and the SANS avolition of R=-0.50 (p<0.05). These correlations were maintained, with partial correlations controlling for depression and chlorpromazine equivalents. CONCLUSION: The results of this validation show that the French version of the TEPS has psychometric characteristics similar to the original version. These results highlight the discrepancy between results of direct or indirect report of experienced pleasure in patients with schizophrenia. Patients may have difficulties in anticipating the pleasure of future enjoyable activities, but not in experiencing pleasure once in an enjoyable activity. Medication and depression do not seems to modify our results, but this should be better controlled in a longitudinal study. The anticipatory versus consummatory pleasure distinction appears to be useful for the development of new psychosocial interventions, tailored to improve desire in patients suffering from schizophrenia. Major limitations of the study are the small size of patient sample and the under representation of men in the control sample.

Optimum power allocation for parallel Gaussian channels with arbitrary input distributions

The mutual information of independent parallel Gaussian-noise channels is maximized, under an average power constraint, by independent Gaussian inputs whose power is allocated according to the waterfilling policy. In practice, discrete signalling constellations with limited peak-to-average ratios (m-PSK, m-QAM, etc) are used in lieu of the ideal Gaussian signals. This paper gives the power allocation policy that maximizes the mutual information over parallel channels with arbitrary input distributions. Such policy admits a graphical interpretation, referred to as mercury/waterfilling, which generalizes the waterfilling solution and allows retaining some of its intuition. The relationship between mutual information of Gaussian channels and nonlinear minimum mean-square error proves key to solving the power allocation problem.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Diagnosis of muscular dystrophies at the nanometer scale

The diagnosis of muscular dystrophies or the assessment of the functional benefit of gene or cell therapies can be difficult, especially for poorly accessible muscles, and it often lacks a singlefiber resolution. In the present study, we evaluated whether muscle diseases can be diagnosed from small biopsies using atomic force microscopy (AFM). AFM was shown to provide a sensitive and quantitative description of the resistance of normal and dystrophic myofibers within live muscle tissues explanted from Duchenne mdx mice. The rescue of dystrophin expression by gene therapy approaches led to the functional recovery of treated dystrophic muscle fibers, as probed using AFM and by in situ wholemuscle strength measurements. Comparison of muscles treated with viral or non-viral vectors indicated that the efficacy of the gene transfer approaches could be distinguished with a single myofiber resolution. This indicated full correction of the resistance to deformation in nearly all of the muscle fibers treated with an adeno-associated viral vector that mediates exon-skipping on the dystrophin mRNA. Having shown that AFM can provide a quantitative assessment of the expression of muscle proteins and of the muscular function in animal models, we assessed myofiber resistance in the context of human muscular dystrophies and myopathies. Thus, various forms of human Becker syndrome can also be detected using AFM in blind studies of small frozen biopsies from human patients. Interestingly, it also allowed the detection of anomalies in a fraction of the muscle fibers from patients showing a muscle weakness that could not be attributed to a known molecular or genetic defect. Overall, we conclude that AFM may provide a useful method to complement current diagnosis tools of known and unknown muscular diseases, in research and in a clinical context.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

How does the body-scale model affect back-calculated growth: the example of arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

When back-calculating fish length from scale measurements, the choice of the body-scale relationship is a fundamental step. Using data from the arctic charrSalvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) we show the need for a curvilinear model, on both statistical and biological grounds. From several 2-parameters models, the log-linear relationship appears to provide the best fit. A 3-parameters, Bertalanffy model did not improve the fit. We show moreover that using the proportional model would lead to important misinterpretations of the data.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Clinical Learning Environment and Supervision. Development and Validation of the CLES Evaluation Scale

The purpose of the study is: (1) to describe how nursing students' experienced their clinical learning environment and the supervision given by staff nurses working in hospital settings; and (2) to develop and test an evaluation scale of Clinical Learning Environment and Supervision (CLES). The study has been carried out in different phases. The pilot study (n=163) explored the association between the characteristics of a ward and its evaluation as a learning environment by students. The second version of research instrument (which was developed by the results of this pilot study) were tested by an expert panel (n=9 nurse teachers) and test-retest group formed by student nurses (n=38). After this evaluative phase, the CLES was formed as the basic research instrument for this study and it was tested with the Finnish main sample (n=416). In this phase, a concurrent validity instrument (Dunn & Burnett 1995) was used to confirm the validation process of CLES. The international comparative study was made by comparing the Finnish main sample with a British sample (n=142). The international comparative study was necessary for two reasons. In the instrument developing process, there is a need to test the new instrument in some other nursing culture. Other reason for comparative international study is the reflecting the impact of open employment markets in the European Union (EU) on the need to evaluate and to integrate EU health care educational systems. The results showed that the individualised supervision system is the most used supervision model and the supervisory relationship with personal mentor is the most meaningful single element of supervision evaluated by nursing students. The ward atmosphere and the management style of ward manager are the most important environmental factors of the clinical ward. The study integrates two theoretical elements - learning environment and supervision - in developing a preliminary theoretical model. The comparative international study showed that, Finnish students were more satisfied and evaluated their clinical placements and supervision with higher scores than students in the United Kingdom (UK). The difference between groups was statistical highly significant (p= 0.000). In the UK, clinical placements were longer but students met their nurse teachers less frequently than students in Finland. Arrangements for supervision were similar. This research process has produced the evaluation scale (CLES), which can be used in research and quality assessments of clinical learning environment and supervision in Finland and in the UK. CLES consists of 27 items and it is sub-divided into five sub-dimensions. Cronbach's alpha coefficient varied from high 0.94 to marginal 0.73. CLES is a compact evaluation scale and user-friendliness makes it suitable for continuing evaluation.

Adaptação cultural e validação da Underwood's Daily Spiritual Experience Scale - versão brasileira

Este estudo objetivou adaptar culturalmente e analisar as propriedades psicométricas da versão brasileira da Underwood's Daily Spiritual Experience Scale (DSES). A adaptação seguiu as etapas internacionalmente recomendadas e a versão adaptada manteve equivalência com a original, após ajustes na redação de cinco itens. Na aplicação a 179 pacientes médico-cirúrgicos mostrou evidências de consistência interna (alfa de Cronbach=0,91), estabilidade temporal (ICC=0,94 no teste e reteste) e validade de construto convergente, na correlação com a subescala Religiosidade Intrínseca do instrumento DUREL (r=0,56; p<0,001). A análise fatorial exploratória extraiu três componentes, explicando 60,5% da variância do total. A versão brasileira da DSES apresenta evidências de confiabilidade e validade junto a pacientes hospitalizados. São necessários mais estudos para confirmar a sua composição fatorial e testar a sua aplicabilidade em diferentes populações.