Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual-based model (IBM) for the simulation of year-to-year survival during the early life-history stages of the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf-Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post-larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age-0/age-1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter-annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.

Is observed variability in the long-term results of the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey a response to climate change?

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Chemical Variability In The Tamar Estuary Southwest England

Procedures for the continuous in situ recording of salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH and turbidity throughout an estuarine mixing profile have been developed. Application of these procedures in a study of the Tamar Estuary, south-west England has demonstrated the considerable temporal (short-term and seasonal) and geographical variability of these properties. The causes and interrelationships of this variability and their general implications with respect to field investigations of estuarine chemical interactions are discussed.

Variability In Abundance Vertical-Distribution And Ontogenetic Migrations Of Thysanoessa-Longicaudata (Crustacea Euphausiacea) In The Northeastern Atlantic-Ocean

The vertical distribution, seasonal and ontogenetic migrations and seasonal variability in abundance of Thysanoessa longicaudata (Krøyer) were investigated using the Longhurst-Hardy Plankton Recorder for a 4 yr period (March, 1971 to May, 1975) at Ocean Weather Station “I” (59°00′N; 19°00′W) in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean. Of 8 species of euphausiids identified at this position, the vast majority were T. longicaudata (for example, 99.5% of the total euphausiids in 1972 belonged to this species). From March to October the majority of calyptopes, furciliae and adults of T. longicaudata were found in the upper 100 m. The major spawning occurred in spring at a water temperature of 9° to 10°C and calyptopes and furciliae appeared in late April, reaching their maximum abundance in May. There was no evidence of large-scale diurnal migrations, although an extensive ontogenetic migration of young developmental stages was observed. The eggs were found from 100 m down to 800 m, the maximum depth of sampling, and the vertical distribution of the three naupliar stages showed a “developmental ascent” as they matured. During the main reproductive period in May, over 70% of all nauplii were below 500 m while more than 94% of Calyptopis Stage I were above 500 m with their maximum abundance in the euphotic zone (0 to 50 m). Calyptopis Stage I is the first feeding stage and it is this stage which shows the largest ontogenetic migration. Brief descriptions of the egg and nauplii are given.