893 resultados para MORTALITY RISK
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been associated with exposures in so-called 'electrical occupations'. It is unclear if this possible link may be explained by exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) or by electrical shocks. We evaluated ALS mortality in 2000-2008 and exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks in the Swiss National Cohort, using job exposure matrices for occupations at censuses 1990 and 2000. We compared 2.2 million workers with high or medium vs. low exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks using Cox proportional hazard models. Results showed that mortality from ALS was higher in people who had medium or high ELF-MF exposure in both censuses (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.11-2.15)), but closer to unity for electrical shocks (HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.83-1.65)). When both exposures were included in the same model, the HR for ELF-MF changed little (HR 1.56), but the HR for electric shocks was attenuated to 0.97. In conclusion, there was an association between exposure to ELF-MF and mortality from ALS among workers with a higher likelihood of long-term exposure.
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BACKGROUND Little is known as to whether negative emotions adversely impact the prognosis of patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of state negative affect (NA) assessed at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation for prognosis and the moderating role of positive affect (PA) on the effect of NA on outcomes. METHODS A total of 564 cardiac patients (62.49 ± 11.51) completed a comprehensive three-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, filling in the Global Mood Scale (GMS) at discharge. The combined endpoint was cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality at follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the predictive value of NA, as well as the moderating influence of PA on outcomes. Survival models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and severity of disease. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 3.4 years, 71 patients were hospitalized for a CVD-related event and 15 patients died. NA score (range 0-20) was a significant and independent predictor (hazard ratio (HR) 1.091, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-1.175; p = 0.023) with a three-point higher level in NA increasing the relative risk by 9.1%. Furthermore, PA interacted significantly with NA (p < 0.001). The relative risk of poor prognosis with NA was increased in patients with low PA (p = 0.012) but remained unchanged in combination with high PA (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION The combination of NA with low PA was particularly predictive of poor prognosis. Whether reduction of NA and increase of PA, particularly in those with high NA, improves outcome needs to be tested.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia METHODS: Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. RESULTS Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm(3) , and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71-10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21-1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31-1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.
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OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to investigate the survival effects of inferior vena cava filters in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) who had a significant bleeding risk. BACKGROUND The effectiveness of inferior vena cava filter use among patients with acute symptomatic VTE and known significant bleeding risk remains unclear. METHODS In this prospective cohort study of patients with acute VTE identified from the RIETE (Computerized Registry of Patients With Venous Thromboembolism), we assessed the association between inferior vena cava filter insertion for known significant bleeding risk and the outcomes of all-cause mortality, pulmonary embolism (PE)-related mortality, and VTE rates through 30 days after the initiation of VTE treatment. Propensity score matching was used to adjust for the likelihood of receiving a filter. RESULTS Of the 40,142 eligible patients who had acute symptomatic VTE, 371 underwent filter placement because of known significant bleeding risk. A total of 344 patients treated with a filter were matched with 344 patients treated without a filter. Propensity score-matched pairs showed a nonsignificant trend toward lower risk of all-cause death for filter insertion compared with no insertion (6.6% vs. 10.2%; p = 0.12). The risk-adjusted PE-related mortality rate was lower for filter insertion than no insertion (1.7% vs. 4.9%; p = 0.03). Risk-adjusted recurrent VTE rates were higher for filter insertion than for no insertion (6.1% vs. 0.6%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In patients presenting with VTE and with a significant bleeding risk, inferior vena cava filter insertion compared with anticoagulant therapy was associated with a lower risk of PE-related death and a higher risk of recurrent VTE. However, study design limitations do not imply a causal relationship between filter insertion and outcome.
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CONTEXT Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly with thyrotropin levels of 10.0 mIU/L or greater. The measurement of thyroid antibodies helps predict the progression to overt hypothyroidism, but it is unclear whether thyroid autoimmunity independently affects CHD risk. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to compare the CHD risk of subclinical hypothyroidism with and without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION A MEDLINE and EMBASE search from 1950 to 2011 was conducted for prospective cohorts, reporting baseline thyroid function, antibodies, and CHD outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION Individual data of 38 274 participants from six cohorts for CHD mortality followed up for 460 333 person-years and 33 394 participants from four cohorts for CHD events. DATA SYNTHESIS Among 38 274 adults (median age 55 y, 63% women), 1691 (4.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, of whom 775 (45.8%) had positive TPOAbs. During follow-up, 1436 participants died of CHD and 3285 had CHD events. Compared with euthyroid individuals, age- and gender-adjusted risks of CHD mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism were similar among individuals with and without TPOAbs [hazard ratio (HR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.53 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.01-1.58, P for interaction = .62], as were risks of CHD events (HR 1.16, CI 0.87-1.56 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.02-1.56, P for interaction = .65). Risks of CHD mortality and events increased with higher thyrotropin, but within each stratum, risks did not differ by TPOAb status. CONCLUSIONS CHD risk associated with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ by TPOAb status, suggesting that biomarkers of thyroid autoimmunity do not add independent prognostic information for CHD outcomes.
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BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.
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OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.
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BACKGROUND Anemia has been shown to be a risk factor for coronary artery disease and mortality. The involvement of body iron stores in the development of CAD remains controversial. So far, studies that examined hemoglobin and parameters of iron metabolism simultaneously do not exist. METHODS AND RESULTS Hemoglobin and iron status were determined in 1480 patients with stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and in 682 individuals in whom CAD had been ruled out by angiography. The multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin and iron were 1.62 (95%CI: 1.22-2.16), and 2.05 (95%CI: 1.51-2.78), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. The fully adjusted ORs for CAD in the lowest quartiles of transferrin saturation, ferritin (F) and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log10F index were 1.69 (95%CI: 1.25-2.27), 1.98 (95%CI: 1.48-2.65), and 1.64 (95%CI: 1.23-2.18), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. When adjusting in addition for iron and ferritin the OR for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin was still 1.40 (95%CI: 1.04-1.90) compared to the highest gender-specific quartiles. Thus, the associations between either iron status or low hemoglobin and CAD appeared independent from each other. The sTfR was only marginally associated with angiographic CAD. CONCLUSIONS Both low hemoglobin and iron depletion are independently associated with angiographic CAD.
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High concentrations of HDL cholesterol are considered to indicate efficient reverse cholesterol transport and to protect from atherosclerosis. However, HDL has been suggested to be dysfunctional in ESRD. Hence, our main objective was to investigate the effect of HDL cholesterol on outcomes in maintenance hemodialysis patients with diabetes. Moreover, we investigated the associations between the major protein components of HDL (apoA1, apoA2, and apoC3) and end points. We performed an exploratory, post hoc analysis with 1255 participants (677 men and 578 women) of the German Diabetes Dialysis study. The mean age was 66.3 years and the mean body mass index was 28.0 kg/m(2). The primary end point was a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The secondary end point included all-cause mortality. The mean duration of follow-up was 3.9 years. A total of 31.3% of the study participants reached the primary end point and 49.1% died from any cause. HDL cholesterol and apoA1 and apoC3 quartiles were not related to end points. However, there was a trend toward an inverse association between apoA2 and all-cause mortality. The hazard ratio for death from any cause in the fourth quartile compared with the first quartile of apoA2 was 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.89). The lack of an association between HDL cholesterol and cardiovascular risk may support the concept of dysfunctional HDL in hemodialysis. The possible beneficial effect of apoA2 on survival requires confirmation in future studies.
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OBJECTIVES Valve-sparing root replacement (VSRR) is thought to reduce the rate of thromboembolic and bleeding events compared with aortic root replacement using a mechanical aortic root replacement (MRR) with a composite graft by avoiding oral anticoagulation. But as VSRR carries a certain risk for subsequent reinterventions, decision-making in the individual patient can be challenging. METHODS Of 100 Marfan syndrome (MFS) patients who underwent 169 aortic surgeries and were followed at our institution since 1995, 59 consecutive patients without a history of dissection or prior aortic surgery underwent elective VSRR or MRR and were retrospectively analysed. RESULTS VSRR was performed in 29 (David n = 24, Yacoub n = 5) and MRR in 30 patients. The mean age was 33 ± 15 years. The mean follow-up after VSRR was 6.5 ± 4 years (180 patient-years) compared with 8.8 ± 9 years (274 patient-years) after MRR. Reoperation rates after root remodelling (Yacoub) were significantly higher than after the reimplantation (David) procedure (60 vs 4.2%, P = 0.01). The need for reinterventions after the reimplantation procedure (0.8% per patient-year) was not significantly higher than after MRR (P = 0.44) but follow-up after VSRR was significantly shorter (P = 0.03). There was neither significant morbidity nor mortality associated with root reoperations. There were no neurological events after VSRR compared with four stroke/intracranial bleeding events in the MRR group (log-rank, P = 0.11), translating into an event rate of 1.46% per patient-year following MRR. CONCLUSION The calculated annual failure rate after VSRR using the reimplantation technique was lower than the annual risk for thromboembolic or bleeding events. Since the perioperative risk of reinterventions following VSRR is low, patients might benefit from VSRR even if redo surgery may become necessary during follow-up.
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BACKGROUND No data exist on the patterns of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and their effect on survival in patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) treated with surgery. The aim of our investigation was to evaluate the natural history of PCa in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS Overall, 2,065 patients with high-risk PCa treated with RP at 7 tertiary referral centers between 1991 and 2011 were identified. First, we calculated the probability of experiencing BCR after surgery. Particularly, we relied on conditional survival estimates for BCR after RP. Competing-risks regression analyses were then used to evaluate the effect of time to BCR on the risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM). RESULTS Median follow-up was 70 months. Overall, the 5-year BCR-free survival rate was 55.2%. Given the BCR-free survivorship at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, the BCR-free survival rates improved by+7.6%,+4.1%,+4.8%,+3.2%, and+3.7%, respectively. Overall, the 10-year CSM rate was 14.8%. When patients were stratified according to time to BCR, patients experiencing BCR within 36 months from surgery had higher 10-year CSM rates compared with those experiencing late BCR (19.1% vs. 4.4%; P<0.001). At multivariate analyses, time to BCR represented an independent predictor of CSM (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Increasing time from surgery is associated with a reduction of the risk of subsequent BCR. Additionally, time to BCR represents a predictor of CSM in these patients. These results might help provide clinicians with better follow-up strategies and more aggressive treatments for early BCR.
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BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.
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BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.
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AIMS HIV infection may be associated with an increased recurrence rate of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to determine whether HIV infection is a risk factor for worse outcomes in patients with coronaray artery disease. METHODS We compared data aggregated from two ongoing cohorts: (i) the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS) registry, which includes patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and (ii) the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), a prospective registry of HIV-positive (HIV+) patients. We included all patients who survived an incident AMI occurring on or after 1st January 2005. Our primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at one year; secondary outcomes included AMI recurrence and cardiovascular-related hospitalisations. Comparisons used Cox and logistic regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS There were 133 HIV+, (SHCS) and 5,328 HIV-negative [HIV-] (AMIS) individuals with incident AMI. In the SHCS and AMIS registries, patients were predominantly male (72% and 85% male, respectively), with a median age of 51 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46-57) and 64 years (IQR 55-74), respectively. Nearly all (90%) of HIV+ individuals were on successful antiretroviral therapy. During the first year of follow-up, 5 (3.6%) HIV+ and 135 (2.5%) HIV- individuals died. At one year, HIV+ status after adjustment for age, sex, calendar year of AMI, smoking status, hypertension and diabetes was associated with a higher risk of death (HR 4.42, 95% CI 1.73-11.27). There were no significant differences in recurrent AMIs (4 [3.0%] HIV+ and 146 [3.0%] HIV- individuals, OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.41-3.27) or in hospitalization rates (OR 0.68 [95% CI 0.42-1.11]). CONCLUSIONS HIV infection was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality one year after incident AMI.