Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Computer simulations of sample preconcentration in carrier-free systems and isoelectric focusing in microchannels using simple ampholytes.

In this work, electrophoretic preconcentration of protein and peptide samples in microchannels was studied theoretically using the 1D dynamic simulator GENTRANS, and experimentally combined with MS. In all configurations studied, the sample was uniformly distributed throughout the channel before power application, and driving electrodes were used as microchannel ends. In the first part, previously obtained experimental results from carrier-free systems are compared to simulation results, and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide and impurities in the sample solution are examined. Simulation provided insight into the dynamics of the transport of all components under the applied electric field and revealed the formation of a pure water zone in the channel center. In the second part, the use of an IEF procedure with simple well defined amphoteric carrier components, i.e. amino acids, for concentration and fractionation of peptides was investigated. By performing simulations a qualitative description of the analyte behavior in this system was obtained. Neurotensin and [Glu1]-Fibrinopeptide B were separated by IEF in microchannels featuring a liquid lid for simple sample handling and placement of the driving electrodes. Component distributions in the channel were detected using MALDI- and nano-ESI-MS and data were in agreement with those obtained by simulation. Dynamic simulations are demonstrated to represent an effective tool to investigate the electrophoretic behavior of all components in the microchannel.

Field-Based Evaluations of Horizontal Flat-Plate Fish Screens

Diversions from streams are often screened to prevent the loss of or injury to fish. Hydraulic criteria meant to protect fish that encounter screens have been developed, but primarily for screens that are vertical to the water flow rather than horizontal. For this reason, we measured selected hydraulic variables and released wild rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss over two types of horizontal flat-plate fish screens in the field. Our goal was to assess the efficacy of these screens under a variety of conditions in the field and provide information that could be used to develop criteria for safe fish passage. We evaluated three different inverted-weir screens over a range of strewn (0.24-1.77 m(3)/s) and diversion flows (0.10-0.31 m(3)/s). Approach velocities (AVs) ranged from 3 to 8 cm/s and sweeping velocities (SVs) from 69 to 143 cm/s. We also evaluated a simple backwatered screen over stream flows of 0.23-0.79 m(3)/s and diversion flows of 0.08-0.32 m(3)/s. The mean SVs for this screen ranged from 15 to 66 cm/s and the mean AVs from 1 to 5 cm/s. The survival rates of fish held for 24 h after passage over these screens exceeded 98%. Overall, the number of fish-screen contacts was low and the injuries related to passage were infrequent and consisted primarily of minor fin injuries. Our results indicate that screens of this type have great potential as safe and effective fish screens for small diversions. Care must be taken, however, to avoid operating conditions that produce shallow or no water over the screen surface, situations of high AVs and low SVs at backwatered screens, and situations producing a localized high AV with spiraling flow.

A case-comparison interview study of brain tumors and employment in occupations with presumed electric and magnetic field exposures

Results from epidemiologic studies suggest that persons working in occupations with presumed electric and magnetic field (EMF) exposures are at increased risk of brain cancer. This study utilized data from a completed, population-based, interview case-control study of central nervous system (CNS) tumors and employment in the petrochemical industry to test the hypothesis that employment in EMF-related occupations increases CNS tumor risk. A total of 375 male residents of the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast Area, age 20 to 79, with primary neuroglial CNS tumors diagnosed during the period 1980-84 were identified. A population-based comparison group of 450 age, race and geographically matched males was selected. Occupational histories and potential risk factor data were collected via personal interviews with study subjects or their next-of-kin.^ Adjusted odds ratios were less than 1.0 for persons ever employed in an electrical occupation (OR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.40-1.09) or whose usual occupation was electrical (OR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.33-1.73). Relative risk estimates did not increase significantly as time since first employment or duration of employment increased. Examination of CNS tumor risk by high (OR = 0.80), medium (OR = 0.88) and low (OR = 0.45) exposure categories for persons whose usual occupation was electrical did not indicate a dose-response pattern. In addition, the mean age of exposed cases was not significantly younger than that for unexposed cases. Analysis of risk by probability of exposure to EMFs showed non-significant elevations in the adjusted odds ratio for definite exposed workers defined by their usual occupation (OR = 1.78; 95% CI = 0.70-4.51) and ever/never employed status (OR = 1.54; 95% CI = 0.17-4.91).^ These findings suggest that employment in occupations with presumed EMF exposures does not increase CNS tumor risk as was suggested by previous investigations. The results of this study also do not support the EMF-tumor promotion hypothesis. ^

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

Physical properties of firn cores from the 1995/96 and 1996/97 field seasons

The paper focuses on studies of snow-pit samples and shallow firn cores taken during the 1995-96 and 1996-97 field seasons at Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The dating of the firn is based on the artificial tritium distribution in the snow cover and on several reference horizons identified by electrical measurements. The early 1964 through 1965 horizon is marked by the deposition of sulfate released to the atmosphere during the eruption of the Agung volcano in March 1963; this horizon was detected by dielectric profiling and electrical conductivity measurements; the proof by chemical analysis has still to be seen. At the ten investigated sites on Amundsenisen the 1964-65 horizon was identified 4.1-5.7 m below the surface. The accumulation rates on Amundsenisen are 41-91 kg/m**2/a. The cores are up to 100 years old. A relationship between isotope content and the mean air temperature on a regional scale can be based on measurements of firn temperature at 10 m depth at the drilling sites. Between Neumayer station at the coast and Heimefrontfjella, the temperature gradient of the deuterium content is 9.6 per mil/K. South of Heimefrontfjella, on the Amundsenisen plateau, it is only 5.5 per mil/K. Time series of yearly accumulation rates show no significant trend. For the isotope records a significant trend to higher values with gradients of 0.1-0.2 d2H per mil/a can be seen in five of the ten time series.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

(Table 1) Contents of chlorophyll a over the Northern Sea Route according to data of field measurements and estimated from MODIS data on measurement days

New maps of mean monthly distribution of chlorophyll and primary production in the Kara Sea were compiled using joint processing of CZCS (1978-1986), SeaWiFS (1998-2005), and MODIS (2002-2006) satellite data and field measurements. The annual primary production of phytoplankton is estimated at 22.3 x 10**6 t C per year or 70 mg C/m**2 per day. Results of calculations of the organic carbon budget in the Kara Sea are presented.

Field measurements on Atka Bay landfast sea ice in 2012

Basal melt of ice shelves may lead to an accumulation of disc-shaped ice platelets underneath nearby sea ice, to form a sub-ice platelet layer. Here we present the seasonal cycle of sea ice attached to the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the underlying platelet layer in 2012. Ice platelets emerged from the cavity and interacted with the fast-ice cover of Atka Bay as early as June. Episodic accumulations throughout winter and spring led to an average platelet-layer thickness of 4 m by December 2012, with local maxima of up to 10 m. The additional buoyancy partly prevented surface flooding and snow-ice formation, despite a thick snow cover. Subsequent thinning of the platelet layer from December onwards was associated with an inflow of warm surface water. The combination of model studies with observed fast-ice thickness revealed an average ice-volume fraction in the platelet layer of 0.25 +/- 0.1. We found that nearly half of the combined solid sea-ice and ice-platelet volume in this area is generated by heat transfer to the ocean rather than to the atmosphere. The total ice-platelet volume underlying Atka Bay fast ice was equivalent to more than one-fifth of the annual basal melt volume under the Ekström Ice Shelf.

Seagrass and associated benthic community data derived from field surveys at Low Isles, Great Barrier Reef, conducted July-August, 1997

The distribution of seagrass and associated benthic communities on the reef and lagoon of Low Isles, Great Barrier Reef, was mapped between the 29 July and 29 August 1997. For this survey, observers walked or free-dived at survey points positioned approximately 50 m apart along a series of transects. Visual estimates of above-ground seagrass biomass and % cover of each benthos and substrate type were recorded at each survey point. A differential handheld global positioning system (GPS) was used to locate each survey point (accuracy ±3m). A total of 349 benthic survey points were examined. To assist with mapping meadow/habitat type boundaries, an additional 177 field points were assessed and a georeferenced 1:12,000 aerial photograph (26th August 1997) was used as a secondary source of information. Bathymetric data (elevation below Mean Sea Level) measured at each point assessed and from Ellison (1997) supplemented information used to determine boundaries, particularly in the subtidal lagoon. 127.8 ±29.6 hectares was mapped. Seagrass and associated benthic community data was derived by haphazardly placing 3 quadrats (0.25m**2) at each survey point. Seagrass above ground biomass (standing crop, grams dry weight (g DW m**-2)) was determined within each quadrat using a non-destructive visual estimates of biomass technique and the seagrass species present identified. In addition, the cover of all benthos was measured within each of the 3 quadrats using a systematic 5 point method. For each quadrat, frequency of occurrence for each benthic category was converted to a percentage of the total number of points (5 per quadrat). Data are presented as the average of the 3 quadrats at each point. Polygons of discrete seagrass meadow/habitat type boundaries were created using the on-screen digitising functions of ArcGIS (ESRI Inc.), differentiated on the basis of colour, texture, and the geomorphic and geographical context. The resulting seagrass and benthic cover data of each survey point and for each seagrass meadow/habitat type was linked to GPS coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point and polygon shapefile, respectively, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 55 South.

Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

(Table 3) Details of field-based ice and snow profile measurements from the SIMBA 2007 experiment

Although sea-ice extent in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen (BA) seas sector of the Antarctic has shown significant decline over several decades, there is not enough data to draw any conclusion on sea-ice thickness and its change for the BA sector, or for the entire Southern Ocean. This paper presents our results of snow and ice thickness distributions from the SIMBA 2007 experiment in the Bellingshausen Sea, using four different methods (ASPeCt ship observations, downward-looking camera imaging, ship-based electromagnetic induction (EM) sounding, and in situ measurements using ice drills). A snow freeboard and ice thickness model generated from in situ measurements was then applied to contemporaneous ICESat (satellite laser altimetry) measured freeboard to derive ice thickness at the ICESat footprint scale. Errors from in situ measurements and from ICESat freeboard estimations were incorporated into the model, so a thorough evaluation of the model and uncertainty of the ice thickness estimation from ICESat are possible. Our results indicate that ICESat derived snow freeboard and ice thickness distributions (asymmetrical unimodal tailing to right) for first-year ice (0.29 ± 0.14 m for mean snow freeboard and 1.06 ± 0.40 m for mean ice thickness), multi-year ice (0.48 ± 0.26 and 1.59 ± 0.75 m, respectively), and all ice together (0.42 ± 0.24 and 1.38 ± 0.70 m, respectively) for the study area seem reasonable compared with those values from the in situ measurements, ASPeCt observations, and EM measurements. The EM measurements can act as an appropriate supplement for ASPeCt observations taken hourly from the ship's bridge and provide reasonable ice and snow distributions under homogeneous ice conditions. Our proposed approaches: (1) of using empirical equations relating snow freeboard to ice thickness based on in situ measurements and (2) of using isostatic equations that replace snow depth with snow freeboard (or empirical equations that convert freeboard to snow depth), are efficient and important ways to derive ice thickness from ICESat altimetry at the footprint scale for Antarctic sea ice. Spatial and temporal snow and ice thickness from satellite altimetry for the BA sector and for the entire Southern Ocean is therefore possible.