Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Mussel Community Studies [Year One].

Mytilus californianus communities (mussel beds) were examined from six geographic localities in Southern California. These included two mainland sites, Coal Oil Point and San Diego; and four island sites, San Miguel, Santa Cruz, San Nicholas, and Santa Barbara Islands. Optimal sample sizes were determined for each locality. In general, a sample, size of 1500 cm2 (five cores) was optimal for the "typical" mussel bed. However, structurally unique mussel beds required individual consideration. Community biomass, diversity, species richness, and species evenness were calculated quarterly for the island localities and biannually for mainland locations. The molluscs, primarily the mussels, accounted for 90% of the total biomass while all other groups combined accounted for 10% or less of the total biomass. The mussel communities from all localities contributed to the master species list which conservatively contained 346 species. The most diverse localities were Coal Oil Point and Santa Cruz Island with an average number of 73 and 74 species/O.lS m respectively. No overall seasonal patterns existed in community composition. The community similarity analyses showed the mainland localities biotically dissimilar from the islands and both groups were characterized by distinct faunal assemblages. In addition, San Miguel Island biota were unique among the island sites. The most important mussel bed structural attributes provided habitats for the associated community and included sediment and coarse fraction features. Food-related resources provided by the mussel bed were secondarily important. Community diversity generally increased with the quantity of habitat and food resources. (PDF contains 138 pages)

Mussel Community Studies [Year Two].

The communities associated with Mytilus californianus (mussel) beds from eleven geographic localities in Southern California were examined. The localities included four mainland sites - Government Point, Goleta Point, Corona del Mar and San Diego; and seven offshore islands including - San Miguel Island, Santa Rosa Island, Santa Cruz Island, Santa Barbara Island, Santa Catalina Island, San Nicholas Island and San Clemente Island. This geographic coverage. was much more complete than the previous year (1975-1976 program). However, it is still less than ideal. In particular a single island collection locality may not be representative of an entire island. Therefore greater geographic coverage of the islands is recommended for the future. In general, the 1500 cm2 sample size adopted during the 1975-1976 program proved adequate for sampling most of the structurally diverse mussel beds this year. This sample size supplied information on the characteristic and abundant species inhabiting a particular mussel bed, and provided data which was well suited to intersite community comparisons. This sample size was too small in several instances to include the rarer, less abundant species. The mussel communities from all localities contributed to the master species list which contained conservatively 481 species of animals and 63 specie s of algae. The most diverse collections came from Santa Cruz Island and Corona del Mar, and these areas contained 120 and 119 species respectively. The lowest diversity was recorded for the mussel beds from Goleta Point: which contained 57 species. Mussel community samples were collected from upper and lower intertidal areas occupied by the mussel beds within a locality. In general, community differences both in composition and abundance were associated with these collections. (PDF contains 158 pages)

Mussel Community Studies [Year Three].

The communities associated with Mytilus californianus (mussel) beds from 20 geographic sites in southern California were examined. The study areas included six mainland sites - Government Point, Goleta Point, Ventura, Corona del Mar, Carlsbad, and San Diego,and two sites on opposite sides of seven offshore islands - San Miguel Island, Santa Rosa Island, Santa Cruz Island, Anacapa Island, San Nicholas Island, Santa Cruz Island and San Clemente Island. : The mussel communities from all areas contributed to the master species list which now encompasses conservatively, 610 species of animals and 141 species of algae. The most diverse collection came from Cat Rock, Anacapa Island where the mussel beds supported 174 species of invertebrates. The lowest diversity was recorded for mussel beds from Ben Weston, Santa Catalina Island which contained 46 species. In general, the island mussel beds supported a greater diversity of both animals and plants. Mussel community samples were collected from upper and lower intertidal areas occupied by the mussel beds within a locality. Community differences in both composition and abundance were associated with these collections. Overall. community similarity analysis revealed five major patterns which corresponded to characteristic species assemblages occupying the mussel beds from the various geographic areas. The patterns included: (1) clusters of localities which display a north-south geographic pattern with respect to the similarity of their respective mussel communities, (2) a separation of selected island and mainland communities because of dissimilarities in their species composition, (3) differences between mussel communities. on opposite sides of the offshore islands, (4) clusters of species whose highest abundances characterize selected localities, (5) species groups ubiquitous to all mussel beds examined. The results of the community analysis further suggest that predictions can be made delineating the probable mussel community inhabitants of areas not sampled. The species distribution patterns observed appear to correspond in part to the influence of currents and water masses which bear planktonic larvae and impinge on selected localities. The most important mussel bed features associated with community differences were quantitative and qualitative differences in the potential microhabitats. Those features associate~ with greater species diversity include the pore base of coarse fraction shell and rock debris, skewness and kurtosis of the sediment grain-size distributions and mussel bed thickness. Those features associated with lower species diversity included the quantity of tar. and rock and shell debris trapped within the mussel bed. (PDF contains 51 pages)

Effects of particle size ratio on single particle motion in colloidal dispersions

The motion of a single Brownian particle of arbitrary size through a dilute colloidal dispersion of neutrally buoyant bath spheres of another characteristic size in a Newtonian solvent is examined in two contexts. First, the particle in question, the probe particle, is subject to a constant applied external force drawing it through the suspension as a simple model for active and nonlinear microrheology. The strength of the applied external force, normalized by the restoring forces of Brownian motion, is the Péclet number, Pe. This dimensionless quantity describes how strongly the probe is upsetting the equilibrium distribution of the bath particles. The mean motion and fluctuations in the probe position are related to interpreted quantities of an effective viscosity of the suspension. These interpreted quantities are calculated to first order in the volume fraction of bath particles and are intimately tied to the spatial distribution, or microstructure, of bath particles relative to the probe. For weak Pe, the disturbance to the equilibrium microstructure is dipolar in nature, with accumulation and depletion regions on the front and rear faces of the probe, respectively. With increasing applied force, the accumulation region compresses to form a thin boundary layer whose thickness scales with the inverse of Pe. The depletion region lengthens to form a trailing wake. The magnitude of the microstructural disturbance is found to grow with increasing bath particle size -- small bath particles in the solvent resemble a continuum with effective microviscosity given by Einstein's viscosity correction for a dilute dispersion of spheres. Large bath particles readily advect toward the minimum approach distance possible between the probe and bath particle, and the probe and bath particle pair rotating as a doublet is the primary mechanism by which the probe particle is able to move past; this is a process that slows the motion of the probe by a factor of the size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to force thin at low Péclet number due to decreasing contributions from Brownian motion, and force thicken at high Péclet number due to the increasing influence of the configuration-averaged reduction in the probe's hydrodynamic self mobility. Nonmonotonicity at finite sizes is evident in the limiting high-Pe intrinsic microviscosity plateau as a function of bath-to-probe particle size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to grow with the size ratio for very small probes even at large-but-finite Péclet numbers. However, even a small repulsive interparticle potential, that excludes lubrication interactions, can reduce this intrinsic microviscosity back to an order one quantity. The results of this active microrheology study are compared to previous theoretical studies of falling-ball and towed-ball rheometry and sedimentation and diffusion in polydisperse suspensions, and the singular limit of full hydrodynamic interactions is noted.

Second, the probe particle in question is no longer subject to a constant applied external force. Rather, the particle is considered to be a catalytically-active motor, consuming the bath reactant particles on its reactive face while passively colliding with reactant particles on its inert face. By creating an asymmetric distribution of reactant about its surface, the motor is able to diffusiophoretically propel itself with some mean velocity. The effects of finite size of the solute are examined on the leading order diffusive microstructure of reactant about the motor. Brownian and interparticle contributions to the motor velocity are computed for several interparticle interaction potential lengths and finite reactant-to-motor particle size ratios, with the dimensionless motor velocity increasing with decreasing motor size. A discussion on Brownian rotation frames the context in which these results could be applicable, and future directions are proposed which properly incorporate reactant advection at high motor velocities.

Quantum simulation of enzyme catalysis

Separating the dynamics of variables that evolve on different timescales is a common assumption in exploring complex systems, and a great deal of progress has been made in understanding chemical systems by treating independently the fast processes of an activated chemical species from the slower processes that proceed activation. Protein motion underlies all biocatalytic reactions, and understanding the nature of this motion is central to understanding how enzymes catalyze reactions with such specificity and such rate enhancement. This understanding is challenged by evidence of breakdowns in the separability of timescales of dynamics in the active site form motions of the solvating protein. Quantum simulation methods that bridge these timescales by simultaneously evolving quantum and classical degrees of freedom provide an important method on which to explore this breakdown. In the following dissertation, three problems of enzyme catalysis are explored through quantum simulation.

Selective data gathering in community sensor networks

Smartphones and other powerful sensor-equipped consumer devices make it possible to sense the physical world at an unprecedented scale. Nearly 2 million Android and iOS devices are activated every day, each carrying numerous sensors and a high-speed internet connection. Whereas traditional sensor networks have typically deployed a fixed number of devices to sense a particular phenomena, community networks can grow as additional participants choose to install apps and join the network. In principle, this allows networks of thousands or millions of sensors to be created quickly and at low cost. However, making reliable inferences about the world using so many community sensors involves several challenges, including scalability, data quality, mobility, and user privacy.

This thesis focuses on how learning at both the sensor- and network-level can provide scalable techniques for data collection and event detection. First, this thesis considers the abstract problem of distributed algorithms for data collection, and proposes a distributed, online approach to selecting which set of sensors should be queried. In addition to providing theoretical guarantees for submodular objective functions, the approach is also compatible with local rules or heuristics for detecting and transmitting potentially valuable observations. Next, the thesis presents a decentralized algorithm for spatial event detection, and describes its use detecting strong earthquakes within the Caltech Community Seismic Network. Despite the fact that strong earthquakes are rare and complex events, and that community sensors can be very noisy, our decentralized anomaly detection approach obtains theoretical guarantees for event detection performance while simultaneously limiting the rate of false alarms.

Community sense and response systems

The proliferation of smartphones and other internet-enabled, sensor-equipped consumer devices enables us to sense and act upon the physical environment in unprecedented ways. This thesis considers Community Sense-and-Response (CSR) systems, a new class of web application for acting on sensory data gathered from participants' personal smart devices. The thesis describes how rare events can be reliably detected using a decentralized anomaly detection architecture that performs client-side anomaly detection and server-side event detection. After analyzing this decentralized anomaly detection approach, the thesis describes how weak but spatially structured events can be detected, despite significant noise, when the events have a sparse representation in an alternative basis. Finally, the thesis describes how the statistical models needed for client-side anomaly detection may be learned efficiently, using limited space, via coresets.

The Caltech Community Seismic Network (CSN) is a prototypical example of a CSR system that harnesses accelerometers in volunteers' smartphones and consumer electronics. Using CSN, this thesis presents the systems and algorithmic techniques to design, build and evaluate a scalable network for real-time awareness of spatial phenomena such as dangerous earthquakes.

Microstructure control and iodine doping of bismuth telluride

On the materials scale, thermoelectric efficiency is defined by the dimensionless figure of merit zT. This value is made up of three material components in the form zT = Tα²/ρκ, where α is the Seebeck coefficient, ρ is the electrical resistivity, and κ is the total thermal conductivity. Therefore, in order to improve zT would require the reduction of κ and ρ while increasing α. However due to the inter-relation of the electrical and thermal properties of materials, typical routes to thermoelectric enhancement come in one of two forms. The first is to isolate the electronic properties and increase α without negatively affecting ρ. Techniques like electron filtering, quantum confinement, and density of states distortions have been proposed to enhance the Seebeck coefficient in thermoelectric materials. However, it has been difficult to prove the efficacy of these techniques. More recently efforts to manipulate the band degeneracy in semiconductors has been explored as a means to enhance α.

The other route to thermoelectric enhancement is through minimizing the thermal conductivity, κ. More specifically, thermal conductivity can be broken into two parts, an electronic and lattice term, κ_e and κ_l respectively. From a functional materials standpoint, the reduction in lattice thermal conductivity should have a minimal effect on the electronic properties. Most routes incorporate techniques that focus on the reduction of the lattice thermal conductivity. The components that make up κ_l (κ_l = 1/3Cνl) are the heat capacity (C), phonon group velocity (ν), and phonon mean free path (l). Since the difficulty is extreme in altering the heat capacity and group velocity, the phonon mean free path is most often the source of reduction.

Past routes to decreasing the phonon mean free path has been by alloying and grain size reduction. However, in these techniques the electron mobility is often negatively affected because in alloying any perturbation to the periodic potential can cause additional adverse carrier scattering. Grain size reduction has been another successful route to enhancing zT because of the significant difference in electron and phonon mean free paths. However, grain size reduction is erratic in anisotropic materials due to the orientation dependent transport properties. However, microstructure formation in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium processing routines can be used to effectively reduce the phonon mean free path as a route to enhance the figure of merit.

This work starts with a discussion of several different deliberate microstructure varieties. Control of the morphology and finally structure size and spacing is discussed at length. Since the material example used throughout this thesis is anisotropic a short primer on zone melting is presented as an effective route to growing homogeneous and oriented polycrystalline material. The resulting microstructure formation and control is presented specifically in the case of In₂Te₃-Bi₂Te₃ composites and the transport properties pertinent to thermoelectric materials is presented. Finally, the transport and discussion of iodine doped Bi₂Te₃ is presented as a re-evaluation of the literature data and what is known today.

The changing ecosystem of Lake Victoria, East Africa

Dramatic changes are occurring in the Lake Victoria ecosystem. Two-thirds of the endemic haplochromine cichlid species, of international interest for studies of evolution, have disappeared, an event associated with the sudden population explosion of piscivorous Nile perch (Lates: order Perciformes, family Centropomidae) introduced to the lake some thirty years ago. The total fish yield has, however, increased 5-fold from 1970 to 1990, but this yield is now dominated by just three fish species: the introduced Nile perch (Lates niloticus), Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), and a small endemic pelagic cyprinid (Rastrineobola argentea); these three have replaced a multispecies fishery. Contemporaneously the lake is becoming increasingly eutrophic with associated deoxygenation of the bottom waters, thereby reducing fish habitats. Conditions appear to be unstable.

Recent research in the African Great Lakes: fisheries, biodiversity and cichlid evolution

The East African Great Lakes are now well known for (1) their fisheries, of vital importance for their rapidly rising riparian human populations, and (2) as biodiversity hotspots with spectacular endemic faunas, of which the flocks of cichlid fishes unique to each of the three largest lakes, Tanganyika, Malawi and Victoria, offer unique opportunities to investigate how new species evolve and coexist. Since the early 1990s research involving over a hundred scientists, financed by many international bodies, has produced numerous reports and publications in widely scattered journals. This article summarizes their main discoveries and examines the status of, and prospects for, the fisheries, as well as current ideas on how their rich endemic fish faunas have evolved. It first considers fisheries projects in each of the three lakes: the deep rift valley lakes Tanganyika and Malawi and the huge Victoria, all of which share their waters between several East African countries. Secondly it considers the biodiversity surveys of each lake, based on underwater (SCUBA) observations of fish ecology and behaviour which have revealed threats to their fish faunas, and considers what conservation measures are needed. Thirdly, using the lakes as laboratories, what have the international investigations (including DNA techniques and follow-up aquarium experiments) now revealed about the origins and relationships of their cichlid species flocks and mechanisms of evolution?

I. Numerical solution of exact pair equations. II. Numerical solution of first-order pair equations

Part I

Numerical solutions to the S-limit equations for the helium ground state and excited triplet state and the hydride ion ground state are obtained with the second and fourth difference approximations. The results for the ground states are superior to previously reported values. The coupled equations resulting from the partial wave expansion of the exact helium atom wavefunction were solved giving accurate S-, P-, D-, F-, and G-limits. The G-limit is -2.90351 a.u. compared to the exact value of the energy of -2.90372 a.u.

Part II

The pair functions which determine the exact first-order wavefunction for the ground state of the three-electron atom are found with the matrix finite difference method. The second- and third-order energies for the (1s1s)¹S, (1s2s)³S, and (1s2s)¹S states of the two-electron atom are presented along with contour and perspective plots of the pair functions. The total energy for the three-electron atom with a nuclear charge Z is found to be E(Z) = -1.125•Z² +1.022805•Z-0.408138-0.025515•(1/Z)+O(1/Z²)a.u.

Nicolao de Mura, "Progumnásmata"

[ES] Los Ejercicios preparatorios (προγυμνάσματα, Progumnásmata, lat. Praexercitamina) de Nicolao de Mura fueron escritos en el siglo V d. C., de manera que son posteriores al de Teón (siglo I), al atribuido a Hermógenes (siglo II) y al de Aftonio (siglo IV). En este trabajo se publica la primera traducción al español de esta obra. Esta traducción está precedida de una Introducción y está comentada en notas; finalmente, se añade un léxico de los términos retóricos en ella utilizados.

Localization of sources of human evoked responses

The evoked response, a signal present in the electro-encephalogram when specific sense modalities are stimulated with brief sensory inputs, has not yet revealed as much about brain function as it apparently promised when first recorded in the late 1940's. One of the problems has been to record the responses at a large number of points on the surface of the head; thus in order to achieve greater spatial resolution than previously attained, a 50-channel recording system was designed to monitor experiments with human visually evoked responses.

Conventional voltage versus time plots of the responses were found inadequate as a means of making qualitative studies of such a large data space. This problem was solved by creating a graphical display of the responses in the form of equipotential maps of the activity at successive instants during the complete response. In order to ascertain the necessary complexity of any models of the responses, factor analytic procedures were used to show that models characterized by only five or six independent parameters could adequately represent the variability in all recording channels.

One type of equivalent source for the responses which meets these specifications is the electrostatic dipole. Two different dipole models were studied: the dipole in a homogeneous sphere and the dipole in a sphere comprised of two spherical shells (of different conductivities) concentric with and enclosing a homogeneous sphere of a third conductivity. These models were used to determine nonlinear least squares fits of dipole parameters to a given potential distribution on the surface of a spherical approximation to the head. Numerous tests of the procedures were conducted with problems having known solutions. After these theoretical studies demonstrated the applicability of the technique, the models were used to determine inverse solutions for the evoked response potentials at various times throughout the responses. It was found that reliable estimates of the location and strength of cortical activity were obtained, and that the two models differed only slightly in their inverse solutions. These techniques enabled information flow in the brain, as indicated by locations and strengths of active sites, to be followed throughout the evoked response.