940 resultados para Logistic Epidemic
Resumo:
Stay-green plants retain green leaves longer after anthesis and can have improved yield, particularly under water limitation. As senescence is a dynamic process, genotypes with different senescence patterns may exhibit similar final normalised difference vegetative index (NDVI). By monitoring NDVI from as early as awn emergence to maturity, we demonstrate that analysing senescence dynamics improves insight into genotypic stay-green variation. A senescence evaluation tool was developed to fit a logistic function to NDVI data and used to analyse data from three environments for a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population whose lines contrast for stay-green. Key stay-green traits were estimated including, maximum NDVI, senescence rate and a trait integrating NDVI variation after anthesis, as well as the timing from anthesis to onset, midpoint and conclusion of senescence. The integrative trait and the timing to onset and mid-senescence exhibited high positive correlations with yield and a high heritability in the three studied environments. Senescence rate was correlated with yield in some environments, whereas maximum NDVI was associated with yield in a drought-stressed environment. Where resources preclude frequent measurements, we found that NDVI measurements may be restricted to the period of rapid senescence, but caution is required when dealing with lines of different phenology. In contrast, regular monitoring during the whole period after flowering allows the estimation of senescence dynamics traits that may be reliably compared across genotypes and environments. We anticipate that selection for stay-green traits will enhance genetic progress towards high-yielding, stay-green germplasm.
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The critical crop-weed competition period in a dry-seeded rice system is an important consideration in formulating weed management strategies. Field experiments were conducted in the summer seasons of 2012 and 2013 at the Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India, to determine the extent of yield loss in two different rice cultivars (PR 114 and PR 115) with different periods of weed interference. Twelve weed control timings were used to identify critical periods of weed competition in dry-seeded rice. PR 114, a long-duration rice cultivar (145 d) having slower initial growth than PR 115 (125 d), was more prone to yield losses. In both years, 100% yield loss was observed where weeds were not controlled throughout the season. In weed-free plots, the grain yield of PR 114 was 6.39-6.80 t ha-1, for PR 115, it was 6.49-6.87 t ha-1. Gompertz and logistic equations fitted to yield data in response to increasing periods of weed control and weed interference showed that, PR 114 had longer critical periods than PR 115. Critical weed-free periods to achieve 95% of weed-free yield for PR 114 was longer than for PR 115 by 31 days in 2012 and 26 days in 2013. Weed infestation also influenced the duration of critical periods. Higher weed pressure in 2012 than in 2013 increased the duration of the critical period of crop-weed competition in that year. The identification of critical crop-weed competition periods for different cultivars will facilitate improved decision-making regarding the timing of weed control and the adoption of cultivars having high weed-suppressing abilities. This will also contribute to the development of integrated weed management in dry-seeded rice systems.
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Prickly acacia (Vachellia nilotica subsp. indica), a native of the Indian subcontinent, is a serious weed of the grazing areas of northern Australia and is a target for classical biological control. Native range surveys in India identified a leaf webber, Phycita sp. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) as a prospective biological control agent for prickly acacia. In this study, we report the life cycle and host-specificity test results Phycita sp. and highlight the contradictory results between the no-choice tests in India and Australia and the field host range in India. In no-choice tests in India and Australia, Phycita sp. completed development on two of 11 and 16 of 27 non-target test plant species, respectively. Although Phycita sp. fed and completed development on two non-target test plant species (Vachellia planifrons and V. leucophloea) in no-choice tests in India, there was no evidence of the insect on the two non-target test plant species in the field. Our contention is that oviposition behaviour could be the key mechanism in host selection of Phycita sp., resulting in its incidence only on prickly acacia in India. This is supported by paired oviposition choice tests involving three test plant species (Acacia baileyana, A. mearnsii and A. deanei) in quarantine in Australia, where eggs were laid only on prickly acacia. However, in paired oviposition choice trials, only few eggs were laid, making the results unreliable. Although oviposition choice tests suggest that prickly acacia is the most preferred and natural host, difficulties in conducting choice oviposition tests with fully grown trees under quarantine conditions in Australia and the logistic difficulties of conducting open-field tests with fully grown native Australian plants in India have led to rejection of Phycita sp. as a potential biological control agent for prickly acacia in Australia.
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Previous research identifies various reasons companies invest in information technology (IT), often as a means to generate value. To add to the discussion of IT value generation, this study investigates investments in enterprise software systems that support business processes. Managers of more than 500 Swiss small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) responded to a survey regarding the levels of their IT investment in enterprise software systems and the perceived utility of those investments. The authors use logistic and ordinary least squares regression to examine whether IT investments in two business processes affect SMEs' performance and competitive advantage. Using cluster analysis, they also develop a firm typology with four distinct groups that differ in their investments in enterprise software systems. These findings offer key implications for both research and managerial practice.
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Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.
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In this Thesis, we develop theory and methods for computational data analysis. The problems in data analysis are approached from three perspectives: statistical learning theory, the Bayesian framework, and the information-theoretic minimum description length (MDL) principle. Contributions in statistical learning theory address the possibility of generalization to unseen cases, and regression analysis with partially observed data with an application to mobile device positioning. In the second part of the Thesis, we discuss so called Bayesian network classifiers, and show that they are closely related to logistic regression models. In the final part, we apply the MDL principle to tracing the history of old manuscripts, and to noise reduction in digital signals.
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Background Studies investigating the relationship between malnutrition and post-discharge mortality following acute hip fracture yield conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether malnutrition independently predicted 12-month post-fracture mortality after adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. Methods An ethics approved, prospective, consecutive audit was undertaken for all surgically treated hip fracture inpatients admitted to a dedicated orthogeriatric unit (November 2010–October 2011). The 12-month mortality data were obtained by a dual search of the mortality registry and Queensland Health database. Malnutrition was evaluated using the Subjective Global Assessment. Demographic (age, gender, admission residence) and clinical covariates included fracture type, time to surgery, anaesthesia type, type of surgery, post-surgery time to mobilize and post-operative complications (delirium, pulmonary and deep vein thrombosis, cardiac complications, infections). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was retrospectively applied. All diagnoses were confirmed by the treating orthogeriatrician. Results A total of 322 of 346 patients were available for audit. Increased age (P = 0.004), admission from residential care (P < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (P = 0.007), malnutrition (P < 0.001), time to mobilize >48 h (P < 0.001), delirium (P = 0.003), pulmonary embolism (P = 0.029) and cardiovascular complication (P = 0.04) were associated with 12-month mortality. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that malnutrition (odds ratio (OR) 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–4.7, P = 0.007)), in addition to admission from residential care (OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.3–5.3, P = 0.005)) and pulmonary embolism (OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.5–78.7, P = 0.017)), independently predicted 12-month mortality. Conclusions Findings substantiate malnutrition as an independent predictor of 12-month mortality in a representative sample of hip fracture inpatients. Effective strategies to identify and treat malnutrition in hip fracture should be prioritized.
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Clays could underpin a viable agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technology given their affinity for nitrogen and carbon compounds. We provide the first investigation into the efficacy of clays to decrease agricultural nitrogen GHG emissions (i.e., N2O and NH3). Via laboratory experiments using an automated closed-vessel analysis system, we tested the capacity of two clays (vermiculite and bentonite) to decrease N2O and NH3 emissions and organic carbon losses from livestock manures (beef, pig, poultry, and egg layer) incorporated into an agricultural soil. Clay addition levels varied, with a maximum of 1:1 to manure (dry weight). Cumulative gas emissions were modeled using the biological logistic function, with 15 of 16 treatments successfully fitted (P < 0.05) by this model. When assessing all of the manures together, NH3 emissions were lower (×2) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition, but this difference was not significant (P = 0.17). Nitrous oxide emissions were significantly lower (×3; P < 0.05) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition. When assessing manures individually, we observed generally decreasing trends in NH3 and N2O emissions with increasing clay addition, albeit with widely varying statistical significance between manure types. Most of the treatments also showed strong evidence of increased C retention with increasing clay additions, with up to 10 times more carbon retained in treatments containing clay compared with treatments containing no clay. This preliminary assessment of the efficacy of clays to mitigate agricultural GHG emissions indicates strong promise.
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Background: Increased hospital readmission and longer stays in the hospital for patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease can result in higher healthcare costs and heavier individual burden. Thus, knowledge of the characteristics and predictive factors for Vietnamese patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease, at high risk of hospital readmission and longer stays in the hospital, could provide a better understanding on how to develop an effective care plan aimed at improving patient outcomes. However, information about factors influencing hospital readmission and length of stay of patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease in Vietnam is limited. Aim: This study examined factors influencing hospital readmission and length of stay of Vietnamese patients with both type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease. Methods: An exploratory prospective study design was conducted on 209 patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease in Vietnam. Data were collected from patient charts and patients' responses to self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, bivariate correlation, logistic and multiple regression were used to analyse the data. Results: The hospital readmission rate was 12.0% among patients with both type 2 diabetes and cardiac disease. The average length of stay in the hospital was 9.37 days. Older age (OR= 1.11, p< .05), increased duration of type 2 diabetes (OR= 1.22, p< .05), less engagement in stretching/strengthening exercise behaviours (OR= .93, p< .001) and in communication with physician (OR= .21, p< .001) were significant predictors of 30-dayhospital readmission. Increased number of additional co-morbidities (β= .33, p< .001) was a significant predictor of longer stays in the hospital. High levels of cognitive symptom management (β= .40, p< .001) significantly predicted longer stays in the hospital, indicating that the more patients practiced cognitive symptom management, the longer the stay in hospital. Conclusions: This study provides some evidence of factors influencing hospital readmission and length of stay and argues that this information may have significant implications for clinical practice in order to improve patients' health outcomes. However, the findings of this study related to the targeted hospital only. Additionally, the investigation of environmental factors is recommended for future research as these factors are important components contributing to the research model.
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Objective To determine mortality rates after a first lower limb amputation and explore the rates for different subpopulations. Methods Retrospective cohort study of all people who underwent a first amputation at or proximal to transtibial level, in an area of 1.7 million people. Analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank tests for univariate associations of psycho-social and health variables. Logistic regression for odds of death at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years. Results 299 people were included. Median time to death was 20.3 months (95%CI: 13.1; 27.5). 30-day mortality = 22%; odds of death 2.3 times higher in people with history of cerebrovascular disease (95%CI: 1.2; 4.7, P = 0.016). 1 year mortality = 44%; odds of death 3.5 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 7.0, P < 0.001). 5-years mortality = 77%; odds of death 5.4 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 16.0,P = 0.003). Variation in mortality rates was most apparent in different age groups; people 75–84 years having better short term outcomes than those younger and older. Conclusions Mortality rates demonstrated the frailty of this population, with almost one quarter of people dying within 30-days, and almost half at 1 year. People with cerebrovascular had higher odds of death at 30 days, and those with renal disease and 1 and 5 years, respectively.
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To investigate the risk of hyperuricemia in relation to Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in children from Taiwan, 225 Taiwanese children aged 12-15 years were recruited from 2009 to 2010. Linear and logistic regression models were employed to examine the influence of PFASs on serum uric acid levels. Findings revealed that eight of ten PFASs analyses were detected in > 94% of the participants' serum samples. Multivariate linear regression models revealed that perfluorooctanic acid (PFOA) was positively associated with serum uric acid levels (β=0.1463, p<0.05). Of all the PFASs analyses, only PFOA showed a significant effect on elevated levels of hyperuricemia (aOR=2.16, 95%CI: 1.29-3.61). When stratified by gender, the association between serum PFOA and uric acid levels was only evident among boys (aOR=2.76, 95%CI: 1.37-5.56). In conclusion, PFOA was found to be associated with elevated serum levels of uric acid in Taiwanese children, especially boys. Further research is needed to elucidate these links.
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Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most important bacteria that cause disease in humans, and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) has become the most commonly identified antibiotic-resistant pathogen in many parts of the world. MRSA rates have been stable for many years in the Nordic countries and the Netherlands with a low MRSA prevalence in Europe, but in the recent decades, MRSA rates have increased in those low-prevalence countries as well. MRSA has been established as a major hospital pathogen, but has also been found increasingly in long-term facilities (LTF) and in communities of persons with no connections to the health-care setting. In Finland, the annual number of MRSA isolates reported to the National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) has constantly increased, especially outside the Helsinki metropolitan area. Molecular typing has revealed numerous outbreak strains of MRSA, some of which have previously been associated with community acquisition. In this work, data on MRSA cases notified to the NIDR and on MRSA strain types identified with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), and staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing at the National Reference Laboratory (NRL) in Finland from 1997 to 2004 were analyzed. An increasing trend in MRSA incidence in Finland from 1997 to 2004 was shown. In addition, non-multi-drug resistant (NMDR) MRSA isolates, especially those resistant only to methicillin/oxacillin, showed an emerging trend. The predominant MRSA strains changed over time and place, but two internationally spread epidemic strains of MRSA, FIN-16 and FIN-21, were related to the increase detected most recently. Those strains were also one cause of the strikingly increasing invasive MRSA findings. The rise of MRSA strains with SCCmec types IV or V, possible community-acquired MRSA was also detected. With questionnaires, the diagnostic methods used for MRSA identification in Finnish microbiology laboratories and the number of MRSA screening specimens studied were reviewed. Surveys, which focused on the MRSA situation in long-term facilities in 2001 and on the background information of MRSA-positive persons in 2001-2003, were also carried out. The rates of MRSA and screening practices varied widely across geographic regions. Part of the NMDR MRSA strains could remain undetected in some laboratories because of insufficient diagnostic techniques used. The increasing proportion of elderly population carrying MRSA suggests that MRSA is an emerging problem in Finnish long-term facilities. Among the patients, 50% of the specimens were taken on a clinical basis, 43% on a screening basis after exposure to MRSA, 3% on a screening basis because of hospital contact abroad, and 4% for other reasons. In response to an outbreak of MRSA possessing a new genotype that occurred in a health care ward and in an associated nursing home of a small municipality in Northern Finland in autumn 2003, a point-prevalence survey was performed six months later. In the same study, the molecular epidemiology of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) strains were also assessed, the results to the national strain collection compared, and the difficulties of MRSA screening with low-level oxacillin-resistant isolates encountered. The original MRSA outbreak in LTF, which consisted of isolates possessing a nationally new PFGE profile (FIN-22) and internationally rare MLST type (ST-27), was confined. Another previously unrecognized MRSA strain was found with additional screening, possibly indicating that current routine MRSA screening methods may be insufficiently sensitive for strains possessing low-level oxacillin resistance. Most of the MSSA strains found were genotypically related to the epidemic MRSA strains, but only a few of them had received the SCCmec element, and all those strains possessed the new SCCmec type V. In the second largest nursing home in Finland, the colonization of S. aureus and MRSA, and the role of screening sites along with broth enrichment culture on the sensitivity to detect S. aureus were studied. Combining the use of enrichment broth and perineal swabbing, in addition to nostrils and skin lesions swabbing, may be an alternative for throat swabs in the nursing home setting, especially when residents are uncooperative. Finally, in order to evaluate adequate phenotypic and genotypic methods needed for reliable laboratory diagnostics of MRSA, oxacillin disk diffusion and MIC tests to the cefoxitin disk diffusion method at both +35°C and +30°C, both with or without an addition of sodium chloride (NaCl) to the Müller Hinton test medium, and in-house PCR to two commercial molecular methods (the GenoType® MRSA test and the EVIGENETM MRSA Detection test) with different bacterial species in addition to S. aureus were compared. The cefoxitin disk diffusion method was superior to that of oxacillin disk diffusion and to the MIC tests in predicting mecA-mediated resistance in S. aureus when incubating at +35°C with or without the addition of NaCl to the test medium. Both the Geno Type® MRSA and EVIGENETM MRSA Detection tests are usable, accurate, cost-effective, and sufficiently fast methods for rapid MRSA confirmation from a pure culture.
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BACKGROUND Chikungunya and dengue infections are spatio-temporally related. The current review aims to determine the geographic limits of chikungunya, dengue and the principal mosquito vectors for both viruses and to synthesise current epidemiological understanding of their co-distribution. METHODS Three biomedical databases (PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science) were searched from their inception until May 2015 for studies that reported concurrent detection of chikungunya and dengue viruses in the same patient. Additionally, data from WHO, CDC and Healthmap alerts were extracted to create up-to-date global distribution maps for both dengue and chikungunya. RESULTS Evidence for chikungunya-dengue co-infection has been found in Angola, Gabon, India, Madagascar, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Saint Martin, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand and Yemen; these constitute only 13 out of the 98 countries/territories where both chikungunya and dengue epidemic/endemic transmission have been reported. CONCLUSIONS Understanding the true extent of chikungunya-dengue co-infection is hampered by current diagnosis largely based on their similar symptoms. Heightened awareness of chikungunya among the public and public health practitioners in the advent of the ongoing outbreak in the Americas can be expected to improve diagnostic rigour. Maps generated from the newly compiled lists of the geographic distribution of both pathogens and vectors represent the current geographical limits of chikungunya and dengue, as well as the countries/territories at risk of future incursion by both viruses. These describe regions of co-endemicity in which lab-based diagnosis of suspected cases is of higher priority.
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- Objective The purpose of this research was to explore which demographic and health status variables moderated the relationship between psychological distress and three nutrition indicators: the consumption of fruits, vegetables and takeaway. - Method We analysed data from the 2009 Self-Reported Health Status Survey Report collected in the state of Queensland, Australia. Adults (N = 6881) reported several demographic and health status variables. Moderated logistic regression models were estimated separately for the three nutrition indicators, testing as moderators demographic (age, gender, educational attainment, household income, remoteness, and area-level socioeconomic status) and health status indicators (body mass index, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and diabetes status). - Results Several significant interactions emerged between psychological distress, demographic (age, area-level socioeconomic status, and income level), and health status variables (body mass index, diabetes status) in predicting the nutrition indicators. Relationships between distress and the nutrition indicators were not significantly different by gender, remoteness, educational attainment, high cholesterol status, and high blood pressure status. - Conclusions The associations between psychological distress and several nutrition indicators differ amongst population subgroups. These findings suggest that in distressed adults, age, area-level socio-economic status, income level, body mass index, and diabetes status may serve as protective or risk factors through increasing or decreasing the likelihood of meeting nutritional guidelines. Public health interventions for improving dietary behaviours and nutrition may be more effective if they take into account the moderators identified in this study rather than using global interventions.
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The first part of this work investigates the molecular epidemiology of a human enterovirus (HEV), echovirus 30 (E-30). This project is part of a series of studies performed in our research team analyzing the molecular epidemiology of HEV-B viruses. A total of 129 virus strains had been isolated in different parts of Europe. The sequence analysis was performed in three different genomic regions: 420 nucleotides (nt) in the VP4/VP2 capsid protein coding region, the entire VP1 capsid protein coding gene of 876 nt, and 150 nt in the VP1/2A junction region. The analysis revealed a succession of dominant sublineages within a major genotype. The temporally earlier genotypes had been replaced by a genetically homogenous lineage that has been circulating in Europe since the late 1970s. The same genotype was found by other research groups in North America and Australia. Globally, other cocirculating genetic lineages also exist. The prevalence of a dominant genotype makes E-30 different from other previously studied HEVs, such as polioviruses and coxsackieviruses B4 and B5, for which several coexisting genetic lineages have been reported. The second part of this work deals with molecular epidemiology of human rhinoviruses (HRVs). A total of 61 field isolates were studied in the 420-nt stretch in the capsid coding region of VP4/VP2. The isolates were collected from children under two years of age in Tampere, Finland. Sequences from the clinical isolates clustered in the two previously known phylogenetic clades. Seasonal clustering was found. Also, several distinct serotype-like clusters were found to co-circulate during the same epidemic season. Reappearance of a cluster after disappearing for a season was observed. The molecular epidemiology of the analyzed strains turned out to be complex, and we decided to continue our studies of HRV. Only five previously published complete genome sequences of HRV prototype strains were available for analysis. Therefore, all designated HRV prototype strains (n=102) were sequenced in the VP4/VP2 region, and the possibility of genetic typing of HRV was evaluated. Seventy-six of the 102 prototype strains clustered in HRV genetic group A (HRV-A) and 25 in group B (HRV-B). Serotype 87 clustered separately from other HRVs with HEV species D. The field strains of HRV represented as many as 19 different genotypes, as judged with an approximate demarcation of a 20% nt difference in the VP4/VP2 region. The interserotypic differences of HRV were generally similar to those reported between different HEV serotypes (i.e. about 20%), but smaller differences, less than 10%, were also observed. Because some HRV serotypes are genetically so closely related, we suggest that the genetic typing be performed using the criterion "the closest prototype strain". This study is the first systematic genetic characterization of all known HRV prototype strains, providing a further taxonomic proposal for classification of HRV. We proposed to divide the genus Human rhinoviruses into HRV-A and HRV-B. The final part of the work comprises a phylogenetic analysis of a subset (48) of HRV prototype strains and field isolates (12) in the nonstructural part of the genome coding for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D). The proposed division of the HRV strains in the species HRV-A and HRV-B was also supported by 3D region. HRV-B clustered closer to HEV species B, C, and also to polioviruses than to HRV-A. Intraspecies variation within both HRV-A and HRV-B was greater in the 3D coding region than in the VP4/VP2 coding region, in contrast to HEV. Moreover, the diversity of HRV in 3D exceeded that of HEV. One group of HRV-A, designated HRV-A', formed a separate cluster outside other HRV-A in the 3D region. It formed a cluster also in the capsid region, but located within HRV-A. This may reflect a different evolutionary history of distinct genomic regions among HRV-A. Furthermore, the tree topology within HRV-A in the 3D region differed from that in the VP4/VP2, suggesting possible recombination events in the evolution of the strains. No conflicting phylogenies were observed in any of the 12 field isolates. Possible recombination was further studied using the Similarity and Bootscanning analyses of the complete genome sequences of HRV available in public databases. Evidence for recombination among HRV-A was found, as HRV2 and HRV39 showed higher similarity in the nonstructural part of the genome. Whether HRV2 and HRV39 strains - and perhaps also some other HRV-A strains not yet completely sequenced - are recombinants remains to be determined.