Is there a need for additional monetary stimulus? Insights from the original Taylor Rule. CEPS Policy Brief No. 342, April 2016

Central banks in the developed world are being misled into fighting the perceived dangers of a ‘deflationary spiral’ because they are looking at only one indicator: consumer prices. This Policy Brief finds that while consumer prices are flat, broader price indices do not show any sign of impending deflation: the GDP deflator is increasing in the US, Japan and the euro area by about 1.2-1.5%. Nor is the real economy sending any deflationary signals either: unemployment is at record lows in the US and Japan, and is declining in the euro area while GDP growth is at, or above potential. Thus, the overall macroeconomic situation does not give any indication of an imminent deflationary spiral. In today’s high-debt environment, the authors argue that central banks should be looking at the GDP deflator and the growth of nominal GDP, instead of CPI inflation. Nominal GDP growth, as forecasted by the major official institutions, remains robust and is in excess of nominal interest rates. They conclude that if the ECB were to set the interest rate according to the standard rules of thumb for monetary policy, which take into account both the real economy and price developments of broader price indicators, it would start normalising its policy now, instead of pondering over additional measures to fight deflation, which does not exist. In short, economic conditions are slowly normalising; so should monetary policy.

Europe: a question of survival. EPC Commentary, 27 June 2016

The choice of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) poses a fundamental question that can no longer be avoided – that of the survival of European integration. Chancellor Merkel rightly defined Brexit as a “watershed” moment for Europe. She omitted, however, that beyond this turning point lies the crossroads between a spiral of political and economic disintegration and the very difficult path towards re-asserting the European project.

Raw-data to morphometric investigations about the Neogene planktonic foraminifer Globorotalia menardii and related forms from ODP Hole 154-925B (Céara Rise, western tropical Atlantic)

Evolutionary prospection is the study of morphological evolution and speciation in calcareous plankton from selected time-slices and key sites in the world oceans. In this context, the Neogene menardiform globorotalids serve as study objects for morphological speciation in planktic foraminifera. A downcore investigation of test morphology of the lineage of G. menardii-limbata-multicamerata during the past 8 million years was carried out in the western tropical Atlantic ODP Hole 925B. A total of 4669 specimens were measured and analyzed from 38 stratigraphic levels and compared to previous studies from DSDP Sites 502 and 503. Collection of digital images and morphometric measurements from digitized outlines were achieved using a microfossil orientation and imaging robot called AMOR and software, which was especially developed for this purpose. Most attention was given to the evolution of spiral height versus axial length of tests in keel view, but other parameters were investigated as well. The variability of morphological parameters in G. menardii, G. limbata, and G. multicamerata through time are visualized by volume density diagrams. At Hole 925B results show gradual test size increase in G. menardii until about 3.2 Ma. The combination of taxonomic determination in the light microscope with morphometric investigations shows strong morphological overlap and evolutionary continuity from ancestral to extant G. menardii (4-6 chambers in the final whorl) to the descendent but extinct G. limbata (seven chambers in the final whorl) and to G. multicamerata (>=8 chambers in the final whorl). In the morphospace defined by spiral height (dX) and axial length (dY) Globorotalia limbata and G. multicamerata strongly overlap with G. menardii. Distinction of G. limbata from G. menardii is only possible by slight differences in the number of chambers of the final whorl, nuances in spiral convexity, upper keel angles, radii of osculating circles, or by differences in reflectance of their tests. Globorotalia multicamerata can be distinguished from the other two forms by more than eight chambers in the final whorl. It appeared as two stratigraphically separate clusters during the Pliocene. Between 2.88 and 2.3 Ma G. menardii was severely restricted in size and abundance. Thereafter, it showed a rapid and prominent expansion of the upper test size extremes between 2.3 and 1.95 Ma persisting until present. The size-frequency distributions at Hole 925B are surprisingly similar to trends of menardiform globorotalids from Caribbean DSDP Site 502. There, the observations were explained as an adaptation to changes in the upper water column due to the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama. In light of more recent paleontological and geological investigations about the completion of the permanent land connection between North and South America since about 3 Ma the present study gives reason to suspect the sudden test size increase of G. menardii to reflect immigration of extra-large G. menardii from the Indian Ocean or the Pacific. It is hypothesized that during the Late Pliocene dispersal of large G. menardii into the southern to tropical Atlantic occurred during an intermittent episode of intense Agulhas Current leakage around the Cape of Good Hope and from there via warm eddy transport to the tropical Atlantic (Agulhas dispersal hypothesis).

Latitudinal variation in the planktic foraminifer Contusotruncana contusa in the terminal Cretaceous ocean

The morphological variability (coiling properties, size and shape) of the planktic foraminifer Contusortuncana contusa (Cushman) in the terminal Cretaceous ocean was examined at eight deep-sea sites and two continental sections from low (16°) to middle (42°) paleolatitudes in both hemispheres. The material used in this study includes samples from the South Atlantic (DSDP Sites 356, 527 and 525A), North Atlantic (Sites 384 and 548A), Indian and Pacific Oceans (DSDP Site 465A and ODP Sites 761C and 762C) and Tethyan Ocean (outcrop sections from El-Kef and Caravaca). On average 45 specimens from two samples per location were analysed, from an interval corresponding approximately to the last 60 kyr of the Cretaceous. No differences in coiling direction (dextral proportions were > 90% in all samples), percentage of kummerform specimens (usually > 50%) and number of chambers in the last whorl (4-5) were observed between the sites. Both test size (expressed as spiral outline area and test volume) and total number of chambers increase significantly towards lower latitudes. Similarly, test conicity, examined by shape coordinate and eigenshape methods, and angularity of the spiral outline show a rather continuous, slight increase towards lower latitudes. Kummerform specimens of C. contusa were slightly larger and more conical than normalforms and possessed substantially more chambers (both totally and in the last whorl). A principal components analysis of the sample means of five variables describing size and shape clearly distinguished high-latitude sites (525A, 527, 548A, 761C and 762C) from low-latitude sites (384, 465A, Caravaca and El-Kef). Specimens from Site 356 are transitional with respect to those two groups. The results indicate: (1) considerable morphological variation in C. contusa during the terminal Cretaceous comparable to that known in many Recent planktic foraminiferal species and (2) a geographical distribution of this variation corresponding to previously suggested biogeographic schemes based on quantitative analysis of planktic foraminiferal assemblages. Despite the differences in sample means, the overall morphology of C. contusa overlaps among the sites studied, supporting the classification of all C. contusa morphotypes as a single species. Similarly, no discrete morphologic groups could be distinguished within any of the samples.

Davy Crockett, American comic legend,

Aids personal and bibliographical: A word on the almanacs: Notes to frontier humor and legend, p. 164-171.

Davy Crockett, American comic legend;

Anecdotes and woocuts selected from the Crockett almanacs (1835-1856) cf. Editors̓ note.

Paragraphs on art /

"This is the second in a series of brief personal credos ... gathered from speeches made at various times ... "--colophon.

Dietetic manual.

Spiral binding.

Guide to the dissection of the horse,

Spiral binding.

Water supply assessment for Kaskaskia River watershed development : phase I technical report /

"This document was prepared for the Kaskaskia River Basin Water Supply Planning Committee to aid their development of a plan for meeting the future growth of water supply demands within the basin." -- pg. iii.

Researches on the evolution of the stellar systems ...

v. 1. On the universality of the law of gravitation and on the orbits and general characteristics of binary stars.--v. 2. The capture theory of cosmical evolution, founded on dynamical principles and illustrated by phenomena observed in the spiral nebulae, the planetary system, the double and multiple stars and clusters and the star-clouds of the Milky way.

Domino's Farms Master Plan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1984

[Conceptual Sketch of Linear Site Plan], untitled. Red ink sketches on white spiral paper, 8 1/2 x 11 inches [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Subterranean Urban Systems Study, Graham Foundation Grant, 1971-1974

[Conceptual Sketch], untitled. Ink sketch on spiral notebook paper, 8 1/4 x 10 3/4 inches [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Subterranean Urban Systems Study, Graham Foundation Grant, 1971-1974

[Conceptual Sketches], untitled. Ink sketches on spiral notebook paper, 8 1/4 x 10 3/4 inches [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Subterranean Urban Systems Study, Graham Foundation Grant, 1971-1974

[Conceptual Sketches], untitled. Ink sketches on spiral notebook paper, 8 1/4 x 10 3/4 inches [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]