How do experts think about statistics? Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training

Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.

Measuring the regional availability of biomass for biofuels and the potential for microalgae

Biomass is an important energy resource for producing bioenergy and growing the global economy whilst minimising greenhouse gas emissions. Many countries, like Australia have a huge amount of biomass with the potential for bioenergy, but non-edible feedstock resources are significantly under-exploited. Hence it is essential to map the availability of these feedstocks to identify the most appropriate bioenergy solution for each region and develop supply chains for biorefineries. Using Australia as a case study,we present the spatial availability and opportunities for second and third generation feedstocks. Considerations included current land use, the presence of existing biomass industries and climatic conditions. Detailed information on the regional availability of biomass was collected from government statistics, technical reports and energy assessments as well as from academic literature. Second generation biofuels have the largest opportunity in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria (NSW, QLD and VIC) and the regions with the highest potential for microalgae are Western Australia and Northern Territory (WA, NT), based on land use opportunity cost and climate. The approach can be used in other countries with a similar climate. More research is needed to overcome key technical and economic hurdles.

The first application of wastewater-based drug epidemiology in five South Korean cities

Illicit drug consumption in five cities in South Korea was estimated by analyzing 17 drug residues in untreated wastewater samples collected during the Christmas and New Year period of 2012-13. Only methamphetamine, amphetamine, and codeine were detected at concentrations of tens of nanograms per liter or even lower concentrations in more than 90% of the samples. Other illicit drug residues (including cocaine, methadone, and benzoylecgonine) that have been detected frequently in wastewater from other countries were not found in this study. Methamphetamine was found to be the most widely used illicit drug in South Korea, and the estimated average consumption rate was 22 mg d−1 (1000 people)−1. This rate is, for example, 2-5 times lower than the estimated average consumption rates in Hong Kong and other parts of China and 4-80 times lower than the estimated average consumption rates in cities in Western countries. It should be noted that the wastewater samples analyzed in this study were collected during a holiday season, when daily consumption of illicit drugs is often higher than on an average day. The methamphetamine usage rates were calculated for different cities in South Korea, and the usage rates in smaller cities was higher (2-4 times) than the average.

Rank regression analysis of correlated water quality data from South East Queensland

With growing population and fast urbanization in Australia, it is a challenging task to maintain our water quality. It is essential to develop an appropriate statistical methodology in analyzing water quality data in order to draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advices in water management. This paper is to develop robust rank-based procedures for analyzing nonnormally distributed data collected over time at different sites. To take account of temporal correlations of the observations within sites, we consider the optimally combined estimating functions proposed by Wang and Zhu (Biometrika, 93:459-464, 2006) which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. Furthermore, we apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Smoothing leads to easy calculation of the parameter estimates and their variance-covariance matrix. Analysis of water quality data from Total Iron and Total Cyanophytes shows the differences between the traditional generalized linear mixed models and rank regression models. Our analysis also demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models for analyzing nonnormal data.

Supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of North and Central West Queensland

While, in the past, sheep have been predominantly reared and grazed in western Queensland for wool, interest in the sheep meat industry increased when wool prices became depressed. For north west and central west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. The capability of the Mitchell grass downs to provide sufficient numbers of export quality sheep under the variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources has been simulated. Sheep numbers were found to be insufficient to maintain a consistent supply for live export. However, raising marking rates and lowering mortalities effectively increased reproductive performance to a level at which a surplus for export could be sustainable. Other practices might be required for the liveweight specifications to be met. 24th Biennial Conference. Adelaide, South Australia.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

ESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN AN EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED IN A DECIDUOUS FOREST OF SOUTH INDIA

Forested areas play a dominant role in the global hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration is a dominant component most of the time catching up with the rainfall. Though there are sophisticated methods which are available for its estimation, a simple reliable tool is needed so that a good budgeting could be made. Studies have established that evapotranspiration in forested areas is much higher than in agricultural areas. Latitude, type of forests, climate and geological characteristics also add to the complexity of its estimation. Few studies have compared different methods of evapotranspiration on forested watersheds in semi arid tropical forests. In this paper a comparative study of different methods of estimation of evapotranspiration is made with reference to the actual measurements made using all parameter climatological station data of a small deciduous forested watershed of Mulehole (area of 4.5 km2 ), South India. Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using ten physically based and empirical methods. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been calculated through computation of water balance through SWAT model. The Penman-Montieth method has been used as a benchmark to compare the estimates arrived at using various methods. The AET calculated shows good agreement with the curve for evapotranspiration for forests worldwide. Error estimates have been made with respect to Penman-Montieth method. This study could give an idea of the errors involved whenever methods with limited data are used and also show the use indirect methods in estimation of Evapotranspiration which is more suitable for regional scale studies.

Changes in Employment Security in Asia

Much attention has been focused on the decline of traditional employment structures in the advanced industrial countries. Lesser attention has focused on this issue in Asia. In this comparative essay, the authors examine the changes in employment security in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. They focus on the historical development of the employment security social contract in these countries, noting the institutional features that gave rise to it in each country. They then examine the resilience of employment security norms under recent economic pressures. They find there has been substantial erosion in employment security during the 1990s in all four countries due to both increased competition and economic liberalization, although there is some variation in both the rate of erosion as well as the prospects for revival of the social contract. They assess the possibilities of a revival in this particular social contract, and the impact of the erosion on unorganized workers.

A Guide to Disability Statistics from the National Health Interview Survey – Disability Supplement

The National Health Interview Survey - Disability supplement (NHIS-D) provides information that can be used to understand myriad topics related to health and disability. The survey provides comprehensive information on multiple disability conceptualizations that can be identified using information about health conditions (both physical and mental), activity limitations, and service receipt (e.g. SSI, SSDI, Vocational Rehabilitation). This provides flexibility for researchers in defining populations of interest. This paper provides a description of the data available in the NHIS-D and information on how the data can be used to better understand the lives of people with disabilities.

Zero tillage and nitrogen fertiliser application in wheat and barley on a Vertosol in a marginal cropping area of south-west Queensland

Winter cereal cropping is marginal in south-west Queensland because of low and variable rainfall and declining soil fertility. Increasing the soil water storage and the efficiency of water and nitrogen (N) use is essential for sustainable cereal production. The effect of zero tillage and N fertiliser application on these factors was evaluated in wheat and barley from 1996 to 2001 on a grey Vertosol. Annual rainfall was above average in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 and below average in 2000 and 2001. Due to drought, no crop was grown in the 2000 winter cropping season. Zero tillage improved fallow soil water storage by a mean value of 20 mm over 4 years, compared with conventional tillage. However, mean grain yield and gross margin of wheat were similar under conventional and zero tillage. Wheat grain yield and/or grain protein increased with N fertiliser application in all years, resulting in an increase in mean gross margin over 5 years from $86/ha, with no N fertiliser applied, to $250/ha, with N applied to target ≥13% grain protein. A similar increase in gross margin occurred in barley where N fertiliser was applied to target malting grade. The highest N fertiliser application rate in wheat resulted in a residual benefit to soil N supply for the following crop. This study has shown that profitable responses to N fertiliser addition in wheat and barley can be obtained on long-term cultivated Vertosols in south-west Queensland when soil water reserves at sowing are at least 60% of plant available water capacity, or rainfall during the growing season is above average. An integrative benchmark for improved N fertiliser management appears to be the gross margin/water use of ~$1/ha.mm. Greater fallow soil water storage or crop water use efficiency under zero tillage has the potential to improve winter cereal production in drier growing seasons than experienced during the period of this study.

Fate of potassium fertilisers applied to clay soils under rainfed grain cropping in south-east Queensland, Australia

Negative potassium (K) balances in all broadacre grain cropping systems in northern Australia are resulting in a decline in the plant-available reserves of K and necessitating a closer examination of strategies to detect and respond to developing K deficiency in clay soils. Grain growers on the Red Ferrosol soils have increasingly encountered K deficiency over the last 10 years due to lower available K reserves in these soils in their native condition. However, the problem is now increasingly evident on the medium-heavy clay soils (Black and Grey Vertosols) and is made more complicated by the widespread adoption of direct drill cropping systems and the resulting strong strati. cation of available K reserves in the top 0.05-0.1 m of the soil pro. le. This paper reports glasshouse studies examining the fate of applied K fertiliser in key cropping soils of the inland Burnett region of south-east Queensland, and uses the resultant understanding of K dynamics to interpret results of field trials assessing the effectiveness of K application strategies in terms of K availability to crop plants. At similar concentrations of exchangeable K (K-exch), soil solution K concentrations and activity of K in the soil solution (AR(K)) varied by 6-7-fold between soil types. When K-exch arising from different rates of fertiliser application was expressed as a percentage of the effective cation exchange capacity (i.e. K saturation), there was evidence of greater selective adsorption of K on the exchange complex of Red Ferrosols than Black and Grey Vertosols or Brown Dermosols. Both soil solution K and AR(K) were much less responsive to increasing K-exch in the Black Vertosols; this is indicative of these soils having a high K buffer capacity (KBC). These contrasting properties have implications for the rate of diffusive supply of K to plant roots and the likely impact of K application strategies (banding v. broadcast and incorporation) on plant K uptake. Field studies investigating K application strategies (banding v. broadcasting) and the interaction with the degree of soil disturbance/mixing of different soil types are discussed in relation to K dynamics derived from glasshouse studies. Greater propensity to accumulate luxury K in crop biomass was observed in a Brown Ferrosol with a KBC lower than that of a Black Vertosol, consistent with more efficient diffusive supply to plant roots in the Ferrosol. This luxury K uptake, when combined with crops exhibiting low proportional removal of K in the harvested product (i.e. low K harvest index coarse grains and winter cereals) and residue retention, can lead to rapid re-development of stratified K profiles. There was clear evidence that some incorporation of K fertiliser into soil was required to facilitate root access and crop uptake, although there was no evidence of a need to incorporate K fertiliser any deeper than achieved by conventional disc tillage (i.e. 0.1-0.15 m). Recovery of fertiliser K applied in deep (0.25-0.3 m) bands in combination with N and P to facilitate root proliferation was quite poor in Red Ferrosols and Grey or Black Vertosols with moderate effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC, 25-35 cmol(+)/kg), was reasonable but not enough to overcome K deficiency in a Brown Dermosol (ECEC 11 cmol(+)/kg), but was quite good on a Black Vertosol (ECEC 50-60 cmol(+)/kg). Collectively, results suggest that frequent small applications of K fertiliser, preferably with some soil mixing, is an effective fertiliser application strategy on lighter clay soils with low KBC and an effective diffusive supply mechanism. Alternately, concentrated K bands and enhanced root proliferation around them may be a more effective strategy in Vertosol soils with high KBC and limited diffusive supply. Further studies to assess this hypothesis are needed.

Validating economic and environmental sustainability of a short-term summer forage legume in dryland wheat cropping systems in south-west Queensland.

The present study set out to test the hypothesis through field and simulation studies that the incorporation of short-term summer legumes, particularly annual legume lablab (Lablab purpureus cv. Highworth), in a fallow-wheat cropping system will improve the overall economic and environmental benefits in south-west Queensland. Replicated, large plot experiments were established at five commercial properties by using their machineries, and two smaller plot experiments were established at two intensively researched sites (Roma and St George). A detailed study on various other biennial and perennial summer forage legumes in rotation with wheat and influenced by phosphorus (P) supply (10 and 40 kg P/ha) was also carried out at the two research sites. The other legumes were lucerne (Medicago sativa), butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea) and burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum). After legumes, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) was sown into the legume stubble. The annual lablab produced the highest forage yield, whereas germination, establishment and production of other biennial and perennial legumes were poor, particularly in the red soil at St George. At the commercial sites, only lablab-wheat rotations were experimented, with an increased supply of P in subsurface soil (20 kg P/ha). The lablab grown at the commercial sites yielded between 3 and 6 t/ha forage yield over 2-3 month periods, whereas the following wheat crop with no applied fertiliser yielded between 0.5 to 2.5 t/ha. The wheat following lablab yielded 30% less, on average, than the wheat in a fallow plot, and the profitability of wheat following lablab was slightly higher than that of the wheat following fallow because of greater costs associated with fallow management. The profitability of the lablab-wheat phase was determined after accounting for the input costs and additional costs associated with the management of fallow and in-crop herbicide applications for a fallow-wheat system. The economic and environmental benefits of forage lablab and wheat cropping were also assessed through simulations over a long-term climatic pattern by using economic (PreCAPS) and biophysical (Agricultural Production Systems Simulation, APSIM) decision support models. Analysis of the long-term rainfall pattern (70% in summer and 30% in winter) and simulation studies indicated that ~50% time a wheat crop would not be planted or would fail to produce a profitable crop (grain yield less than 1 t/ha) because of less and unreliable rainfall in winter. Whereas forage lablab in summer would produce a profitable crop, with a forage yield of more than 3 t/ha, ~90% times. Only 14 wheat crops (of 26 growing seasons, i.e. 54%) were profitable, compared with 22 forage lablab (of 25 seasons, i.e. 90%). An opportunistic double-cropping of lablab in summer and wheat in winter is also viable and profitable in 50% of the years. Simulation studies also indicated that an opportunistic lablab-wheat cropping can reduce the potential runoff+drainage by more than 40% in the Roma region, leading to improved economic and environmental benefits.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Laboratory-rearing Techniques for Tephritid Fruit Flies in the South Pacific

Laboratory colonies of 15 economically important species of multi-host fruit flies (Diptera:Tephritidae) have been established in eight South Pacific island countries for the purpose of undertaking biological studies, particularly host status testing and research on quarantine treatments. Laboratory rearing techniques are based on the development of artificial diets for larvae consisting predominately of the pulp of locally available fruits including pawpaw, breadfruit and banana. The pawpaw diet is the standard diet and is used in seven countries for rearing 11 species. Diet ingredients are standard proportions of fruit pulp, hydrolysed protein and a bacterial and fungal inhibitor. The diet is particularly suitable for post-harvest treatment studies when larvae of known age are required. Another major development in the laboratory rearing system is the use of pure strains of Enterobacteriaceae bacterial cultures as important adult-feeding supplements. These bacterial cultures are dissected out of the crop of wild females, isolated by sub-culturing, and identified before supply to adults on peptone yeast extract agar plates. Most species are egged using thin, plastic receptacles perforated with 1 mm oviposition holes, with fruit juice or larval diet smeared internally as an oviposition stimulant. Laboratory rearing techniques have been standardised for all of the Pacific countries. Quality control monitoring is based on acceptable ranges in per cent egg hatch, pupal weight and pupal mortality. Colonies are rejuvenated every 6 to 12 months by crossing wild males with laboratory-reared females and vice versa. The standard rearing techniques, equipment and ingredients used in collecting, establishment, maintenance and quality control of these fruit fly species are detailed in this paper.