Parties, governments and pollsters: A new form of patronage?

In its first term, the Howard government hired Australasian Research Strategies (ARS), headed by pollster Mark Textor, to conduct market research for several Commonwealth departments and agencies. This was, the Labor Opposition claimed, a case of the Liberals handing jobs to their 'mates'. Textor played a key role in the Liberals' 1996 and 1998 federal election campaigns. However, Labor's attack rings hollow since in the 1980s the Hawke government similarly contracted Rod Cameron's ANOP to conduct opinion research for Commonwealth departments and agencies. At the time Cameron was Labor's strategic pollster and centrally involved in planning Labor election campaigns. On both sides of Australian politics, governments have begun to channel patronage towards their party's pollsters. In this research note, we suggest that this development cannot be explained as 'jobs for the boys'. Instead, this new form of patronage has its roots in the vital role that pollsters now play in guiding election campaigns, and in the commercial reality that Australian politics provides too little work to sustain specialist political pollsters. Parties in government now appear to utilise incumbency to sustain an ongoing relationship with the commercial polling organisations like ANOP and ARS to whom they will entrust much of the planning of their campaign for re-election.

Stay-green: A consequence of the balance between supply and demand for nitrogen during grain filling?

Retention of green leaf area in grain sorghum under post-anthesis drought, known as stay-green, is associated with greater biomass production, lodging resistance and yield. The stay-green phenomenon can be examined at a cell, leaf, or whole plant level. At a cell level, the retention of chloroplast proteins such as LHCP2, OEC33 and Rubisco until late in senescence has been reported in sorghum containing the KS19 source of stay-green, indicating that photosynthesis may be maintained for longer during senescence in these genotypes. At a leaf level, longevity of photosynthetic apparatus is intimately related to nitrogen (N) status. At a whole plant level, stay-green can be viewed as a consequence of the balance between N demand by the grain and N supply during grain filling. To examine some of these concepts, nine hybrids varying in the B35 and KS19 sources of stay-green were grown under a postanthesis water deficit. Genotypic variation in delayed onset and reduced rate of leaf senescence were explained by differences in specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) and N uptake during grain filling. Matching N supply from age-related senescence and N uptake during grain tilling with grain N demand found that the shortfall in N supply for grain filling was greater in the senescent than stay-green hybrids, resulting in more accelerated leaf senescence in the former. We hypothesise that increased N uptake by stay-green hybrids is a result of greater biomass accumulation during grain filling in response to increased sink demand (higher grain numbers) which, in turn, is the result of increased radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency due to higher SLN. Delayed leaf senescence resulting from higher SLN should, in turn, allow snore carbon and nitrogen to be allocated to the roots of stay-green hybrids during grain filling, thereby maintaining a greater capacity to extract N from the soil compared with senescent hybrids.

Economics teaching in Australian universities: Rewards and outcomes

This paper presents evidence from two survey's to help explain the poor ratings consistently given to the teaching of economics at Australian universities. The evidence suggests that the Poor ratings of economics teaching can be attributed to two related factors: inappropriate pedagogical practices and lack of rewards for allocating additional time to teaching. The survey data oil pedagogy, in economics consist of 205 responses from graduates from two Queensland universities. The time elapsed since graduation ranges from 1 to 10 years. The survey data on academics' time allocation consist of 290 responses from academic economists across a wide range of Australian universities.

An heuristic approach for optimal location of gas supply units in transportation system

The best places to locate the Gas Supply Units (GSUs) on a natural gas systems and their optimal allocation to loads are the key factors to organize an efficient upstream gas infrastructure. The number of GSUs and their optimal location in a gas network is a decision problem that can be formulated as a linear programming problem. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable location model, reflecting real-world operations and constraints of a natural gas system. This paper presents a heuristic model, based on lagrangean approach, developed for finding the optimal GSUs location on a natural gas network, minimizing expenses and maximizing throughput and security of supply.The location model is applied to the Iberian high pressure natural gas network, a system modelised with 65 demand nodes. These nodes are linked by physical and virtual pipelines – road trucks with gas in liquefied form. The location model result shows the best places to locate, with the optimal demand allocation and the most economical gas transport mode: by pipeline or by road truck.

Soil remediation time to achieve clean-up goals II: influence of natural organic matter and water contents

This work reports a relatively rapid procedure for the forecasting of the remediation time (RT) of sandy soils contaminated with cyclohexane using vapour extraction. The RT estimated through the mathematical fitting of experimental results was compared with that of real soils. The main objectives were: (i) to predict the RT of soils with natural organic matter (NOM) and water contents different from those used in experiments; and (ii) to analyse the time and efficiency of remediation, and the distribution of contaminants into the soil matrix after the remediation process, according to the soil contents of: (ii1) NOM; and (ii2) water. For sandy soils with negligible clay contents, artificially contaminated with cyclohexane before vapour extraction, it was concluded that: (i) if the NOM and water contents belonged to the range of the prepared soils, the RT of real soils could be predicted with relative differences not higher than 12%; (ii1) the increase of NOM content from 0% to 7.5% increased the RT (1.8–13 h) and decreased the remediation efficiency (RE) (99–90%) and (ii2) the increase of soil water content from 0% to 6% increased the RT (1.8–4.9 h) and decreased the RE (99–97%). NOM increases the monolayer capacity leading to a higher sorption into the solid phase. Increasing of soil water content reduces the mass transfer coefficient between phases. Concluding, NOM and water contents influence negatively the remediation process, turning it less efficient and more time consuming, and consequently more expensive.

An Explicit GTS allocation algorithm for IEEE 802.15.4

The IEEE 802.15.4 standard provides appealing features to simultaneously support real-time and non realtime traffic, but it is only capable of supporting real-time communications from at most seven devices. Additionally, it cannot guarantee delay bounds lower than the superframe duration. Motivated by this problem, in this paper we propose an Explicit Guaranteed time slot Sharing and Allocation scheme (EGSA) for beacon-enabled IEEE 802.15.4 networks. This scheme is capable of providing tighter delay bounds for real-time communications by splitting the Contention Free access Period (CFP) into smaller mini time slots and by means of a new guaranteed bandwidth allocation scheme for a set of devices with periodic messages. At the same the novel bandwidth allocation scheme can maximize the duration of the CFP for non real-time communications. Performance analysis results show that the EGSA scheme works efficiently and outperforms competitor schemes both in terms of guaranteed delay and bandwidth utilization.

Run-time monitoring approach for the shark kernel

Typically common embedded systems are designed with high resource constraints. Static designs are often chosen to address very specific use cases. On contrast, a dynamic design must be used if the system must supply a real-time service where the input may contain factors of indeterminism. Thus, adding new functionality on these systems is often accomplished by higher development time, tests and costs, since new functionality push the system complexity and dynamics to a higher level. Usually, these systems have to adapt themselves to evolving requirements and changing service requests. In this perspective, run-time monitoring of the system behaviour becomes an important requirement, allowing to dynamically capturing the actual scheduling progress and resource utilization. For this to succeed, operating systems need to expose their internal behaviour and state, making it available to the external applications, usually using a run-time monitoring mechanism. However, such mechanism can impose a burden in the system itself if not wisely used. In this paper we explore this problem and propose a framework, which is intended to provide this run-time mechanism whilst achieving code separation, run-time efficiency and flexibility for the final developer.

Difficulties in access and estimates of public beds in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.

A Generic and Compositional Framework for Multicore Response Time Analysis

23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France. Best Paper Award Nominee

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Modelling resilience in supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment. Keywords: Equilibrium

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment.

Financial development, labor and market regulations and growth

This paper investigates the importance that market regulation and financial imperfections have on firm growth. We analyse institutions af- fecting labor market as Employment Protection Laws (EP) and Product Market Regulation (PM). We show that together with the beneficial effects of financial development, a firm will get less financing, and thus investless, in a weak financial market (finance effect), the strictness of product and labor market regulations also affect firm growth (labor effect). In particular, we show that the stricter the rules the more detrimental the influence on growth in sectoral value added for a large number of countries. We also show that the labor effect overcomes the positive finance effect.