967 resultados para Intractable Likelihood
Resumo:
In clinical settings impulsivity refers to a symptom of psychiatric disorder, but nonclinically oriented research treats impulsivity as a personality and temperament dimension. This prospective study examined whether impulsivity predicts adverse health-related behaviour and increased risk of health problems in a large, nonclinical sample of 5433 subjects working in 12 Finnish hospitals. The data were collected using two questionnaire surveys at a 2-year interval. After controlling for alcohol use at baseline, higher impulsivity predicted increased alcohol consumption at follow-up in both genders (p < .01) and was associated with increased likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker or taking up smoking (p < .05). Impulsivity also predicted an increased number of cigarettes smoked per day in the follow-up among women (p < .001), but not among men, although adjustment for the number of cigarettes smoked at baseline attenuated these associations (p = .08 for women). In men, higher impulsivity was associated with shorter sleep duration and waking up several times per night independent of baseline characteristics (p < .01), whereas in women, higher impulsivity predicted difficulty in falling asleep and waking up feeling tired after the usual amount of sleep (p < .05). In women, these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for pre-existing somatic and psychiatric diseases. Finally, higher impulsivity was associated with an increased 2-year incidence of physician-diagnosed peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21 - 4.82) and onset of depression (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.28 - 2.97) after adjustment for a variety of baseline covariates. In conclusion, this study shows that in a nonclinical population, impulsivity appears to be a risk factor for various unhealthy behaviour and health problems.
Resumo:
In this paper, the trajectory tracking control of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUVs) in six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOFs) is addressed. It is assumed that the system parameters are unknown and the vehicle is underactuated. An adaptive controller is proposed, based on Lyapunov׳s direct method and the back-stepping technique, which interestingly guarantees robustness against parameter uncertainties. The desired trajectory can be any sufficiently smooth bounded curve parameterized by time even if consist of straight line. In contrast with the majority of research in this field, the likelihood of actuators׳ saturation is considered and another adaptive controller is designed to overcome this problem, in which control signals are bounded using saturation functions. The nonlinear adaptive control scheme yields asymptotic convergence of the vehicle to the reference trajectory, in the presence of parametric uncertainties. The stability of the presented control laws is proved in the sense of Lyapunov theory and Barbalat׳s lemma. Efficiency of presented controller using saturation functions is verified through comparing numerical simulations of both controllers.
Resumo:
This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.
Resumo:
In Chapter 1, the literature relating to rabies virus and the rabies like lyssaviruses is reviewed. In Chapter 2, data are presented from 1170 diagnostic submissions for ABLV testing by fluorescent antibody test (Centocor FAT). All 27 non-bat submissions were ABLV-negative. Of 1143 bat accessions 74 (16%) were ABLV-positive, including 69 of 974 (7.1%) flying foxes (Pteropus spp.), 5 of 7 (71.4%) Saccolaimus flaviventris (Yellow-bellied sheathtail bats), none of 151 other microchiropteran bats, and none of 11 unidentified bats. Statistical analysis of data from 868 wild Black, Grey-headed, Little Red and Spectacled flying foxes (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus, P. scapulatus, and P. conspicillatus) indicated that three factors; species, health status and age were associated with significant (p< 0.001) differences in the proportion of ABLV-positive bats. Other factors including sex, whether the bat bit a person or animal, region, year, and season submitted, were not associated with ABLV. Case data for 74 ABLV-positive bats, including the circumstances in which they were found and clinical signs, is presented. In Chapter 3, the aetiological diagnosis was investigated for 100 consecutive flying fox submissions with neurological signs. ABLV (32%), spinal and head injuries (29%), and neuro-angiostrongylosis (18%) accounted for most neurological syndromes in flying foxes. No evidence of lead poisoning was found in unwell (n=16) or healthy flying foxes (n=50). No diagnosis was reached for 16 cases, all of which were negative for ABLV by TaqMan PCR. The molecular diversity of ABLV was examined in Chapter 4 by sequencing 36 bases of the leader sequence, the entire N gene, and start of the P gene of 28 isolates from pteropid bats and 3 isolates from Yellow-bellied sheathtail (YBST) bats. Phylogenetic analysis indicated all ABLV isolates clustered together as a discrete group within the Lyssavirus genera closely related to rabies virus and European bat lyssavirus-2 isolates. The ABLV lineage consisted of two variants; one (ybst-ABLV) consisted of isolates only from YBST bats, the other (pteropid-ABLV) was common to Black, Grey-headed and Little Red flying foxes. No associations were found between the sequences and either the geographical location or year found, or individual flying fox species. In Chapter 5, 15 inocula prepared from the brains or salivary glands of naturally-infected bats were evaluated by intracerebral (IC) and footpad (FP) inoculation of Quackenbush mice in order to select and characterize a highly virulent inoculum for further use in bats (Inoculum 5). In Chapter 6, nine Grey-headed flying foxes were inoculated with 105.2 to 105.5 MICED50 of Inoculum 5 divided into four sites, left footpad, pectoral muscle, temporal muscle and muzzle. Another bat was inoculated with half this dose divided into the footpad and pectoral muscle only. Seven of 10 bats developed clinical disease of 1 to 4 days duration between PI-days 10 and 19 and were shown to be ABL-positive by FAT, HAM immunoperoxidase staining, virus isolation in mice, and TaqMan PCR. Five of the seven bats displayed overt aggression, one died during a seizure, and one showed intractable agitation, pacing, tremors, and ataxia. Viral antigen was demonstrated throughout the central and peripheral nervous systems and in the epithelial cells of the submandibular salivary glands (n=4). All affected bats had mild to moderate non-suppurative meningoencephalitis and severe ganglioneuritis. No ABLV was detected in three bats that remained well until the end of the experiment on day 82. One survivor developed a strong but transient antibody response. In Chapter 7, the relative virulence of inocula prepared from the brains and salivary glands of experimentally infected flying foxes was evaluated in mice by IC and FP inoculation and TaqMan assay. The effects in mice were correlated to the TaqMan CT value and indicated a crude association between virulence and CT value that has potential application in the selection of inocula. In Chapter 8, 36 Black and Grey-headed flying foxes were vaccinated with one (day 0) or two (+ day 28) doses of Nobivac rabies vaccine and co-vaccinated with keyhole limpet haemocyanin (KLH). All bats responded to the Nobivac vaccine with a rabies-RFFIT titer > 0.5 IU/mL that is nominally indicative of protective immunity. Plasma from bats with rabies titres >2 IU/mL had cross-neutralising ABLV titres >1:154. A specifically developed ELISA detected a strong but transient response to KLH.
Resumo:
Avian haemophili demonstrating in vitro satellitic growth, also referred to as the V-factor or NAD requirement, have mainly been classified with Avibacterium paragallinarum (Haemophilus paragallinarum), Avibacterium avium (Pasteurella avium), Avibacterium volantium (Pasteurella volantium) and Avibacterium sp. A (Pasteurella species A). The aim of the present study was to assess the taxonomic position of 18 V-factor-requiring isolates of unclassified Haemophilus-like organisms isolated from galliforme, anseriforme, columbiforme and gruiforme birds as well as kestrels and psittacine birds including budgerigars by conventional phenotypic tests and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. All isolates shared phenotypical characteristics which allowed classification with Pasteurellaceae. Haemolysis of bovine red blood cells was negative. Haemin (X-factor) was not required for growth. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis including bootstrap analysis showed that six isolates were related to the avian 16S rRNA group and were classified as Avibacterium according to 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Surprisingly, the other 12 isolates were unrelated to Avibacterium. Two isolates were unrelated to any of the known 16S rRNA groups of Pasteurellaceae. Two isolates were related to Volucribacter of the avian 16S rRNA group. Seven isolates belonged to the Testudinis 16S rRNA group and out of these, two isolates were closely related to taxa 14 and 32 of Bisgaard, whereas four other isolates were found to form a genus-like group distantly related to taxon 40 and one isolated remained distantly related to other members of the Testudinis group. One isolate was closely related to taxon 26 (a member of Actinobacillus sensu stricto). The study documented major genetic diversity among V-factor-requiring avian isolates beyond the traditional interpretation that they only belong to Avibacterium, underlining the limited value of satellitic growth for identification of avian members of Pasteurellaceae. Our study also emphasized that these organisms will never be isolated without the use of special media satisfying the V-factor requirement.
Resumo:
A replicated trial to determine effective chemical control methods for the invasive species, basket asparagus (Asparagus aethiopicus L. cv. Sprengeri) was conducted at Currumbin Hill, Queensland, from June 1999 to August 2000. Four herbicides (metsulfuron-methyl, dicamba, glyphosate and diesel) were applied at different times of the year (winter, spring, summer and autumn). Neat diesel applied to adult crowns effectively killed basket asparagus. However, germination of basket asparagus and other weeds was not prevented. An overall spray of 0.06 g metsulfuron-methyl (0.1 g Brush-Off®) + 1 mL BS 1000® L-1 water gave slower but more selective long-term control of basket asparagus when compared to diesel, especially when applied in winter and spring. High rates of foliar applied dicamba were most effective in spring and glyphosate splatter gunned on base of stems in autumn. The combination of increased selectivity, ease of application and likelihood of reduced environmental impacts on native plants, other than coast she-oak (Casuarina equisetifolia L. var. incana Benth.), of metsulfuron-methyl makes it more suitable for controlling large infestations of basket asparagus.
Resumo:
Background/Aim: To investigate the role of eccentric knee flexor strength, between-limb imbalance and biceps femoris long head (BFlh) fascicle length on the risk of a future hamstring strain injury (HSI). Methods: Elite soccer players (n=152) from eight different teams participated. Eccentric knee flexor strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise and BFlh fascicle length were assessed at the beginning of pre-season. The occurrences of a HSI following this were recorded by the team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data, and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results: Twenty-seven new HSIs were reported. Eccentric knee flexor strength below 337N (RR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 17.5) and BFlh fascicles shorter than 10.56cm (RR = 4.1; 95% CI=1.9 to 8.7) significantly increased the risk of a subsequent HSI. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant effects when combinations of age, previous history of HSI, eccentric knee flexor strength and BFlh fascicle length were explored. From these analyses the likelihood of a future HSI in older athletes or those with a previous HSI history was reduced if high levels of eccentric knee flexor strength and longer BFlh fascicles were present. Conclusions: The presence of short BFlh fascicles and low levels of eccentric strength in elite soccer players increase the risk of a future HSI. The greater risk of a future HSI in older players or those with a previous HSI is reduced when they possess longer BFlh fascicles and high levels of eccentric strength.
Resumo:
Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.
Resumo:
There has been recent interest in determining the upper limits to the feasibility of weed eradication. Although a number of disparate factors determine the success of an eradication program, ultimately eradication feasibility must be viewed in the context of the amount of investment that can be made. The latter should reflect the hazard posed by an invasion, with greater investment justified by greater threats. In simplest terms, the effort (and hence investment) to achieve weed eradication comprises the detection effort required to delimit an invasion plus the search and control effort required to prevent reproduction until extirpation occurs over the entire infested area. The difficulty of estimating the required investment at the commencement of a weed eradication program (as well as during periodic reviews) is a serious problem. Bioeconomics show promise in determining the optimal approach to managing weed invasions, notwithstanding ongoing difficulties in estimating the costs and benefits of eradication and alternative invasion management strategies. A flexible approach to the management of weed invasions is needed, allowing for the adoption of another strategy when it becomes clear that the probability of eradication is low, owing to resourcing or intractable technical issues. Whether the considerable progress that has been achieved towards eradication of the once massive witchweed invasion can be duplicated for other weeds of agricultural systems will depend to a large extent upon investment (. $250 million over 50 yr in this instance). Weeds of natural ecosystems seem destined to remain more difficult eradication targets for a variety of reasons, including higher impedance to eradication, more difficulty in valuing the benefits arising from eradication, and possibly less willingness to pay from society at large.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND OR CONTEXT The higher education sector plays an important role in encouraging students into the STEM pipeline through fostering partnerships with schools, building on universities long tradition in engagement and outreach to secondary schools. Numerous activities focus on integrated STEM learning experiences aimed at developing conceptual scientific and mathematical knowledge with opportunities for students to show and develop skills in working with each other and actively engaging in discussion, decision making and collaborative problem solving. (NAS, 2013; AIG, 2015; OCS, 2014). This highlights the importance of the development and delivery of engaging integrated STEM activities connected to the curriculum to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers and generally preparing students for post-secondary success. The broad research objective is to gain insight into which engagement activities and to what level they influence secondary school students’ selection of STEM-related career choices at universities. PURPOSE OR GOAL To evaluate and determine the effectiveness of STEM engagement activities impacting student decision making in choosing a STEM-related degree choice at university. APPROACH A survey was conducted with first-year domestic students studying STEM-related fieldswithin the Science and Engineering Faculty at Queensland University of Technology. Of the domestic students commencing in 2015, 29% responded to the survey. The survey was conducted using Survey Monkey and included a variety of questions ranging from academic performance at school to inspiration for choosing a STEM degree. Responses were analysed on a range of factors to evaluate the influence on students’ decisions to study STEM and whether STEM high school engagement activities impacted these decisions. To achieve this the timing of decision making for students choice in study area, degree, and university is compared with the timing of STEM engagement activities. DISCUSSION Statistical analysis using SPSS was carried out on survey data looking at reasons for choosing STEM degrees in terms of gender, academic performance and major influencers in their decision making. It was found that students choose their university courses based on what subjects they enjoyed and exceled at in school. These results found a high correlation between enjoyment of a school subject and their interest in pursuing this subject at university and beyond. Survey results indicated students are heavily influenced by their subject teachers and parents in their choice of STEM-related disciplines. In terms of career choice and when students make their decision, 60% have decided on a broad area of study by year 10, whilst only 15% had decided on a specific course and 10% had decided on which university. The timing of secondary STEM engagement activities is seen as a critical influence on choosing STEM disciplines or selection of senior school subjects with 80% deciding on specific degree between year 11 and 12 and 73% making a decision on which university in year 12. RECOMMENDATIONS/IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSION Although the data does not support that STEM engagement activities increase the likelihood of STEM-related degree choice, the evidence suggests the students who have participated in STEM activities associate their experiences with their choice to pursue a STEM-related course. It is important for universities to continue to provide quality engaging and inspirational learning experiences in STEM, to identify and build on students’ early interest and engagement, increase STEM knowledge and awareness, engage them in interdisciplinary project-based STEM practices, and provide them with real-world application experiences to sustain their interest.
Resumo:
The spotted gum species complex represents a group of four eucalypt hardwood taxa that have a native range that spans the east coast of Australia, with a morphological cline from Victoria to northern Queensland. Of this group, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) is widespread in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales. It is currently the most commonly harvested native hardwood in Queensland. However, little basic knowledge of the reproductive biology of the species is available to inform genetic improvement and resource management programmes. Here we take an integrative approach, using both field and molecular data, to identify ecological factors important to mating patterns in native populations of CCV. Field observation of pollinator visitation and flowering phenology of 20 trees showed that foraging behaviour of pollinator guilds varies depending on flowering phenology and canopy structure. A positive effect of tree mean flowering effort was found on insect visitation, while bat visitation was predicted by tree height and by the number of trees simultaneously bearing flowers. Moreover, introduced honeybees were observed frequently, performing 73% of detected flower visits. Conversely, nectar-feeding birds and mammals were observed sporadically with lorikeets and honeyeaters each contributing to 11% of visits. Fruit bats, represented solely by the grey-headed flying fox, performed less than 2% of visits. Genotyping at six microsatellite markers in 301 seeds from 17 families sampled from four of Queensland's native forests showed that CCV displays a mixed-mating system that is mostly outcrossing (tm = 0.899 ± 0.021). Preferential effective pollination from near-neighbours was detected by means of maximum-likelihood paternity analysis with up to 16% of reproduction events resulting from selfing. Forty to 48% of fertilising pollen was also carried from longer distance (>60 m). Marked differences in foraging behaviour and visitation frequency between observed pollinator guilds suggests that the observed dichotomy of effective pollen movement in spotted gums may be due to frequent visit from introduced honeybees favouring geitonogamy and sporadic visits from honeyeaters and fruit bats resulting in potential long-distance pollinations.
Resumo:
The influence of professional identity and self-interest on the educational and career choices of the emerging Information and Communications Technology (ICT) workforce is considered in this thesis. Interviews were conducted with 52 ICT students from four Australian tertiary education institutions and the findings indicated that professional identity and self-interest should be considered together, rather than separately, to understand career decisions in relation to the ICT industry. Professional identity is associated with the accrual of symbolic resources including status and esteem, mastery, sense of belonging and attachment. By contrast, self-interest is associated with the perceived likelihood of the accrual of material (economic and social) resources.
Resumo:
Purpose This study aims to use opportunity as a theoretical lens to investigate how the spatio-temporal and social dimensions of the consumption environment create perceived opportunities for consumers to misbehave. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on routine activity theory and social impact theory, the authors use two experiments to demonstrate that spatio-temporal and social dimensions can explain consumer theft in retail settings. Findings Study 1 reveals mixed empirical support for the basic dimensions of routine activity theory, which posits that the opportunity to thieve is optimised when a motivated offender, suitable target and the absence of a capable formal guardian transpire in time and space. Extending the notion of guardianship, Study 2 tests social impact theory and shows that informal guardianship impacts the likelihood of theft under optimal routine activity conditions. Originality/value The study findings highlight important implications for academicians and retail managers: rather than focusing on the uncontrollable characteristics of thieving offenders, more controllable spatio-temporal and social factors of the retail environment can be actively monitored and manipulated to reduce perceived opportunities for consumer misbehaviour.
Resumo:
The requirement for Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian jurisdictions to ensure sustainable harvest of fish resources and their optimal use relies on robust information on the resource status. For grey mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) fisheries, each of these jurisdictions has their own management regime in their corresponding waters. The lack of information on stock structure of grey mackerel, however, means that the appropriate spatial scale of management is not known. As well, fishers require assurance of future sustainability to encourage investment and long-term involvement in a fishery that supplies lucrative overseas markets. These management and fisher-unfriendly circumstances must be viewed in the context of recent 3-fold increases in catches of grey mackerel along the Queensland east coast, combined with significant and increasing catches in other parts of the species' northern Australian range. Establishing the stock structure of grey mackerel would also immensely improve the relevance of resource assessments for fishery management of grey mackerel across northern Australia. This highlighted the urgent need for stock structure information for this species. The impetus for this project came from the strategic recommendations of the FRDC review by Ward and Rogers (2003), "Northern mackerel (Scombridae: Scomberomorus): current and future research needs" (Project No. 2002/096), which promoted the urgency for information on the stock structure of grey mackerel. In following these recommendations this project adopted a multi-technique and phased sampling approach as carried out by Buckworth et al (2007), who examined the stock structure of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, across northern Australia. The project objectives were to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel across their northern Australian range, and use this information to define management units and their appropriate spatial scales. We used multiple techniques concurrently to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel. These techniques were: genetic analyses (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA), otolith (ear bones) isotope ratios, parasite abundances, and growth parameters. The advantage of using this type of multi-technique approach was that each of the different methods is informative about the fish’s life history at different spatial and temporal scales. Genetics can inform about the evolutionary patterns as well as rates of mixing of fish from adjacent areas, while parasites and otolith microchemistry are directly influenced by the environment and so will inform about the patterns of movement during the fishes lifetime. Growth patterns are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Due to these differences the use of these techniques concurrently increases the likelihood of detecting different stocks where they exist. We adopted a phased sampling approach whereby sampling was carried out at broad spatial scales in the first year: east coast, eastern Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), western GoC, and the NW Northern Territory (NW NT). By comparing the fish samples from each of these locations, and using each of the techniques, we tested the null hypothesis that grey mackerel were comprised of a single homogeneous population across northern Australia. Having rejected the null hypothesis we re-sampled the 1st year locations to test for temporal stability in stock structure, and to assess stock structure at finer spatial scales. This included increased spatial coverage on the east coast, the GoC, and WA. From genetic approaches we determined that there at least four genetic stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia: WA, NW NT (Timor/Arafura), the GoC and the east Grey mackerel management units in northern Australia ix coast. All markers revealed concordant patterns showing WA and NW NT to be clearly divergent stocks. The mtDNA D-loop fragment appeared to have more power to resolve stock boundaries because it was able to show that the GoC and east coast QLD stocks were genetically differentiated. Patterns of stock structure on a finer scale, or where stock boundaries are located, were less clear. From otolith stable isotope analyses four major groups of S. semifasciatus were identified: WA, NT/GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Differences in the isotopic composition of whole otoliths indicate that these groups must have spent their life history in different locations. The magnitude of the difference between the groups suggests a prolonged separation period at least equal to the fish’s life span. The parasite abundance analyses, although did not include samples from WA, suggest the existence of at least four stocks of grey mackerel in northern Australia: NW NT, the GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Grey mackerel parasite fauna on the east coast suggests a separation somewhere between Townsville and Mackay. The NW NT region also appears to comprise a separate stock while within the GoC there exists a high degree of variability in parasite faunas among the regions sampled. This may be due to 1. natural variation within the GoC and there is one grey mackerel stock, or 2. the existence of multiple localised adult sub-stocks (metapopulations) within the GoC. Growth parameter comparisons were only possible from four major locations and identified the NW NT, the GoC, and the east coast as having different population growth characteristics. Through the use of multiple techniques, and by integrating the results from each, we were able to determine that there exist at least five stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia, with some likelihood of additional stock structuring within the GoC. The major management units determined from this study therefore were Western Australia, NW Northern Territory (Timor/Arafura), the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern east Queensland coast and central east Queensland coast. The management implications of these results indicate the possible need for management of grey mackerel fisheries in Australia to be carried out on regional scales finer than are currently in place. In some regions the spatial scales of management might continue as is currently (e.g. WA), while in other regions, such as the GoC and the east coast, managers should at least monitor fisheries on a more local scale dictated by fishing effort and assess accordingly. Stock assessments should also consider the stock divisions identified, particularly on the east coast and for the GoC, and use life history parameters particular to each stock. We also emphasise that where we have not identified different stocks does not preclude the possibility of the occurrence of further stock division. Further, this study did not, nor did it set out to, assess the status of each of the stocks identified. This we identify as a high priority action for research and development of grey mackerel fisheries, as well as a management strategy evaluation that incorporates the conclusions of this work. Until such time that these priorities are addressed, management of grey mackerel fisheries should be cognisant of these uncertainties, particularly for the GoC and the Queensland east coast.
Resumo:
The feasibility of state-wide eradication of 41 invasive plant taxa currently listed as ‘Class 1 declared pests’ under the Queensland Land Protection (Pest and Stock Route Management) Act 2002 was assessed using the predictive model ‘WeedSearch’. Results indicated that all but one species (Alternanthera philoxeroides) could be eradicated, provided sufficient funding and labour were available. Slightly less than one quarter (24.4%) (n = 10) of Class 1 weed taxa could be eradicated for less than $100 000 per taxon. An additional 43.9% (n = 18) could be eradicated for between $100 000 and $1M per taxon. Hence, 68.3% of Class 1 weed taxa (n = 28) could be eradicated for less than $1M per taxon. Eradication of 29.3% (n = 12) is predicted to cost more than $1M per taxon. Comparison of these WeedSearch outputs with either empirical analysis or results from a previous application of the model suggests that these costs may, in fact, be underestimates. Considering the likelihood that each weed will cost the state many millions of dollars in long-term losses (e.g. losses to primary production, environmental impacts and control costs), eradication seems a wise investment. Even where predicted costs are over $1M, eradication can still offer highly favourable benefit:cost ratios. The total (cumulative) cost of eradication of all 41 weed taxa is substantial; for all taxa, the estimated cost of eradication in the first year alone is $8 618 000. This study provides important information for policy makers, who must decide where to invest public funding.