EU Home Affairs Agencies and the Construction of EU Internal Security. CEPS Paper in Liberty and Security No. 53/December 2012

Regulatory agencies such as Europol, Frontex, Eurojust, CEPOL as well as bodies such as OLAF, have over the past decade become increasingly active within the institutional architecture constituting the EU’s Area of Freedom, Security and Justice and are now placed at the forefront of implementing and developing the EU’s internal security model. A prominent feature of agency activity is the large-scale proliferation of ‘knowledge’ on security threats via the production of policy tools such as threat assessments, risk analyses, periodic and situation reports. These instruments now play a critical role in providing the evidence-base that supports EU policymaking, with agency-generated ‘knowledge’ feeding political priority setting and decision-making within the EU’s new Internal Security Strategy (ISS). This paper examines the nature and purpose of knowledge generated by EU Home Affairs agencies. It asks where does this knowledge originate? How does it measure against criteria of objectivity, scientific rigour, reliability and accuracy? And how is it processed in order to frame threats, justify actions and set priorities under the ISS?

A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle

An intensification of the hydrological cycle is a likely consequence of global warming. But changes in the hydrological cycle could affect sea-surface temperature by modifying diffusive ocean heat transports. We investigate this mechanism by studying a coupled general circulation model sensitivity experiment in which the hydrological cycle is artificially amplified. We find that the amplified hydrological cycle depresses sea-surface temperature by enhancing ocean heat uptake in low latitudes. We estimate that a 10% increase in the hydrological cycle will contribute a basin-scale sea-surface temperature decrease of around 0.1°C away from high latitudes, with larger decreases locally. We conclude that an intensified hydrological cycle is likely to contribute a weak negative feedback to anthropogenic climate change.

Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

We describe the use of bivariate 3d empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in characterising low frequency variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Hadley Centre global climate model, HadCM3. We find that the leading two modes are well correlated with an index of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on decadal timescales, with the leading mode alone accounting for 54% of the decadal variance. Episodes of coherent oscillations in the sub-space of the leading EOFs are identified; these episodes are of great interest for the predictability of the THC, and could indicate the existence of different regimes of natural variability. The mechanism identified for the multi-decadal variability is an internal ocean mode, dominated by changes in convection in the Nordic Seas, which lead the changes in the MOC by a few years. Variations in salinity transports from the Arctic and from the North Atlantic are the main feedbacks which control the oscillation. This mode has a weak feedback onto the atmosphere and hence a surface climatic influence. Interestingly, some of these climate impacts lead the changes in the overturning. There are also similarities to observed multi-decadal climate variability.

How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?

Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

A calibrated, non-invasive method for measuring the internal interface height field at high resolution in the rotating, two-layer annulus

We describe a remote sensing method for measuring the internal interface height field in a rotating, two-layer annulus laboratory experiment. The method is non-invasive, avoiding the possibility of an interaction between the flow and the measurement device. The height fields retrieved are accurate and highly resolved in both space and time. The technique is based on a flow visualization method developed by previous workers, and relies upon the optical rotation properties of the working liquids. The previous methods returned only qualitative interface maps, however. In the present study, a technique is developed for deriving quantitative maps by calibrating height against the colour fields registered by a camera which views the flow from above. We use a layer-wise torque balance analysis to determine the equilibrium interface height field analytically, in order to derive the calibration curves. With the current system, viewing an annulus of outer radius 125 mm and depth 250 mm from a distance of 2 m, the inferred height fields have horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions of up to 0.2 mm, 1 mm and 0.04 s, respectively.

Comparison of subcellular partitioning, distribution, and internal speciation of Cu between Cu-tolerant and naive populations of Dendrodrilus rubidus Savigny

When considering contaminated site ecology and ecological risk assessment a key question is whether organisms that appear unaffected by accumulation of contaminants are tolerant or resistant to those contaminants. A population of Dendrodrilus rubidus Savigny earthworms from the Coniston Copper Mines, an area of former Cu mining, exhibit increased tolerance and accumulation of Cu relative to a nearby non-Cu exposed population. Distribution of total Cu between different body parts (posterior, anterior, body wall) of the two populations was determined after a 14 day exposure to 250 mg Cu kg(-1) in Cu-amended soil. Cu concentrations were greater in Coniston earthworms but relative proportions of Cu in different body parts were the same between populations. Cu speciation was determined using extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS). Cu was coordinated to 0 atoms in the exposure soil but to S atoms in the earthworms. There was no difference in this speciation between the different earthworm populations. In another experiment earthworms were exposed to a range of Cu concentrations (200-700 mg Cu kg(-1)). Subcellular partitioning of accumulated Cu was determined. Coniston earthworms accumulated more Cu but relative proportions of Cu in the different fractions (cytosol > granular > tissue fragments, cell membranes, and intact cells) were the same between populations. Results suggest that Coniston D. rubidus are able to survive in the Cu-rich Coniston Copper Mines soil through enlargement of the same Cu storage reservoirs that exist in a nearby non-Cu exposed population.