Game Theoretic Bidding Strategies for Auctions in Green Electricity Markets

Electricity markets in the United States presently employ an auction mechanism to determine the dispatch of power generation units. In this market design, generators submit bid prices to a regulation agency for review, and the regulator conducts an auction selection in such a way that satisfies electricity demand. Most regulators currently use an auction selection method that minimizes total offer costs ["bid cost minimization" (BCM)] to determine electric dispatch. However, recent literature has shown that this method may not minimize consumer payments, and it has been shown that an alternative selection method that directly minimizes total consumer payments ["payment cost minimization" (PCM)] may benefit social welfare in the long term. The objective of this project is to further investigate the long term benefit of PCM implementation and determine whether it can provide lower costs to consumers. The two auction selection methods are expressed as linear constraint programs and are implemented in an optimization software package. Methodology for game theoretic bidding simulation is developed using EMCAS, a real-time market simulator. Results of a 30-day simulation showed that PCM reduced energy costs for consumers by 12%. However, this result will be cross-checked in the future with two other methods of bid simulation as proposed in this paper.

Ahead of the Game: Middle and Upper Palaeolithic Hunting Behaviors in the Southern Caucasus

Over the past several decades a variety of models have been proposed to explain perceived behavioral and cognitive differences between Neanderthals and modern humans. A key element in many of these models and one often used as a proxy for behavioral “modernity” is the frequency and nature of hunting among Palaeolithic populations. Here new archaeological data from Ortvale Klde, a late Middle–early Upper Palaeolithic rockshelter in the Georgian Republic, are considered, and zooarchaeological methods are applied to the study of faunal acquisition patterns to test whether they changed significantly from the Middle to the Upper Palaeolithic. The analyses demonstrate that Neanderthals and modern humans practiced largely identical hunting tactics and that the two populations were equally and independently capable of acquiring and exploiting critical biogeographical information pertaining to resource availability and animal behavior. Like lithic techno-typological traditions, hunting behaviors are poor proxies for major behavioral differences between Neanderthals and modern humans, a conclusion that has important implications for debates surrounding the Middle–Upper Palaeolithic transition and what features constitute “modern” behavior. The proposition is advanced that developments in the social realm of Upper Palaeolithic societies allowed the replacement of Neanderthals in the Caucasus with little temporal or spatial overlap and that this process was widespread beyond traditional topographic and biogeographical barriers to Neanderthal mobility.

Computerized Interactive Orthodontic Treatment Planning

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Certificate in Orthodontics, Dept. of Orthodontics, University of Connecticut Health Center, 1975.

Teaching Time Preference and Human Impatience: The Billionaire Game

The Billionaire Game involves students in discussing time preference, or what Fisher (1930) calls human impatience. The game can facilitate the introduction of the material on present value and discounting or discussions on such issues as investment in human capital and the intertemporal consumption-saving decision. Thus, the game can facilitate discussions in a number of economics courses.

The Old Ball Game: Organization of Nineteenth Century Professional Base Ball Clubs

The first professional base ball clubs came in two varieties: stock clubs, which paid their players fixed wages, and player cooperatives, in which players shared the proceeds after expenses. We argue that stock clubs were formed with players of known ability, while co-ops were formed with players of unknown ability. Although residual claimancy served to screen out players of inferior ability in co-ops, the process was imperfect due to the team production problem. Based on this argument, we suggest that co-ops functioned as an early minor league system where untried players could seek to prove themselves and eventually move up to wage teams. Empirical analysis of data on player performance and experience in early professional base ball provides support for the theory.

Can a Newly Proposed Mechanism for Allocating Contracts in U.S. Electricity Wholesale Markets Lead to Lower Prices? A Game Theoretic Analysis

This study of the wholesale electricity market compares the cost-minimizing performance of the auction mechanism currently in place in U.S. markets with the performance of a proposed replacement. The current mechanism chooses an allocation of contracts that minimizes a fictional cost calculated using pay-as-offer pricing. Then suppliers are paid the market clearing price. The proposed mechanism uses the market clearing price in the allocation phase as well as in the payment phase. In concentrated markets, the proposed mechanism outperforms the current mechanism even when strategic behavior by suppliers is taken into account. The advantage of the proposed mechanism increases with increased price competition.

Evaluation of the association between cryptosporidiosis outbreaks and two interactive water fountain parks: Epidemiologic analysis and implications for public health

Background. A community-wide outbreak of cryptosporidiosis occurred in Dallas County during the summer of 2008. A subset of cases occurring with onset of illness within a 2 week interval was epidemiologically linked to 2 neighborhood interactive water fountain parks. ^ Methods. A case control study was conducted to evaluate risk factors associated with developing illness with cryptosporidiosis from the fountain parks. Cases were selected from a line list from the epidemiological study. The selection for the controls was either healthy family members or a daycare center nearby. Cases and controls were not matched. ^ Results. Interviews were completed for 44 fountain park attendees who met case definition and 54 community controls. Twenty-seven percent (27.3%) of the cases and 13.0% of the controls were between the ages of 0–4 years. Thirty-nine percent (38.6%) of the cases and 24.1% of the controls were between the ages of 5–13 years. Fourteen percent (13.6%) of the cases and 33.3% of the controls were between the ages of 14–31 years. Twenty percent (20.5%) of the cases and 29.6% of the controls were between the ages of 32–63 years. 47.7% of the cases and 42.6% of the controls were males. Fountain park attendees who reported having been splashed in the face with water were 10 times more likely to become ill than controls (OR = 10.0, 95% CI = 2.8–35.1). Persons who reported having swallowed water from the interactive fountains were 34 times more likely to become ill than controls (OR = 34.3, 95%CI = 9.3–125.7). ^ Conclusion. Prompt reporting of cases, identification of outbreak sources, and immediate implementation of remediation measures were critical in curtailing further transmission from these particular sites through the remainder of the season. This investigation underscores the potential for cryptosporidiosis outbreaks to occur in interactive fountain parks, and the need for enhanced preventive measures in these settings. Education of the public regarding avoidance of behaviors such as drinking water from interactive fountains is also an important component of public health prevention efforts. ^

An interactive intervention to impact adherence to antiretroviral treatment among treatment-naive HIV-infected adults in Thailand: A pilot randomized controlled study

Background. Consistent adherence to antiretroviral treatment is necessary for a treatment success. Improving and maintaining adherence rate >95% are challenging for health care professionals. This pilot randomized controlled study aimed to evaluate the impact of the interactive intervention on adherence to GPO-VIR, to describe the feasibility of the interactive intervention in Thailand, and to illustrate the adherence self-efficacy concept among HIV treatment-naïve patients in Thailand who were starting antiretroviral treatment. ^ Methods. The study took place at three HIV clinics located in Phayao, Thailand. Twenty-three patients were randomly assigned into the experimental (n=11) and the control groups (n=12). Each participant in the experimental group and a significant person to the patient received 5 educational sessions with a nurse at the clinics and at their homes. They also received 3 follow-up evaluations during the 6-month period of the study. The participants in the control group received the standard of care provided by HIV clinical personnel plus three follow-up evaluations at the clinic. ^ Results. Seventeen patients (7 in the experimental and 10 in the control group) completed the study. The 4-day recall on the Thai ACTG Adherence Scale demonstrated adherence rate >95% for most participants from both groups. After the first measurement, no experimental group patients reporting missing ART, while one control group participant continuously skipped ART. Participants from both groups had significantly increased CD4 cell counts after the study (F(1, 15) = 29.30, p = .000), but no differences were found between two groups (F(1, 15) = .001, p = .98). Examination of the intervention showed limitations and possibilities to implement it in Thailand. Qualitative data demonstrated self-efficacy expectations, resignation and acceptance as related concepts to improve adherence outcomes. ^ Conclusions. This interactive intervention, after appropriate modifications, is feasible to apply for Thai HIV-treatment naïve patients. Because of limitations the study could not demonstrate whether the interactive intervention improved adherence to ART among HIV-treatment naïve in Thailand. A longitudinal study in a larger sample would be required to test the impact of the intervention. ^ Keyword: antiretroviral treatment, adherence, treatment-naïve, Thailand, randomized controlled study ^

It's your game, keep it real. Sexual education study

Purpose: This study translated and adapted the It's Your Game, Keep It Real study currently being implemented with middle school youth in Southeast Texas for a middle school population in rural western Honduras. The study tested the effects of a sexual health education program focused on human immunodeficiency virus, sexually transmitted infections, and pregnancy prevention. We hypothesized that the number of adolescents in the intervention group who initiate sexual activity will reduce in comparison to the control group and there will be an increase consistent condom use in sexually active adolescents in the intervention group. ^ Methods: The target population included Spanish-speaking Hispanic middle school students from a small, semi-urban city in western Honduras. One school was randomly selected to receive the intervention and one to the comparison condition. The intervention curriculum consisted of 10 seventh-grade lessons that included individual and group classroom-based activities and personal journaling. Follow-up surveys were completed three months after the last lesson with 146 students (79.3% of the defined cohort). ^ Results: In the comparison condition, 21.4% of students initiated sex by the post-test follow-up three months after the intervention compared to 7.8% in the intervention condition. ^ Conclusions: A multi-component, curriculum-based program that is theory driven and culturally relevant can increase knowledge about STIs and HIV, increase self-confidence amongst middle school students, and develop communication skills amongst friends and partners. Further research must be conducted to assess delay in sexual initiation and the generalizability of these results.^

Model of interactive visualization of diffusion processes from different strains, and source routes and spatial diffusion of capuchin monkeys over the past 6 million years

Source routes and Spatial Diffusion of capuchin monkeys over the past 6 million years, rebuilt in the SPREAD 1.0.6 from the MCC tree. The map shows the 10 different regions to which distinctive samples were associated. The different transmission routes have been calculated from the average rate over time. Only rates with Bayes factor> 3 were considered as significantly different from zero. Significant diffusion pathways are highlighted with color varying from dark brown to red, being the dark brown less significant rates and deep red the most significant rates.

Interactive effects of salinity and elevated CO2 levels on juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica

Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 lead to acidification of the ocean and alter seawater carbonate chemistry, which can negatively impact calcifying organisms, including mollusks. In estuaries, exposure to elevated CO2 levels often co-occurs with other stressors, such as reduced salinity, which enhances the acidification trend, affects ion and acid-base regulation of estuarine calcifiers and modifies their response to ocean acidification. We studied the interactive effects of salinity and partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) on biomineralization and energy homeostasis in juveniles of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, a common estuarine bivalve. Juveniles were exposed for 11 weeks to one of two environmentally relevant salinities (30 or 15 PSU) either at current atmospheric PCO2 (400 µatm, normocapnia) or PCO2 projected by moderate IPCC scenarios for the year 2100 (700-800 µatm, hypercapnia). Exposure of the juvenile oysters to elevated PCO2 and/or low salinity led to a significant increase in mortality, reduction of tissue energy stores (glycogen and lipid) and negative soft tissue growth, indicating energy deficiency. Interestingly, tissue ATP levels were not affected by exposure to changing salinity and PCO2, suggesting that juvenile oysters maintain their cellular energy status at the expense of lipid and glycogen stores. At the same time, no compensatory upregulation of carbonic anhydrase activity was found under the conditions of low salinity and high PCO2. Metabolic profiling using magnetic resonance spectroscopy revealed altered metabolite status following low salinity exposure; specifically, acetate levels were lower in hypercapnic than in normocapnic individuals at low salinity. Combined exposure to hypercapnia and low salinity negatively affected mechanical properties of shells of the juveniles, resulting in reduced hardness and fracture resistance. Thus, our data suggest that the combined effects of elevated PCO2 and fluctuating salinity may jeopardize the survival of eastern oysters because of weakening of their shells and increased energy consumption.

Interactive effects of light, nitrogen source, and carbon dioxide on energy metabolism in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana

Due to the ongoing effects of climate change, phytoplankton are likely to experience enhanced irradiance, more reduced nitrogen, and increased water acidity in the future ocean. Here, we used Thalassiosira pseudonana as a model organism to examine how phytoplankton adjust energy production and expenditure to cope with these multiple, interrelated environmental factors. Following acclimation to a matrix of irradiance, nitrogen source, and CO2 levels, the diatom's energy production and expenditures were quantified and incorporated into an energetic budget to predict how photosynthesis was affected by growth conditions. Increased light intensity and a shift from inline image to inline image led to increased energy generation, through higher rates of light capture at high light and greater investment in photosynthetic proteins when grown on inline image. Secondary energetic expenditures were adjusted modestly at different culture conditions, except that inline image utilization was systematically reduced by increasing pCO2. The subsequent changes in element stoichiometry, biochemical composition, and release of dissolved organic compounds may have important implications for marine biogeochemical cycles. The predicted effects of changing environmental conditions on photosynthesis, made using an energetic budget, were in good agreement with observations at low light, when energy is clearly limiting, but the energetic budget over-predicts the response to inline image at high light, which might be due to relief of energetic limitations and/or increased percentage of inactive photosystem II at high light. Taken together, our study demonstrates that energetic budgets offered significant insight into the response of phytoplankton energy metabolism to the changing environment and did a reasonable job predicting them.

Interactive effects of ocean acidification, elevated temperature, and reduced salinity on early-life stages of the Pacific oyster

Ocean acidification (OA) effects on larvae are partially attributed for the rapidly declining oyster production in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. This OA effect is a serious concern in SE Asia, which produces >80% of the world's oysters. Because climate-related stressors rarely act alone, we need to consider OA effects on oysters in combination with warming and reduced salinity. Here, the interactive effects of these three climate-related stressors on the larval growth of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, were examined. Larvae were cultured in combinations of temperature (24 and 30 °C), pH (8.1 and 7.4), and salinity (15 psu and 25 psu) for 58 days to the early juvenile stage. Decreased pH (pH 7.4), elevated temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu) significantly delayed pre- and post-settlement growth. Elevated temperature lowered the larval lipid index, a proxy for physiological quality, and negated the negative effects of decreased pH on attachment and metamorphosis only in a salinity of 25 psu. The negative effects of multiple stressors on larval metamorphosis were not due to reduced size or depleted lipid reserves at the time of metamorphosis. Our results supported the hypothesis that the C. gigas larvae are vulnerable to the interactions of OA with reduced salinity and warming in Yellow Sea coastal waters now and in the future.

Interactive effects of ocean acidification and rising sea temperatures alter predation rate and predator selectivity in reef fish communities

Ocean warming and acidification are serious threats to marine life. While each stressor alone has been studied in detail, their combined effects on the outcome of ecological interactions are poorly understood. We measured predation rates and predator selectivity of two closely related species of damselfish exposed to a predatory dottyback. We found temperature and CO2 interacted synergistically on overall predation rate, but antagonistically on predator selectivity. Notably, elevated CO2 or temperature alone reversed predator selectivity, but the interaction between the two stressors cancelled selectivity. Routine metabolic rates of the two prey showed strong species differences in tolerance to CO2 and not temperature, but these differences did not correlate with recorded mortality. This highlights the difficulty of linking species-level physiological tolerance to resulting ecological outcomes. This study is the first to document both synergistic and antagonistic effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a crucial ecological process like predator-prey dynamics.