Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Conceptual Ecological Modelling of Sublittoral Rock Habitats to Inform Indicator Selection

The purpose of this study is to produce a series of Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs) that represent sublittoral rock habitats in the UK. CEMs are diagrammatic representations of the influences and processes that occur within an ecosystem. They can be used to identify critical aspects of an ecosystem that may be studied further, or serve as the basis for the selection of indicators for environmental monitoring purposes. The models produced by this project are control diagrams, representing the unimpacted state of the environment free from anthropogenic pressures. It is intended that the models produced by this project will be used to guide indicator selection for the monitoring of this habitat in UK waters. CEMs may eventually be produced for a range of habitat types defined under the UK Marine Biodiversity Monitoring R&D Programme (UKMBMP), which, along with stressor models, are designed to show the interactions within impacted habitats, would form the basis of a robust method for indicator selection. This project builds on the work to develop CEMs for shallow sublittoral coarse sediment habitats (Alexander et al 2014). The project scope included those habitats defined as ‘sublittoral rock’. This definition includes those habitats that fall into the EUNIS Level 3 classifications A3.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy infralittoral rock, A3.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy infralittoral rock, A3.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy infralittoral rock, A4.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy circalittoral rock, A4.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy circalittoral rock, and A4.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy circalittoral rock as well as the constituent Level 4 and 5 biotopes that are relevant to UK waters. A species list of characterising fauna to be included within the scope of the models was identified using an iterative process to refine the full list of species found within the relevant Level 5 biotopes. A literature review was conducted using a pragmatic and iterative approach to gather evidence regarding species traits and information that would be used to inform the models and characterise the interactions that occur within the sublittoral rock habitat. All information gathered during the literature review was entered into a data logging pro-forma spreadsheet that accompanies this report. Wherever possible, attempts were made to collect information from UK-specific peer-reviewed studies, although other sources were used where necessary. All data gathered was subject to a detailed confidence assessment. Expert judgement by the project team was utilised to provide information for aspects of the models for which references could not be sourced within the project timeframe. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to assess ecologically similar groups (based on ecological and life history traits) of fauna from the identified species to form the basis of the models. A model hierarchy was developed based on these ecological groups. One general control model was produced that indicated the high-level drivers, inputs, biological assemblages, ecosystem processes and outputs that occur in sublittoral rock habitats. In addition to this, seven detailed sub-models were produced, which each focussed on a particular ecological group of fauna within the habitat: ‘macroalgae’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached active filter feeders’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached passive filter feeders’, ‘bivalves, brachiopods and other encrusting filter feeders’, ‘tube building fauna’, ‘scavengers and predatory fauna’, and ‘non-predatory mobile fauna’. Each sub-model is accompanied by an associated confidence model that presents confidence in the links between each model component. The models are split into seven levels and take spatial and temporal scale into account through their design, as well as magnitude and direction of influence. The seven levels include regional to global drivers, water column processes, local inputs/processes at the seabed, habitat and biological assemblage, output processes, local ecosystem functions, and regional to global ecosystem functions. The models indicate that whilst the high level drivers that affect each ecological group are largely similar, the output processes performed by the biota and the resulting ecosystem functions vary both in number and importance between groups. Confidence within the models as a whole is generally high, reflecting the level of information gathered during the literature review. Physical drivers which influence the ecosystem were found to be of high importance for the sublittoral rock habitat, with factors such as wave exposure, water depth and water currents noted to be crucial in defining the biological assemblages. Other important factors such as recruitment/propagule supply, and those which affect primary production, such as suspended sediments, light attenuation and water chemistry and temperature, were also noted to be key and act to influence the food sources consumed by the biological assemblages of the habitat, and the biological assemblages themselves. Output processes performed by the biological assemblages are variable between ecological groups depending on the specific flora and fauna present and the role they perform within the ecosystem. Of particular importance are the outputs performed by the macroalgae group, which are diverse in nature and exert influence over other ecological groups in the habitat. Important output processes from the habitat as a whole include primary and secondary production, bioengineering, biodeposition (in mixed sediment habitats) and the supply of propagules; these in turn influence ecosystem functions at the local scale such as nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, supply of food resources, sediment stability (in mixed sediment habitats), habitat provision and population and algae control. The export of biodiversity and organic matter, biodiversity enhancement and biotope stability are the resulting ecosystem functions that occur at the regional to global scale. Features within the models that are most useful for monitoring habitat status and change due to natural variation have been identified, as have those that may be useful for monitoring to identify anthropogenic causes of change within the ecosystem. Biological, physical and chemical features of the ecosystem have been identified as potential indicators to monitor natural variation, whereas biological factors and those physical /chemical factors most likely to affect primary production have predominantly been identified as most likely to indicate change due to anthropogenic pressures.

Process Modelling for Control of Product Wall Thickness in Thermoforming

The present paper describes the results of an investigation into the modelling of plug assisted thermoforming. The objective of this work was to improve the finite element modelling of thermoforming through an enhanced understanding of the physical elements underlying the process. Experiments were carried out to measure the effects on output of changes in major parameters and simultaneously simple finite element models were constructed. The experimental results show that the process creates conflicting and interrelated contact friction and heat transfer effects that largely dictate the final wall thickness distribution. From the simulation work it was demonstrated that a high coefficient of friction and no heat transfer can give a good approximation of the actual wall thickness distribution. However, when conduction was added to the model the results for lower friction values were greatly improved. It was concluded that further work is necessary to provide realistic measurements and models for contact effects in thermoforming.

Modelling the correlation between processing parameters and properties of maraging steels using artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for the analysis and simulation of the correlation between the properties of maraging steels and composition, processing and working conditions. The input parameters of the model consist of alloy composition, processing parameters (including cold deformation degree, ageing temperature, and ageing time), and working temperature. The outputs of the ANN model include property parameters namely: ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, elongation, reduction in area, hardness, notched tensile strength, Charpy impact energy, fracture toughness, and martensitic transformation start temperature. Good performance of the ANN model is achieved. The model can be used to calculate properties of maraging steels as functions of alloy composition, processing parameters, and working condition. The combined influence of Co and Mo on the properties of maraging steels is simulated using the model. The results are in agreement with experimental data. Explanation of the calculated results from the metallurgical point of view is attempted. The model can be used as a guide for further alloy development.

Modelling the MAPK signalling pathway using a two-stage identification algorithm

Signal transduction pathways describe the dynamics of cellular response to input signalling molecules at receptors on the cell membrane. The Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase (MAPK) cascade is one of such pathways that are involved in many important cellular processes including cell growth and proliferation. This paper describes a black-box model of this pathway created using an advanced two-stage identification algorithm. Identification allows us to capture the unique features and dynamics of the pathway and also opens up the possibility of regulatory control design. In the approach described, an optimal model is obtained by performing model subset selection in two stages, where the terms are first determined by a forward selection method and then modified using a backward selection model refinement. The simulation results demonstrate that the model selected using the two-stage algorithm performs better than with the forward selection method alone.

Accurate substrate modelling of RF CMOS

The losses within the substrate of an RF IC can have significant effect on performance in a mixed signal application. in order to model substrate coupling accurately, it is represented by an RC network to account for both resistive and dielectric losses at high frequency (> 1 GHz). A small-signal equivalent circuit model of an RF IC inclusive of substrate parasitic effect is analysed in terms of its y-parameters and an extraction procedure for substrate parameters has been developed. By coupling the extracted substrate parameters along with extrinsic resistances associated with gate, source and drain, a standard BSIM3 model has been extended for RF applications. The new model exhibits a significant improvement in prediction of output reflection coefficient S-22 in the frequency range from 1 to 10 GHz in device mode of operation and for a low noise amplifier (LNA) at 2.4 GHz. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multiple Input Governor Control for a Diesel Generating Set

The paper presents a multiple input single output fuzzy logic governor algorithm that can be used to improve the transient response of a diesel generating set, when supplying an islanded load. The proposed governor uses the traditional speed input in addition to voltage and power factor to modify the fuelling requirements during various load disturbances. The use of fuzzy logic control allows the use of PID type structures that can provide variable gain strategies to account for non-linearities in the system. Fuzzy logic also provides a means of processing other input information by linguistic reasoning and a logical control output to aid the governor action during transient disturbance. The test results were obtained using a 50 kVA naturally aspirated diesel generator testing facility. Both real and reactive load tests were conducted. The complex load test results demonstrate that, by using additional inputs to the governor algorithm, enhanced generator transient speed recovery response can be obtained.

Bridging top down and bottom up: Modelling community preferences for a dispersed rural settlement pattern

This paper explores the scope to bridge top-down and bottom-up perspectives on spatial planning by drawing on EU-funded action research in relation to rural settlement planning in Northern Ireland. The empirical work is located within a review of planning theory that exposes a long running tension between the technocratic stances of government planners and the aspirations of engaged citizens. It demonstrates the operation of a large group planning methodology that delivers community preference with environmental responsibility as a participatory input into planning policy formulation. Transferable insights into the dynamics of spatial planning are identified.

An efficient neural network approach for nanoscale FinFET modelling and circuit simulation

The present paper demonstrates the suitability of artificial neural network (ANN) for modelling of a FinFET in nano-circuit simulation. The FinFET used in this work is designed using careful engineering of source-drain extension, which simultaneously improves maximum frequency of oscillation f(max) because of lower gate to drain capacitance, and intrinsic gain A(V0) = g(m)/g(ds), due to lower output conductance g(ds). The framework for the ANN-based FinFET model is a common source equivalent circuit, where the dependence of intrinsic capacitances, resistances and dc drain current I-d on drain-source V-ds and gate-source V-gs is derived by a simple two-layered neural network architecture. All extrinsic components of the FinFET model are treated as bias independent. The model was implemented in a circuit simulator and verified by its ability to generate accurate response to excitations not used during training. The model was used to design a low-noise amplifier. At low power (J(ds) similar to 10 mu A/mu m) improvement was observed in both third-order-intercept IIP3 (similar to 10 dBm) and intrinsic gain A(V0) (similar to 20 dB), compared to a comparable bulk MOSFET with similar effective channel length. This is attributed to higher ratio of first-order to third-order derivative of I-d with respect to gate voltage and lower g(ds), in FinFET compared to bulk MOSFET. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A 330-360 GHz spectral survey of G34.3+0.15 .2. Chemical modelling

We describe a detailed depth-and time-dependent model of the molecular cloud associated with the ultracompact H II region G 34.3+0.15. Previous work on observations of NH3 and CS indicates that the molecular cloud has three distinct physical components:- an ultracompact hot core, a compact hot core and an extended halo. We have used the physical parameters derived from these observations as input to our detailed chemical kinetic modelling. The results of the model calculations are discussed with reference to the different chemistries occuring in each component and are compared with abundances derived from our recent spectral line survey of G 34.3+0.15 (Paper I).

AND Logic Gates Based on Small Molecules with Chemical Inputs and Luminescence Output

AND logic gate behaviour can be recognized in chemical-responsive luminescence phenomena concerning small molecules. Though initial developments concerned separate and distinguishable chemical species as inputs, consideration of other types of input sets allows substantial expansion of the sub-field. Dissection of these molecular devices into modules, where possible, enables analysis of their logic behaviour according to supramolecular photochemical mechanisms.

Modelling and Control of Shape Memory Alloy Actuators by using Preisach Model, Genetic Algorithm and Fuzzy Logic

Shapememoryalloy (SMA) actuators, which have the ability to return to a predetermined shape when heated, have many potential applications in aeronautics, surgical tools, robotics and so on. Nonlinearity hysteresis effects existing in SMA actuators present a problem in the motion control of these smart actuators. This paper investigates the control problem of SMA actuators in both simulation and experiment. In the simulation, the numerical Preisachmodel with geometrical interpretation is used for hysteresis modeling of SMA actuators. This model is then incorporated in a closed loop PID control strategy. The optimal values of PID parameters are determined by using geneticalgorithm to minimize the mean squared error between desired output displacement and simulated output. However, the control performance is not good compared with the simulation results when these parameters are applied to the real SMA control since the system is disturbed by unknown factors and changes in the surrounding environment of the system. A further automated readjustment of the PID parameters using fuzzylogic is proposed for compensating the limitation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller, real time control experiment results are presented.

A Kernel Interleaved Scheduling Method for Streaming Applications on Soft-core Vector Processors

Massively parallel networks of highly efficient, high performance Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) processors have been shown to enable FPGA-based implementation of real-time signal processing applications with performance and
cost comparable to dedicated hardware architectures. This is achieved by exploiting simple datapath units with deep processing pipelines. However, these architectures are highly susceptible to pipeline bubbles resulting from data and control hazards; the only way to mitigate against these is manual interleaving of
application tasks on each datapath, since no suitable automated interleaving approach exists. In this paper we describe a new automated integrated mapping/scheduling approach to map algorithm tasks to processors and a new low-complexity list scheduling technique to generate the interleaved schedules. When applied to a spatial Fixed-Complexity Sphere Decoding (FSD) detector
for next-generation Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems, the resulting schedules achieve real-time performance for IEEE 802.11n systems on a network of 16-way SIMD processors on FPGA, enable better performance/complexity balance than current approaches and produce results comparable to handcrafted implementations.

Modelling and Instrumentation of Stretch Blow Moulding

The injection stretch blow moulding process is used to manufacture PET containers used in the soft drinks and carbonated soft drinks industry. The process consists of a test tube like specimen known as a preform which is heated, stretch and blown into a mould to form the container. This research is focused on developing a validated simulation of the process thus enabling manufacturers to design their products in a virtual environment without the need to waste time, material and energy. The simulation has been developed using the commercial FEA package Abaqus and has been validated using state of the art data acquisition system consisting of measurements for preform temperature (inner and outer wall) using a device known as THERMOscan (Figure 1), stretch rod force and velocity, internal pressure and air temperature inside the preform using an instrumented stretch rod and the?exact?timing of when the preform touches the mould wall using contact sensors.? In addition, validation studies have also been performed by blowing a perform without a mould and using high sped imaging technology in cooperation with an advanced digital image correlation system (VIC 3D) to provided new quantitative information on the behaviour of PET during blowing.? The approach has resulted in a realistic simulation in terms of accurate input parameters, preform shape evolution and prediction of final properties.