Assessment of cytomegalovirus-specific cell-mediated immunity for the prediction of cytomegalovirus disease in high-risk solid-organ transplant recipients: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease remains an important problem in solid-organ transplant recipients, with the greatest risk among donor CMV-seropositive, recipient-seronegative (D(+)/R(-)) patients. CMV-specific cell-mediated immunity may be able to predict which patients will develop CMV disease. METHODS: We prospectively included D(+)/R(-) patients who received antiviral prophylaxis. We used the Quantiferon-CMV assay to measure interferon-γ levels following in vitro stimulation with CMV antigens. The test was performed at the end of prophylaxis and 1 and 2 months later. The primary outcome was the incidence of CMV disease at 12 months after transplant. We calculated positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease. RESULTS: Overall, 28 of 127 (22%) patients developed CMV disease. Of 124 evaluable patients, 31 (25%) had a positive result, 81 (65.3%) had a negative result, and 12 (9.7%) had an indeterminate result (negative mitogen and CMV antigen) with the Quantiferon-CMV assay. At 12 months, patients with a positive result had a subsequent lower incidence of CMV disease than patients with a negative and an indeterminate result (6.4% vs 22.2% vs 58.3%, respectively; P < .001). Positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease were 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], .74-.98) and 0.27 (95% CI, .18-.37), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This assay may be useful to predict if patients are at low, intermediate, or high risk for the development of subsequent CMV disease after prophylaxis. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00817908.

ACID-SENSING ION CHANNELS: functional and molecular characterization in putative nociceptors, and modulation by nerve injury and serine protease

Résumé Les canaux ioniques ASICs (acid-sensing ion channels) appartiennent à la famille des canaux ENaC/Degenerin. Pour l'instant, quatre gènes (1 à 4) ont été clonés dont certains présentent des variants d'épissage. Leur activation par une acidification rapide du milieu extracellulaire génère un courant entrant transitoire essentiellement sodique accompagné pour certains types d'ASICs d'une phase soutenue. Les ASICs sont exprimés dans le système nerveux, central (SNC) et périphérique (SNP). On leur attribue un rôle dans l'apprentissage, la mémoire et l'ischémie cérébrale au niveau central ainsi que dans la nociception (douleur aiguë et inflammatoire) et la méchanotransduction au niveau périphérique. Toutefois, les données sont parfois contradictoires. Certaines études suggèrent qu'ils sont des senseurs primordiaux impliqués dans la détection de l'acidification et la douleur. D'autres études suggèrent plutôt qu'ils ont un rôle modulateur inhibiteur dans la douleur. De plus, le fait que leur activation génère majoritairement un courant transitoire alors que les fibres nerveuses impliquées dans la douleur répondent à un stimulus nocif avec une adaptation lente suggère que leurs propriétés doivent être modulés par des molécules endogènes. Dans une première partie de ma thèse, nous avons abordé la question de l'expression fonctionnelle des ASICs dans les neurones sensoriels primaires afférents du rat adulte pour clarifier le rôle des ASICs dans les neurones sensoriels. Nous avons caractérisé leurs propriétés biophysiques et pharmacologiques par la technique du patch-clamp en configuration « whole-cell ». Nous avons pu démontrer que près de 60% des neurones sensoriels de petit diamètre expriment des courants ASICs. Nous avons mis en évidence trois types de courant ASIC dans ces neurones. Les types 1 et 3 ont des propriétés compatibles avec un rôle de senseur du pH alors que le type 2 est majoritairement activé par des pH inférieurs à pH6. Le type 1 est médié par des homomers de la sous-unité ASIC1 a qui sont perméables aux Ca2+. Nous avons étudié leur co-expression avec des marqueurs des nocicepteurs ainsi que la possibilité d'induire une activité neuronale suite à une acidification qui soit dépendante des ASICs. Le but était d'associer un type de courant ASIC avec une fonction potentielle dans les neurones sensoriels. Une majorité des neurones exprimant les courants ASIC co-expriment des marqueurs des nocicepteurs. Toutefois, une plus grande proportion des neurones exprimant le type 1 n'est pas associée à la nociception par rapport aux types 2 et 3. Nous avons montré qu'il est possible d'induire des potentiels d'actions suite à une acidification. La probabilité d'induction est proportionnelle à la densité des courants ASIC et à l'acidité de la stimulation. Puis, nous avons utilisé cette classification comme un outil pour appréhender les potentielles modulations fonctionnelles des ASICs dans un model de neuropathie (spared nerve injury). Cette approche fut complétée par des expériences de «quantitative RT-PCR ». En situation de neuropathie, les courants ASIC sont dramatiquement changés au niveau de leur expression fonctionnelle et transcriptionnelle dans les neurones lésés ainsi que non-lésés. Dans une deuxième partie de ma thèse, suite au test de différentes substances sécrétées lors de l'inflammation et l'ischémie sur les propriétés des ASICs, nous avons caractérisé en détail la modulation des propriétés des courants ASICs notamment ASIC1 par les sérines protéases dans des systèmes d'expression recombinants ainsi que dans des neurones d'hippocampe. Nous avons montré que l'exposition aux sérine-protéases décale la dépendance au pH de l'activation ainsi que la « steady-state inactivation »des ASICs -1a et -1b vers des valeurs plus acidiques. Ainsi, l'exposition aux serine protéases conduit à une diminution du courant quand l'acidification a lieu à partir d'un pH7.4 et conduit à une augmentation du courant quand l'acidification alleu à partir d'un pH7. Nous avons aussi montré que cette régulation a lieu des les neurones d'hippocampe. Nos résultats dans les neurones sensoriels suggèrent que certains courants ASICs sont impliqués dans la transduction de l'acidification et de la douleur ainsi que dans une des phases du processus conduisant à la neuropathie. Une partie des courants de type 1 perméables au Ca 2+ peuvent être impliqués dans la neurosécrétion. La modulation par les sérines protéases pourrait expliquer qu'en situation d'acidose les canaux ASICs soient toujours activables. Résumé grand publique Les neurones sont les principales cellules du système nerveux. Le système nerveux est formé par le système nerveux central - principalement le cerveau, le cervelet et la moelle épinière - et le système nerveux périphérique -principalement les nerfs et les neurones sensoriels. Grâce à leur nombreux "bras" (les neurites), les neurones sont connectés entre eux, formant un véritable réseau de communication qui s'étend dans tout le corps. L'information se propage sous forme d'un phénomène électrique, l'influx nerveux (ou potentiels d'actions). A la base des phénomènes électriques dans les neurones il y a ce que l'on appelle les canaux ioniques. Un canal ionique est une sorte de tunnel qui traverse l'enveloppe qui entoure les cellules (la membrane) et par lequel passent les ions. La plupart de ces canaux sont normalement fermés et nécessitent d'être activés pour s'ouvrire et générer un influx nerveux. Les canaux ASICs sont activés par l'acidification et sont exprimés dans tout le système nerveux. Cette acidification a lieu notamment lors d'une attaque cérébrale (ischémie cérébrale) ou lors de l'inflammation. Les expériences sur les animaux ont montré que les canaux ASICs avaient entre autre un rôle dans la mort des neurones lors d'une attaque cérébrale et dans la douleur inflammatoire. Lors de ma thèse je me suis intéressé au rôle des ASICs dans la douleur et à l'influence des substances produites pendant l'inflammation sur leur activation par l'acidification. J'ai ainsi pu montrer chez le rat que la majorité des neurones sensoriels impliqués dans la douleur ont des canaux ASICs et que l'activation de ces canaux induit des potentiels d'action. Nous avons opéré des rats pour qu'ils présentent les symptômes d'une maladie chronique appelée neuropathie. La neuropathie se caractérise par une plus grande sensibilité à la douleur. Les rats neuropathiques présentent des changements de leurs canaux ASICs suggérant que ces canaux ont une peut-être un rôle dans la genèse ou les symptômes de cette maladie. J'ai aussi montré in vitro qu'un type d'enryme produit lors de l'inflammation et l'ischémie change les propriétés des ASICs. Ces résultats confirment un rôle des ASICs dans la douleur suggérant notamment un rôle jusque là encore non étudié dans la douleur neuropathique. De plus, ces résultats mettent en évidence une régulation des ASICs qui pourrait être importante si elle se confirmait in vivo de part les différents rôles des ASICs. Abstract Acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) are members of the ENaC/Degenerin superfamily of ion channels. Their activation by a rapid extracellular acidification generates a transient and for some ASIC types also a sustained current mainly mediated by Na+. ASICs are expressed in the central (CNS) and in the peripheral (PNS) nervous system. In the CNS, ASICs have a putative role in learning, memory and in neuronal death after cerebral ischemia. In the PNS, ASICs have a putative role in nociception (acute and inflammatory pain) and in mechanotransduction. However, studies on ASIC function are somewhat controversial. Some studies suggest a crucial role of ASICs in transduction of acidification and in pain whereas other studies suggest rather a modulatory inhibitory role of ASICs in pain. Moreover, the basic property of ASICs, that they are activated only transiently is irreconcilable with the well-known property of nociception that the firing of nociceptive fibers demonstrated very little adaptation. Endogenous molecules may exist that can modulate ASIC properties. In a first part of my thesis, we addressed the question of the functional expression of ASICs in adult rat dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons. Our goal was to elucidate ASIC roles in DRG neurons. We characterized biophysical and pharmacological properties of ASIC currents using the patch-clamp technique in the whole-cell configuration. We observed that around 60% of small-diameter sensory neurons express ASICs currents. We described in these neurons three ASIC current types. Types 1 and 3 have properties compatible with a role of pH-sensor whereas type 2 is mainly activated by pH lower than pH6. Type 1 is mediated by ASIC1a homomultimers which are permeable to Ca 2+. We studied ASIC co-expression with nociceptor markers. The goal was to associate an ASIC current type with a potential function in sensory neurons. Most neurons expressing ASIC currents co-expressed nociceptor markers. However, a higher proportion of the neurons expressing type 1 was not associated with nociception compared to type 2 and -3. We completed this approach with current-clamp measurements of acidification-induced action potentials (APs). We showed that activation of ASICs in small-diameter neurons can induce APs. The probability of AP induction is positively correlated with the ASIC current density and the acidity of stimulation. Then, we used this classification as a tool to characterize the potential functional modulation of ASICs in the spared nerve injury model of neuropathy. This approach was completed by quantitative RT-PCR experiments. ASICs current expression was dramatically changed at the functional and transcriptional level in injured and non-injured small-diameter DRG neurons. In a second part of my thesis, following an initial screening of the effect of various substances secreted during inflammation and ischemia on ASIC current properties, we characterized in detail the modulation of ASICs, in particular of ASIC1 by serine proteases in a recombinant expression system as well as in hippocampal neurons. We showed that protease exposure shifts the pH dependence of ASIC1 activation and steady-state inactivation to more acidic pH. As a consequence, protease exposure leads to a decrease in the current response if ASIC1 is activated by a pH drop from pH 7.4. If, however, acidification occurs from a basal pH of 7, protease-exposed ASIC1a shows higher activity than untreated ASIC1a. We provided evidence that this bi-directional regulation of ASIC1a function also occurs in hippocampal neurons. Our results in DRG neurons suggest that some ASIC currents are involved in the transduction of peripheral acidification and pain. Furthermore, ASICs may participate to the processes leading to neuropathy. Some Ca 2+-permeable type 1 currents may be involved in neurosecretion. ASIC modulation by serine proteases may be physiologically relevant, allowing ASIC activation under sustained slightly acidic conditions.

The Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage Properties of Concrete, HR-136, 1970

This report is concerned with the prediction of the long-time creep and shrinkage behavior of concrete. It is divided into three main areas. l. The development of general prediction methods that can be used by a design engineer when specific experimental data are not available. 2. The development of prediction methods based on experimental data. These methods take advantage of equations developed in item l, and can be used to accurately predict creep and shrinkage after only 28 days of data collection. 3. Experimental verification of items l and 2, and the development of specific prediction equations for four sand-lightweight aggregate concretes tested in the experimental program. The general prediction equations and methods are developed in Chapter II. Standard Equations to estimate the creep of normal weight concrete (Eq. 9), sand-lightweight concrete (Eq. 12), and lightweight concrete (Eq. 15) are recommended. These equations are developed for standard conditions (see Sec. 2. 1) and correction factors required to convert creep coefficients obtained from equations 9, 12, and 15 to valid predictions for other conditions are given in Equations 17 through 23. The correction factors are shown graphically in Figs. 6 through 13. Similar equations and methods are developed for the prediction of the shrinkage of moist cured normal weight concrete (Eq. 30}, moist cured sand-lightweight concrete (Eq. 33}, and moist cured lightweight concrete (Eq. 36). For steam cured concrete the equations are Eq. 42 for normal weight concrete, and Eq. 45 for lightweight concrete. Correction factors are given in Equations 47 through 52 and Figs., 18 through 24. Chapter III summarizes and illustrates, by examples, the prediction methods developed in Chapter II. Chapters IV and V describe an experimental program in which specific prediction equations are developed for concretes made with Haydite manufactured by Hydraulic Press Brick Co. (Eqs. 53 and 54}, Haydite manufactured by Buildex Inc. (Eqs. 55 and 56), Haydite manufactured by The Cater-Waters Corp. (Eqs. 57 and 58}, and Idealite manufactured by Idealite Co. (Eqs. 59 and 60). General prediction equations are also developed from the data obtained in the experimental program (Eqs. 61 and 62) and are compared to similar equations developed in Chapter II. Creep and Shrinkage prediction methods based on 28 day experimental data are developed in Chapter VI. The methods are verified by comparing predicted and measured values of the long-time creep and shrinkage of specimens tested at the University of Iowa (see Chapters IV and V) and elsewhere. The accuracy obtained is shown to be superior to other similar methods available to the design engineer.

Fractures du calcanéum: du traumatisme aux séquelles [Fractures of the calcaneus: the injury and its sequelae]

The calcaneus gives shape to the heel. Its special position places it in direct contact with the floor, upon which rests the weight of the body. It assures the transition between the vertical skeleton and horizontal surface of the foot, thus permitting ambulation. The calcaneus is subjected to high physical stress, yet at the same time its complex articulating surfaces permit fine adaptation to the ground. Fractures of the calcaneus result from a high energy injury, usually a fall from a height. The treatment of such fractures poses difficult problems. The functional sequelae of the injury may be severe, prolonged, and frequently results in a permanent disability. This is due not only to the type of fracture, but the orthopaedic management as well. Careful evaluation of the patient, fracture pattern, soft tissue condition, and treatment modalities is obligatory to achieve the optimal result.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Ultrasound

This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.

Investigation of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design/DARWin-ME Performance Prediction Models for Iowa Pavement Analysis and Design, 2015

The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 1-37A as a novel mechanistic-empirical procedure for the analysis and design of pavements. The MEPDG was subsequently supported by AASHTO’s DARWin-ME and most recently marketed as AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software as of February 2013. Although the core design process and computational engine have remained the same over the years, some enhancements to the pavement performance prediction models have been implemented along with other documented changes as the MEPDG transitioned to AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Preliminary studies were carried out to determine possible differences between AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, MEPDG (version 1.1), and DARWin-ME (version 1.1) performance predictions for new jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), new hot mix asphalt (HMA), and HMA over JPCP systems. Differences were indeed observed between the pavement performance predictions produced by these different software versions. Further investigation was needed to verify these differences and to evaluate whether identified local calibration factors from the latest MEPDG (version 1.1) were acceptable for use with the latest version (version 2.1.24) of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design at the time this research was conducted. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to examine AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design performance predictions using previously identified MEPDG calibration factors (through InTrans Project 11-401) and, if needed, refine the local calibration coefficients of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems using linear and nonlinear optimization procedures. A total of 130 representative sections across Iowa consisting of JPCP, new HMA, and HMA over JPCP sections were used. The local calibration results of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design are presented and compared with national and locally calibrated MEPDG models.

The use of quantile trees in the prediction of the diameter distribution of a stand

Abstract

Investigation of Rapid Thermal Analysis Procedures for Prediction of the Service Life of PCCP Carbonate Coarse Aggregate: Phase I, Progress Report, HR-337, 1992

The major objective of this research project is to utilize thermal analysis techniques in conjunction with x-ray analysis methods to identify and explain chemical reactions that promote aggregate related deterioration in Portland cement concrete. The first year of this project has been spent obtaining and analyzing limestone and dolomite samples that exhibit a wide range of field service performance. Most of the samples chosen for the study also had laboratory durability test information (ASTM C 666, method B) that was readily available. Preliminary test results indicate that a strong relationship exists between the average crystallite size of the limestone (calcite) specimens and their apparent decomposition temperatures as measured by thermogravimetric analysis. Also, premature weight loss in the thermogravimetric analysis tests appeared to be related to the apparent decomposition temperature of the various calcite test specimens.

Prediction of direct and indirect genetic gains and genotypic correlations in rubber tree progenies

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic parameters, genotypic and phenotypic correlations, and direct and indirect genetic gains among and within rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) progenies. The experiment was set up at the Municipality of Jaú, SP, Brazil. A randomized complete block design was used, with 22 treatments (progenies), 6 replicates, and 10 plants per plot at a spacing of 3x3 m. Three‑year‑old progenies were assessed for girth, rubber yield, and bark thickness by direct and indirect gains and genotypic correlations. The number of latex vessel rings showed the best correlations, correlating positively and significantly with girth and bark thickness. Selection gains among progenies were greater than within progeny for all the variables analyzed. Total gains obtained were high, especially for girth increase and rubber yield, which were 93.38 and 105.95%, respectively. Young progeny selection can maximize the expected genetic gains, reducing the rubber tree selection cycle.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Prediction of hemodynamic severity of coarctation by magnetic resonance imaging.

A published formula containing minimal aortic cross-sectional area and the flow deceleration pattern in the descending aorta obtained by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts significant coarctation of the aorta (CoA). However, the existing formula is complicated to use in clinical practice and has not been externally validated. Consequently, its clinical utility has been limited. The aim of this study was to derive a simple and clinically practical algorithm to predict severe CoA from data obtained by cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Seventy-nine consecutive patients who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance and cardiac catheterization for the evaluation of native or recurrent CoA at Children's Hospital Boston (n = 30) and the University of California, San Francisco (n = 49), were retrospectively reviewed. The published formula derived from data obtained at Children's Hospital Boston was first validated from data obtained at the University of California, San Francisco. Next, pooled data from the 2 institutions were analyzed, and a refined model was created using logistic regression methods. Finally, recursive partitioning was used to develop a clinically practical prediction tree to predict transcatheter systolic pressure gradient ≥ 20 mm Hg. Severe CoA was present in 48 patients (61%). Indexed minimal aortic cross-sectional area and heart rate-corrected flow deceleration time in the descending aorta were independent predictors of CoA gradient ≥ 20 mm Hg (p <0.01 for both). A prediction tree combining these variables reached a sensitivity and specificity of 90% and 76%, respectively. In conclusion, the presented prediction tree on the basis of cutoff values is easy to use and may help guide the management of patients investigated for CoA.