Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

Proteomic and Metabolomic Analyses of Mitochondrial Complex I-deficient Mouse Model Generated by Spontaneous B2 Short Interspersed Nuclear Element (SINE) Insertion into NADH Dehydrogenase (Ubiquinone) Fe-S Protein 4 (Ndufs4) Gene.

Eukaryotic cells generate energy in the form of ATP, through a network of mitochondrial complexes and electron carriers known as the oxidative phosphorylation system. In mammals, mitochondrial complex I (CI) is the largest component of this system, comprising 45 different subunits encoded by mitochondrial and nuclear DNA. Humans diagnosed with mutations in the gene NDUFS4, encoding a nuclear DNA-encoded subunit of CI (NADH dehydrogenase ubiquinone Fe-S protein 4), typically suffer from Leigh syndrome, a neurodegenerative disease with onset in infancy or early childhood. Mitochondria from NDUFS4 patients usually lack detectable NDUFS4 protein and show a CI stability/assembly defect. Here, we describe a recessive mouse phenotype caused by the insertion of a transposable element into Ndufs4, identified by a novel combined linkage and expression analysis. Designated Ndufs4(fky), the mutation leads to aberrant transcript splicing and absence of NDUFS4 protein in all tissues tested of homozygous mice. Physical and behavioral symptoms displayed by Ndufs4(fky/fky) mice include temporary fur loss, growth retardation, unsteady gait, and abnormal body posture when suspended by the tail. Analysis of CI in Ndufs4(fky/fky) mice using blue native PAGE revealed the presence of a faster migrating crippled complex. This crippled CI was shown to lack subunits of the "N assembly module", which contains the NADH binding site, but contained two assembly factors not present in intact CI. Metabolomic analysis of the blood by tandem mass spectrometry showed increased hydroxyacylcarnitine species, implying that the CI defect leads to an imbalanced NADH/NAD(+) ratio that inhibits mitochondrial fatty acid β-oxidation.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children.

BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction)  = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio  = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio  = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.

Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement

Executive Summary Many commentators have criticised the strategy currently used to finance the Scottish Parliament – both the block grant system, and the small degree of fiscal autonomy devised in the Calman report and the UK government’s 2009 White Paper. Nevertheless, fiscal autonomy has now been conceded in principle. This paper sets out to identify formally what level of autonomy would be best for the Scottish economy and the institutional changes needed to support that arrangement. Our conclusions are in line with the Steel Commission: that significantly more fiscal powers need to be transferred to Scotland. But what we can then do, which the Steel Commission could not, is to give a detailed blueprint for how this proposal might be implemented in practice. We face two problems. The existing block grant system can and has been criticised from such a wide variety of points of view that it effectively has no credibility left. On the other hand, the Calman proposals (and the UK government proposals that followed) are unworkable because, to function, they require information that the policy makers cannot possibly have; and because, without borrowing for current activities, they contain no mechanism to reconcile contractual spending (most of the budget) with variable revenue flows – which is to invite an eventual breakdown. But in its attempt to fix these problems, the UK White Paper introduces three further difficulties: new grounds for quarrels between the UK and Scottish governments, a long term deflation bias, and a loss of devolution.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

The distribution of intestinal helminth infections in a rural village in Guatemala

Fecal egg count scores were used to investigate the distribution and abundance of intestinal helminths in the population of a rural village. Prevalences of the major helminths were 41% with Ascaris lumbricoides 60% with Trichuris trichiura and 50% with Necator americanus. All three parasites showed a highly aggregated distribution among hosts. Age/prevalence and age/intensity profiles were typical for both A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura with the highest worm burdens in the 50-10 year old children. For hookworm both prevalence and intensity curves were convex in shape with maximum infection levels in the 30-40 year old age class. Infected females had higher burdens of T. trichiura than infected males in all age classes of the population; there were no other effects of host gender. Analysis of associations between parasites within hosts revealed strong correlations between A. lumbricoides and T. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. Individuals with heavy infections of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura showed highly significant aggregation within households. Associations between a variety of household features and heavy infections with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura are described.

Laboratory indicators for monitoring HIV disease

Immunological monitoring of disease progression following HIV infection and seroconversion illness, latency and AIDS, not only helps in the basic investigation of the natural history of the viral infection in man, but also can assist in prognosis and treatment of AIDS-defining illnesses. However, outside clinical trials, these tests should be selected and used in clinical practice only if they are validated as relevant and effective. The absolute CD4+ T-helper lymphocyte count, measured by flow cytometry, has emerged as the best available investigation, but needs care in sampling due to diurnal and circadian rhythms, effects of age, pregnancy, therapy, intercurrent infections and technique. Sampling should provide a baseline and trends - monthly intervals initially, then quarterly in uncomplicated cases. Thresholds may be given for counts (e.g. 200/µl) below which prophylaxis against pneumocystis pneumonia should be administered, and repeating persistently low counts (e.g. below 50/µl) is seldom helpful in practice. Serum levels of beta-2 microglobulin, neopterin and immunoglobulins rarely add information. Physicians and laboratories should have testing guidelines based on clinical audit of best practice, based in turn on scientific understanding of the immunological processes involved.

High number of CD56(bright) NK-cells and persistently low CD4+ T-cells in a hemophiliac HIV/HCV co-infected patient without opportunistic infections.

BACKGROUND: Both the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), either alone or as coinfections, persist in their hosts by destroying and/or escaping immune defenses, with high morbidity as consequence. In some cases, however, a balance between infection and immunity is reached, leading to prolonged asymptomatic periods. We report a case of such an indolent co-infection, which could be explained by the development of a peculiar subset of Natural Killer (NK) cells. RESULTS: Persistently high peripheral levels of CD56+ NK cells were observed in a peculiar hemophiliac HIV/HCV co-infected patient with low CD4 counts, almost undetectable HIV viral load and no opportunistic infections. Thorough analysis of NK-subsets allowed to identify a marked increase in the CD56bright/dim cell ratio and low numbers of CD16+/CD56- cells. These cells have high levels of natural cytotoxicity receptors but low NCR2 and CD69, and lack both CD57 and CD25 expression. The degranulation potential of NK-cells which correlates with target cytolysis was atypically mainly performed by CD56bright NK-cells, whereas no production of interferon γ (IFN-γ) was observed following NK activation by K562 cells. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the expansion and lytic capacity of the CD56bright NK subset may be involved in the protection of this « rare » HIV/HCV co-infected hemophiliac A patient from opportunistic infections and virus-related cancers despite very low CD4+ cell counts.

Genome-wide association and genetic functional studies identify autism susceptibility candidate 2 gene (AUTS2) in the regulation of alcohol consumption.

Alcohol consumption is a moderately heritable trait, but the genetic basis in humans is largely unknown, despite its clinical and societal importance. We report a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of ∼2.5 million directly genotyped or imputed SNPs with alcohol consumption (gram per day per kilogram body weight) among 12 population-based samples of European ancestry, comprising 26,316 individuals, with replication genotyping in an additional 21,185 individuals. SNP rs6943555 in autism susceptibility candidate 2 gene (AUTS2) was associated with alcohol consumption at genome-wide significance (P = 4 × 10(-8) to P = 4 × 10(-9)). We found a genotype-specific expression of AUTS2 in 96 human prefrontal cortex samples (P = 0.026) and significant (P < 0.017) differences in expression of AUTS2 in whole-brain extracts of mice selected for differences in voluntary alcohol consumption. Down-regulation of an AUTS2 homolog caused reduced alcohol sensitivity in Drosophila (P < 0.001). Our finding of a regulator of alcohol consumption adds knowledge to our understanding of genetic mechanisms influencing alcohol drinking behavior.

La llengua de l'enemic com a llengua pròpia: cultures translatives del paisatge indígena nord-americà

This research paper seeks to bring into view the present-day situation of Native-American narrative in English. It is divided into four chapters. The first deals with the emergence of what we might call a Native-American narrative style and its evolution from 1900 up until its particularly forceful expression in 1968 with the appearance of N. Scott Momaday’s novel House Made of Dawn. To trace this evolution, we follow the chronology set forth by Paula Gunn Allen in her anthology Voice of the Turtle: American Indian Literature 1900-1970. In the second chapter we hear various voices from contemporary Native-American literary production as we follow Simon J. Ortiz’s anthology Speaking for the Generations: Native Writers on Writing. Noteworthy among these are Leslie Marmon Silko and Gloria Bird, alongside new voices such as those of Esther G. Belin and Daniel David Moses, and closing with Guatemalan-Mayan Victor D. Montejo, exiled in the United States. These writers’ contributions gravitate around two fundamental notions: the interdependence between human beings and the surrounding landscape, and the struggle for survival, which of necessity involves the deconstruction of the (post-)colonial subject. The third chapter deals with an anthology of short stories and poems by present-day Native-American women writers, edited by Joy Harjo and Gloria Bird and entitled Reinventing the Enemy’s Language: Contemporary Native Women’s Writings of North America. It too exemplifies personal and cultural reaffirmation on a landscape rich in ancestral elements, but also where one’s own voice takes shape in the language which, historically, is that of the enemy. In the final chapter we see how translation studies provide a critical perspective and fruitful reflection on the literary production of Native-American translative cultures, where a wide range of writers struggle to bring about the affirmative deconstruction of the colonialised subject. Thus there comes a turnaround in the function of the “enemy’s language,” giving rise also to the question of cultural incommensurability.

Factors determining the spontaneous activation of splenic dendritic cells in culture.

Dendritic cells (DCs) serve as a link between the innate and adaptive immune systems. The activation state of DCs is crucial in this role. However, when DCs are isolated from lymphoid tissues, purified and placed in culture they undergo 'spontaneous' activation. The basis of this was explored, using up-regulation of DC surface MHC II, CD40, CD80 and CD86 as indicators of DC activation. No evidence was found for DC damage during isolation or for microbial products causing the activation. The culture activation of spleen DCs differed from that of Langerhans cells when released from E-cadherin-mediated adhesions, since E-cadherin was not detected and activation still occurred with β-catenin null DCs. Much of the activation could be attributed to DC-DC interactions. Although increases in surface MHC II levels occurred under all culture conditions tested, the increase in expression of CD40, CD80 and CD86 was much less under culture conditions where such interactions were minimised. DC-to-DC contact under the artificial conditions of high DC concentration in culture induced the production of soluble factors and these, in turn, induced the up-regulation of co-stimulatory molecules on the DC surface.