934 resultados para Horizon of Expectations


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The ancient Greek medical theory based on balance or imbalance of humors disappeared in the western world, but does survive elsewhere. Is this survival related to a certain degree of health care efficiency? We explored this hypothesis through a study of classical Greco-Arab medicine in Mauritania. Modern general practitioners evaluated the safety and effectiveness of classical Arabic medicine in a Mauritanian traditional clinic, with a prognosis/follow-up method allowing the following comparisons: (i) actual patient progress (clinical outcome) compared with what the traditional 'tabib' had anticipated (= prognostic ability) and (ii) patient progress compared with what could be hoped for if the patient were treated by a modern physician in the same neighborhood. The practice appeared fairly safe and, on average, clinical outcome was similar to what could be expected with modern medicine. In some cases, patient progress was better than expected. The ability to correctly predict an individual's clinical outcome did not seem to be better along modern or Greco-Arab theories. Weekly joint meetings (modern and traditional practitioners) were spontaneously organized with a modern health centre in the neighborhood. Practitioners of a different medical system can predict patient progress. For the patient, avoiding false expectations with health care and ensuring appropriate referral may be the most important. Prognosis and outcome studies such as the one presented here may help to develop institutions where patients find support in making their choices, not only among several treatment options, but also among several medical systems.

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This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

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Cloud computing has recently become very popular, and several bioinformatics applications exist already in that domain. The aim of this article is to analyse a current cloud system with respect to usability, benchmark its performance and compare its user friendliness with a conventional cluster job submission system. Given the current hype on the theme, user expectations are rather high, but current results show that neither the price/performance ratio nor the usage model is very satisfactory for large-scale embarrassingly parallel applications. However, for small to medium scale applications that require CPU time at certain peak times the cloud is a suitable alternative.

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Primary brain tumours are heterogeneous in histology, genetics, and outcome. Although WHO's classification of tumours of the CNS has greatly helped to standardise diagnostic criteria worldwide, it does not consider the substantial progress that has been made in the molecular classification of many brain tumours. Recent practice-changing clinical trials have defined a role for routine assessment of MGMT promoter methylation in glioblastomas in elderly people, and 1p and 19q codeletions in anaplastic oligodendroglial tumours. Moreover, large-scale molecular profiling approaches have identified new mutations in gliomas, affecting IDH1, IDH2, H3F3, ATRX, and CIC, which has allowed subclassification of gliomas into distinct molecular subgroups with characteristic features of age, localisation, and outcome. However, these molecular approaches cannot yet predict patients' benefit from therapeutic interventions. Similarly, transcriptome-based classification of medulloblastoma has delineated four variants that might now be candidate diseases in which to explore novel targeted agents.

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The present doctoral dissertation is aimed at analyzing how and with what consequences gay father families and their children’s schools negotiate possible differences in the construction of family and gender at home and in the families’ social milieus. This objective fits in with the broader goal of researching how family-school interactons are influenced by the social context such as hegemonic masculinity (Connell, 2002). The thesis is based on qualitative fieldwork carried out with 18 nonheterosexual parent families in Spain, comprising 30 interviews with 44 people. The principal participant group were 14 de novo (adoptive and surrogacy) gay father families with resident preadolescent children. The findings revealed that all the de novo families assumed open communication strategies at school with inclusive consequences: apart from incidental questions and reactions of surprise, the children did not suffer homophobic bullying. The analisis showed that the necessary condition for inclusion was not the open communication but rather illocutionary orientation (Habermas, 1984; Soler & Flecha, 2010), understood as the parents’ sensitivity to the attitudes of their children and schools. The schools received the families in an inclusive manner, which, however, was only receptive and not proactive, therefore some of the families (reconstituted ones), coerced by the social context, got excluded. Gender relations at home were predominantly androgynous, and outside home predominantly traditional, yet the children negotiated this difference with inclusive consequences. They participated in hegemonic collective practices, thus confirming the thesis on the similarity between homo- and heterosexual-parent families (Golombok, 2006). Consistently, also the families’ identity politics was “assimilationist” and non-queer. Admittedly, the analisis showed that such a politics was increased by social expectations. Still, the findings suggest that educational and other family policies should draw on broad agendas of gender and family diversity rather than on the politics of difference and the unique status of LGB families.

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BACKGROUND: There is uncertain evidence of effectiveness of 5-aminosalicylates (5-ASA) to induce and maintain response and remission of active Crohn's disease (CD), and weak evidence to support their use in post-operative CD. AIM: To assess the frequency and determinants of 5-ASA use in CD patients and to evaluate the physicians' perception of clinical response and side effects to 5-ASA. METHODS: Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort, which collects data since 2006 on a large sample of IBD patients, were analysed. Information from questionnaires regarding utilisation of treatments and perception of response to 5-ASA were evaluated. Logistic regression modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 5-ASA use. RESULTS: Of 1420 CD patients, 835 (59%) were ever treated with 5-ASA from diagnosis to latest follow-up. Disease duration >10 years and colonic location were both significantly associated with 5-ASA use. 5-ASA treatment was judged to be successful in 46% (378/825) of treatment episodes (physician global assessment). Side effects prompting stop of therapy were found in 12% (98/825) episodes in which 5-ASA had been stopped. CONCLUSIONS: 5-Aminosalicylates were frequently prescribed in patients with Crohn's disease in the Swiss IBD cohort. This observation stands in contrast to the scientific evidence demonstrating a very limited role of 5-ASA compounds in the treatment of Crohn's disease.

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A rather high prevalence of mansoni schistosomiasis has been observed in some localities of Bananal, State of São Paulo, during the past decade. The highest prevalence of schistosomiasis was found in the Palha District; it was thus considered adequate for an evaluation of public awareness of the risks involved in acquiring schistosomiasis, a likely outcome of certain behavior patterns. We interviewed 542 district-dwellers. The 5-to-39 age-group constituted 65.5% of the whole sample. Concerning the infection, 69.2% had hearsay information; 46.1% know the infection; 69.6% know how it is acquired; 31.5% know about the symptoms and 57.1% know what can be done to avoid infection; 17.7% declared to have acquired the infection at least once in their lifetime; 62.3% reported total or partial immersion in collections of water of Bananal, once or twice a week, 53.9% of these for bathing or fishing. Although most (91.7%) households have treated running water, are connected to the sewage network or have septic tanks, 9% of the people interviewed use to defecate on the field. It became clear that the educational messages aimed at this population had not been adequate, having failed to fulfil any expectations. The local people received only piecemeal and subjective information about their problem. The control of schistosomiasis requires an integrated practice, which includes the analysis of macro-determinant factors, such as basic sanitation, habitation, education and health care. In short, we require a multidisciplinary vision of the mechanisms of transmission of the infection, which depends upon adequate planning and well trained personnel, intent on their educational work, to attain satisfactory results.

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It is presumed that drugs able to prevent bronchial spasm and/or inflammation may have therapeutic potential to control asthma symptoms. The local anaesthetic lidocaine has recently received increased attention as an alternative form of treatment for asthmatic patients. This paper reviews the major findings on the topic and summarizes the putative mechanisms underlying the airway effects of local anaesthetic agents. We think that lidocaine extends the spectrum of options in asthma therapy, probably by counteracting both spasmogenic and inflammatory stimuli in the bronchial airways. The possibility of development of new anti-asthma compounds based on the synthesis of lidocaine derivatives is also on the horizon.

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This is the Terms of Reference for the review of Allied Health Professional (AHP) support for children/young people with statements of special educational needs.It outlines expectations of the review and should be read in conjunction with the Project Initiation Document (PID) for Phase 1of the review, the Terms of Reference for the Project Board and the Engagement Plan for phase 1.

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Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

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The series of Horizon Reports is the most tangible outcome of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a qualitative research endeavour launched in 2002 which identifies and describes the emergingtechnologies with the greatest potential to have an impact on teaching, learning, research and creative expression in the global education field. This volume,the 2010 Horizon Report: Iberoamerican Edition, focuses on research in countries of the iberoamerican region (including the whole of Latin America, Spainand Portugal) and in the field of higher education. The 2010 Horizon Report: Iberoamerican Edition is the first to offer this regional contextualization and hasbeen produced by the NMC and the eLearn Center of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC).

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La sèrie d'informes Horizon és el resultat més tangible del Projecte Horizon del New Media Consortium, un esforç de recerca qualitativa iniciat el 2002, que identifica i descriu les tecnologies emergents amb més potencial d'impacte en l'ensenyament, l'aprenentatge, la recerca i la expressió creativa en l'àmbit educatiu global. Aquest volum, l'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana, se centra en la investigació en els països de la regió Iberoamericana (incloent-hi tota Llatinoamèrica, Espanya i Portugal) i en l'àmbit de l'educació superior. L'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana és el primer que ofereix aquesta contextualització regional i ha estat produït per l'NMC i el eLearn Center de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.

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La serie de Informes Horizon es el resultado más tangible del Proyecto Horizon del New Media Consortium, un esfuerzo de investigación cualitativa iniciado en 2002, que identifica y describe las tecnologías emergentes con mayor potencial de impacto en la enseñanza, el aprendizaje, la investigación y la expresión creativa en el ámbito educativo global. Este volumen, elInforme Horizon 2010: Edición Iberoamericana, centra la investigación en los países de la región Iberoamericana (incluyendo a toda Latinoamérica, España y Portugal) y en el ámbito de la educación superior. ElInforme Horizon 2010: Edición Iberoamericana es el primero que ofrece esta contextualización regional y ha sido producido por el NMC y el eLearn Center de laUniversitat Oberta de Catalunya.

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La sèrie d'informes Horizon és el resultat més tangible del Projecte Horizon del New Media Consortium, un esforç de recerca qualitativa iniciat el 2002 que identifica i descriu les tecnologies emergents amb més potencial d'impacte en l'ensenyament, l'aprenentatge, la recerca i la expressió creativa en l'àmbit educatiu global. Aquest volum, l'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana, se centra en la investigació en els països de la regió Iberoamericana (incloent-hi tota Llatinoamèrica, Espanya i Portugal) i en l'àmbit de l'educació superior. L'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana és el primer que ofereix aquesta contextualització regional i ha estat produït per l'NMC i el eLearn Center de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.

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Background: Little research has been carried out with regards to the inclusion of men during the birth process. The objective of this paper involves exploring the needs and expectations of the health services manifested by a group of fathers as a result of their experience during the birth process. Methods: Qualitative research was carried out in Granada in 2004 via individual interviews with fathers who showed shared responsibility in the upbringing. The profile is: employment, medium-high educational level, one or more child: 0-6 months of age. The transcript was subsequently submitted to hermeneutic analysis. Results: Some semantic constructs are: 1) Health Services do not concede the women as protagonists, 2) Birth process is depending on the body. Fathers can only support and fight for the relevance of men, 3) Men seem like “invisible”, 4) Health services inhibit their participation, and 5) have dealings with fathers according to their gender roles. The participants address the relationship between expectations of care during the birth process and unsatisfied demands, and the manner in which they employ the obstacles encountered within health services that inhibit their participation as arguments that confirm their separation from the process. Conclusions: This paper draws attention to the limited scope of the provision of healthcare during the birth process in terms of protagonism afforded to fathers. Indeed, despite their requisitory discourse, the interviewees manifest contradictory attitudes in the face of changes that require them to make commitments. We identify elements that could be improved to adapt services to the needs of fathers and vice versa.