Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Social effects on coworker reliance and individual contributions to intercultural teams

Which social perceptions and structures shape coworker reliance and contributions to team products? When people form an intercultural team, they launch a set of working relationships that may be affected by social perceptions and social structures. Social perceptions include beliefs about interpersonal similarity and also expectations of behavior based on professional and national memberships. Social structures include dyadic relationships and the patterns they form. In this study, graduate students from three cohorts were consistently more likely to rely on others with whom they had a professional relationship, while structural equivalence in the professional network had no effect. In only one of the cohorts, people were more likely to rely on others who were professionally similar to themselves. Expectations regarding professional or national groups had no effect on willingness to rely on members of those groups, but expectations regarding teammates' nations positively influenced individual contributions. Willingness to rely on one's teammates did not significantly influence individual contributions to the team. Number of professional ties to teammates increased individual contributions, and number of external ties decreased contributions. Finally, people whose professional networks included a mixture of brokerage and closure (higher ego network variance) made greater contributions to their teams.

Being stoned : a review of self-reported cannabis effects.

Although there has been considerable research into the adverse effects of cannabis, less attention has been directed toward subjective effects that may be associated with ongoing cannabis use. Examination of self-reported cannabis effects is an important issue in understanding the widespread use of cannabis. While reviews have identified euphoria as a primary factor in maintaining cannabis use, relaxation is the effect reported most commonly in naturalistic studies of cannabis users, irrespective of the method used. Self-reported effects in 12 naturalistic and 18 laboratory studies were compared. Regardless of methodology there was considerable variation in the effects experienced. Variation has been reported in terms of opposite effects being experienced by different individuals, variation of effects by individuals within a single occasion and between occasions of use. Factors that might explain this variation are outlined. Limitations of the available literature and suggested directions for future research are discussed.

Social adaptation of children with mild intellectual disability : effects of partial integration within primary school classes

Examined the social adaptation of 32 children in grades 3–6 with mild intellectual disability: 13 Ss were partially integrated into regular primary school classes and 19 Ss were full-time in separate classes. Sociometric status was assessed using best friend and play rating measures. Consistent with previous research, children with intellectual disability were less socially accepted than were a matched group of 32 children with no learning disabilities. Children in partially integrated classes received more play nominations than those in separate classes, but had no greater acceptance as a best friend. On teachers' reports, disabled children had higher levels of inappropriate social behaviours, but there was no significant difference in appropriate behaviours. Self-assessments by integrated children were more negative than those by children in separate classes, and their peer-relationship satisfaction was lower. Ratings by disabled children of their satisfaction with peer relationships were associated with ratings of appropriate social skills by themselves and their teachers, and with self-ratings of negative behaviour. The study confirmed that partial integration can have negative consequences for children with an intellectual disability.

Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.

Establishment of a mouse model of colitis and its use to evaluate the anti-inflammatory effects of two ghrelin peptides

Ghrelin is a gut-brain peptide hormone that induces appetite, stimulates the release of growth hormone, and has recently been shown to ameliorate inflammation. Recent studies have suggested that ghrelin may play a potential role in inflammation-related diseases such as inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). A previous study with ghrelin in the TNBS mouse model of colitis demonstrated that ghrelin treatment decreased the clinical severity of colitis and inflammation and prevented the recurrence of disease. Ghrelin may be acting at the immunological and epithelial level as the ghrelin receptor (GHSR) is expressed by immune cells and intestinal epithelial cells. The current project investigated the effect of ghrelin in a different mouse model of colitis using dextran sodium sulphate (DSS) – a luminal toxin. Two molecular weight forms of DSS were used as they give differing effects (5kDa and 40kDa). Ghrelin treatment significantly improved clinical colitis scores (p=0.012) in the C57BL/6 mouse strain with colitis induced by 2% DSS (5kDa). Treatment with ghrelin suppressed colitis in the proximal colon as indicated by reduced accumulative histopathology scores (p=0.03). Whilst there was a trend toward reduced scores in the mid and distal colon in these mice this did not reach significance. Ghrelin did not affect histopathology scores in the 40kDa model. There was no significant effect on the number of regulatory T cells or TNF-α secretion from cultured lymph node cells from these mice. The discovery of C-terminal ghrelin peptides, for example, obestatin and the peptide derived from exon 4 deleted proghrelin (Δ4 preproghrelin peptide) have raised questions regarding their potential role in biological functions. The current project investigated the effect of Δ4 peptide in the DSS model of colitis however no significant suppression of colitis was observed. In vitro epithelial wound healing assays were also undertaken to determine the effect of ghrelin on intestinal epithelial cell migration. Ghrelin did not significantly improve wound healing in these assays. In conclusion, ghrelin treatment displays a mild anti-inflammatory effect in the 5kDa DSS model. The potential mechanisms behind this effect and the disparity between these results and those published previously will be discussed.

Exercise and lymphoedema : Is it good or bad?

Being physically active during and following treatment for breast cancer has been associated with a range of benefits including improved fitness and function, body composition and immune function and reductions in stress, depression and anxiety, as well as the number and severity of treatment-related side-effects such as nausea, fatigue and pain, all of which contribute to improvements in quality of life. There is also emerging evidence linking active lifestyles with improved survival. Therefore, there is little doubt that participating in regular exercise following breast cancer is ‘good’. Unfortunately, research investigating the role of exercise for women considered at high-risk of lymphoedema or who have developed lymphedema following breast cancer is lacking. For fear of initiating or exacerbating lymphoedema, these women have traditionally been cautioned rather than encouraged to be regularly active. However, recent preliminary findings suggest that being inactive may increase risk of developing lymphedema, and that for those with lymphoedema, participation in an exercise program does not exacerbate the condition. This presentation will address what we know about the role of exercise following a breast cancer diagnosis and will provide some practical recommendations about becoming and staying regularly active following breast cancer, for those with and without lymphoedema.

The impact of police speed enforcement practices on self-reported speeding: An exploration of the effects of visibility and mobility

Research has highlighted the relationship between vehicle speed and increased crash risk and severity. Evidence suggests that police speed enforcement, in particular speed camera operations, can be an effective tool for reducing traffic crashes. A quantitative survey of Queensland drivers (n = 852) was conducted to investigate the impact of police speed enforcement methods on self-reported speeding behaviour. Results indicate that visible enforcement was associated with significantly greater self-reported compliance than covert operations irrespective of the mobility of the approach, and the effects on behaviour were longer lasting. The mobility of operations appeared to be moderated the visibility of the approach. Specifically, increased mobility was associated with increase reported compliant behaviour, but only for covert operations, and increased longevity of reported compliant behaviour, but only for overt operations. The perceived effectiveness of various speed enforcement approaches are also analysed across a range of driving scenarios. Results are discussed in light of the small effect sizes. Recommendations for policy and future research are presented.

"There's no way in hell I would pull up" : Deterrent and other effects of vehicle impoundment laws for hooning

Traffic law enforcement is based on deterrence principles, whereby drivers control their behaviour in order to avoid an undesirable sanction. For “hooning”-related driving behaviours in Queensland, the driver’s vehicle can be impounded for 48 hours, 3 months, or permanently depending on the number of previous hooning offences. It is assumed that the threat of losing something of value, their vehicle, will discourage drivers from hooning. While official data shows that the rate of repeat offending is low, an in-depth understanding of the deterrent effects of these laws should involve qualitative research with targeted drivers. A sample of 22 drivers who reported engaging in hooning behaviours participated in focus group discussions about the vehicle impoundment laws as applied to hooning offences in Queensland. The findings suggested that deterrence theory alone cannot fully explain hooning behaviour, as participants reported hooning frequently, and intended to continue doing so, despite reporting that it is likely that they will be caught, and perceiving the vehicle impoundment laws to be extremely severe. The punishment avoidance aspect of deterrence theory appears important, as well as factors over and above legal issues, particularly social influences. A concerning finding was drivers’ willingness to flee from police in order to avoid losing their vehicle permanently for a third offence, despite acknowledging risks to their own safety and that of others. This paper discusses the study findings in terms of the implications for future research directions, enforcement practices and policy development for hooning and other traffic offences for which vehicle impoundment is applied.

Competitiveness factors : a study of the real estate market in China

The execution of 'macro-adjustment' policies by the central government to cool down the overheated real estate market in the past few years has created an unfavourable operating environment for real estate developers in Mainland China. Developers need to rethink their business model and create a new form of competitive advantage in order to survive. Despite this, research into the factors that influence the competitiveness of the real estate market in China has been limited. Therefore, a survey of 58 real estate actitioners, experts and academics in China was conducted to probe opinion on the factors that influence competitiveness in real estate firms in China. Survey results suggest that the developer's financial competency, market coverage and management competencies are vital to its competitiveness. Findings also highlight the importance of industry ecognition/award, share in different types of property sales/development projects, profit after tax, growth rate of their securities price, and diversification of R&D in reflecting the competitiveness of real estate developers in China. The findings provide an insight into the factors that influence competitiveness in China's real estate market and also assist practitioners to formulate competitiveness improvement strategies.

Beneficial effects of exercise : shifting the focus from body weight to other markers of health

Background: Exercise is widely promoted as a method of weight management, while the other health benefits are often ignored. The purpose of this study was to examine whether exercise-induced improvements in health are influenced by changes in body weight. Methods: Fifty-eight sedentary overweight/obese men and women (BMI 31.8 (SD 4.5) kg/m2) participated in a 12-week supervised aerobic exercise intervention (70% heart rate max, five times a week, 500 kcal per session). Body composition, anthropometric parameters, aerobic capacity, blood pressure and acute psychological response to exercise were measured at weeks 0 and 12. Results: The mean reduction in body weight was −3.3 (3.63) kg (p<0.01). However, 26 of the 58 participants failed to attain the predicted weight loss estimated from individuals’ exercise-induced energy expenditure. Their mean weight loss was only −0.9 (1.8) kg (p<0.01). Despite attaining a lower-than-predicted weight reduction, these individuals experienced significant increases in aerobic capacity (6.3 (6.0) ml/kg/min; p<0.01), and a decreased systolic (−6.00 (11.5) mm Hg; p<0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (−3.9 (5.8) mm Hg; p<0.01), waist circumference (−3.7 (2.7) cm; p<0.01) and resting heart rate (−4.8 (8.9) bpm, p<0.001). In addition, these individuals experienced an acute exercise-induced increase in positive mood. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that significant and meaningful health benefits can be achieved even in the presence of lower-than-expected exercise-induced weight loss. A less successful reduction in body weight does not undermine the beneficial effects of aerobic exercise. From a public health perspective, exercise should be encouraged and the emphasis on weight loss reduced.

Predictions of angle dependent tortuosity and elasticity effects on sound propagation in cancellous bone

The anisotropic pore structure and elasticity of cancellous bone cause wave speeds and attenuation in cancellous bone to vary with angle. Previously published predictions of the variation in wave speed with angle are reviewed. Predictions that allow tortuosity to be angle dependent but assume isotropic elasticity compare well with available data on wave speeds at large angles but less well for small angles near the normal to the trabeculae. Claims for predictions that only include angle-dependence in elasticity are found to be misleading. Audio-frequency data obtained at audio-frequencies in air-filled bone replicas are used to derive an empirical expression for the angle-and porosity-dependence of tortuosity. Predictions that allow for either angle dependent tortuosity or angle dependent elasticity or both are compared with existing data for all angles and porosities.

Wear mechanisms and scale effects in two-body abrasion

The ‘particle size effect’ and its manifestation in abrasion still attracts considerable debate as to its origins and the ranking of its likely causes. Experiments have been conducted to study the important contribution that the formation of wear debris can have on the progression of wear. The experiments consist of unlubricated (dry) pin-on-disk tests with silicon carbide coated paper of varying particle size, with different pin material, diameter and loads. It has been observed that the influence of debris formation on wear rate is more pronounced for fine abrasives and soft-wearing materials. Consequently, it is proposed that the particle size effect can be explained in terms of geometrical scaling and the evolution of third-body effects with diminishing particle diameter.

Effects of collimator backscatter in an Elekta linac by Monte Carlo simulation

The effects of radiation backscattered from the secondary collimators into the monitor chamber in an Elekta linac (producing 6 and 10 MV photon beams) are investigated using BEAMnrc Monte Carlo simulations. The degree and effects of this backscattered radiation are assessed by evaluating the changes to the calculated dose in the monitor chamber, and by determining a correction factor for those changes. Additionally, the fluency and energy characteristics of particles entering the monitor chamber from the downstream direction are evaluated by examining BEAMnrc phase-space data. It is shown that the proportion of particles backscattered into the monitor chamber is small (<0.35 %), for all field sizes studied. However, when the backscatter plate is removed from the model linac, these backscattered particles generate a noticeable increase in dose to the monitor chamber (up to approximate to 2.4 % for the 6 MV beam and up to 4.4 % for the 10 MV beam). With its backscatter plate in place, the Elekta linac (operating at 6 and 10 MV) is subject to negligible variation of monitor chamber dose with field size. At these energies, output variations in photon beams produced by the clinical Elekta linear accelerator can be attributed to head scatter alone. Corrections for field-size-dependence of monitor chamber dose are not necessary when running Monte Carlo simulations of the Elekta linac operating at 6 and 10 MV.