Debt sustainability in historical perspective: The role of fiscal repression

This article examines the debt history of two contenders for European hegemony: 16th-centurySpain and 18th-century Britain. We analyze their fiscal behavior using measures of overborrowingand fiscal policy functions. Our results suggest that stringency was not key for Britain ssuccess in avoiding default. Instead, fiscal repression allowed the United Kingdom to borrowat below-market rates, thereby outspending its continental rivals.

Partisan competition, growth and the franchise

We present an argument for changes in the franchise in which an elite split along economic interests use the suffrage to influence implemented policies. Through the influence of these policies on the character of industrialization, we analyze the effects of franchise changes on economic growth. We identify in the social structure of society an explanation for the connection between enfranchisement and growth: When (1) there exist an economic conflict among the elite, (2) landed classes are not politically strong, and (3) there exists a critical mass of industrial workers, we observe both growth and democratization. The lack of conditions (1) or (2) resolves in stagnant autocracies while the absence of condition (3) drives growth-deterring democratic expansions. We provide historical support for our argument by analyzing the experience of 11 countries.

Active civic participation of immigrants in Portugal

Portugal’s historical past strongly influences the composition of the country’s immigrant population. The main third-country foreign nationals in Portugal originate traditionally from Portuguese-speaking African countries (namely Cape Verde, Angola, Guinea Bissau, and S. Tomé e Príncipe) and Brazil. In 2001, a newly created immigrant status entitled “permanence” authorization uncovered a quantitative and a qualitative change in the structure of immigrant population in Portugal. First, there was a quantitative jump from 223.602 foreigners in 2001 to 364.203 regularized foreigners in 2003. Secondly, there was a substantial qualitative shift in the composition of immigrants. The majority of the new immigrants began coming from Eastern European countries, such as Ukraine, Moldavia, Romania, and the Russian Federation. Thus, European countries outside the E.U. zone now rank second (after African countries) in their contribution of individuals to the stocks of immigrant population in Portugal. The differences between the new and traditional immigration flows are visible in the geographical distribution of immigrants and in their insertion into the labour market. While the traditional flows would congregate around the metropolitan area of Lisbon and in the Algarve, the new migratory flows tend to be more geographically dispersed and present in less urbanized areas of Portugal. In terms of insertion in the labour market, although the construction sector is still the most important industry for immigrant labour, Eastern European workers may also be found in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The institutional conditions that encourage immigrants’ civic participation are divided at three different levels: the state, the local, and the civil society levels. At the state level, the High Commissioner for Migrations and Ethnic Minorities is the main organizational structure along with a set of interrelated initiatives operating under specific regulatory frameworks, which act as mediators between state officials and the Portuguese civil society, and more specifically, immigrant communities. At the local level, some municipalities created consultative councils and municipal departments aiming at encouraging the participation and representation of interests from immigrant groups and association in local policies. In the civil society sphere, the main actors in Portugal spurring immigrants civic participation are immigrant associations, mainstream associations directed toward immigration topics, and unions. The legal conditions framing immigrants’ access to social housing, education, health, and social security in Portugal are also considered to be positive. Conditions restricting immigrants’ civic participation are mainly normative and include the Portuguese nationality law, the regulations shaping the political participation of immigrants, namely in what concerns their right to vote, and employment regulations restricting immigrants’ access to public administration positions. Part II of the report focuses on the active civic participation of third country immigrants. First, reasons for the lack of research on this issue in Portugal are explained. On the one hand, the recent immigration history and the more urgent needs regarding school and economic integration kept this issue out of the research spotlight. On the other hand, it was just in the beginning of the 1990s that immigrants took the very first steps toward collective mobilisation. Secondly, the literature review of Portuguese bibliography covers research on third country immigrants’ associative movement, research on local authorities’ policies and discussion about ethnic politics and political mobilisation of immigrants in Portugal. As political mobilisation of these groups has been made mainly through ethnic and/or migrant organisations, a brief history of immigrants' associative movement is given. Immigrant associations develop multiple roles, covering the social, the cultural, the economic and the political domains. Political claiming for the regularisation of illegal immigrants has been a permanent and important field of intervention since the mid-1990s. Research results reveal the com5 plex relations between ethnic mobilisation and the set of legal and institutional frameworks developed by local and national governmental authorities targeted to the incorporation of minority groups. Case studies on the Oeiras district and on the Amadora district are then presented. Conclusions underline that the most active immigrant groups are those from Cape Verde and Guinea Bissau, since these groups have constituted a higher number of ethnic associations, give priority to political claiming and present a more politicised discourse. Reflecting on the future of research on civic participation of third country immigrants in Portugal, the authors state that it would be interesting and relevant to compare the Portuguese situation with those of other European countries, with an older immigration history, and analyse how the Portuguese immigrants’ associative movement will be affected by a changing legal framework and the emergence of new opportunities within the set of structures regarding the political participation of minority groups.

A estação arqueológica de Salamansa (ilha de São Vicente, República de Cabo Verde)

Apresentam‑se os principais resultados obtidos nas duas missões arqueológicas patrocinadas pelo Centro Português de Actividades Subaquáticas (CPAS) à ilha de São Vicente (República de Cabo Verde), em 1998 e em 2005. Em 1998, confirmou‑se o efectivo interesse arqueológico do sítio, localizado sobre o mar, em local abrigado da vasta baía de Salamansa, situada na parte setentrional da ilha, tendo‑se registado a respectiva extensão e estratigrafia e procedido à colheita de amostras para datação. Embora os resultados dessa campanha tivessem sido publicados, indicando estação de carácter habitacional, revelada pela notável acumulação de conchas, acompanhada de abundantes fragmentos de cerâmicas manuais, de produção africana, mantinha‑se indefinida a sua verdadeira natureza. Impunha‑se, assim, proceder à escavação integral da área que ainda subsistia da estação — sujeita de forma contínua a forte erosão marinha — bem como à colheita de novos materiais para datação, de forma a confirmar as conclusões preliminares anteriormente obtidas, objectivos que se concretizaram em 2005. Deste modo, foi possível concluir que, contrariando a hipótese, de início considerada, de poder corresponder a um testemunho da ocupação da ilha em época anterior à chegada dos Portugueses — hipótese que já as primeiras datas de radiocarbono contradiziam — se trata de um sítio onde uma unidade habitacional construída por muros de pedra seca, de planta ortogonal, revela inspiração europeia, aliás sublinhada pelos materiais exumados, onde estão representados produtos com tal origem, como cachimbos de caulino, vidros, faianças portuguesas, e projécteis de armas de fogo, a par de objectos oriundos do Extremo Oriente, num quadro dominado pelas produções cerâmicas africanas. Esta situação evidencia um estabelecimento cuja ocupação se centrou no século XVII, conforme indicam os materiais recolhidos e os resultados das datações obtidas, francamente aberto aos contactos de longa distância, apesar do isolamento do local escolhido. Os restos faunísticos recolhidos, com a presença deburro e de boi, sugerem um estacionamento sedentário, sendo a alimentação assegurada essencialmente pela captura de tartarugas, pela pesca e pela recolecção de moluscos marinhos (especialmente grandes lapas) e complementada pelo consumo de cabra, que poderia ser doméstica ou caçada, dado o estado selvagem a que retornou ali esta espécie. na última parte do trabalho, discutem‑se as diversas hipóteses susceptíveis de explicar esta estação — desde um entreposto comercial relacionado com a exploração agro‑pecuária da ilha de Santo Antão, passando por pequeno estabelecimento especializado de apoio à navegação, com a produção de carne salgada de tartaruga, até ter constituído refúgio relacionado com a intensa pirataria vigente à época no arquipélago, tendo presente os elementos históricos conhecidos, que, aliás, indicam que o início da ocupação permanente de São Vicente só se produziu a partir da segunda década do século XIX. Seja como for, a forte componente cultural africana revelada pelo espólio destes primeiros ocupantes da ilha expressa‑se também pelos rituais que terão envolvido o abandono do estabelecimento, com o enterramento de dois vasos emborcados sob o chão da habitação explorada, e a deposição de uma pequena taça, nas mesmas circunstâncias, junto à parede da mesma, do lado externo.

Endogenous constitutions

We present a theory of the choice of alternative democratic constitutions, a majoritarian or a consensual one, in an unequal society. A majoritarian democracy redistributes resources from the collectivity toward relatively few people, and has a relatively small government and low level of taxation. A consensual democracy redistributes resources toward a broader spectrum of social groups but also has a larger government and a higher level of taxation. We show that a consensual system turns out to be preferred by society when ex ante income inequality is relatively low, while a majoritarian system is chosen when income inequality is relatively high. We also obtain that consensual democracies should be expected to be ruled more often by center-left coalitions while the right should have an advantage in majoritarian constitutions. The implications for the relationship between inequality and redistribution are discussed. Historical evidence and a cross-sectional analysis support our results.

Did colonization matter for growth? An empirical exploration into the historical causes of Africa's underdevelopment

We investigate the impact of 20th--century European colonizationon growth in Africa. We find that in the 1960--88 period growth has beenfaster for dependencies than for colonies; for British and Frenchcolonies than for Portuguese, Belgian and Italian ones; and for countrieswith less economic penetration during the colonial period. On average,African growth accelerates after decolonization. Proxies for colonialheritage add explanatory power to growth regressions and make indicatorsfor human capital, political and ethnic instability lose significance.Colonial variables capture the same effects of a sub--Saharan dummy andreduce its significance when jointly included in a cross sectionalregression with 98 countries.

Chimioprévention actuelle et visions futures [Present chemoprevention and future vision].

Cancer chemoprevention is defined as the use of natural or synthetic agents to reverse, suppress or prevent carcinogenic progression to invasive cancer. The success of several clinical trials within high-risk patients suggests that chemoprevention is a rational and promising strategy. This review will resume the principal molecular mechanisms of chemoprevention and discuss results and clinical outcome of selected clinical trials. The difficulties in clinical application and future directions will be highlighted.

Historical contingency affects signaling strategies and competitive abilities in evolving populations of simulated robots.

One of the key innovations during the evolution of life on earth has been the emergence of efficient communication systems, yet little is known about the causes and consequences of the great diversity within and between species. By conducting experimental evolution in 20 independently evolving populations of cooperatively foraging simulated robots, we found that historical contingency in the occurrence order of novel phenotypic traits resulted in the emergence of two distinct communication strategies. The more complex foraging strategy was less efficient than the simpler strategy. However, when the 20 populations were placed in competition with each other, the populations with the more complex strategy outperformed the populations with the less complex strategy. These results demonstrate a tradeoff between communication efficiency and robustness and suggest that stochastic events have important effects on signal evolution and the outcome of competition between distinct populations.

Mycorrhizal ecology and evolution: the past, the present, and the future.

1406 I. 1407 II. 1408 III. 1410 IV. 1411 V. 1413 VI. 1416 VII. 1418 1418 References 1419 SUMMARY: Almost all land plants form symbiotic associations with mycorrhizal fungi. These below-ground fungi play a key role in terrestrial ecosystems as they regulate nutrient and carbon cycles, and influence soil structure and ecosystem multifunctionality. Up to 80% of plant N and P is provided by mycorrhizal fungi and many plant species depend on these symbionts for growth and survival. Estimates suggest that there are c. 50 000 fungal species that form mycorrhizal associations with c. 250 000 plant species. The development of high-throughput molecular tools has helped us to better understand the biology, evolution, and biodiversity of mycorrhizal associations. Nuclear genome assemblies and gene annotations of 33 mycorrhizal fungal species are now available providing fascinating opportunities to deepen our understanding of the mycorrhizal lifestyle, the metabolic capabilities of these plant symbionts, the molecular dialogue between symbionts, and evolutionary adaptations across a range of mycorrhizal associations. Large-scale molecular surveys have provided novel insights into the diversity, spatial and temporal dynamics of mycorrhizal fungal communities. At the ecological level, network theory makes it possible to analyze interactions between plant-fungal partners as complex underground multi-species networks. Our analysis suggests that nestedness, modularity and specificity of mycorrhizal networks vary and depend on mycorrhizal type. Mechanistic models explaining partner choice, resource exchange, and coevolution in mycorrhizal associations have been developed and are being tested. This review ends with major frontiers for further research.

First record of Coprophanaeus bellicosus (Olivier) (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in a "Brejo de Altitude" forest in northeastern Brazil: a historical biogeographical approach

First record of Coprophanaeus bellicosus (Olivier) (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in a "Brejo de Altitude" forest in northeastern Brazil: a historical biogeographical approach. This note presents the first record for a species of dung beetle of the genus Coprophanaeus, subgenus Megaphanaeus, in a "Brejo de Altitude" forest. Besides the new record, the paper discusses biogeographic aspects of the species and subgenus, as well as of the natural history of the "Brejos de Altitude", unique ecosystems in the northeast region of Brazil.

Preliminary slope mass movement susceptibility mapping using DEM and LiDAR DEM

Hazard mapping in mountainous areas at the regional scale has greatly changed since the 1990s thanks to improved digital elevation models (DEM). It is now possible to model slope mass movement and floods with a high level of detail in order to improve geomorphologic mapping. We present examples of regional multi-hazard susceptibility mapping through two Swiss case studies, including landslides, rockfall, debris flows, snow avalanches and floods, in addition to several original methods and software tools. The aim of these recent developments is to take advantage of the availability of high resolution DEM (HRDEM) for better mass movement modeling. Our results indicate a good correspondence between inventories of hazardous zones based on historical events and model predictions. This paper demonstrates that by adapting tools and methods issued from modern technologies, it is possible to obtain reliable documents for land planning purposes over large areas.

The economic effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber hypothesis in the German Lands

Many theories, most famously Max Weber s essay on the Protestant ethic, have hypothesizedthat Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerablereligious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, theGerman Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis.Using population figures in a dataset comprising 272 cities in the years 1300 1900, I find no effectsof Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is robust to the inclusion of a varietyof controls, and does not appear to depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition,Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development.I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates ofthe effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results.

Amoeba-resisting Chlamydiales present in domestic drinking water and their potential role in pneumonia

Chlamydia-related bacteria classified in the Chlamydiales order, are strictly intracellular bacteria and are able for the most to replicate in free-living amoebae. Amoebae, ubiquitous in the environment and especially in water, are very resistant to disinfection used in drinking water production. Thus, amoebae may reach easily the distribution and domestic water system, potentially sheltering amoeba-resisting bacteria including Legionella, mycobacteria and Chlamydiales. Indeed, some of these amoeba-resisting bacteria have been shown to cause respiratory infections in people inhaling contaminated water. Therefore, an environmental and clinical study was conducted to determine if Chlamydiales bacteria are also involved in respiratory infections and if a transmission through domestic drinking water could occur. First, large scale molecular and serological tools specific of Chlamydia-related bacteria were developed and then were applied on clinical samples from patients with and without pneumonia. Simultaneously, water and biofilm samples from households of the same patients were investigated using molecular and culture methods for the presence of Chlamydiales bacteria. Chlamydiales were detected in the nasopharyngeal flora from patients with and without pneumonia. However, no significant difference was observed between both groups. Conversely, serological investigations showed that antibody reactivity against members of the Criblamydiaceae was associated with pneumonia. The thesis provided very efficient tools that showed the presence of Chlamydiales in human nasopharyngeal flora as well as in the majority of the domestic drinking water. However, no transmission from domestic drinking water to human could be demonstrated. These tools will help in the future specifying the ecology and pathogenicity of the Chlamydia-re\ated bacteria and especially of the species belonging to the Criblamydiaceae family.