Drivers' ratings of different components of their own driving skill: a greater illusion of superiority for skills that relate to accident involvement

Different components of driving skill relate to accident involvement in different ways. For instance, while hazard-perception skill has been found to predict accident involvement, vehicle-control skill has not. We found that drivers rated themselves superior to both their peers and the average driver on 18 components of driving skill (N = 181 respondents). These biases were greater for hazard-perception skills than for either vehicle-control skills or driving skill in general. Also, ratings of hazard-perception skill related to self-perceived safety after overall skill was controlled for. We suggest that although drivers appear to appreciate the role of hazard perception in safe driving, any safety benefit to be derived from this appreciation may be undermined by drivers' inflated opinions of their own hazard-perception skill. We also tested the relationship between illusory beliefs about driving skill and risk taking and looked at ways of manipulating drivers' illusory beliefs.

Proposal of an admittance enhanced redundant joint mechanism to improve backdrivability

This paper describes a proposed admittance enhanced redundant joint mechanism (AERJM) which allows greater flexibility in the design of robotic joints. First, the basic concept of a redundant joint mechanism that reduces joint inertia is explained. Second, the AERJM structure is discussed. AERJM consists of a redundancy introducing mechanism (RIM), the adjustable admittance mechanism (AAM) and an admittance enhancing actuator. The working principles of the AERJM concept are analysed. The design and a working prototype, consisting of a variable reduction mechanism, along with a spring and a damper with constant coefficients, are described.

The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China

Recent changes in climate have had a measurable impact on crop yield in China. The objective of this study is to investigate how climate variability affects wheat yield in China at different spatial scales. First the response of wheat yield to the climate at the provincial level from 1978 to 1995 for China was analysed. Wheat yield variability was only correlated with climate variability in some regions of China. At the provincial level, the variability of precipitation had a negative impact on wheat yield in parts of southeast China, but the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on wheat yield in only a few provinces, where significant variability in precipitation explained about 23–60% of yield variability, and temperature variability accounted for 37–41% of yield variability from 1978 to 1995. The correlation between wheat yield and climate for the whole of China from 1985 to 2000 was investigated at five spatial scales using climate data. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) proportions of the grid cells with a significant yield–precipitation correlation declined progressively from 14.6% at 0.5° to 0% at 5° scale. In contrast, the proportion of grid cells significant for the yield–temperature correlation increased progressively from 1.9% at 0.5° scale to 16% at 5° scale. This indicates that the variability of precipitation has a higher association with wheat yield at small scales (0.5°, 2°/2.5°) than at larger scales (4°/5.0°); but wheat yield has a good association with temperature at all levels of aggregation. The precipitation variable at the smaller scales (0.5°, 2°/2.5°) is a dominant factor in determining inter-annual wheat yield variability more so than at the larger scales (4°/5°). We conclude that in the current climate the relationship between wheat yield and each of precipitation and temperature becomes weaker and stronger, respectively, with an increase in spatial scale.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Recognition of greater diversity of Bacillus species and related bacteria in human faeces

In a study looking at the culturable, aerobic Actinobacteria associated with the human gastrointestinal tract, the vast majority of isolates obtained from dried human faeces belonged to the genus Bacillus and related bacteria. A total of 124 isolates were recovered from the faeces of 10 healthy adult donors. 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses showed the majority belonged to the families Bacillaceae (n = 81) and Paenibacillaceae (n = 3), with Bacillus species isolated from all donors. Isolates tentatively identified as Bacillus clausii (n = 32) and B. licheniformis (n = 28) were recovered most frequently, with the genera Lysinibacillus, Ureibacillus, Oceanobacillus, Ornithinibacillus and Virgibacillus represented in some donors. Phenotypic data confirmed the identities of isolates belonging to well-characterized species. Representatives of the phylum Actinobacteria were recovered in much lower numbers (n = 11). Many of the bacilli exhibited antimicrobial activity against one or more strains of Clostridium difficile, C. perfringens, Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus, with some (n = 12) found to have no detectable cytopathic effect on HEp-2 cells. This study has revealed greater diversity within gut-associated aerobic spore-formers than previous studies, and suggests that bacilli with potential as probiotics could be isolated from the human gut.

Confucius, constructivism and the impact of continuing professional development on teachers of English in China

In this article we explore issues around the sustainability and appropriateness of professional development for secondary teachers of English in China offered by overseas providers from the perspective of teachers who completed courses at the University of Reading between 2003 and 2010. We start by offering an overview of English teaching in China. We then describe the collection and analysis of interviews and focus groups discussions involving former participants, their teaching colleagues and senior management, as well as classroom observation. Evidence is presented for changes in teachers’ philosophies of education directly attributable to participation in the courses; for improved teacher competencies (linguistic, cultural and pedagogical) in the classroom; and for the ways in which returnees are undertaking new roles and responsibilities which exploit their new understandings. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for both providers and sponsors of CPD for English language teachers. We conclude that the recognition of English as an essential element in the modernisation of China, together with the growing awareness of the weaknesses of traditional approaches to the teaching of the language, has opened up new spaces for dialogue concerning pedagogy and professional practice. It is clearly important, however, that new approaches to the teaching of English are presented in a way which allows teachers to decide which elements should be incorporated into their teaching and how.