Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Povoações, freguesias e vilas na Paraíba Colonial: Pombal e Sousa, 1697-1800

The towns presently named Pombal and Sousa, located in the hinterland of the State of Paraíba, Brazil, still keep vestiges of the colonization process they went through along the 18th and 19th centuries, when they both emerged as settlement nuclei in the extreme West of the then captaincy of Paraíba and attained the status of freguesia and vila in a later period. This research aims to comprehend the process of urban formation and development of the colonial urban nuclei of Pombal and Sousa as they became povoados (hamlets), freguesias (parishes) and vilas (small urban communities with a local government), according to territorial expansion policies implemented by the Portuguese government from 1697 to 1800. The choice of the two urban settlements for this survey lies in the fact that they were part of the great conquest and colonization program undertaken by the Portuguese Crown. Another aspect that was considered was the fact that those towns are the oldest urban nuclei of Paraíba s hinterland. They came into being as early as in the times of the colony, thus producing a favorable environment to the study of the changes that occurred in the captaincy s hinterland scenery resulting from the process of formation and development of the colonial urban space. Three fundamental categories of analysis were defined since they have a direct bearing upon the urban configuration of the two colonization nuclei: povoado, freguesia and vila. The three of them are related to civil and ecclesiastic jurisdictions. Field, documentation and bibliography surveys were undertaken in order to develop the study. They allowed for the finding of vestiges of the old, colonial urban structures and for the development of theoretical analysis based on present-day studies of issues relating to the colonial urban history. The study purposes were, therefore, to try to understand how the old urban nuclei of Pombal and Sousa fit in the territorial expansion policies undertaken by the Portuguese government; to relate the process of urban formation and development of such nuclei with the categories of analysis povoação-freguesia-vila by discussing the relations and influences they exert over one another and their territory, as well as to unveil, as much as possible, the configuration the urban spaces that were shaped along the 18th century

The Serido Group of NE Brazil, a late Neoproterozoic pre- to syn-collisional basin in West Gondwana: insights from SHRIMP U-Pb detrital zircon ages and Sm-Nd crustal residence (T-DM) ages

The Serido Group is a deformed and metamorphosed metasedimentary sequence that overlies early Paleoproterozoic to Archean basement of the Rio Grande do Norte domain in the Borborema Province of NE Brazil. The age of the Serido Group has been disputed over the past two decades, with preferred sedimentation ages being either Paleoproterozoic or Neoproterozoic. Most samples of the Serido Formation, the upper part of the Serido Group, have Sm-Nd T-DM ages between 1200 and 1600 Ma. Most samples of the Jucurutu Formation, the lower part of the Serido Group, have T-DM ages ranging from 1500 to 1600 Ma; some basal units have T-DM ages as old as 2600 Ma, reflecting proximal basement. Thus, based on Sm-Nd data, most, if not all, of the Serido Group was deposited after 1600 Ma and upper parts must be younger than 1200 Ma.Cathodoluminescence photos of detrital zircons show very small to no overgrowths produced during ca. 600 Ma Brasiliano deformation and metamorphism, so that SHRIMP and isotope dilution U-Pb ages must represent crystallization ages of the detrital zircons. Zircons from meta-arkose near the base of the Jucurutu Formation yield two groups of ages: ca. 2200 Ma and ca. 1800 Ma. In contrast, zircons from a metasedimentary gneiss higher in the Jucurutu Formation yield much younger ages, with clusters at ca. 1000 Ma and ca. 650 Ma. Zircons from metasedimentary and metatuffaceous units in the Serido Formation also yield ages primarily between 1000 and 650 Ma, with clusters at 950-1000, 800, 750, and 650 Ma. Thus, most, if not all, of the Serido Group must be younger than 650 Ma. Because these units were deformed and metamorphosed in the ca. 600 Ma Brasiliano fold belt during assembly of West Gondwana, deposition probably occurred ca. 610-650 Ma, soon after crystallization of the youngest population of zircons and before or during the onset of Brasiliano deformation.The Serido Group was deposited upon Paleoproterozoic basement in a basin receiving detritus from a variety of sources. The Jucurutu Formation includes some basal volcanic rocks and initially received detritus from proximal 2.2-2.0 Ga (Transamazonian) to late Paleoproterozoic (1.8-1.7 Ga) basement. Provenance for the upper Jucurutu Formation and all of the Serido Formation was dominated by more distal and younger sources ranging in age from 1000 to 650 Ma. We suggest that the Serido basin may have developed as the result of late Neoproterozoic extension of a pre-existing continental basement, with formation of small marine basins that were largely floored by cratonic basement (subjacent oceanic crust has not yet been found). Immature sediment was initially derived from surrounding land; as the basin evolved much of the detritus probably came from highlands to the south (present coordinates). Alternatively, if the Patos shear zone is a major terrane boundary, the basin may have formed as an early collisional foredeep associated with south-dipping subduction. In any case, within 30 million years the region was compressed, deformed, and metamorphosed during final assembly of West Gondwana and formation of the Brasiliano-Pan African fold belts. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of VEGFR-2 targeted microbubbles (BR55, Bracco imaging) for the early ultrasound evaluation of response to antiangiogenic treatment in a xenograft model of hepatocarcinoma

Aim: To evaluate the early response to treatment to an antiangiogenetic drug (sorafenib) in a heterotopic murine model of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using ultrasonographic molecular imaging. Material and Methods: the xenographt model was established injecting a suspension of HuH7 cells subcutaneously in 19 nude mice. When tumors reached a mean diameter of 5-10 mm, they were divided in two groups (treatment and vehicle). The treatment group received sorafenib (62 mg/kg) by daily oral gavage for 14 days. Molecular imaging was performed using contrast enhanced ultrasound (CEUS), by injecting into the mouse venous circulation a suspension of VEGFR-2 targeted microbubbles (BR55, kind gift of Bracco Swiss, Geneve, Switzerland). Video clips were acquired for 6 minutes, then microbubbles (MBs) were destroyed by a high mechanical index (MI) impulse, and another minute was recorded to evaluate residual circulating MBs. The US protocol was repeated at day 0,+2,+4,+7, and +14 from the beginning of treatment administration. Video clips were analyzed using a dedicated software (Sonotumor, Bracco Swiss) to quantify the signal of the contrast agent. Time/intensity curves were obtained and the difference of the mean MBs signal before and after high MI impulse (Differential Targeted Enhancement-dTE) was calculated. dTE represents a numeric value in arbitrary units proportional to the amount of bound MBs. At day +14 mice were euthanized and the tumors analyzed for VEGFR-2, pERK, and CD31 tissue levels using western blot analysis. Results: dTE values decreased from day 0 to day +14 both in treatment and vehicle groups, and they were statistically higher in vehicle group than in treatment group at day +2, at day +7, and at day +14. With respect to the degree of tumor volume increase, measured as growth percentage delta (GPD), treatment group was divided in two sub-groups, non-responders (GPD>350%), and responders (GPD<200%). In the same way vehicle group was divided in slow growth group (GPD<400%), and fast growth group (GPD>900%). dTE values at day 0 (immediately before treatment start) were higher in non-responders than in responders group, with statistical difference at day 2. While dTE values were higher in the fast growth group than in the slow growth group only at day 0. A significant positive correlation was found between VEGFR-2 tissue levels and dTE values, confirming that level of BR55 tissue enhancement reflects the amount of tissue VEGF receptor. Conclusions: the present findings show that, at least in murine experimental models, CEUS with BR55 is feasable and appears to be a useful tool in the prediction of tumor growth and response to sorafenib treatment in xenograft HCC.

Eocene to Early Miocene palaeoclimate of Saxony, Germany (Table 4)

In the present study, proxy data concerning changes in atmospheric CO2 and climatic conditions from the Late Eocene to the Early Miocene were acquired by applying palaeobotanical methods. Fossil floras from 10 well-documented locations in Saxony, Germany, were investigated with respect to (1) stomatal density/index of fossil leaves from three different taxa (Eotrigonobalanus furcinervis, Laurophyllum pseudoprinceps and Laurophyllum acutimontanum), (2) the coexistence approach (CA) based on nearest living relatives (NLR) and (3) leaf margin analysis (LMA). Whereas the results of approach (1) indicate changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, approaches (2) and (3) provide climate data. The results of the analysis of stomatal parameters indicate that the atmospheric CO2 concentration was higher during the Late Eocene than during the Early Oligocene and increased towards the Late Oligocene. A lower atmospheric pCO2 level after the Late Eocene is also suggested by an increase in marine palaeoproductivity at this time. From the Late Oligocene onwards, no changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration can be detected with the present data. For the considered sites, the results of the coexistence approach and of the leaf margin analysis document a significant cooling event from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene. The pCO2 decrease from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene indicated by the stomatal data raised in this study was thus coupled to a temperature decrease which is reflected by the present datasets. From the Early Oligocene onwards, however, no further fundamental climate change can be inferred for the considered locations. The pCO2 increase from the Early Oligocene to the Late Oligocene, which is indicated by the present data, is thus not accompanied by a climate change at the considered sites. A warming event during the Late Oligocene is, however, recorded by marine climate archives. According to the present data, no change in pCO2 occurred during the cooling event at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, which is also indicated by marine data. The quality and validity of stomatal parameters as sensors for atmospheric CO2 concentration are discussed.

Eocene to Quaternary benthic foraminifers from the Izu-Bonin Arc

The benthic foraminifer fauna at Sumisu Rift Sites 790 and 791 indicates that a deep open-ocean (>2300 m) or a basin with open-ocean access existed between 1.1 and 0.7 Ma at the time of the initiation of rifting. The appearance of a low- to medium-oxygen fauna (1600-2300 m) between 0.7 and 0.5 Ma suggests that the open-ocean access may have been terminated at this time because of the development of volcanoes and rift flank uplifts around the basin. The occurrence of low-oxygen faunas at 0.03 Ma suggests a secondary closing of the basin. The lower bathyal benthic faunas from lower Pliocene sediments of rift margin Site 788 suggest about 0.6-1.6 km of total basement uplift. This uplift may have led to the formation of the major hiatus between 2.3 and <0.3 Ma. The faunal changes of benthic foraminifers at Sites 792 and 793 in the forearc basin document a shallowing water depth from below the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) (about 3.5 km) in the late early Oligocene to the present depths of 1800 and 2975 m, respectively. These data suggest about 1 km of total basement uplift in the inner part of the forearc basin (Site 792) and about 0.6 km total basement subsidence in the central part of the forearc basin (Site 793) since about 31 Ma. The former uplift led to a thinner sediment accumulation (800 m) and the latter subsidence to a thicker sediment accumulation (1400 m) at these sites. Faunal changes of benthic foraminifers observed in Sites 782 and 786 sequences drilled at the outer-arc high document a deepening water depth from 1.3 to 2.1 km in late Eocene to the present depth of about 3 km. These data suggest about 1.1-1.9 and 1.3-2.1 km of total basement subsidence at Sites 786 and 782, respectively. These results indicate total basement uplift in the inner part of the Bonin arc-trench system since late Oligocene and total basement subsidence in the outer part of the system since late Eocene. The last occurrence (LO) of Stilostomella spp. and Pleurostomella spp. and the first occurrence (F0) of Bulimina aculeata d'Orbigny occurred consistently at 0.7 Ma at all three arc proximal sites (790,791, and 792). This fact is taken to suggest a change of water mass, from one originating from the central part of the ocean to that originating from ocean-margin areas at that time.

Late Miocene to Early Pliocene radiolarians from ODP Hole 178-1095B

Early Pliocene to middle late Miocene hemipelagic and distal turbidite sediments from Hole 1095B, near the Antarctic Peninsula, yield moderately abundant, moderately well preserved radiolarian faunas and other biosiliceous material (diatoms, silicoflagellates, and sponge spicules). Preservation characteristics, however, vary strongly even between closely related samples, and there are many intervals of poor preservation. In the 140- to 460-meters below seafloor interval studied, it was possible to identify the following standard Southern Ocean radiolarian zones: Upsilon, Tau, Amphymenium challengerae, Acrosphaera? labrata, Siphonosphaera vesuvius, and upper Acrosphaera australis (total age range ~4-10 Ma). Some normally common radiolarian groups, such as actinommids, are unusually rare in the studied material, and the relative ranges of several individual species, such as Acrosphaera labrata vs. A. australis, appear to be somewhat anomalous. These observations imply that the ranges of taxa in this section may be somewhat diachronous, due to either local ecologic factors and/or the highly variable preservation of the faunas. Thus, the ages of events reported are probably only approximate, although they are still useful for constraining the age of sediments in this section.

A nucleolar protein related to ribosomal protein L7 is required for an early step in large ribosomal subunit biogenesis

The Saccharomyces cerevisiae Rlp7 protein has extensive identity and similarity to the large ribosomal subunit L7 proteins and shares an RNA-binding domain with them. Rlp7p is not a ribosomal protein; however, it is encoded by an essential gene and therefore must perform a function essential for cell growth. In this report, we show that Rlp7p is a nucleolar protein that plays a critical role in processing of precursors to the large ribosomal subunit RNAs. Pulse–chase labeling experiments with Rlp7p-depleted cells reveal that neither 5.8SS, 5.8SL, nor 25S is produced, indicating that both the major and minor processing pathways are affected. Analysis of processing intermediates by primer extension indicates that Rlp7p-depleted cells accumulate the 27SA3 precursor RNA, which is normally the major substrate (85%) used to produce the 5.8S and 25S rRNAs, and the ratio of 27SBL to 27SBS precursors changes from approximately 1:8 to 8:1 (depleted cells). Because 27SA3 is the direct precursor to 27SBS, we conclude that Rlp7p is specifically required for the 5′ to 3′ exonucleolytic trimming of the 27SA3 into the 27SBS precursor. As it is essential for processing in both the major and minor pathways, we propose that Rlp7p may act as a specificity factor that binds precursor rRNAs and tethers the enzymes that carry out the early 5′ to 3′ exonucleolytic reactions that generate the mature rRNAs. Rlp7p may also be required for the endonucleolytic cleavage in internal transcribed spacer 2 that separates the 5.8S rRNA from the 25S rRNA.

Differential Control of Xanthophylls and Light-Induced Stress Proteins, as Opposed to Light-Harvesting Chlorophyll a/b Proteins, during Photosynthetic Acclimation of Barley Leaves to Light Irradiance

Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) plants were grown at different photon flux densities ranging from 100 to 1800 μmol m−2 s−1 in air and/or in atmospheres with reduced levels of O2 and CO2. Low O2 and CO2 partial pressures allowed plants to grow under high photosystem II (PSII) excitation pressure, estimated in vivo by chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, at moderate photon flux densities. The xanthophyll-cycle pigments, the early light-inducible proteins, and their mRNA accumulated with increasing PSII excitation pressure irrespective of the way high excitation pressure was obtained (high-light irradiance or decreased CO2 and O2 availability). These findings indicate that the reduction state of electron transport chain components could be involved in light sensing for the regulation of nuclear-encoded chloroplast gene expression. In contrast, no correlation was found between the reduction state of PSII and various indicators of the PSII light-harvesting system, such as the chlorophyll a-to-b ratio, the abundance of the major pigment-protein complex of PSII (LHCII), the mRNA level of LHCII, the light-saturation curve of O2 evolution, and the induced chlorophyll-fluorescence rise. We conclude that the chlorophyll antenna size of PSII is not governed by the redox state of PSII in higher plants and, consequently, regulation of early light-inducible protein synthesis is different from that of LHCII.

Five things we need to know about the on-demand economy. CEPS Essay No. 21/8 January 2016

The last few years have witnessed the exponential growth of platforms like Uber and Airbnb and the creation of countless other less well-known examples. The expansion of the on-demand economy puts huge pressure on regulators to adapt it to the existing frameworks for labour and taxation. The rapid growth of the sector also divides experts: it is seen by many as threat for working conditions, and by others as an incredible opportunity. The purpose of this essay is to take a balanced perspective on what we know about the on-demand economy and what needs further investigation. More research is needed on the individual cases before one can draw conclusions on how this new sector works. The political economy of the sector is made even more interesting by the fact that the technology is developing faster than the regulation. Yet, our plea to policy-makers is to refrain from legislating too early and to take the time to understand how the supply and the demand of these services behave and their equilibrium.

Sermons on practical subjects: to which is added, a farewell discourse, delivered at Paisley in April and May 1768.

Mode of access: Internet.

The itinerary of John Leland in or about the years 1535-1543, parts I to [XI]

"Comparative table of the MSS. and editions": v. 1, p. [xxxvi]

A calm inquiry into the Scripture doctrine concerning the person of Christ : to which are annexed a brief review of the controversy between Bishop Horsley and Dr. Priestley and a summary of the various opinions entertained by Christians upon this subject /

Mode of access: Internet.

Observations on several parts of Great Britain, particularly the High-lands of Scotland, relative chiefly to picturesque beauty, made in the year 1776 /

Mode of access: Internet.

The prose works of Jonathan Swift /

Includes index.