FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Stilling Basin Scour Remediation Using Air Injection and Flat Plate Extension

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) is responsible for managing over 2500 miles of waterways and hundreds of water control structures. Many of these control structures are experiencing erosion, known as scour, of the sediment downstream of the structure. Laboratory experiments were conducted in order to investigate the effectiveness of two-dimensional air diffusers and plate extensions (without air injection) on a 1/30 scale model of one of SFWMD gated spillway structures, the S65E gated spillway. A literature review examining the results of similar studies was conducted. The experimental design for this research was based off of previous work done on the same model. Scour of the riverbed downstream of gated spillway structures has the potential to cause serious damage, as it can expose the foundation of the structure, which can lead to collapse. This type of scour has been studied previously, but it continues to pose a risk to water control structures and needs to be studied further. The hydraulic scour channel used to conduct experiments contains a head tank, flow straighteners, gated spillway, stilling basin, scour chamber, sediment trap, and tailwater tank. Experiments were performed with two types of air diffusers. The first was a hollow, acrylic, triangular end sill with air injection holes on the upstream face, allowing for air injection upstream. The second diffuser was a hollow, acrylic rectangle that extended from the triangular end sill with air injection holes in the top face, allowing for vertical air injection, perpendicular to flow. Detailed flow and bed measurements were taken for six trials for each diffuser ranging from no air injection to 5 rows of 70 holes of 0.04" diameter. It was found that with both diffusers, the maximum amount of air injection reduced scour the most. Detailed velocity measurements were taken for each case and turbulence statistics were analyzed to determine why air injection reduces scour. It was determined that air injection reduces streamwise velocity and turbulence. Another set of experiments was performed using an acrylic extension plate with no air injection to minimize energy costs. Ten different plate lengths were tested. It was found that the location of deepest scour moved further downstream with each plate length. The 32-cm plate is recommended here. Detailed velocity measurements were taken after the cases with the 32-cm plate and no plate had reached equilibrium. This was done to better understand the flow patterns in order to determine what causes the scour reduction with the extension plates. The extension plate reduces the volume of scour, but more importantly translates the deepest point of scour downstream from the structure, lessening the risk of damage.

EVALUATION OF NON-STATIONARITY IN ANNUAL MAXIMUM FLOOD SERIES OF MODERATELY IMPAIRED WATERSHEDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

United States federal agencies assess flood risk using Bulletin 17B procedures which assume annual maximum flood series are stationary. This represents a significant limitation of current flood frequency models as the flood distribution is thereby assumed to be unaffected by trends or periodicity of atmospheric/climatic variables and/or anthropogenic activities. The validity of this assumption is at the core of this thesis, which aims to improve understanding of the forms and potential causes of non-stationarity in flood series for moderately impaired watersheds in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern US. Prior studies investigated non-stationarity in flood series for unimpaired watersheds; however, as the majority of streams are located in areas of increasing human activity, relative and coupled impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors need to be considered such that non-stationary flood frequency models can be developed for flood risk forecasting over relevant planning horizons for large scale water resources planning and management.

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (λET) and evaporation (λEE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (λE), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on λET and λEE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, λET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on λET during the wet (rainy) seasons where λET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80 % of the variances of λET. However, biophysical control on λET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65 % of the variances of λET, and indicates λET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between λET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (?ET) and evaporation (?EE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (?E), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on ?ET and ?EE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, ?ET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on ?ET during the wet (rainy) seasons where ?ET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80?% of the variances of ?ET. However, biophysical control on ?ET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65?% of the variances of ?ET, and indicates ?ET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between ?ET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

Urban rural water exchange : PRW in the Lockyer Valley

A significant amount (ca. 15-25 GL/a) of PRW (Purified Recycled Water) from urban areas is foreseen as augmentation of the depleted groundwater resources of the Lockyer Valley (approx. 80 km west of Brisbane). Theresearch project uses field investigations, lab trials and modelling techniques to address the key challenges: (i) how to determine benefits of individual users from the augmentation of a natural common pool resource; (ii) how to minimise impacts of applying different quality water on the Lockyer soils, to creeks and on aquifier materials; (iii) how to minimuse mobilisation of salts in the unsaturated and saturated zones as a result of increased deep drainage; (iv) determination of potential for direct aquifer recharge using injection wells?

3D visualisation of groundwater/surface water systems as a planning and communication tool

Groundwater is increasingly recognised as an important yet vulnerable natural resource, and a key consideration in water cycle management. However, communication of sub-surface water system behaviour, as an important part of encouraging better water management, is visually difficult. Modern 3D visualisation techniques can be used to effectively communicate these complex behaviours to engage and inform community stakeholders. Most software developed for this purpose is expensive and requires specialist skills. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed by QUT integrates a wide range of surface and sub-surface data, to produce a 3D visualisation of the behaviour, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Surface data (elevation, surface water, land use, vegetation and geology) and data collected from boreholes (bore locations and subsurface geology) are combined to visualise the nature, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Time-series data (water levels, groundwater quality, rainfall, stream flow and groundwater abstraction) is displayed as an animation within the 3D framework, or graphically, to show water system condition changes over time. GVS delivers an interactive, stand-alone 3D Visualisation product that can be used in a standard PC environment. No specialised training or modelling skills are required. The software has been used extensively in the SEQ region to inform and engage both water managers and the community alike. Examples will be given of GVS visualisations developed in areas where there have been community concerns around groundwater over-use and contamination.

Assessment of Geogenic Contaminants in Water Co-Produced with Coal Seam Gas Extraction in Queensland, Australia : Implications for Human Health Risk

Organic compounds in Australian coal seam gas produced water (CSG water) are poorly understood despite their environmental contamination potential. In this study, the presence of some organic substances is identified from government-held CSG water-quality data from the Bowen and Surat Basins, Queensland. These records revealed the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 27% of samples of CSG water from the Walloon Coal Measures at concentrations <1 µg/L, and it is likely these compounds leached from in situ coals. PAHs identified from wells include naphthalene, phenanthrene, chrysene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene. In addition, the likelihood of coal-derived organic compounds leaching to groundwater is assessed by undertaking toxicity leaching experiments using coal rank and water chemistry as variables. These tests suggest higher molecular weight PAHs (including benzo[a]pyrene) leach from higher rank coals, whereas lower molecular weight PAHs leach at greater concentrations from lower rank coal. Some of the identified organic compounds have carcinogenic or health risk potential, but they are unlikely to be acutely toxic at the observed concentrations which are almost negligible (largely due to the hydrophobicity of such compounds). Hence, this study will be useful to practitioners assessing CSG water related environmental and health risk.

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Strategies for the management and treatment of coal seam gas associated water

Coal seam gas (CSG) is a growing industry in Queensland and represents a potential major employer and deliverer of financial prosperity for years to come. CSG is a natural gas composed primarily of methane and is found trapped underground in coal beds. During the gas extraction process, significant volumes of associated water are also produced. This associated water could be a valuable resource, however, the associated water comprises of various salt constituents that make it problematic for beneficial use. Consequently, there is a need to implement various water treatment strategies to purify the associated water to comply with Queensland’s strict guidelines and to mitigate environmental risks. The resultant brine is also of importance as ultimately it also has to be dealt with in an economical manner. In some ways it can be considered that the CSG industry does not face a water problem, as this has inherent value to society, but rather has a “salt issue” to solve. This study analyzes the options involved in both the water treatment and salt recovery processes. A brief overview of the constituents present in Queensland CS water is made to illustrate the challenges involved and a range of treatment technologies discussed. Water treatment technologies examined include clarification (ballasted flocculation, dissolved air flotation, electrocoagulation), membrane filtration (ultrafiltration), ion exchange softening and desalination (ion exchange, reverse osmosis desalination and capacitance deionization). In terms of brine management we highlighted reinjection, brine concentration ponds, membrane techniques (membrane distillation, forward osmosis), thermal methods, electrodialysis, electrodialysis reversal, bipolar membrane electrodialysis, wind assisted intensive evaporation, membrane crystallization, eutectic freeze crystallization and vapor compression. As an entirety this investigation is designed to be an important tool in developing CS water treatment management strategies for effective management in Queensland and worldwide.

Ground-water resources data of Charlotte, DeSoto, and Hardee Counties, Florida

Charlotte, De Soto, and Hardee counties are east-southeast of Tampa in west-central peninsular Florida, figure 1. In order to plan the future water-resource development of the area, information about the water resources is needed. To meet this need, the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Peace River Basin Board of the Southwest Florida Water Management District as part of the statewide cooperative program with the Division of Geology, Florida Board of Conservation, began a continuing hydrologic data collection program in July, 1963, as an initial step in the investigation and evaluation of the groundwater resources of Hardee and De Soto counties. A similar hydrologic data program commenced in Charlotte County in July, 1964. Previous work in Hardee and De Soto counties included a one year reconnaissance by the Division of Water Resources and Conservation, Florida Board of Conservation, which concluded in June, 1963, and resulted in a hydrologic report (Woodard, 1964). As an outgrowth of the hydrologic data program, a Map Series report portraying the chemical character of water in the Floridan aquifer in the southern Peace River basin was prepared in 1967 (Kaufman and Dion). The data contained herein constitute the basis for the Map Series report. Additional selected data, including records of wells and chemical analyses,, on the ground-water resources of the three county area are also included and are published to make the data available. (Document has 28 pages.)

Sustainable utilization of inland water resources: an integrated program for research and management

In both developed and developing countries, there is increased competition for water resources, resulting in deficiencies in supply and in various forms of pollution. In developing countries, the nutritional potential of aquatic resources is very important. To realize this potential, integrated research and management for sustainable water resource use are needed. This requires a sound understanding of the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. A programme is presented which stresses the interrelationships of the physical, chemical and biological components of aquatic systems and their catchments. The programme consists of 16 stages in 5 phases, which are as follows: System description; System functioning and modelling; Resource assessment/dynamics; Resource potential; and, Resource utilization for sustainability. This programme enables workers within different disciplines to identify how their expertise contributes to the overall research requirements to support resource development.

Assessment of natural resource conditions in and adjacent to Dry Tortugas National Park

This project characterized and assessed the condition of coastal water resources in the Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) located in the Florida Keys. The goal of the assessment was to: (1) identify the state of knowledge of natural resources that exist within the DRTO, (2) summarize the state of knowledge about natural and anthropogenic stressors and threats that affected these resources, and (3) describe strategies being implemented by DRTO managers to meet their resource management goals. The park, located in the Straits of Florida 113 km (70 miles) west of Key West, is relatively small (269 square kilometers) with seven small islands and extensive shallow water coral reefs. Significant natural resources within DRTO include coastal and oceanic waters, coral reefs, reef fisheries, seagrass beds, and sea turtle and bird nesting habitats. This report focuses on marine natural resources identified by DRTO resource managers and researchers as being vitally important to the Tortugas region and the wider South Florida ecosystem. Selected marine resources included physical resources (geology, oceanography, and water quality) and biological resources (coral reef and hardbottom benthic assemblages, seagrass and algal communities, reef fishes and macro invertebrates, and wildlife [sea turtles and sea-birds]). In the past few decades, some of these resources have deteriorated because of natural and anthropogenic factors that are local and global in scale. To meet mandated goals (Chapter 1), resource managers need information on: (1) the types and condition of natural and cultural resources that occur within the park and (2) the stressors and threats that can affect those resources. This report synthesizes and summarizes information on: (1) the status of marine natural resources occurring at DRTO; and (2) types of stressors and threats currently affecting those resources at the DRTO. Based on published information, the assessment suggests that marine resources at DRTO and its surrounding region are affected by several stressors, many of which act synergistically. Of the nine resource components assessed, one resource category – water quality – received an ecological condition ranking of "Good"; two components – the nonliving portion of coral reef and hardbottom and reef fishes – received a rating of "Caution"; and two components – the biotic components of coral reef and hardbottom substrates and sea turtles – received a rating of "Significant concern" (Table E-1). Seagrass and algal communities and seabirds were unrated for ecological condition because the available information was inadequate. The stressor category of tropical storms was the dominant and most prevalent stressor in the Tortugas region; it affected all of the resource components assessed in this report. Commercial and recreational fishing were also dominant stressors and affected 78% of the resource components assessed. The most stressed resource was the biotic component of coral reef and hardbottom resources, which was affected by 76% of the stressors. Water quality was the least affected; it was negatively affected by 12% of stressors. The systematic assessment of marine natural resources and stressors in the Tortugas region pointed to several gaps in the information. For example, of the nine marine resource components reviewed in this report, the living component of coral reefs and hardbottom resources had the best rated information with 25% of stressor categories rated "Good" for information richness. In contrast, the there was a paucity of information for seagrass and algal communities and sea birds resource components.